08-23-2005, 02:09 AM
This guy keeps writing about this mid term poll strategy. Please analzye it before dissing it. From Deccan Chronicle, 23 Aug., 2005
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Will Sonia opt for mid-term poll?
By Siddhartha Reddy
This week, Lok Sabha MPs better take a good look at Parliament House; it might be their last before a surprise general election. <b>Immediately after the Bihar elections in the third week of November, and just before Parliamentâs winter session begins on November 20, chances are that the Lok Sabha will be dissolved on November 19 (Indira Gandhiâs birthday), facilitating fresh mid-term polls in early February 2006.</b>
Sonia Gandhiâs version of Indira Gandhiâs Garibi Hatao programme is the rural employment guarantee scheme, designed to generate vote. It will fool some voters initially, but gradually it will degenerate into just another scheme to line the pockets of a few. Before that happens, a good monsoon, a bountiful agricultural production and the current mess in the BJP might goad the Congress to go for a mid-term poll.
Lok Sabha MPs never decide on the dissolution of Parliament, but the party presidentâs Rajya Sabha advisers do. Snap polls will happen if the Communists withdraw support, allies migrate but fail to form an alternate government with BJPâs outside support, or if the Congress seeks a bigger mandate.
<b>The Communists </b>are now occupying the space generally occupied by Opposition parties. They <b>wield absolute power without any responsibility.</b> Policies are being âretailoredâ to fit the Communist design. They have hijacked governance. <b>Congress has conceded Bengal, Kerala and Tripura as ransom.</b> The Communists have excellent rapport with Sonia Gandhi and will never rock the boat. In case of an early poll, they could gain 10 seats or lose 20.
As for the Congressâ other allies, most are happy for they are dominating their home States and marginalising the Congress. They have unquestioned authority in their ministries. Resource mobilisation is on in full swing. They are being wooed every day by a desperate Opposition, keen to secure new allies to form an alternate government. So they are quite keen for this situation to continue for five years. But allies like the JMM and Ajit Singh who are busy lobbying to be part of the Cabinet, are not averse to early polls. <b>TRS, helpless in determining policy, wonât win a single seat and therefore fears elections and will merge into the Congress just before the polls.</b>
Leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Chandrababu Naidu, George Fernandes, Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Parkash Singh Badal, Om Prakash Chautala and Farooq Abdullah would welcome a mid-term poll. They are expecting to win 55, 25, 15, 12, 9, 8 and 4 seats respectively. Jayalalithaa, who would prefer to delink Lok Sabha from the Assembly polls, is confident of winning 30 seats. After losing to Jayalalithaa in the Assembly polls of May 2006, Karunanidhi might go with the new BJP (Karunanidhi refuses to deal with Advani-led BJP), before July 2006 monsoon
session to form an alternate government at the Centre, after gaining support from Mulayam, Pawar, Paswan, Gowda, Ajit Singh and TRS. <b>Destabilisation could lead to 2006-2007 winter mid-term elections. By then if petrol prices cross Rs 60 per litre and diesel Rs 40, voters will defeat the Congress.</b>
<b>This winter the RSS will remove Advani from the party presidentâs post and install a parivar friendly leader. But the BJP will not be battle ready before the end of 2006 even if it gets a new leader. At present the party is in a mess and this confusion will continue for months.</b> It will lose many seats in the States where it is in a direct fight with the Congress. It will register a zero in UP, losing to Mulayam and Mayawati, to Gowda and Bangarappa in Karnataka, to Lalu in Bihar. It will lose in Orissa and Punjab to the Congress. In Maharashtra (except Mumbai), the Shiv Senaâs disintegration will create a Congress-NCP wave.
