Congress May Call For Mid Term Poll

07-11-2005, 12:21 AM

QUOTENeeded, a full-time Prime Minister 
Arun Nehru
A great deal of political turmoil is taking place, and I wonder if this has anything to do with potential changes in the future. The Left and the Congress have disagreed to agree on several issues in the past.

But, for the first time, it seems the Left under the new leadership of Mr Prakash Karat means business. It also has the support of regional parties like the DMK and the RJD on the issue of disinvestment. This resurgence of the Left has brought the Right-wing economic team under considerable pressure.

In Bihar, things are quite fluid for the country's ruling dispensation. After all, the relations between the UPA allies - the RJD, the LJP and the Congress - continue to remain on slippery ground. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress-JD(S) alliance is on the verge of breaking because of the former's attempt to belittle Mr HD Deve Gowda. But it is not easy to sideline the JD(S) leader, who, in all probability, will act as a "major" partner in the Third Front.

The situation is no better in Andhra Pradesh where the Congress-TRS alliance is under severe pressure because of the resignation of five TRS ministers from the Y Rajshekhar Reddy Government. Things will certainly go out of control if remedial measures are not taken soon. In Maharashtra, similarly, the Congress-NCP alliance has come under strain. Complicating the picture further is the NCP's attempt to gain ground at the cost of the Shiv Sena, which in turn is going through dynastic squabbles. The problem in the Shiv Sena erupted after Mr Narayan Rane resigned from the party.

Things in Tamil Nadu can hardly be described as "smooth". There is not much to choose between the DMK and the ADMK, and as elections draw near, the former is bound to get closer to the Left to pressure the Congress. We are not looking at individual cases of dissent, but at "interests" of the UPA partners within the coalition structure. This attitude of the allies will harden as they see greater possibilities of forming the Third Front.

The only factor that can sustain and ensure the continuity of the UPA Government with Mr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister is the ability of the Congress to maintain its present Lok Sabha tally and grow beyond 145 seats. But this looks quite improbable going by the current trend of popular disenchantment against the party.

The key to the Congress's success, of course, lies in Uttar Pradesh where both the Congress and the BJP have suffered huge electoral reverses. Despite all the deliberations and chintan baithaks of the mainstream national parties, the State continues to remain under the control of regional parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party.

It is basically the differences between "key" leaders in the regional parties that inhibit the formation of the Third front. But in a coalition structure, it is the "numbers" that prevail. If one or two major States change hands, as they did in 2004, then things may alter dramatically. Something is definitely wrong with the political planning of the ruling dispensation as disputes and confrontation mark the relations of the Congress with virtually each one of its allies, beginning with the CPI(M). Likewise the Congress's relations with the NCP, TRS, RJD, JMM, DMK, JD(S) are no better.

Things are quite fluid, but one can draw conclusions of the likely election results in different States that are going to polls in the near future. The Left will sweep both Kerala and West Bengal, where Trinamool Congress will be the runners-up. Meanwhile the BJP is likely to stage a comeback in Uttaranchal. The Akali Dal has advantage in Punjab, while the BJP-AGP combine holds the upper hand in Assam. In Tamil Nadu, there is stiff competition between the DMK and ADMK. Then, there is Bihar where the RJD, the LJP and the BJP-led NDA alliance will fight for honours. The Congress has negligible presence in the State and may win just 10 out of 80 seats that it will be allowed to contest.

The electoral reverses in these States can well result in the appointment of a new Prime Minister and Finance Minister, since it is no secret that both Human Resource Development Minister Arjun Singh and Minister for Foreign Affairs K Natwar Singh are serious contenders for the post of prime ministership. However, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee must be the front-runner on the basis of sheer experience, maturity and performance. Home Minister Shivraj Patil too cannot be ruled out. <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='ohmy.gif' />

Election reverses have to be blamed on someone to ensure the continuity of the "dynasty" and the economic policy, which is clearly "favourable" to the upper and middle classes. Pressure is already building up as events in 2005 are leading to a confrontation between the Congress and several of its allies. Things in 2006/07 will only get worse with Assembly elections in several States.

The Congress and the BJP got, between them, 280 seats in 2004. I think the two parties' tally will shrink to 240-250 seats, while the "others" will go up from 260 seats to between 280-300 seats. There will, therefore, be space for Prime Minister from the "others" category in the near future. However, this will happen only if the regional parties get together to share power at the Centre. The Congress will always have a better chance of acceptance even with fewer seats, whereas the BJP, with the looming shadow of the RSS behind it, will not be acceptable to the regional forces.

