Pakistan - News and Discussion 6

05-27-2006, 11:30 PM

http://www.saag.org/papers19/paper1810.html
INDIA SHOULD FREEZE PEACE DIALOGUE WITH PAKISTAN 
By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Naresh · 05-28-2006, 01:57 AM

[center]Whatâs really happening?[/center]

Speakers at The Nationâs traditional pre-budget seminars present an interesting theme, at least since the â99 military takeover. Regardless of the faces, almost each year independent stakeholders including economists, industrialists, etc, take jabs at the sitting government for its faulty policies, while the governmentâs boys insist âeverything in the garden is greenâ.

Considering both parties are invited because of their apparent understanding of the economic situation, how much sense does it make for two views regarding the same thing to be almost exactly opposite? And these are not laymen analyses, they come from highly educated professionals, successful entrepreneurs/industrialists or those charged with handling the economy. So, why the divergence?

It is important to note that the annual budget document is more than just a sheet of statistics. In addition to being an important stocktaking of the economic situation, it incorporates the economic/financial direction of the country with the overall political vision. Its foremost task is to ensure the economy is kept in balance. It also shows how much the government is on-target. Also, it bears little reminding that it concerns everybody down to the last man. And when bigwigs cannot agree on how things are going, ordinary people with little or no value-added education have little or no chance of being any wiser.

One simple fact cannot be disputed. Two converse views regarding the same thing cannot be true at the same time. At least one has to be false or worse, fabricated. But with the over-emphasis on technical rhetoric among stakeholders (especially the finance ministry) serving more to confuse than impress, it is little surprise that a final verdict remains elusive. Perhaps a reorientation of the litmus-criterion is in order. The important question is, who should be believed with regard to how the economy is going? Whose verdict should be final?

Ironically, whereas âsecond generation reforms are paving the way for sustained multi-dimensional high GDP growth for the medium termâ and âfailure to address lingering infrastructural deficiencies has disrupted the takeoff stageâ might leave a little to be explained, the man on the streetâs take is much more clear. The word is of prices that donât stop rising and incomes that donât budge (except civil servants and army men). This means that a vast majority that depends on wages is experiencing what economic jargon dubs an uncomfortable decrease in purchasing power and savings.

The point is simple. If the common man is listened to more than he is made to listen, identification and subsequent removal of bottlenecks and problems would become that much quicker. It would also help differentiate between who is genuinely concerned and who is not, especially among notable personalities that tell us how we are doing. If the vast majority of the people the policies are designed for are complaining of choking under highest-in-a-decade inflation and facing an increasing inability to make ends meet sitting on their sticky wages, things cannot be all that rosy, can they?

Therefore, the final verdict should be that of the people. It makes economic and also democratic sense. Now, assuming the people â on whom the effect of economic policies must ultimately show â are right, then common sense would dictate that those harbouring converse views regarding the same economic situation must be wrong. Since in our case that turns out to be the government, matters become uncomfortable.

It is important to note that if, going by our assumption, those in charge of steering the economy are not only not in tune with the real state of affairs, but take it to be something quite different, then their policies would also not target the right areas. Resultantly, main problems would remain unresolved, which in turn would impact the economy adversely. Now, consider the on ground situation. After making impressive gains, bolstering the foreign exchange reserves, increasing tax revenues and achieving an eight per cent plus GDP growth rate for only the fifth time in the countryâs history, the economy is showing signs of tearing at the seams, with most important indicators registering very disturbing trends. They are also embarrassing the economic managersâ predicting prowess.

Even half way through the fiscal year, the economic situation had become precarious, with the finance ministryâs mid year review bringing bad news from almost all quarters. The government had to revise estimates for under pressure FE reserves, slowing down large scale manufacturing sector and inflation that is still nowhere near being reigned in. Even worse, the current account and trade deficits have ballooned out of proportion, with the latter set to record the largest margin in Pakistani history. Meanwhile, the World Bank and ADB have expressed concerns about the overall growth rate coming down from the projected seven per cent to a more realistic 6.3-6.5 per cent. They have also noted that appreciable as the increased tax earnings are, they are not nearly enough for a country the size of Pakistan.

