07-11-2005, 12:21 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Needed, a full-time Prime Minister </b>
Arun Nehru
A great deal of political turmoil is taking place, and I wonder if this has anything to do with potential changes in the future. The Left and the Congress have disagreed to agree on several issues in the past.
But, for the first time, it seems the Left under the new leadership of Mr Prakash Karat means business. It also has the support of regional parties like the DMK and the RJD on the issue of disinvestment. This resurgence of the Left has brought the Right-wing economic team under considerable pressure.
In Bihar, things are quite fluid for the country's ruling dispensation. After all, the relations between the UPA allies - the RJD, the LJP and the Congress - continue to remain on slippery ground. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress-JD(S) alliance is on the verge of breaking because of the former's attempt to belittle Mr HD Deve Gowda. But it is not easy to sideline the JD(S) leader, who, in all probability, will act as a "major" partner in the Third Front.
The situation is no better in Andhra Pradesh where the Congress-TRS alliance is under severe pressure because of the resignation of five TRS ministers from the Y Rajshekhar Reddy Government. Things will certainly go out of control if remedial measures are not taken soon. In Maharashtra, similarly, the Congress-NCP alliance has come under strain. Complicating the picture further is the NCP's attempt to gain ground at the cost of the Shiv Sena, which in turn is going through dynastic squabbles. The problem in the Shiv Sena erupted after Mr Narayan Rane resigned from the party.
Things in Tamil Nadu can hardly be described as "smooth". There is not much to choose between the DMK and the ADMK, and as elections draw near, the former is bound to get closer to the Left to pressure the Congress. We are not looking at individual cases of dissent, but at "interests" of the UPA partners within the coalition structure. This attitude of the allies will harden as they see greater possibilities of forming the Third Front.
The only factor that can sustain and ensure the continuity of the UPA Government with Mr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister is the ability of the Congress to maintain its present Lok Sabha tally and grow beyond 145 seats. But this looks quite improbable going by the current trend of popular disenchantment against the party.
The key to the Congress's success, of course, lies in Uttar Pradesh where both the Congress and the BJP have suffered huge electoral reverses. Despite all the deliberations and chintan baithaks of the mainstream national parties, the State continues to remain under the control of regional parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party.
It is basically the differences between "key" leaders in the regional parties that inhibit the formation of the Third front. But in a coalition structure, it is the "numbers" that prevail. If one or two major States change hands, as they did in 2004, then things may alter dramatically. Something is definitely wrong with the political planning of the ruling dispensation as disputes and confrontation mark the relations of the Congress with virtually each one of its allies, beginning with the CPI(M). Likewise the Congress's relations with the NCP, TRS, RJD, JMM, DMK, JD(S) are no better.
Things are quite fluid, but one can draw conclusions of the likely election results in different States that are going to polls in the near future. <b>The Left will sweep both Kerala and West Bengal, where Trinamool Congress will be the runners-up.</b> Meanwhile the BJP is likely to stage a comeback in Uttaranchal. The Akali Dal has advantage in Punjab, while the BJP-AGP combine holds the upper hand in Assam. In Tamil Nadu, there is stiff competition between the DMK and ADMK. Then, there is Bihar where the RJD, the LJP and the BJP-led NDA alliance will fight for honours. The Congress has negligible presence in the State and may win just 10 out of 80 seats that it will be allowed to contest.
<b>The electoral reverses in these States can well result in the appointment of a new Prime Minister and Finance Minister, since it is no secret that both Human Resource Development Minister Arjun Singh and Minister for Foreign Affairs K Natwar Singh are serious contenders for the post of prime ministership. However, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee must be the front-runner on the basis of sheer experience, maturity and performance. Home Minister Shivraj Patil too cannot be ruled out.</b> <!--emo&:o--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='ohmy.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<b>Election reverses have to be blamed on someone to ensure the continuity of the "dynasty" and the economic policy, which is clearly "favourable" to the upper and middle classes</b>. Pressure is already building up as events in 2005 are leading to a confrontation between the Congress and several of its allies. Things <b>in 2006/07 will only get worse with Assembly elections in several States.</b>
<b>The Congress and the BJP got, between them, 280 seats in 2004. I think the two parties' tally will shrink to 240-250 seats, while the "others" will go up from 260 seats to between 280-300 seats</b>. There will, therefore, be space for Prime Minister from the "others" category in the near future. However, this will happen only if the regional parties get together to share power at the Centre. The Congress will always have a better chance of acceptance even with fewer seats, <b>whereas the BJP, with the looming shadow of the RSS behind it, will not be acceptable to the regional forces</b>.