On the international front, the abusive remarks by then US President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger are not at all surprising and reflect the arrogance and attitudes adopted by the two superpowers during the Cold War. I was quite amused to see the apology tendered by Mr Henry Kissinger. 

All this is now a part of the past. As I have earlier observed on the Jinnah issue, we should not be obsessed by the past. There are lessons to be learnt from it as we step into the future. The reality is that everything was done to hurt and humiliate then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. President Nixon had kept her waiting beyond the time given for the appointment. Unfortunately, the US kept propping up an Army dictator in Islamabad when a million refugees poured into India due to religious persecution in the then East Pakistan.

Worse, the US sent its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise to frighten India and I must admit that I am a little surprised that the then US President thought that he could bully India and its Prime Minister into submission. The genocide that followed in East Pakistan was, in fact, the result of the US policy. I remember those days when I was living in Kolkata and watched with horror the images of the killings of innocent people - nearly 200,000 people were slaughtered by the Pakistan Army, till the Indian forces moved in to liberate Bangladesh.

The Western world blatantly ignored the warnings and it is sad that the genocide went unpunished. It seems, the slaughter in Bangladesh did not warrant any trial in the International Court of Justice or even with the War Crimes Tribunal. This is the tragedy of the Third World and the appalling attitude of the West continues till today, especially towards genocide in many parts of Africa.

We have excellent relations with the US, which are based on mutual need and reciprocity. I think US President George W Bush reflected the current mood as he praised Mrs Indira Gandhi. The response of the Government in India, therefore, shows maturity. The Left has already voiced its objection on "several" agreements initiated between India and the US. This is unfortunate as partners in a "coalition" are expected to discuss and then frame policies. Clearly, something is wrong in the system. We need a full-time Prime Minister.

ramana · 07-19-2005, 03:11 AM

More from Deccan.com 18 July 2005
QUOTESudarshan might call for open revolt
By Siddhartha Reddy

These are strange days for Indiaâs politics. On the one hand is the ruling Congressâ inability to reshuffle the Cabinet, and on the other is the Sangh Parivarâs inability to refashion the party. Manmohan Singh is avoiding swearing in Sonia Gandhiâs wish-list and Advani is resisting caving in to Sudarshanâs directive.

It will be wrong to assume that the RSS wants Advaniâs head only because he praised Jinnah. After the NDA lost the Lok Sabha elections last year, the RSS told Vajpayee and Advani to retire and to ready a new team for the next elections. But they insisted on hanging around ignoring numerous hints from the RSS, and even Sudarshanâs public utterances in April this year.

Then the dramatic Jinnah strategy was evolved to help Advani metamorphose as a secular figure, gain NDA acceptability and thus pressurise the RSS to allow Advani to continue as president. So that, after the Bihar elections, he could become PM by toppling Manmohan Singh .

But the RSS is merciless in its determination to oust Advani. In the process it wants to scare the others who would dare to follow in his footsteps. As for Advani, instead of begging the RSS for an extension, he should chart a brave new path. If Advani courageously fights the RSS, then most BJP leaders will desert him, but the centrists outside the BJP will gravitate to support him. Many political activists want Indiaâs politics to be completely de-communalised. They perceive Advaniâs enmity with the RSS as an opportunity to build a national centrist political party to isolate the RSS, the Congress, the Communists, the RJD, the Muslim League etc.

Mahatma Gandhi always breathed âRamâ yet offered Jinnah prime ministership. The Mahatma was deeply religious yet secular. Advani doesnât yet possess the credibility to survive by chanting Jinnah and Ram in the same breath. But he must stay centrist, then only India will respond to him. As much as the Congress is owned by the Gandhi Dynasty, the BJP is owned by the RSS Parivar.

The Congress Dynasty is like a single family where Sonia Gandhi is the sole decision maker, so decisions are taken fast. In the RSS parivar the supreme five have to agree. Until they arrive at a consensus, decision making is impossible. Hence it takes time. The parivar functions like the Hindu joint family: consults everybody, hurts nobody, the accused is reprimanded, given time to repent, made to fall in line, else, cut to size.

The Congressâ decision-making is speedily surgical while that of the RSS is slow physiotherapy. Sonia Gandhi took 15 minutes to replace Sitaram Kesri. It has been 15 months, yet Sudarshan is stuck with Advani. Sonia picked Manmohan in a few hours. Sudarshan would take a fortnight to decide on Advaniâs replacement.