If the highest offices still claim the economy has never been better, they will excuse the common man for taking it with a pinch of salt. Even with peopleâs economic sufferings visibly increasing, and in no small way, the economic managersâ ability to employ the proverbial spin and keep things confused in rhetoric is worthy of appreciation in itself. To make matters much worse, the government has been found facilitating fraud by helping cover up hoarding and subsequently artificial price hike by powerful bigwigs, that too in items of necessary everyday consumption.

With budget time approaching, stocktaking of the economic situation is in order. Indian finance Minister P Chidambaram made a pertinent remark at the time of their last budget, that the entire purpose of the budget exercise ought to be poverty alleviation. By that standard, Pakistanâs prized âsecond generation economic reformsâ have been an utter failure. The economic gains have not trickled down from the upper class and the only government efforts that are seen amount to maintaining this trend. Interestingly, the final verdict does belong to the people. To give the Indian example again, the poor, neglected and left out of the good times segments of society have been known to exercise their right and know who not to vote for.

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

Naresh · 05-28-2006, 03:04 AM

Delusions of grandeur

Our rulers often suffer from strange delusions of their own grandeur. In a recent TV interview, General Musharraf said he wants to be remembered as the âsaviour of Pakistanâ in the history âfor saving the country from the brink of an economic collapse and for introducing real democracyâ.

He also said that the entire army, down to the last soldier, was right behind him. This is pure rodomontade for remand from the popular opinion. Until the day he toppled the civilian government, very few people had even heard his name. He passed 35 undistinguished years of his life in army barracks and, though he rose to be the army chief, it would be unfair to equate him with any accomplished politician, much less to a visionary economist. What has he done during the seven years of authoritarian rule to merit a place in history?

An overwhelming majority of people hold him responsible for destroying the entire spectrum of our political, social and moral values, whatever little we had, before he gate-crashed on the political scene. Like all intractable dictators of his kind, he has created cracks in fissures in our polity, which have put the very integrity of the country, especially the bondage of Balochistan and NWFP with Islamabad, at risk. In the realm of the foreign policy, he has diminished the honour of the country by making it a surrogate of the US, India, even Afghanistan.

His economic policies for which he does a feckless horn-tooting at every opportunity, are mere government statistics (which are worse than white lies). His given âprosperityâ has had a multiplying effect on the poor of this country who have increased manifolds, in tens of millions, during his reign. If the entire army is perceived by him to be on his side it is because of our military system which is based on abject loyalty and extreme servility to the superior ranks and not because he is an able or popular leader. -SEEMAB ABBASI, Rawalpindi, May 9.

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

Naresh · 05-28-2006, 05:55 AM

Per capita income in Pakistan rises to $846, says PM

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

05-28-2006, 07:23 AM

QUOTEPer capita income in Pakistan rises to $846, says PM 
God! How they lie so openly?
Yesterday they were heading for worst debt, suddenly all books are showing reverse. GDP is showing remarkable growth within days. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />
Even ENRON can't show such numbers.

Naresh · (This post was last modified: 05-28-2006, 09:57 PM by Naresh.)

QUOTE(Mudy @ May 28 2006, 07:23 AM)God! How they lie so openly?
Yesterday they were heading for worst debt, suddenly all books are showing reverse. GDP is showing remarkable growth within days.Â <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />
Even ENRON can't show such numbers.
[right][snapback]51778[/snapback][/right]

Mudy Ji :

Lying comes Naturally to the Lotas!

AAA : Some time back â I do not remember when â I had made a comparison between the GDP âDeclarationsâ various Pakistani Lotas â Mush the Tush, Shortcut As Is and the Ilk â and the latest Statement by the State Bank of Pakistan.

The statement by Shortcut As Is stating that Pakistani Per Capita Income has risen to USD 846 and the GDP around the USD 135 Billion Mark :

Per capita income in Pakistan rises to $846, says PM

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shuakat Aziz on Saturday said that the latest data shows per capita income in the country has risen to US$846 due to the governmentâs prudent economic policies over the last five years. Talking to a delegation of the All Pakistan Newspapers Society (APNS) led by Mir Shakil-ur-Rehman at the PM House, he said the government intended to provide relief to the common man through a number of measures in the forthcoming budget for 2006-07. He said the government had already taken some bold steps to check domestic prices of sugar and cement. He told the delegation that due to the economic reforms, the countryâs debt had come down from over 100 percent of GDP in 1999 to less than 60 percent at present. He said the privatisation process of various public sector entities was clear and transparent. app