On the international front, the abusive remarks by then US President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger are not at all surprising and reflect the arrogance and attitudes adopted by the two superpowers during the Cold War. <b>I was quite amused to see the apology tendered by Mr Henry Kissinger. </b>
All this is now a part of the past. As I have earlier observed on the Jinnah issue, we should not be obsessed by the past. There are lessons to be learnt from it as we step into the future. The reality is that everything was done to hurt and humiliate then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. President Nixon had kept her waiting beyond the time given for the appointment. Unfortunately, the US kept propping up an Army dictator in Islamabad when a million refugees poured into India due to religious persecution in the then East Pakistan.
Worse, the US sent its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise to frighten India and I must admit that I am a little surprised that the then US President thought that he could bully India and its Prime Minister into submission. The genocide that followed in East Pakistan was, in fact, the result of the US policy.<b> I remember those days when I was living in Kolkata and watched with horror the images of the killings of innocent people - nearly 200,000 people were slaughtered by the Pakistan Army, till the Indian forces moved in to liberate Bangladesh.</b>
The Western world blatantly ignored the warnings and it is sad that the genocide went unpunished. It seems, the slaughter in Bangladesh did not warrant any trial in the International Court of Justice or even with the War Crimes Tribunal. This is the tragedy of the Third World and the appalling attitude of the West continues till today, especially towards genocide in many parts of Africa.
We have excellent relations with the US, which are based on mutual need and reciprocity. I think US President George W Bush reflected the current mood as he praised Mrs Indira Gandhi. The response of the Government in India, therefore, shows maturity. The Left has already voiced its objection on "several" agreements initiated between India and the US. This is unfortunate as partners in a "coalition" are expected to discuss and then frame policies. Clearly, something is wrong in the system. We need a full-time Prime Minister.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Arun Nehru
A great deal of political turmoil is taking place, and I wonder if this has anything to do with potential changes in the future. The Left and the Congress have disagreed to agree on several issues in the past.
But, for the first time, it seems the Left under the new leadership of Mr Prakash Karat means business. It also has the support of regional parties like the DMK and the RJD on the issue of disinvestment. This resurgence of the Left has brought the Right-wing economic team under considerable pressure.
In Bihar, things are quite fluid for the country's ruling dispensation. After all, the relations between the UPA allies - the RJD, the LJP and the Congress - continue to remain on slippery ground. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress-JD(S) alliance is on the verge of breaking because of the former's attempt to belittle Mr HD Deve Gowda. But it is not easy to sideline the JD(S) leader, who, in all probability, will act as a "major" partner in the Third Front.
The situation is no better in Andhra Pradesh where the Congress-TRS alliance is under severe pressure because of the resignation of five TRS ministers from the Y Rajshekhar Reddy Government. Things will certainly go out of control if remedial measures are not taken soon. In Maharashtra, similarly, the Congress-NCP alliance has come under strain. Complicating the picture further is the NCP's attempt to gain ground at the cost of the Shiv Sena, which in turn is going through dynastic squabbles. The problem in the Shiv Sena erupted after Mr Narayan Rane resigned from the party.
Things in Tamil Nadu can hardly be described as "smooth". There is not much to choose between the DMK and the ADMK, and as elections draw near, the former is bound to get closer to the Left to pressure the Congress. We are not looking at individual cases of dissent, but at "interests" of the UPA partners within the coalition structure. This attitude of the allies will harden as they see greater possibilities of forming the Third Front.
The only factor that can sustain and ensure the continuity of the UPA Government with Mr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister is the ability of the Congress to maintain its present Lok Sabha tally and grow beyond 145 seats. But this looks quite improbable going by the current trend of popular disenchantment against the party.
The key to the Congress's success, of course, lies in Uttar Pradesh where both the Congress and the BJP have suffered huge electoral reverses. Despite all the deliberations and chintan baithaks of the mainstream national parties, the State continues to remain under the control of regional parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party.