The BJP structure is like that of a modern electricity corporation. Financial holding, electricity generation and distribution are handled by three separate companies: RSS is the apex, BJP president is the CEO of the political wing, the mid-level leaders, the MPs and MLAs are from the BJP. Workers and their supervisors are from the RSS.

The RSS-BJP interaction is in-house, but other political parties and the media wrongly assume that the RSS is an outsider, interfering in the BJPâs affairs. Advaniâs isolation is so complete that he didnât find a single senior BJP leader to plead on his behalf. Instead he used George Fernandes to ask Sudarshan to allow Advani to continue.

The Surat conclave was unanimous that Advani must quit. Sudarshan sent his next-in-command Mohan Bhagwat to deliver the directive. Advani requested him not to make the directive public and said that he would resign on his own, soon. When informed of Advaniâs request, Sudarshan demonstrated tremendous statesmanship, ensuring that the RSS directive to Advani isnât disclosed. Having obtained precious time, Advani has a choice: to exit gracefully or to outwit the RSS.

Advani can successfully woo Karunanidhi, convincing him that the only way to win the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections is by becoming Prime Minister and appealing to Tamil pride. Thus after toppling the UPA, and with its government in control, Advani can resist RSS pressure. Only Karunanidhi can save Advani.

Advani is seeking time till the Bihar elections, expecting Nitish to deliver a victory. Then he can claim that people endorsed his presidency and the RSS has no right to remove him. Thus, he wonât retire until the Lok Sabha elections. But the UPA will extend Biharâs Presidentâs Rule in the Monsoon Session of Parliament and Bihar elections will be in February with that of Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal and Kerala. Advaniâs continuance when the RSS is against him, wonât help the BJP in Bihar. The RSS believes that a new president replacing Advani will energise the BJP in Bihar.

Electoral verdict cannot alter ideology. Hindu voice or secular attitude cannot be abandoned because of victory or defeat. So seeking Advaniâs continuance until Bihar elections is meaningless Advani could of course challenge RSSâ superiority over BJP, saying itâs time to determine who has the right to decide who will be president and till when. But the truth is, since the creation of the Jan Sangh in 1951, the president has always been appointed in consultation with the RSS.

But Sudarshan must also prove that this isnât an RSS versus Advani battle. On July 20, at RSSâ Nagpur meet, Sudarshan will speak again. Either he will forgive Advani or urge the BJP to overthrow him. Will Advaniâs repeated defiance make Sudarshan force his exit? Or will Advani dramatically abdicate?

The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com

07-19-2005, 07:27 AM

This Reddy is a convert fellow who is dishing out hatred against Hindus all the time. Why is that the so called political activists only quote RSS/Hindus when they talk about decommunalization but never talk about Islamic fundamentalism? That itself shows the biased nature of these p-sec rogues. No leader can kick out his own constituency after attaining certain position. That is exactly what these p-sec commies are asking Hadvani to do, true to their treacherous nature. Can one person in India claim that Hadvani would have won the constituency in Gujarat if he talked about Jinnah as a secularist?

07-25-2005, 05:42 AM

BIG MOUTH!......

As Cong weakens, time ripe for new alignment: Amar 
Pioneer News Service/ New Delhi

Samajwadi Party strongly feels that after one year of UPA rule at the Centre, the Congress is fast losing its support base across the nation making the emergence of a third alternative inevitable.

Strident in his criticism of the Congress, Mr Singh has said that the Congress' popularity has declined rapidly in the states it is ruling and its situation has gone from bad to worse in states where it is in the Opposition.

"Look at Andhra Pradesh. The Congress has become so unpopular there that anytime elections are held there, Chandrababu Naidu is bound to stage a spectacular comeback," he said.

"Similarly, in Bihar, the situation for the Congress is equally pathetic as the next Assembly elections is going to see a direct fight between the NDA and the RJD," he said, adding, "in West Bengal, the fight is going to be between the Trinamool Congress and the Left Front."

Mr Singh saw no future for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh where it has launched a virtual crusade against the Samajwadi Party. "Let them say what they want to say about the Mulayam Singh Government. It is not going to improve their situation in any way," he asserted.

Mr Singh was equally critical of the BJP, saying it was in shambles with the RSS trying to dictate the course of its politics. "The soul of the BJP, which is the RSS, is now questioning the integrity of the party president, and the BJP leaders are unsure whether to go with the Sangh or the party. It is a ridiculous situation," he said.

"The nation's politics is headed for a new experiment. The support base of the Congress and the BJP are eroding and the thrust of political discourse is going to move away from the divisive communal-secular line," said Mr Singh.

