06-21-2005, 08:19 PM
Another speculation. Now based on percieved appeal of LKA to the Hindu middle.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress might snap into poll mode
Solitics: By Siddhartha Reddy
There is nothing static about politics. Politicians must evolve with the changing times. The two Germanys united to become one nation. India and Pakistan too could unite into one brotherhood. Advani resigned on the Jinnah issue and subsequently withdrew his resignation.
But he has not retracted from what he had said about Jinnah, so his party karyakartas are confused. They find it difficult to have as president a âJinnah admirerâ in a party that has hate-Jinnah as part of its ideology. They expect the BJP and Advani to express a singular viewpoint as otherwise the Bihar election campaign will fail. But Advani will be a national secular icon if he doesnât perform another somersault and goes the communal way.
The venom poured on him by the Sangh Parivar has made people sympathetic towards him. Itâs impossible to distinguish between the utterances made by the RSS and the Congress. They have displayed a rare unanimity of views when dealing with the partition blame-game.
The RSS and the VHP battled Advani, hounding him as if he were an enemy. While the BJP undid itself, political wisdom dictated that the Congress maintained a dignified silence. But the Congress seemed to be in a tearing hurry to condemn Jinnah and rubbish Advani in the process. The Communists too expressed visible anger.
In the process, the Communists and the Congress are voicing the RSSâ thoughts. Was Jinnah single-handedly responsible for partition? Can Nehru and Patelâs role in betraying the Mahatmaâs dream of undivided India ever be forgiven? Congress strategists are planning to generate a pro-Congress Hindu wave by wooing those Hindus who are angry with the BJP.
So the party is actually aiming at the Hindu vote by painting Jinnah as a communal hawk. In 1971, after the Bangladesh war, riding on a wave of patriotism, Indira Gandhi secured a landslide victory. In 1984, Rajiv Gandhi secured 414 MPs, making use of Hindu anger against Sikh extremists. Is Congress preparing the ground for yet another huge Hindu groundswell capitalising on BJPâs Jinnah syndrome?
But conservative Congress strategists advice against a snap poll as there is no reason to go for a mid-term poll. When 350 MPs support the UPA, thereâs no ground for burdening the exchequer with another election. However, if polls are held according to schedule, issues like high fuel price, a spiralling inflation, an over-burdened middle class will act against the UPAâs return to power.
But if the Congress can ride the Hindu wave, economy will no longer be the decisive factor. Also, this is the only way to get rid of Mulayam-Mayawatiâs casteist stranglehold on Uttar Pradesh. If elections are held as per schedule, both the BJP and the Congress will lose 50 MPs each.
The Congress will be wiped out from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Assam, Karnataka and UP. The Congress does not have the right kind of leadership in these states. And matters of corruption, anti-Congress consolidation and local polarisation are already marginalising the party.
Congress strategists are assuming that the party can gain about 100 seats from a BJP in disarray, in case there is a snap election. The BJP will lose 16 seats to the JD(S) and Bangarappa in Karnataka. In UP, it will lose seven seats to the SP and BSP, in Bihar to the CPI in the Bhoomihar constituencies and to the RJD. The BJP-RSS tussle is a liability for the NDA allies. So Congress expects that barring the JD(U) seats going to the RJD, other NDA seats will come to the Congress.
Younger strategists expect that both classes of Hindus will vote for the Congress: the hot-headed ones will either go with the Congress or abstain from voting to defeat Advaniâs BJP. And those who prefer harmony and stability will vote for the Congress anyway. Hence, winter is the ideal time for a snap poll.
But if the BJP gets time, it will be ready and the Congress can plummet to a measly figure. As, given time, an anti-Congress consolidation will intensify. As for the BJP, if Advani gets his act together and frees the party from RSS control, then the latter could withdraw all its loyalists from the BJP. It is Advani who controls the party symbol and MPs and MLAs defecting to the RSS, will lose BJP membership.
Then Advani could transform the BJP into a new centrist force, symbolising Mahatmaâs undivided Congress and JPâs united Janata Party. Nationwide, many will pour into Advaniâs BJP. Some NDA-Congress allies might form a new coalition under Advani. A new BJP can devour the Congress. So if Advani, Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh continue to rule the roost and ignore the RSS, it will be the Congress that will be losing the vote.
But if Advani gives up the party presidentâs post at the Chennai national executive meet on July 15, he might install a senior leader who will unite the factions and coordinate with the RSS and VHP. If the new president can weed out the power-brokers, and launch an all-pleasing agenda, then this united BJP can defeat the Congress.
The other scenario is Advani revamps the party and inducts a new capable team and then embarks on a Hindu agenda seeking forgiveness from his traditional supporters for his temporary secular âlapse.â This will help Mulayam and others to initiate a new secular front to battle the BJP. So in the case of a polarisation, the Congress will be marginalised.
If instead the RSS cleanses the BJP of Advani and blesses a Hindu hothead leadership, then an aggressive campaign can fetch the party 200 MPs. So the Congress tally will also fall. But the dilution of Advaniâs anti-Muslim profile might motivate some Congress allies to think about BJP. The NDA has 180 MPs. It requires 92 to reach 272.
Given time, Advani can get the required tally. So Congress strategists are advising a snap election, before BJP recovers from its Jinnah syndrome and the UPA loses its majority.