It is basically the differences between "key" leaders in the regional parties that inhibit the formation of the Third front. But in a coalition structure, it is the "numbers" that prevail. If one or two major States change hands, as they did in 2004, then things may alter dramatically. Something is definitely wrong with the political planning of the ruling dispensation as disputes and confrontation mark the relations of the Congress with virtually each one of its allies, beginning with the CPI(M). Likewise the Congress's relations with the NCP, TRS, RJD, JMM, DMK, JD(S) are no better.
Things are quite fluid, but one can draw conclusions of the likely election results in different States that are going to polls in the near future. <b>The Left will sweep both Kerala and West Bengal, where Trinamool Congress will be the runners-up.</b> Meanwhile the BJP is likely to stage a comeback in Uttaranchal. The Akali Dal has advantage in Punjab, while the BJP-AGP combine holds the upper hand in Assam. In Tamil Nadu, there is stiff competition between the DMK and ADMK. Then, there is Bihar where the RJD, the LJP and the BJP-led NDA alliance will fight for honours. The Congress has negligible presence in the State and may win just 10 out of 80 seats that it will be allowed to contest.
<b>The electoral reverses in these States can well result in the appointment of a new Prime Minister and Finance Minister, since it is no secret that both Human Resource Development Minister Arjun Singh and Minister for Foreign Affairs K Natwar Singh are serious contenders for the post of prime ministership. However, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee must be the front-runner on the basis of sheer experience, maturity and performance. Home Minister Shivraj Patil too cannot be ruled out.</b> <!--emo&:o--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='ohmy.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<b>Election reverses have to be blamed on someone to ensure the continuity of the "dynasty" and the economic policy, which is clearly "favourable" to the upper and middle classes</b>. Pressure is already building up as events in 2005 are leading to a confrontation between the Congress and several of its allies. Things <b>in 2006/07 will only get worse with Assembly elections in several States.</b>
<b>The Congress and the BJP got, between them, 280 seats in 2004. I think the two parties' tally will shrink to 240-250 seats, while the "others" will go up from 260 seats to between 280-300 seats</b>. There will, therefore, be space for Prime Minister from the "others" category in the near future. However, this will happen only if the regional parties get together to share power at the Centre. The Congress will always have a better chance of acceptance even with fewer seats, <b>whereas the BJP, with the looming shadow of the RSS behind it, will not be acceptable to the regional forces</b>.
On the international front, the abusive remarks by then US President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger are not at all surprising and reflect the arrogance and attitudes adopted by the two superpowers during the Cold War. <b>I was quite amused to see the apology tendered by Mr Henry Kissinger. </b>
All this is now a part of the past. As I have earlier observed on the Jinnah issue, we should not be obsessed by the past. There are lessons to be learnt from it as we step into the future. The reality is that everything was done to hurt and humiliate then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. President Nixon had kept her waiting beyond the time given for the appointment. Unfortunately, the US kept propping up an Army dictator in Islamabad when a million refugees poured into India due to religious persecution in the then East Pakistan.
Worse, the US sent its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise to frighten India and I must admit that I am a little surprised that the then US President thought that he could bully India and its Prime Minister into submission. The genocide that followed in East Pakistan was, in fact, the result of the US policy.<b> I remember those days when I was living in Kolkata and watched with horror the images of the killings of innocent people - nearly 200,000 people were slaughtered by the Pakistan Army, till the Indian forces moved in to liberate Bangladesh.</b>
The Western world blatantly ignored the warnings and it is sad that the genocide went unpunished. It seems, the slaughter in Bangladesh did not warrant any trial in the International Court of Justice or even with the War Crimes Tribunal. This is the tragedy of the Third World and the appalling attitude of the West continues till today, especially towards genocide in many parts of Africa.
We have excellent relations with the US, which are based on mutual need and reciprocity. I think US President George W Bush reflected the current mood as he praised Mrs Indira Gandhi. The response of the Government in India, therefore, shows maturity. The Left has already voiced its objection on "several" agreements initiated between India and the US. This is unfortunate as partners in a "coalition" are expected to discuss and then frame policies. Clearly, something is wrong in the system. We need a full-time Prime Minister.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->