05-24-2005, 12:25 AM
Postin in this thread as UPA might recommend dissolution in case this come strue.
From deccan.com, 24 May 2005
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Jayaâs reverse swing
By Siddhartha Reddy
Political tsunamis from a southern coastal stateâs turbulent politics brought death to four Central governments and devoured three Prime Ministers. It is a process that is best described as the Tamil Nadu Syndrome. In 1996, the Congress split into pro- and anti-Narasimha Rao groups in most states. In some, they left the party, in others, they stayed back to defeat Congress candidates. Tamil Nadu Congressmen urged the severing of AIADMK-Congress ties. Since Rao refused, the state unit formed a new party aligning with the DMK. The AIADMK lost the state government, the Congress lost its Central government and Rao ceased to be PM.
In 1997, the Congress, accusing the DMK of involvement with Rajiv Gandhiâs assassins (LTTE), put pressure on the United Front to drop DMK ministers. The UF refused. The Congress withdrew support. The UF government fell, and I.K. Gujral ceased to be PM. In 1999, Jayalalithaaâs AIADMK withdrew support from the BJP-led government which also met with the same fate, after which, but for the Kargil war, the NDA would not have been able to return to power.
In 2004, BJPâs Tamil Nadu allies (DMK, PMK, MDMK) after enjoying five years of power, aligned with the Congress. DMKâs seven-party alliance generated the biggest ever electoral tsunami, drowning the NDA and sweeping away all 40 seats. The NDA lost and Vajpayee ceased to be PM.
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian movement unleashed an anti-Brahmin propaganda and offered the liberation from casteist exploitation. Assuring self-respect, power, social emancipation and economic resurgence to non-Brahmin Hindus, Annaduraiâs DMK seized power in 1967. After his death, Karunanidhi became the chief minister. The DMK split and M.G. Ramachandran floated the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. After his death, his wife Janaki inherited the party but was unable to handle it and migrated to the US and Jayalalithaa took over.
The UPA is targeting Jayalalithaa, as did the NDA. The DMK is and has been part of both UPA and NDA. Finance minister P. Chidambaramâs aggressive campaign against Jayalalithaa is authored by Karunanidhi. She is being painted as corrupt, dictatorial, arrogant and unreliable. A disproportionate assets case has been initiated against her, with hearings at Bangalore, to ensure conviction. The DMKâs strategy is to secure her conviction by March 2006 thus disabling her from contesting and campaigning in May 2006 and to secure a win for the DMK by projecting Karunanidhi and then anointing Stalin as CM.
After losing the Lok Sabha elections of 2004, Jayalalithaa changed gears. Among other measures, she reversed harsh decisions by revoking the anti-conversion bill and withdrawing disciplinary punishment against workers. She abandoned the H-stamp ration cards, prohibited the upper-income groups from buying PDS commodities, ensured minimum wages for agricultural labour and urban construction labour, provided free text-books up to the 10th standard.
She also arrested both the Kanchi Shankaracharyas and in the process alienated the Muttâs devotees, the Hindu-activists of her state and the general Hindu population nationwide. It resulted in the BJP breaking its alliance with her.Â
The exhilarated non-Brahmins crowned Jayalalithaa the Dravidian queen, for bettering the anti-Brahmin methods of E.V. Ramaswamy Naicker, the founder of the Dravidian movement. At the national level, most Congressmen and the âThird Frontâ parties and the communists lionised Jayalalithaa as the secular queen.
In Kanchipuram and Gummidipoondi, last year, DMKâs seven-party coalition secured a 25,000- and 33,000-vote majority, though the AIADMK got the BJPâs committed vote. After that, for the May 14 byelections this year, the DMK pressurised the Election Commission to create a pro-DMK administrative environment. Central security turned the constituencies into fortresses.
Polling personnel flew in from outside Tamil Nadu. The DMK matched AIADMK in manpower, resources and campaign. Stalin and Dayanidhi Maran, aided by 12 Union ministers from Tamil Nadu, managed the byelections. The DMK lost both seats by huge margins of 17,000 and 30,000 votes. Obviously, the UPAâs performance has not impressed Tamil Nadu.
Jayalalithaa, in effect, has bowled a reverse swing: 35,000 votes in an Assembly constituency are equivalent to 250,000 votes in one Lok Sabha constituency. If this mood holds, and the same battle line-up exists, then Jayalalithaa will secure a big victory in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections and will also bag all 39 Lok Sabha seats. That will be the end of Karunanidhi, politically.
It is impossible for Karunanidhi to beat Jayalalithaa in the Dravidian game. The byelection results prove that. Now Dalit Panthers, the communists and Ramadossâ PMK might abandon the DMK to join an upbeat AIADMK. They could inspire Vaikoâs MDMK too, thus creating a Jayalalithaa-led unbeatable Dravidian-secular alliance.