The writer can be contacted at
siddharthareddy@ deccanmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Dont know his sagacity but he is clued inot the INC circles and reflcets the thinking there. I had said earlier that LKA was trying to capture the middle with his TSP visit and statements.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress might snap into poll mode
Solitics: By Siddhartha Reddy
There is nothing static about politics. Politicians must evolve with the changing times. The two Germanys united to become one nation. India and Pakistan too could unite into one brotherhood. Advani resigned on the Jinnah issue and subsequently withdrew his resignation.
But he has not retracted from what he had said about Jinnah, so his party karyakartas are confused. They find it difficult to have as president a âJinnah admirerâ in a party that has hate-Jinnah as part of its ideology. They expect the BJP and Advani to express a singular viewpoint as otherwise the Bihar election campaign will fail. But Advani will be a national secular icon if he doesnât perform another somersault and goes the communal way.
The venom poured on him by the Sangh Parivar has made people sympathetic towards him. Itâs impossible to distinguish between the utterances made by the RSS and the Congress. They have displayed a rare unanimity of views when dealing with the partition blame-game.
The RSS and the VHP battled Advani, hounding him as if he were an enemy. While the BJP undid itself, political wisdom dictated that the Congress maintained a dignified silence. But the Congress seemed to be in a tearing hurry to condemn Jinnah and rubbish Advani in the process. The Communists too expressed visible anger.
In the process, the Communists and the Congress are voicing the RSSâ thoughts. Was Jinnah single-handedly responsible for partition? Can Nehru and Patelâs role in betraying the Mahatmaâs dream of undivided India ever be forgiven? Congress strategists are planning to generate a pro-Congress Hindu wave by wooing those Hindus who are angry with the BJP.
So the party is actually aiming at the Hindu vote by painting Jinnah as a communal hawk. In 1971, after the Bangladesh war, riding on a wave of patriotism, Indira Gandhi secured a landslide victory. In 1984, Rajiv Gandhi secured 414 MPs, making use of Hindu anger against Sikh extremists. Is Congress preparing the ground for yet another huge Hindu groundswell capitalising on BJPâs Jinnah syndrome?
But conservative Congress strategists advice against a snap poll as there is no reason to go for a mid-term poll. When 350 MPs support the UPA, thereâs no ground for burdening the exchequer with another election. However, if polls are held according to schedule, issues like high fuel price, a spiralling inflation, an over-burdened middle class will act against the UPAâs return to power.
But if the Congress can ride the Hindu wave, economy will no longer be the decisive factor. Also, this is the only way to get rid of Mulayam-Mayawatiâs casteist stranglehold on Uttar Pradesh. If elections are held as per schedule, both the BJP and the Congress will lose 50 MPs each.
The Congress will be wiped out from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Assam, Karnataka and UP. The Congress does not have the right kind of leadership in these states. And matters of corruption, anti-Congress consolidation and local polarisation are already marginalising the party.
Congress strategists are assuming that the party can gain about 100 seats from a BJP in disarray, in case there is a snap election. The BJP will lose 16 seats to the JD(S) and Bangarappa in Karnataka. In UP, it will lose seven seats to the SP and BSP, in Bihar to the CPI in the Bhoomihar constituencies and to the RJD. The BJP-RSS tussle is a liability for the NDA allies. So Congress expects that barring the JD(U) seats going to the RJD, other NDA seats will come to the Congress.
Younger strategists expect that both classes of Hindus will vote for the Congress: the hot-headed ones will either go with the Congress or abstain from voting to defeat Advaniâs BJP. And those who prefer harmony and stability will vote for the Congress anyway. Hence, winter is the ideal time for a snap poll.
But if the BJP gets time, it will be ready and the Congress can plummet to a measly figure. As, given time, an anti-Congress consolidation will intensify. As for the BJP, if Advani gets his act together and frees the party from RSS control, then the latter could withdraw all its loyalists from the BJP. It is Advani who controls the party symbol and MPs and MLAs defecting to the RSS, will lose BJP membership.
Then Advani could transform the BJP into a new centrist force, symbolising Mahatmaâs undivided Congress and JPâs united Janata Party. Nationwide, many will pour into Advaniâs BJP. Some NDA-Congress allies might form a new coalition under Advani. A new BJP can devour the Congress. So if Advani, Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh continue to rule the roost and ignore the RSS, it will be the Congress that will be losing the vote.
But if Advani gives up the party presidentâs post at the Chennai national executive meet on July 15, he might install a senior leader who will unite the factions and coordinate with the RSS and VHP. If the new president can weed out the power-brokers, and launch an all-pleasing agenda, then this united BJP can defeat the Congress.
The other scenario is Advani revamps the party and inducts a new capable team and then embarks on a Hindu agenda seeking forgiveness from his traditional supporters for his temporary secular âlapse.â This will help Mulayam and others to initiate a new secular front to battle the BJP. So in the case of a polarisation, the Congress will be marginalised.
If instead the RSS cleanses the BJP of Advani and blesses a Hindu hothead leadership, then an aggressive campaign can fetch the party 200 MPs. So the Congress tally will also fall. But the dilution of Advaniâs anti-Muslim profile might motivate some Congress allies to think about BJP. The NDA has 180 MPs. It requires 92 to reach 272.
Given time, Advani can get the required tally. So Congress strategists are advising a snap election, before BJP recovers from its Jinnah syndrome and the UPA loses its majority.
The writer can be contacted at
siddharthareddy@ deccanmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Dont know his sagacity but he is clued inot the INC circles and reflcets the thinking there. I had said earlier that LKA was trying to capture the middle with his TSP visit and statements.