I now compare the âStatement by Prime Minister Aziz with the figures from the State Bank of Pakistanâs Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy 2005 â National Income, Saving and Investment Section â Page Nine :

http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/stats/Pa...Book/Chap_1.pdf

1.1 Gross National Product - a. At Current Factor Cost for the Pakistani Financial Year 2005 i.e. from 01-07-2005 to 30-06-2006, Provisional Figures :

4. Gross Domestic Product (FC) : Pak. Rs. 6,129.676 Billion = USD 102 Billion

7. Gross Domestic Product (MP) : Pak. Rs. 6,547.590 Billion = USD 109 Billion

9. Gross National Product (FC) : Pak. Rs.6,254.900 Billion = USD 104 Billion

10. Gross National Product (MP) : Pak Rs. 6,672.814 = USD 111 Billion

11. Population (in millions) : 152.53

12. Per capita income (FC) in Rs. 41,008 = USD 683

13. Per capita income (MP) in Rs. 43,748 = USD 729

Conversion Rate : USD 1 = Pak. Rs. 60

The Population figure for Mid Financial Year 2005-2006 i.e. 31-12-2005 of 152.53 is beyond belief :

You will note form the following Web site of the Pakistan Population Census Organizationâs Population Clock Estimated Population of Pakistan on May 28, 2006 : 157,187,000.

http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/pco/index.html

As such one can safely assume that on 31-12-2005 the Pakistani Estimated Population figure would be 156 Million.

Thus the Per Capita Income (MP) based on a GNP (MP) of USD 111 Billion and a Population of 156 Million would be USD 711

According to the CIA Web Site the Estimated Pakistani Population in July 2006 is 165 Million.

In this case the Per Capita Income Basis a Population of 162 Million would equate to USD 685. Again if it was based on Factor Cost then it would be further reduced to USD 642. Short Cut As Is has pulled out a figure of USD 846 as Pakistanis F Y 2005 Per Capita Income

BBB : Probable Reason for Pakistani Lotas âJacking Up the GDP and thus the Per Capita Incomeâ

From the above â Page Nine :

10. Gross National Product (MP) :

F Y 2001 : Pak Rs. 4,108.172 = USD 68 Billion

F Y 2002 : 4,425,364

FY 2003 : 4,974,654

FY 2004 : 5,657,141

FY 2005 : Pak Rs. 6,672.814 = USD 111 Billion

The Pakistani Total Nation Debt has been hovering around the USD 70 Billion Mark (External + Internal)

Thus the reduction of Pakistanâs National Debt from 100% of the GDP to 60% of the GDP has been achieved by âJacking Up the GDPâ â A clear case of creative Accounting which is contrary to the State Bank of Pakistan Figures!

I cannot say about the Pakistani Internal Debt but the External Debt is way beyond the Official figures are there have been Development Loans as well as Issuance of Bonds to the Tune of USD 1.5 to 2 Billion.

The State Bank of Pakistan â showing the External Debt and Liabilities - is repeating the End December 2005 Figures and is not quoting the End March 2006 Figures, for obvious Reasons.

PAKISTANâS FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES : END PERIOD : 20-May-06 :

IN USD BILLIONS

NET RESERVES WITH SBP : 10.6581

NET RESERVES WITH OTHER BANKS :02.3890

TOTAL LIQUID RESERVES : 13.0471

Of the Net Reserves with SBP over USD 2 Billion have been deposited by Foreign Countries

The Net Reserves with Other Banks are not under the Control of the State Bank of Pakistan or the National Fiscal Authorities.

As such in Real Terms Pakistanâs External Debt is about USD Eight Billions whereas, in my opinion, the Foreign Debt should be close to USD 38 Billion.

To End : Short Cut As Is has used Enron Type âCreative Accountingâ Methods to show a Rosy Picture.

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

05-29-2006, 06:41 AM

Thanks Nareshji,

I was amazed by Paki Fantasy Accounting. They are fooling themselves.

With so many thing are going wrong with Pakistan :
Population should be above 163 million.
Literacy rate is going down.
Earthquake
Freedom struggle in Balochistan
Regular short circuit in gas line.
Quality of life is going down.
Army expenditure, now majority of budget should go in pension kitty.

They have done nothing to reduce debt, except couple countries have changed debt terms. They are borrowing lot.
They get subsidize oil from Saudi.
Now they are unable to sell poppy and Nukes.
Private sector and Army Industry is working for limited population.