Claiming that the debate on "communalism" and secularism has become a joke, Mr Singh pointed out many of the parties like the DMK, PMK and MDMK, and the LJP, which were part of the NDA government, have today come under the umbrella of the UPA. "I see no reason, why these parties could not be part of an alternative alliance once again when the opportunity arises. The Congress attempt to make them toe its line in the name of secularism is not going to work any more," he said.

Mr Singh said that both the BJP and the Congress were engaging in votebank politics and were ignoring the core concern of the common man. "The common man is today disillusioned. He feels cheated. The time is ripe for a new realignment," he said, without explaining how and when it will happen.

Clarifying that he was not talking about the formation of any anti-Congress or anti-BJP poll front, Mr Singh said that in the days ahead, these two national parties were going to be so badly marginalised that they could be easily excluded from any exercise at of formation of a third and stable government at the Centre.

ramana · 08-04-2005, 02:36 AM

Right on cue, Naidu makes some moves
From Deccan Chronicle. 4 August 005
QUOTENaidu to discuss 3rd Front with other parties
Â

Hyderabad, Aug. 3: Days after rebuffing the Communist Party of Indiaâs overtures, Telugu Desam president N. Chandrababu Naidu is believed to have decided to meet heads of regional parties in the near future, sensing that the mood was right. Though a specific schedule as not been worked out, party sources said Mr Naidu will meet Omar Abdullah (National Conference), Om Prakash Chautala (INLD), Naveen Patnaik (BJD) and Samajwadi Partyâs Mulayam Singh Yadav to discuss the possibilities of forming a platform for anti-Congress anti-BJP front.

The idea got a fillip with the Shiromani Akali Dal chief Prakash Singh Badal proposing to Mr Naidu that he resume politics at the national level. Mr Badal called on the TD supremo at his residence on Tuesday night. Party sources said both the leaders felt the need for a third front and Mr Badal even suggested that Mr Naidu should lead it.

âIt is a pre-planned meeting between the two leaders. In fact, it is part of our three-phased strategy, which has entered the second stage,â a senior TD leader told this correspondent. The first phase includes floor coordination meetings in Parliament with parties which were aligned with BJP at some stage but are attempting to distance themselves from the NDA.

âThe second stage is to meet leaders of these parties and the final stage is formation of third front with not only former NDA allies but with like-minded anti-Congress and anti-BJP forces as well,â a senior party politburo member said. Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) senior leaders flew in from Guwahati to meet Mr Naidu during his last trip to New Delhi, he said. The TD leadership, however, was of the view that the picture would emerge clearer after the elections in Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Assam which are due next year, and Bihar in November. âThe Janata Dal (U) will fit into our fold but it is heavily depending on the BJP in Bihar and cannot sever ties with it immediately,â a senior party leader and Rajya Sabha member said.

08-04-2005, 07:39 AM

In AP both TDP and BJP are testing their individual strengths. These are just municipal elections and they want to see their independent strengths. I beleive that is all. I wouldn't be surprised if they again have electoral adjustments during the next assembly elections or Loksabha elections.

In the changed political and economic scenario of AP, TDP is not too strong as it used to be and cannot anymore play left oriented politics. In other words, it is impossible for communist parties of AP to align with TDP for the following reasons:

1) TDP is weak in Telangana where communists and BJP are having some influence on voters.
2) Naxals are anti-TDP and soft on communist parties. For this reason alone communists cannot align with TDP.
3) Communist votes in other parts of AP is very negligible to even consider.

Regarding Muslim votes:
1) There is about 2% of Muslims in other parts of AP other than Hyderabad. The Muslim votes goes to either congress or MIM.
2) By not aligning with BJP the number of Muslim votes that TDP can get will not translate into number of seats.

Regarding Christian votes:
Christians of AP are mostly converted from SC communities. This section are traditionally aligned to congress even during NTR waves.

Hence TDP has to either go alone or align with BJP in case of close context. Trying for any other combination in my opinion is going to be disastorous for TDP because there is a possibility of losing its base(Middle castes + backward classes). BJP has taken a chunk of TDP's base not any other's base.

Revival of the third front is really difficult until both BJP and Congress wins less than 100 each. Each state has it's own local political cofiguration that will not allow a independent third front.

08-05-2005, 12:53 AM

It is perhaps a good thing for BJP for third front evolve. The third front is likely take away Congress votebanks than BJP making BJP to come to power even if it doesn't increase its voting percentage than last time.