Karunanidhi neednât wait till May 2006. Jayalalithaa could hold elections this winter itself. After it loses the Assembly elections, the DMK will split and Jayalalithaa will grab the entire Dravidian vote. Any delay in Karunanidhiâs strategy will make Jayalalithaa invincible. <b>So what will creative script-writer Karunanidhi do, to outsmart Jayalalithaa? </b>
Here comes Sharad Pawar who is working overtime to string together all anti-Congress forces to build new equations. The UPA has the support of 350 MPs. <b>This government collapses if 80 MPs desert it. </b>Then someone has to fabricate a non-Congress-non-BJP coalition, and secure outside support from the BJP (136) and the Shiv Sena (11) on the condition that Narendra Modi is removed from Gujarat CMâs post, prior to effecting a change at the Centre.
A CBI-harassed BJP will gleefully support the new formation, putting forth the following conditions: the withdrawal of investigation against the NDAâs former ministers, the dropping of charges against the Shankaracharyas, Presidentâs Rule in West Bengal and Assam, the detoxification of a communist-run administration, weeding-out of bogus voters and Bangladeshis.
<b>The UPA allies are unhappy with Congressâ high-handedness. </b>So Mulayam (38), Mayawati (18), DMK (16), NCP (9), PMK (6), TRS (5), MDMK (4), Ajit Singh (3), Paswan (3), Athavle (1), Mizo (1), Nagaland (1), Sikkim (1) and Bodo (1) can woo NDAâs BJD (11), Akali (8), JD(U) (7), TDP (5), NC (2), Trinamul (2), AGP (2) and Ladakh (1), <b>together can install a 290-MP-supported, new non-Congress-non-BJP government, </b>with Karunanidhi as PM. The first Tamil PM could appeal to Tamil Nadu to vote in DMK in the Assembly elections. <b>So Karunanidhi is under pressure to decide quickly. </b>
If Karunanidhi becomes PM, Pawar will be the deputy PM as also the de facto PM. As a bonus, daughter Supriya might be made Maharashtraâs first woman chief minister with outside support from Shiv Sena-BJP. <b>So Karunanidhi has much pinch-hitting to do, to survive Jayalalithaaâs reverse swing.</b>
The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com
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From deccan.com, 24 May 2005
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Jayaâs reverse swing
By Siddhartha Reddy
Political tsunamis from a southern coastal stateâs turbulent politics brought death to four Central governments and devoured three Prime Ministers. It is a process that is best described as the Tamil Nadu Syndrome. In 1996, the Congress split into pro- and anti-Narasimha Rao groups in most states. In some, they left the party, in others, they stayed back to defeat Congress candidates. Tamil Nadu Congressmen urged the severing of AIADMK-Congress ties. Since Rao refused, the state unit formed a new party aligning with the DMK. The AIADMK lost the state government, the Congress lost its Central government and Rao ceased to be PM.
In 1997, the Congress, accusing the DMK of involvement with Rajiv Gandhiâs assassins (LTTE), put pressure on the United Front to drop DMK ministers. The UF refused. The Congress withdrew support. The UF government fell, and I.K. Gujral ceased to be PM. In 1999, Jayalalithaaâs AIADMK withdrew support from the BJP-led government which also met with the same fate, after which, but for the Kargil war, the NDA would not have been able to return to power.
In 2004, BJPâs Tamil Nadu allies (DMK, PMK, MDMK) after enjoying five years of power, aligned with the Congress. DMKâs seven-party alliance generated the biggest ever electoral tsunami, drowning the NDA and sweeping away all 40 seats. The NDA lost and Vajpayee ceased to be PM.
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian movement unleashed an anti-Brahmin propaganda and offered the liberation from casteist exploitation. Assuring self-respect, power, social emancipation and economic resurgence to non-Brahmin Hindus, Annaduraiâs DMK seized power in 1967. After his death, Karunanidhi became the chief minister. The DMK split and M.G. Ramachandran floated the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. After his death, his wife Janaki inherited the party but was unable to handle it and migrated to the US and Jayalalithaa took over.
The UPA is targeting Jayalalithaa, as did the NDA. The DMK is and has been part of both UPA and NDA. Finance minister P. Chidambaramâs aggressive campaign against Jayalalithaa is authored by Karunanidhi. She is being painted as corrupt, dictatorial, arrogant and unreliable. A disproportionate assets case has been initiated against her, with hearings at Bangalore, to ensure conviction. The DMKâs strategy is to secure her conviction by March 2006 thus disabling her from contesting and campaigning in May 2006 and to secure a win for the DMK by projecting Karunanidhi and then anointing Stalin as CM.