Naresh · 05-29-2006, 02:42 PM

Mudy Ji :

Had a similar âActâ been carried out in India then the Worldâs Leadership & Media in General and Pakistani Leadership & Media in Particular would been baying for Indiaâs Blood. Of course our Desi Dork Media would also have a field day especial if the BJP and its Coalition were in Power.

We do not hear a Word from Professional Bidet and his Ilk about the Shenanigans of the Evil Pakistani Lotas! I Wonder Why?

To your excellent reply above I would like to add and amend the following :

1. Literacy rate is going down. : According to a Pakistani Minister it is 8.5 Per Cent as per the following Article :

"Enlightened moderation has become a joke" â Minister of state for Religious Affairs Aamer Liaqat Hussain

2. They have done nothing to reduce debt, except couple countries have changed debt terms. They are borrowing lot. To it I must add I believe that âOverseas Lendersâ have also forgiven Pakistan up to USD Five Billion Debt

3. They get subsidize oil from Saudi. The Saudi Subsidized Oil Supply was stopped some time ago. Mush the Tush and Short Cut As Is begged the Saudi King, when he last visited Pakistan a few months ago, but I believe âOfficiallyâ His Majesty âDemurredâ

Aagey Aagey Dekhiye Hota Hai Kya!

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

05-29-2006, 08:28 PM

28 May
Two Indian Hindu tourist died and seven injured in attack by Pakistani Muslim terrorist in SIndh region.

Naresh · 05-30-2006, 05:44 AM

Water, water everywhere â Cutting edgeI Hassan

QUOTEFifty years ago, the population did not have the benefit of being able to use a drainage and sewerage system. Karachi was the only place which had this luxury. The rest of the country had a primitive system of a sweeper visiting once a day to collect all the human waste in a basket and carry it away on head to God knows where. Over the years, almost all the towns and cities have adopted a water-borne sewerage system with the consequent increase in use of water. And yet, it is far from complete because in all our rural areas, people still grace the fields to relieve themselves. But gradually people are learning and adopting non-traditional ways of fulfilling this function. This means that there is a need for more and more water. Traditionally, our people bathed once a week on Fridays but now they are having to do so daily with the result that more and more water is required and the requirement will continue to grow. <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/Flush.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='Flush.gif' />

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

Naresh · 05-30-2006, 05:48 AM

Circuit breakers avert big crash, Rs112bn wiped out

QUOTEKARACHI: Circuit breakers averted big crash at the Karachi stock market on Monday where most of the blue chips closed at lower circuit levels. KSE 100-share index fell like nine pins and lost 412.79 points to 10,247.60 where market capitalisation also breached Rs3 trillion mark in reverse gear.

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

05-30-2006, 07:25 AM

QUOTETraditionally, our people bathed once a week on Fridays but now they are having to do so daily with the result that more and more water is required and the requirement will continue to grow.
There is old saying in Punjab when someone skip shower/bath.
Kya Juma ki Juma ho

But it seems Muslims actually practice this shower ritual.

Naresh · 05-30-2006, 02:01 PM

QUOTE(Mudy @ May 30 2006, 07:25 AM)There is old saying in Punjab when someone skip shower/bath.
Kya Juma ki Juma ho

But it seems Muslims actually practice this shower ritual.
[right][snapback]51834[/snapback][/right]

Mudy Ji :

1. In Mumbai many of our Muslim Classmates used to turn the âFriday is Bath Dayâ into a joke on us by say :

KYA TUM HINDU

SUBHA NAHATEY

PHIR JA KAY SHAAM KO NAHATEY

UPAN MUSALMAAN TO NAHATEY

DUR ROZ JUMAY KAY JUMAY, JUMAY KAY JUMAY, JUMAY KAY JUMAY.

The words âSubhaâ and âShaamâ are âDragged onâ and the last line is spoken âQuicklyâ, repeatedly.

Seemingly, the âFriday is Bath Dayâ has been turned into an Islamic Ritual when in fact it is a Bedouin Ritual.

2. In my opinion Pakistan could solve its problems by ensuring that the 97% of Pakistanis in the Land of Pure should bathe every day on Friday wonlee as well as revert to the Original Primitive System for Sewerage that prevailed over fifty Years ago. <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/Flush.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='Flush.gif' />

Pakistani Water Shortage Problem Solved!