In each state in one form or the other there is a strong third front or, in other words, 3-way fighting in elections. If the third front evolves into National level as loose-knit party comprising the regional parties, it is a good for the country.

I beleive in that scenario the politicians fight each other with nobody is getting powerful leaving them not to meddle in economic affairs. The country can grow naturally with at least 7+%

ramana · 08-23-2005, 02:09 AM

This guy keeps writing about this mid term poll strategy. Please analzye it before dissing it. From Deccan Chronicle, 23 Aug., 2005
QUOTEWill Sonia opt for mid-term poll?
By Siddhartha Reddy

This week, Lok Sabha MPs better take a good look at Parliament House; it might be their last before a surprise general election. Immediately after the Bihar elections inÂ the third week of November, and just before Parliamentâs winter session begins on November 20, chances are that the Lok Sabha will be dissolved on November 19 (Indira Gandhiâs birthday), facilitating fresh mid-term polls in early February 2006.

Sonia Gandhiâs version of Indira Gandhiâs Garibi Hatao programme is the rural employment guarantee scheme, designed to generate vote. It will fool some voters initially, but gradually it will degenerate into just another scheme to line the pockets of a few. Before that happens, a good monsoon, a bountiful agricultural production and the current mess in the BJP might goad the Congress to go for a mid-term poll.

Lok Sabha MPs never decide on the dissolution of Parliament, but the party presidentâs Rajya Sabha advisers do. Snap polls will happen if the Communists withdraw support, allies migrate but fail to form an alternate government with BJPâs outside support, or if the Congress seeks a bigger mandate.

The Communists are now occupying the space generally occupied by Opposition parties. They wield absolute power without any responsibility. Policies are being âretailoredâ to fit the Communist design. They have hijacked governance. Congress has conceded Bengal, Kerala and Tripura as ransom. The Communists have excellent rapport with Sonia Gandhi and will never rock the boat. In case of an early poll, they could gain 10 seats or lose 20.

As for the Congressâ other allies, most are happy for they are dominating their home States and marginalising the Congress. They have unquestioned authority in their ministries. Resource mobilisation is on in full swing. They are being wooed every day by a desperate Opposition, keen to secure new allies to form an alternate government. So they are quite keen for this situation to continue for five years. But allies like the JMM and Ajit Singh who are busy lobbying to be part of the Cabinet, are not averse to early polls. TRS, helpless in determining policy, wonât win a single seat and therefore fears elections and will merge into the Congress just before the polls.

Leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Chandrababu Naidu, George Fernandes, Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Parkash Singh Badal, Om Prakash Chautala and Farooq Abdullah would welcome a mid-term poll. They are expecting to win 55, 25, 15, 12, 9, 8 and 4 seats respectively. Jayalalithaa, who would prefer to delink Lok Sabha from the Assembly polls, is confident of winning 30 seats. After losing to Jayalalithaa in the Assembly polls of May 2006, Karunanidhi might go with the new BJP (Karunanidhi refuses to deal with Advani-led BJP), before July 2006 monsoon
session to form an alternate government at the Centre, after gaining support from Mulayam, Pawar, Paswan, Gowda, Ajit Singh and TRS. Destabilisation could lead to 2006-2007 winter mid-term elections. By then if petrol prices cross Rs 60 per litre and diesel Rs 40, voters will defeat the Congress.

This winter the RSS will remove Advani from the party presidentâs post and install a parivar friendly leader. But the BJP will not be battle ready before the end of 2006 even if it gets a new leader. At present the party is in a mess and this confusion will continue for months. It will lose many seats in the States where it is in a direct fight with the Congress. It will register a zero in UP, losing to Mulayam and Mayawati, to Gowda and Bangarappa in Karnataka, to Lalu in Bihar. It will lose in Orissa and Punjab to the Congress. In Maharashtra (except Mumbai), the Shiv Senaâs disintegration will create a Congress-NCP wave.

In case there is a snap-poll in winter, Soniaâs advisers expect the Congress to win 200 seats: Andhra 30, Rajasthan 22, Maharashtra 20 (not Mumbai seats), Madhya Pradesh 14, Gujarat 12, Punjab 9, Jharkhand 7, Orissa 7, Assam 8, Bengal 6, Kerala 5, Chhattisgarh 5, Karnataka 6, Himachal 3, Uttaranchal 3, Haryana 3. Two each in Tamil Nadu, J&K, Arunachal, Meghalaya, Manipur, Bihar and Goa; and one each in Chandigarh, Pondicherry, Dadra Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Andaman, Lakshadweep. In Uttar Pradesh, Sonia Gandhi is forging a Congress-Mayawati-Ajit Singh alliance, and is expecting to win 20, 20, 10 seats respectively.

