Quote:EDITS | Saturday, February 20, 2010 | Email | Print |





Preparing for battle in 2014



Ashok Malik



Despite the lyrical enthusiasm at the BJP’s national executive in Indore, the fact remains national politics is going through a bit of a ‘phoney war’ interregnum. The UPA Government is not quite living up to its mandate of 2009 and has not shown urgency in crucial areas, ranging from military hardware upgrade to economic reforms. Yet, the fact remains the Opposition is too wrapped up in crises of its own to take advantage.



To the BJP’s credit, it has probably bottomed out after a fairly forgettable 2009. For the CPI(M), the other coherent all-India party, the worst is perhaps yet to come. The expected defeat in Kerala and West Bengal in 2011 — particularly in the eastern State that has been a Communist bastion for over three decades — will unleash convulsions of its own. As such, the momentum is with the Congress and as long as rivals such as the Shiv Sena continue to score self-goals or hand over a walkover, this is unlikely to change.



Also, the next Lok Sabha election is four years away. Nobody has a clue as to what issues will dominate the voter’s mind in the summer of 2014. Going by recent experience, perceptions in the weeks running up to voting day — rather than any longer term call — have swung mandates. For the moment, with the promise of three years of robust economic growth and with Mr Rahul Gandhi as the mascot for the post-2014 future, the Congress is fancying its chances. To quite an extent this appears justified. However, when the next general election takes place, the party would also be defending 10 years of incumbency. That would surely throw up some challenges and hostility.



India sees an important State election almost every year. Bihar in the winter of 2010 and West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the first half of 2011 are the upcoming ones. Other than Kerala, the Congress doesn’t really have a stake in this quartet. In Bihar, it is in rebuilding mode and will seek to hurt the BJP’s upper caste base and prise away more Muslims from Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav’s grasp. However, the Congress is not yet a serious contender for office and it will take a miracle for Mr Gandhi and his local lieutenants to deny Mr Nitish Kumar a second term.



In West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the Congress is dependent on its allies. Here, the party and its partners are banking on the defeatism that has gripped the Left Front and the near withdrawal from effective politics of Ms Jayalalithaa. It is understood the Congress also has long-term plans for both States, ones that see it growing independent of difficult allies in Kolkata and Chennai, but that’s a story for some distant tomorrow. It has no immediate relevance.



The State election that will truly signal the countdown to 2014 will be the contest for Uttar Pradesh in 2012. For the moment, it looks to be a two-horse race between the BSP and the Congress. The Samajwadi Party has lost ground; the BJP is contemplating finishing fourth. Without a weighty performance in Uttar Pradesh — say 20 to 25 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats — the BJP will be severely handicapped in any Government formation exercise in 2014. The Assembly election two years before that will indicate whether its revival in the State is a practicable reality or just fantasy.



For the Congress, Uttar Pradesh will be its truest test yet of the Rahul phenomenon. Ms Mayawati has had a mixed record as Chief Minister but retains strong support among Dalits and sections of Brahmins and Muslims. The Congress’s recent adventurism in Azamgarh stems from a feeling that it is not as well placed in Poorvanchal (eastern Uttar Pradesh) as in Avadh in the centre of the State or in the western belt.



It will not be an easy election but if the Congress succeeds in unseating the BSP, it would have scored a big, big victory and cleared several potential obstacles on the road to 2014. On the other hand, if Ms Mayawati manages to hold on and checks the Nehru-Gandhi comeback, she would have to be factored into any plans to put together an anti-Congress front for the next Lok Sabha battle. Of course she will bargain, and bargain hard. Her potential allies — including the BJP — could have to settle for fairly humiliating terms.



If Mr Nitish Kumar demonstrates success in Patna and if Ms Mayawati retains substantial influence, if not power, in Lucknow, then the broad contours of an Opposition front may just be visible. Along with such non-Congress State heavyweights as Mr Naveen Patnaik in Odisha, this duo could come together to agree on a nominee in New Delhi, without in any way conceding autonomy or space in their individual provinces.



What will such a scenario, if it occurs, mean for the BJP? Roughly speaking, its best bet will be to emerge as a surprise winner in the manner of the Congress in 2004. It will no doubt have its own set of regional chieftains and State Governments — maybe Rajasthan too will be won back in December 2013 — but will have to present itself as a middle-of-the-road, non-ideological entity that can contribute to and maybe even lead a common minimum Government.