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

Bharatvarsh · 05-30-2006, 05:05 PM

QUOTETwo Hindu pilgrims killed in Pakistani attack

SUKKUR, Pakistan (Reuters) - Unidentified gunmen attacked a convoy of Hindu pilgrims in Pakistan killing two and wounding seven, police said on Monday.

While violence between militants from Muslim sects is relatively common in Pakistan, the country's tiny Hindu minority has not suffered serious violence in recent years.

The convoy of about 20 vehicles carrying Pakistani and Indian Hindus was attacked late on Sunday in a remote part of Sindh province, police said.

"They were returning from a holy place when three armed men opened fire and killed two men and wounded seven," said police official Rana Sanaullah.

Sanaullah and hospital officials said all of the dead and wounded were Pakistanis.

"It was terrorism. They're trying to discourage us from coming here," said one pilgrim from India, Ramesh Lal.

Pakistan has recently relaxed entry restrictions for Hindus and Sikhs from India wishing to visit holy sites, as part of gradually improving relations between the South Asian rivals.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/060529/137/64mw1.html

Naresh · 05-31-2006, 03:26 AM

Mudy Ji :

Mush the Tush & Co. on Locoweed!

Budget outlay to be Rs. 1.5 Trillion

QUOTEISLAMABAD â The next budget outlay will be Rs 1.5 trillion for the upcoming financial year 2006-07 in which the government would provide subsidies to decrease prices of essential commodities and appropriate resources would be given for 10 to 20 years modernization plan for Armed Forces.

Pakistanâs GDP size will touch Rs 8.8 trillion (equivalent to $145 billion) in next the next fiscal and generation of more revenues will help the government in providing relief to low income groups and allocating more resources for development requirements.

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

05-31-2006, 05:48 AM

Nareshji,
They are creating 5.5 million new job. God knows how they will do it.
10 new dams, I think all will be on paper.
Growth rate will be 8%.

All this figure and new great GDP figure and budget allocation only suggest Paki army is really trying to steal big chunk of money for its own kitty.
Slowly Paki army is robbing Pakistan. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />

Naresh · 05-31-2006, 01:49 PM

QUOTE(Mudy @ May 31 2006, 05:48 AM)Nareshji,
They are creating 5.5 million new job. God knows how they will do it.
10 new dams, I think all will be on paper.
Growth rate will be 8%.

All this figure and new great GDP figure and budget allocation only suggest Paki army is really trying to steal big chunk of money for its own kitty.
Slowly Paki army is robbing Pakistan. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />
[right][snapback]51874[/snapback][/right]

Mudy Ji :

The Paki Armed Forces in General and the Paki Army are partaking in a âFrenzied Loot and Plunder" of Pakistan. There is nothing âslowâ about it.

This "Thieving" is now apparent to the Ordinary Educated Pakistani and thus you will find the "Ahmed Faruqui" Ilk asking questions about the "reality" of Pakistan's Economic and Social Status.

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

06-01-2006, 12:33 AM

QUOTEPakistan Paradox: How Can 'Ally' Harbor OBL, Threaten Afghans?
PAUL SPERRY

Op-Ed/Editorial section in INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 5/30/2006

The Taliban's attacks on southern Afghanistan grow more brazen by the day. Their former stronghold of Kandahar is now convulsing with violence. More than 500 deaths have been reported in the past two weeks alone, marking the deadliest violence since the regime's 2001 ouster.

U.S. officials acknowledge the Taliban has grown in "strength and influence" in recent weeks. What they don't acknowledge, at least not publicly, is that our "ally" Pakistan is feeding the insurgency.

It's now an open secret that Pakistan is trying to destabilize the pro-U.S. government we helped set up in Afghanistan after 9-11. Pakistan's military, which views Kabul's warmer relations with India as a threat, is supporting Taliban attacks on Afghan and coalition forces.

The attacks are being staged from the northern Pakistani city of Quetta â the Taliban's new "headquarters" â where Pakistani officials are accused of recruiting, training and arming Taliban fighters.

There is evidence that Pakistan has supplied them with detonators for the improvised explosive devices used to blow up convoys, and batteries for shoulder-fired Stinger missiles used to shoot down aircraft.