After the mid-term poll, the Congress (200) can form a government with the Communists (60 plus) and the BSP (20 plus), keeping other allies out of the government. The Congress needs Mayawati to defeat Mulayam in Uttar Pradeshâs Assembly elections.

But the Congress is undecided on a mid-term poll leadership. Manmohan Singh and the voters do not share any chemistry. It is only the rich who donât vote, who approve of Manmohan. He will not get the Muslim or Hindu vote, or the vote of the farmers, workers and the lower middle-classes. He has not devised any economic programme to eradicate poverty. Nor has he taken any initiative to address problems related to education, health, housing, road, water etc. But projecting any non-dynasty person would marginalise the dynasty and Rahul does not yet have acceptability. So the Congress will project Sonia Gandhi as PM, confident that its allies would come round after the elections.

However, the Congress cannot succeed in a mid-term poll with the leaders it has in the Cabinet and AICC.Â Mid-term poll requires preparation. In September at the AICC plenary session, Sonia Gandhi will once again become Congress president and will announce vote-mobilising programmes. She will overhaul the CWC, AICC, Union and State Cabinets. She will replace the chief ministers of Uttaranchal, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Assam.

After her US trip, she will finalise State-specific strategies on issues, alliances and campaign rhetoric, and Lok Sabha candidates after poll announcement. Until then, the Congress will deny poll plans. The Bihar results of November 15 are crucial. If Nitish Kumar wins, Sonia Gandhi will shelve mid-term poll plans. But a RJD-Congress victory will make her go ahead with her plans.

The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com



There are reports that Cong wants to run with RJD while hunting with Paswan to prevent Nitish Kumar. The news from Bihar is Lallu is not favored to return. But then he has defied many experts before.

08-23-2005, 04:45 AM

Tango, Alpha, Charlie; Will the plan:f*(k ?
Sonia Gandhi cancels her US visit
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ MONDAY, AUGUST 22, 2005 11:41:59 PM ]

Sign into earnIndiatimes points

NEW DELHI: Sonia Gandhi's trip to the US is off. Last week, the Congress party sent its regrets to the Clinton Foundation in New York. The foundation would have been her main host for a conference of world leaders.

The official reason is that the visit from September 10-17 would clash with an AICC session and a Congress chief ministers' conclave. In fact, however, the rescheduling has been necessitated by the concern to avoid giving offence to the Republican establishment in the US with which the Manmohan Singh government has important business to do.
While in New York she would have been the guest of former US president Bill Clinton's NGO. She was also scheduled to visit Washington DC and had put in a request to meet US president George Bush. 
But someone, somewhere discovered that the 'optics' of the visit would be curious particularly since the leading light of the Clinton Foundation is Clinton's Indian American buddy, Sant Singh Chatwal, owner of Indian restaurant chain Bombay Palace.
Besides, there are problems with Chatwal himself. Although the high-profile restauranteur has got the red carpet treatment here earlier, the reappearance of some old cases against him renders his company an embarrassment risk.
The Congress chief appreciated the view in the government that it would have been odd for her to travel on a Democrat invite and then want to meet the Republican Bush. The Republican tango with India is now well known as Bush has gone the extra mile to sign a path-breaking nuclear agreement with India.

08-23-2005, 08:27 PM

Sonia will never call for a mid term election. Only if some UPA allie with good number of MP's withdraws support, will this happen. Many people here do not realize that Sonia is not in the business of improving it's tally at the cost of loosing a mid term election.

This is how Sonia is operating right now. She managed to grab central govt power with the help of regional goondas & anarchist commies. Now she has a deal with these fellows. The deal is, do not rock my central boat & I won't rock your boat in your states. I will loot this nation, convert it before I loose power in the next elections (& migrate to another country) & you do whatever you want at the state level. That is what Laloo's, commies are doing. In the mean time, she is encouraging illegal immigration from Bangladesh into NE, southern states as well. She will keep compromising her positions & also, sacrifice the interests of this nation to extend her days in power. She will agree to any demand of UPA allies as long as it extends her tenure.

The biggest looser in this whole thing are the Hindus who own India.

08-24-2005, 07:41 AM

QUOTEÂ
Snap poll buzz grips political class 
Pioneer News Service / New Delhi
Politics in India is as much a function of reality as it is of the grapevine. For two consecutive days, political circles, and particularly the Central Hall of Parliament, has been reverberating with speculation of the UPA Government preparing for a snap, mid-term general election, possibly after the Winter session of Parliament.