There is an alternative framework, though its likelihood is small. What happens if the security situation in India’s near-neighbourhood, in Afghanistan-Pakistan, turns catastrophic? If American troops truly depart and hand a victory to the Taliban? If the implication is a holy war waged against, and unremitting terror waged in, India? In that case, the mood in 2014 will be very different and the BJP will have to focus on a more muscular agenda.



However, while worst-case scenarios should not be forgotten, they must not become obsessions either. As things stand, the BJP has to re-package itself as the adhesive that binds together a non-Congress front, and hope the fates — and the voters — are kind to it in four years. That is the message the party and its stakeholders must absorb, never mind the rhetoric Indore or outdoor.



-- malikashok@gmail.com

Quote:C O M M E N T A R Y



Game's over

Contrary to conventional thinking, early elections cannot be ruled out, analyses N.V.Subramanian.



29 June 2011: In the middle of the Anna Hazare-Baba Ramdev campaigns a few weeks ago, Nitish Kumar dismissed the possibility of mid-term elections. His reasoning was simple but cynical. Joining the government remained strongly attractive for those outside it.



J.Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, seems of a mind that there may be mid-term elections. She is not certain about it like Nitish Kumar is definite UPA II will complete its term. But she does not overrule the possibility of early polls.



Who is right or more likely to be correct?



Jayalalithaa.



Nitish Kumar conveys the conventional wisdom against early polls. Most political parties and leaders (save Jayalalithaa) hew to this line. The only other politician to speak on the subject recently was L.K.Advani, and he said previous to Nitish that UPA II would have to be suffered till 2014.



The conventional wisdom is based on the fact that fifty-nine per cent of the 15th Lok Sabha MPs are first-timers. They have spent large sums to get elected (that is not very politically correct to say in these times of a new expressed fondness for parliamentary democracy by those same villains who subvert it), and they are determined to stay so for the full five years of their term.



But MPs are also grouped into political parties, by and large. Some are in the government, some outside. Some belong to the principal ruling party, some to the regional allies. And so on.



While their collective voice matters, they are also likely to be fragmented by the choices made by their respective political parties. They cannot en masse quit their parent parties and join the Congress to remain elected.



So let us begin with the proposition that though first-time MPs are a powerful factor against early elections, they cannot override other developments. For example, a UPA coalition partner gets both power and protection by remaining in the UPA, which is why the DMK ostensibly is supporting the government.



But if you look closely, especially in the aftermath of Kanimozhi's imprisonment, the situation has changed. The Congress leadership says it has no hand in Kanimozhi's incarceration, and that it is a matter between the Supreme Court and the CBI.



If that is the case, what does the DMK gain by being allied with the UPA?



Power? But what use is power when the DMK patriarch's daughter is in Tihar, and is being refused bail week after week? <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



A reset in DMK thinking about the Congress/ UPA may come soon, if it is not already a little evident in the manner of realignments within the BJP's Murli Manohar Joshi-led PAC.



As all those who follow the dismal news headlines know, the DMK and BSP of Mayawati have come to the side of Joshi in his doughty battles against a corrupt and scheming Congress establishment in the 2G scandal. If the DMK, BSP, the NCP (which dissociated itself from the diesel price-hike decision), etc, see no gain remaining associated with the UPA, what would the likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav get by joining the government if its parliamentary numbers fall short? <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



So Nitish Kumar's argument that the draw of power and gained protection will keep UPA II going with its allies falls on the wayside. Now consider the emergence of other factors that are battering the UPA.



The Supreme Court has taken over the 2G and black money (Hasan Ali) investigations. The government is powerless to protect the 2G crooks, and more will face exposure soon. One top Union minister is on the way to getting implicated. Separately, the credibility of the government has been destroyed by Anna Hazare.



What is left of the executive, then, is a shell presided over by a powerless prime minister called Manmohan Singh. Only a bankrupt government will plan a PR rescue for a virtually non-existent prime minister.



In truth, there is nothing remotely resembling a government today at the Centre. This corpse of government is being attacked by body-snatchers from the Congress, led by the likes of Digvijay Singh. <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



So why should this farce continue? Frankly, it needs a single pullout by a major ally for the government to collapse.



Significantly, Jayalalithaa has indicated no desire to be part of the present Centre, barely being able to hide her disdain for it. That may be a cue for the DMK to pull out. Who knows?



This writer does not think a collapse is imminent. But it cannot be dismissed out of hand. The circumstances seem to be building towards a mid-term election, and there are all the signs that the Manmohan Singh government/ Congress party have few friends left across the political spectrum.



In all objectivity, the game seems to be over for the UPA.