Islamabad denies helping or even harboring the Taliban. But Afghanistan's president has provided Islamabad with a list of high-value Taliban targets â including the addresses of their villas in Quetta. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has linked enemy supply lines back to Quetta. And a British commander on the ground in Afghanistan has publicly complained about Pakistan.

The White House and State Department know this. But they're trying to keep the mess behind closed doors. Privately, they've expressed anger with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf for not delivering on his end of the bargain. After 9-11, he agreed to cut all ties with the Taliban in exchange for billions in aid.

That's why President Bush flew to Pakistan recently. He jawboned Musharraf about not cracking down on Taliban strongholds and about not doing more to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his deputy, who have been able to deliver tape-recorded threats unmolested to Pakistan-based journalists.

Five Years Of Nothing

After Bush's trip, U.S. Central Command Gen. John Abizaid paid a visit to Musharraf to complain about Taliban incursions in Afghanistan.

Then it was the State Department's turn. Henry Crumpton, the U.S. ambassador in charge of counterterrorism, told Islamabad that it was not doing enough to flush out Taliban and al-Qaida leaders from its territory.

We're running out of officials to send to hold Musharraf's hand. But the White House insists on sticking to a policy of "public support and private pressure" so as not to destabilize Musharraf's regime. It assumes Musharraf wants to help us, but cannot look too eager in the eyes of his Muslim masses.

So we'll just have to be patient â shhh! he is helping us quietly. In fact, he's barely helping at all.

Since we partnered with Pakistan almost five years ago, it hasn't turned over a single high-ranking Taliban commander; Mullah Omar himself is believed to be living in the Quetta area. Nor has it turned over a single member of bin Laden's inner circle, known to be hiding in the northern tribal area above Peshawar. And of the midranking al-Qaida lieutenants it's captured, all were driven by leads from U.S. intelligence, not Pakistani intelligence. In other words, we forced their hand in each case. And Musharraf still refuses to turn over some of them to us for interrogation.

It's widely suspected in the U.S. intelligence community that Musharraf is playing us, using the prospect of capturing our high-value terrorist targets as leverage to milk us for more aid and permanently lifted sanctions. He has little intention of actively hunting down bin Laden and our other enemies.

Listen to his own words: "If we get intelligence (on them), we will do it ourselves."

If we get intelligence? That's hardly the attitude of an active war partner, or one who shares our sense of urgency.

And asked whether Pakistan would turn bin Laden over to the U.S. if he were found in Pakistan, Musharraf said he would "have to see what happens." Huh? "We hope he's found in Afghanistan by the Americans," he said, adding, "I would prefer that somebody else handled him."

How reassuring. Yet Musharraf won't even authorize U.S. troops to enter his country to "handle" the situation he prefers not to handle. And we've agreed to the ban, because he's convinced us that if he does let our troops cross the border, all hell will break loose among the really crazy Muslims he supposedly can't control in his population. Which means we could lose the only friend we have in Pakistan â Musharraf.

Only, there were no mass revolts after we recently fired missiles at al-Qaida targets in a Pakistani village, which ended up also killing civilians. There were no attempts on Musharraf's life. Nor did the Islamic masses rise up in 2001 when we flew sorties from Pakistani air bases to support Operation Enduring Freedom.

The notion of the Musharraf regime teetering on the brink of anarchy just doesn't fit with reality.

No candidate in recent Parliamentary elections â including Islamic extremists â got more than 11% of the vote. That's hardly a threat to a military strongman like Musharraf, who seized power in a military coup and, if threatened, would not hesitate to put down a countercoup.

Even if he fails, the Pentagon has plans on the books to secure Pakistan's relatively small stockpile of nuclear bombs in the event of such a coup. And Musharraf himself has not exactly been a good custodian of that nuclear capability. Pakistan under his regime has been the world's worst proliferator of nukes. His nuclear scientists â who are under Musharraf's military control â have shared nuclear technology with other Muslim nations like Iran and Libya (and possibly Saudi), as well as North Korea. They also met with bin Laden and other al-Qaida leaders in Kandahar before 9-11.

So what should we do about Pakistan?

The White House is no doubt in a political bind, because it's publicly praised the unholy alliance with Pakistan. So it'll have to continue to pressure Musharraf behind the scenes.