The bush telegraph got crackling with the apparently inexplicable Government decision to extend the Monsoon session of Parliament by another two days, till August 30. The theory doing the frenzied rounds is that the Government is working overtime to move the Women's Reservation Bill on the penultimate or final day of the present session. Although a consensus on the issue is still absent, there appears to have been a softening in the stand of the Samajwadi Party. SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav on Tuesday expressed his readiness to consider a 10 per cent reservation of Lok Sabha seats for women.

The mellowing of Mr Yadav, it is felt, may provide the Government the necessary window of opportunity to rush in with a piece of legislation. Apart from the RJD, which is still battling for quotas within a quota, all other major parties have left it to the Government to find a way out. The CPI (M) says it is willing to overlook its misgivings for the sake of consensus and the BJP says it has given the Government a "blank cheque".

If moved, the Women's Reservation Bill will in all probability be referred to a Standing Committee. However, that in itself is enough to energise the Congress into tom-toming its commitment to empowerment. Coupled with the Rural Employment Guarantee Act that has already cleared the Lok Sabha, Congress circles believe they have two political aces with which to face the electorate.

August 30 promises to be a crucial day for the political speculators. The Supreme Court will decide whether or not to stay the election process in Bihar, pending the disposal of the suit on the imposition of President's Rule. In terms of expectations, the wait for the SC verdict has witnessed a role reversal. The UPA constituents are hoping for a stay, despite its implications on the legality of the midnight decision. The NDA, ironically, is quietly hoping the election process will be given the green signal.

If the Bihar election is stayed, the UPA gets time to play its two aces, but for a national audience. For the NDA, however, an immediate test in Bihar is crucial to its bid to effect a comeback on the national stage. If Bihar gives its thumbs down to Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Congress will think twice about a snap poll. An alternative verdict, say the speculators, makes a winter poll inevitable.

Either way, political punters and "informed sources" are having a field day. With the Sensex in a corrective mode, politics is back in the betting game.

08-26-2005, 03:04 AM

<img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='unsure.gif' />
Do u think Left will align with Cong in event of Snap polls?

As the air is thick with snap polls esp after MMS calling Left as
road blocker; will there be realignments?

08-26-2005, 08:40 AM

QUOTEDo u think Left will align with Cong in event of Snap polls?

They will do after election result, Left are parasite they need food to survive.

08-29-2005, 12:04 AM

I do not see any advantage of snap poll for Congress. What is it going to gain? It will lose number of seats it got from AP, Karnataka and Maharastra. Punjab is a complete gone case. Possible losses in Assam too.

It has no way of gaining any advantage in Bihar and UP.

Assuming that it gains massively in Gujarat, moderately in MP and Orissa, what is it going to do.

The most probable( this is also a very long shot) thing that can happen is something like a pre-NDA situation. There can be a National Front kind of government with congress supporting from outside.

For this to happen George Fernandez should move to NF. Assuming that DMK and TDP doing good in their respective states, NCP also doing good in Maha then there is a remote chance of NF with left and congress forming a government at center.

The news of snap polls may be some kind of psyops by congress to check left parties.

08-29-2005, 12:21 AM

<img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbup.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='thumbup.gif' />
agreed Mup---.
It has already worked as Basu has already requested his politburo memers to start attending CMP meetings which they had stopped + Budha-- going to Indonesia and asking members to (P)reform or perish. He wants them to change their old way of thinking. WB Communists have fallen in line. It's Kerala Communists who r doing Karala act and understably so as they r out of power in Kerala. If BJP puts it's whole might behind Kerela, I won't be surprised if the contest in Kerela becomes triangular. BJP is likely to do better in future in Andhra and Tamil Nadu at the cost of Naidu and Jaya. I see BJP emerging as strong power contender in the whole of South.

08-30-2005, 09:05 PM

Be prepared for early polls: Vajpayee tells BJP QUOTETuesday, 30 August , 2005, 13:47

New Delhi: Claiming that the Congress-led coalition at the Centre was becoming "increasingly unstable", former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Tuesday asked BJP MPs to be prepared for mid-term polls and remain in constant touch with their constituents.
"Whenever the UPA government faces instability, they start talking of early polls, which further complicates the situation and they stop talking about it. Whether mid-term elections are held or not, we should remain prepared and remain in constant touch with the people", BJP Deputy Leader in Lok Sabha V K Malhotra quoted Vajpayee as saying
Increase in oil price may do magic.