After losing the Lok Sabha elections of 2004, Jayalalithaa changed gears. Among other measures, she reversed harsh decisions by revoking the anti-conversion bill and withdrawing disciplinary punishment against workers. She abandoned the H-stamp ration cards, prohibited the upper-income groups from buying PDS commodities, ensured minimum wages for agricultural labour and urban construction labour, provided free text-books up to the 10th standard.
She also arrested both the Kanchi Shankaracharyas and in the process alienated the Muttâs devotees, the Hindu-activists of her state and the general Hindu population nationwide. It resulted in the BJP breaking its alliance with her.Â
The exhilarated non-Brahmins crowned Jayalalithaa the Dravidian queen, for bettering the anti-Brahmin methods of E.V. Ramaswamy Naicker, the founder of the Dravidian movement. At the national level, most Congressmen and the âThird Frontâ parties and the communists lionised Jayalalithaa as the secular queen.
In Kanchipuram and Gummidipoondi, last year, DMKâs seven-party coalition secured a 25,000- and 33,000-vote majority, though the AIADMK got the BJPâs committed vote. After that, for the May 14 byelections this year, the DMK pressurised the Election Commission to create a pro-DMK administrative environment. Central security turned the constituencies into fortresses.
Polling personnel flew in from outside Tamil Nadu. The DMK matched AIADMK in manpower, resources and campaign. Stalin and Dayanidhi Maran, aided by 12 Union ministers from Tamil Nadu, managed the byelections. The DMK lost both seats by huge margins of 17,000 and 30,000 votes. Obviously, the UPAâs performance has not impressed Tamil Nadu.
Jayalalithaa, in effect, has bowled a reverse swing: 35,000 votes in an Assembly constituency are equivalent to 250,000 votes in one Lok Sabha constituency. If this mood holds, and the same battle line-up exists, then Jayalalithaa will secure a big victory in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections and will also bag all 39 Lok Sabha seats. That will be the end of Karunanidhi, politically.
It is impossible for Karunanidhi to beat Jayalalithaa in the Dravidian game. The byelection results prove that. Now Dalit Panthers, the communists and Ramadossâ PMK might abandon the DMK to join an upbeat AIADMK. They could inspire Vaikoâs MDMK too, thus creating a Jayalalithaa-led unbeatable Dravidian-secular alliance.
Karunanidhi neednât wait till May 2006. Jayalalithaa could hold elections this winter itself. After it loses the Assembly elections, the DMK will split and Jayalalithaa will grab the entire Dravidian vote. Any delay in Karunanidhiâs strategy will make Jayalalithaa invincible. <b>So what will creative script-writer Karunanidhi do, to outsmart Jayalalithaa? </b>
Here comes Sharad Pawar who is working overtime to string together all anti-Congress forces to build new equations. The UPA has the support of 350 MPs. <b>This government collapses if 80 MPs desert it. </b>Then someone has to fabricate a non-Congress-non-BJP coalition, and secure outside support from the BJP (136) and the Shiv Sena (11) on the condition that Narendra Modi is removed from Gujarat CMâs post, prior to effecting a change at the Centre.
A CBI-harassed BJP will gleefully support the new formation, putting forth the following conditions: the withdrawal of investigation against the NDAâs former ministers, the dropping of charges against the Shankaracharyas, Presidentâs Rule in West Bengal and Assam, the detoxification of a communist-run administration, weeding-out of bogus voters and Bangladeshis.
<b>The UPA allies are unhappy with Congressâ high-handedness. </b>So Mulayam (38), Mayawati (18), DMK (16), NCP (9), PMK (6), TRS (5), MDMK (4), Ajit Singh (3), Paswan (3), Athavle (1), Mizo (1), Nagaland (1), Sikkim (1) and Bodo (1) can woo NDAâs BJD (11), Akali (8), JD(U) (7), TDP (5), NC (2), Trinamul (2), AGP (2) and Ladakh (1), <b>together can install a 290-MP-supported, new non-Congress-non-BJP government, </b>with Karunanidhi as PM. The first Tamil PM could appeal to Tamil Nadu to vote in DMK in the Assembly elections. <b>So Karunanidhi is under pressure to decide quickly. </b>
If Karunanidhi becomes PM, Pawar will be the deputy PM as also the de facto PM. As a bonus, daughter Supriya might be made Maharashtraâs first woman chief minister with outside support from Shiv Sena-BJP. <b>So Karunanidhi has much pinch-hitting to do, to survive Jayalalithaaâs reverse swing.</b>
The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->