No F-16s

But now, with the threat of losing Afghanistan, it must finally play hardball by delivering him an ultimatum: Either get control of your military and stop its support of Taliban attacks in Afghanistan, or we'll have no choice but to defend our forces and interests by striking back against their strongholds in Quetta and other tribal regions.

We could agree to describe such military action (for the benefit of the Pakistani press) as "joint operations" with Pakistani forces, and not unilateral operations. Entering the tribal region would at the same time give us the opening to also put boots on the ground in the area around Peshawar to smoke out bin Laden and his deputies.

If Musharraf balks, the White House can simply threaten to yank back carrots, one by one, until he gives in to our demands. No delivery of the promised F-16s and other military gear. Suspension of direct economic aid. Reinstatement of sanctions. Cancellation of loans from the Export-Import Bank and Overseas Private Investment Corp.

Yes, visible cracks in the Pakistan alliance would be a political setback for Bush, who has sung its praises. But a worse setback would be having to refight the Afghan war, thanks to the Pakistani military attacking our troops by proxy. Imagine daily casualties reported on the nightly news alongside those in Iraq. Even now, the secure area of Kabul has shrunk to a tiny island in the middle of the capital, not much larger than the Green Zone in Baghdad.

On the other hand, imagine the political victory of finally capturing bin Laden and his deputies, in addition to Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders. Bush's poll numbers â and GOP fortunes â would rebound overnight.

â Sperry, formerly IBD's Washington bureau chief, is a Hoover Institution media fellow and author of "Infiltration: How Muslim Spies and Subversives Have Penetrated Washington."

Naresh · 06-01-2006, 03:38 AM

Foreign trade to exceed $50b in FY07

QUOTELAHORE â Pakistanâs foreign trade in the coming financial year 2006-07 is poised to exceed 50 billion dollars mark, The Nation learnt on Wednesday.

The overall quantum of foreign trade in the coming fiscal is being projected at 52 billion dollars by the officials of the Ministry of Commerce.

The exports are being estimated at 19.5 billion dollars in 2006-07 while imports are being projected at 32.50 billion dollars, a senior official of Commerce Ministry told The Nation.

Thus the actual size of the trade deficit might hit 13 billion dollars highest level in the forthcoming financial year, although the officials are underestimating it around 10 billion dollars, he said.

In comparison with the fiscal year 2005-06 the size of foreign trade in 2006-07 might surge by seven billion dollars - five billion dollars increase in imports and two billion dollars growth in exports.

In 2005-06 the quantum of the foreign trade is expected to settle at 45 billion dollars â 28 billion dollars imports and 17 billion dollars exports while trade deficit could expand to 11 billion dollars.

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Naresh · 06-01-2006, 02:32 PM

Poverty gauge âflawedâ: Conflicting figures cast doubts over Pakistani govt claims

ISLAMABAD, May 31: The government on Wednesday termed its 2001 poverty assessment methodology flawed and said the overall poverty level had declined to 23.9 per cent.

Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Dr Akram Sheikh told newsmen that the number of people âliving below poverty line now stood at 39 millionâ.

He said the new methodology had been verified by a committee, comprising Secretary Planning Akram Malik and representatives of the World Bank, United Nations Development Programme and Germanyâs Department for International Development (DFID) and it âputs the (incidence of) poverty at 23.9 per centâ, much below the governmentâs earlier estimates, which had put it at 25.6 per cent.

Mr Akram Malik said that using the same methodology, the poverty level in 2001 was now estimated to be 34 per cent while the earlier âflawedâ methodology had put it at 32.1 per cent.

Without elaborating the new parameters for poverty assessment, he said the subject would be dealt with in a chapter in the economic survey and annual plan.

Conflicting poverty figures cited by various government officials is creating doubts about the poverty-related data.

Minister of State for Finance Omar Ayub said that poverty had been recorded at 34.6 per cent in 2000-01.

Interestingly, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance Dr Salman Shah said on Wednesday that the poverty figure had been estimated at 25.6 per cent under the Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) survey.

Pakistanâs development partners, including the World Bank, have been insisting for a couple of years that 38 per cent of Pakistanâs population was living below poverty line and the 2001 survey contained massive procedural and calculation flaws.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz on Wednesday said that poverty had been reduced from 34.46 per cent in 2000-01 to 23.9 per cent in 2004-05. He said that urban poverty had declined from 22.7 per cent to 14.9 per cent and rural poverty had dropped from 39.26 to 28.1 per cent.

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