09-22-2005, 09:05 PM

Some signs -
Same happened before NDA announced election and external element played important role. Let me list some.

NDA - Overpriced Stock market - Arun Shourie announced investigation
UPA - Overpriced Stock market even petrol price is so high - Govt announced investigation.

NDA - American media initially was saying too good about India and NDA and later started placing negative stories regarding scams and Indo- Pak relationship.
UPA- Western media was saying same about UPA but now UK media/Govt started releasing stories about Congress and Commies.

Main objective is to destabilize India and population to lose faith on rulers. Recipe for unrest.

12-17-2005, 09:40 AM

up!

02-09-2006, 01:29 AM

QUOTENo confidence in UPA, declares MulayamÂ 
Pioneer News Service / Lucknow
To bring motion against Government in Budget session----- Samajwadi Party supremo and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav announced on Wednesday that his party would bring a no-confidence motion against the Congress-led UPA Government in the coming Budget Session of Parliament.

Mr Yadav, addressing a rally here, said the Samajwadi Party would speak to the Left and other like-minded parties to seek their support for the no-confidence motion.

Lambasting the UPA Government for voting against Iran at the IAEA on that country's nuclear programme, Mr Yadav said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had succumbed to US pressure and voted against a friendly non-aligned country.
[shia vote]

"It is obvious that America wants to weaken oil producing nations like Iraq and Iran in order to control the market and the Government of a non-aligned nation like India is acting as its blind follower," Mr Yadav said.

"Countries like Iraq, Iran and Turkey have always backed India at the Security Council over issues like Kashmir. They also provided oil in times of crisis and the Union government has now bowed before the US and worked against the interests of a time-tested friend," he alleged. The vote against Iran was a "serious setback to our image", he added.
[Please change with global politics]

To register its protest against the UPA Government's decision and the proposed visit of US President George Bush next month, the Samajwadi Party will organise a 'maharally' in Delhi on March 2, Mr Yadav declared.
[This will be a real mess, on average it takes 3-4 days to clean road and more than year to install new Lamps and iron chains after any Kissan or SP rallies]

Charging the Congress with conspiring against him, his party and his Government, Mr Yadav said, "Repeated attempts are being made to destabilise my Government and malign me and other leaders of the Samajwadi Party," and threatened, "We, too, can pay them back in the same coin." <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/specool.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='specool.gif' />

Claiming that the telephones of Samajwadi Party leaders were being tapped at the behest of "Dilli ki sarkar", he said those behind the snooping failed in their motive but efforts are now being made to tarnish the image of party leaders. Without naming the Congress, Mr Yadav said,

"Some forces are taking undue interest in the Raj Babbar affair as they are keen to project a rift within the Samajwadi Party. They will not succeed in their attempts."

The Prajapati Samaj had organised Wednesday's rally to express gratitude to Mr Yadav for his efforts towards the uplift of the community. The Chief Minister said the community had now been listed with Scheduled Castes while earlier it was among the Other Backward Classes.

To strengthen his sway over the community, Mr Yadav also announced that the tenure of land leased to its members would be renewed. He also elevated the status of Mr Dayaram Prajapati to Cabinet rank.

Meanwhile, RSP leaders Aboni Roy said that the left also wanted a discussion on the Iran issue in parliament. " This is our well-known stand. First, let the SP bring no confidence motion. Then, we will see what to be done."

Congress spokesperson Jayanti Natrajan said Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav should first set his own house in order and address the issues raised by Mr Raj Babbar instead of doing politics on national and international issues. She tried to dismiss the threat of no confidence motion altogether by shifting focus on the internal crisis of the Samajwadi Party. In fact, sources in the Government also refuse to attach much significance to the SP's plan as they anticipate little support for what a senior minister described as "irresponsible politicking" on vital foreign policy matters.

02-12-2006, 12:13 AM

The UPA Government appears to be quite stable at the moment and the Left is in mood to topple it. Therefore, it is unlikely that the UPA will go for a snap poll. The grown rate of the economy being 8 percent and with upward movement of the economy due to a good monsoon as well as good exports, it is unlikely that people will be interested in any change at this point of time.
The Left made noise against the privatization of the airports and also about the stand that India has taken on the Iran nuclear issue. However, the Left has also made it clear that this does not warrant any threat to withdraw support from the UPA Government. On the other hand, the opposition political parties are not yet in a position to challenge the UPA in elections for the Parliament. It is a different matter in respect of the States, as for State elections the issues before the electorate and other associated deciding factors are quite different.

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