In case there is a snap-poll in winter, Soniaâs advisers expect the Congress to win 200 seats: Andhra 30, Rajasthan 22, Maharashtra 20 (not Mumbai seats), Madhya Pradesh 14, Gujarat 12, Punjab 9, Jharkhand 7, Orissa 7, Assam 8, Bengal 6, Kerala 5, Chhattisgarh 5, Karnataka 6, Himachal 3, Uttaranchal 3, Haryana 3. Two each in Tamil Nadu, J&K, Arunachal, Meghalaya, Manipur, Bihar and Goa; and one each in Chandigarh, Pondicherry, Dadra Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Andaman, Lakshadweep. In Uttar Pradesh, Sonia Gandhi is forging a Congress-Mayawati-Ajit Singh alliance, and is expecting to win 20, 20, 10 seats respectively.
<b>After the mid-term poll, the Congress (200) can form a government with the Communists (60 plus) and the BSP (20 plus), keeping other allies out of the government.</b> The Congress needs Mayawati to defeat Mulayam in Uttar Pradeshâs Assembly elections.
But the Congress is undecided on a mid-term poll leadership. <b>Manmohan Singh and the voters do not share any chemistry. It is only the rich who donât vote, who approve of Manmohan. He will not get the Muslim or Hindu vote, or the vote of the farmers, workers and the lower middle-classes. He has not devised any economic programme to eradicate poverty. Nor has he taken any initiative to address problems related to education, health, housing, road, water etc. </b> But projecting any non-dynasty person would marginalise the dynasty and Rahul does not yet have acceptability. So the Congress will project Sonia Gandhi as PM, confident that its allies would come round after the elections.
However, the Congress cannot succeed in a mid-term poll with the leaders it has in the Cabinet and AICC. <b>Mid-term poll requires preparation. In September at the AICC plenary session, Sonia Gandhi will once again become Congress president and will announce vote-mobilising programmes. She will overhaul the CWC, AICC, Union and State Cabinets. She will replace the chief ministers of Uttaranchal, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Assam.
After her US trip, she will finalise State-specific strategies on issues, alliances and campaign rhetoric, and Lok Sabha candidates after poll announcement. </b>Until then, the Congress will deny poll plans. <b>The Bihar results of November 15 are crucial.</b> If Nitish Kumar wins, Sonia Gandhi will shelve mid-term poll plans. <b>But a RJD-Congress victory will make her go ahead with her plans.</b>
The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There are reports that Cong wants to run with RJD while hunting with Paswan to prevent Nitish Kumar. The news from Bihar is Lallu is not favored to return. But then he has defied many experts before.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Will Sonia opt for mid-term poll?
By Siddhartha Reddy
This week, Lok Sabha MPs better take a good look at Parliament House; it might be their last before a surprise general election. <b>Immediately after the Bihar elections in the third week of November, and just before Parliamentâs winter session begins on November 20, chances are that the Lok Sabha will be dissolved on November 19 (Indira Gandhiâs birthday), facilitating fresh mid-term polls in early February 2006.</b>
Sonia Gandhiâs version of Indira Gandhiâs Garibi Hatao programme is the rural employment guarantee scheme, designed to generate vote. It will fool some voters initially, but gradually it will degenerate into just another scheme to line the pockets of a few. Before that happens, a good monsoon, a bountiful agricultural production and the current mess in the BJP might goad the Congress to go for a mid-term poll.
Lok Sabha MPs never decide on the dissolution of Parliament, but the party presidentâs Rajya Sabha advisers do. Snap polls will happen if the Communists withdraw support, allies migrate but fail to form an alternate government with BJPâs outside support, or if the Congress seeks a bigger mandate.
<b>The Communists </b>are now occupying the space generally occupied by Opposition parties. They <b>wield absolute power without any responsibility.</b> Policies are being âretailoredâ to fit the Communist design. They have hijacked governance. <b>Congress has conceded Bengal, Kerala and Tripura as ransom.</b> The Communists have excellent rapport with Sonia Gandhi and will never rock the boat. In case of an early poll, they could gain 10 seats or lose 20.
As for the Congressâ other allies, most are happy for they are dominating their home States and marginalising the Congress. They have unquestioned authority in their ministries. Resource mobilisation is on in full swing. They are being wooed every day by a desperate Opposition, keen to secure new allies to form an alternate government. So they are quite keen for this situation to continue for five years. But allies like the JMM and Ajit Singh who are busy lobbying to be part of the Cabinet, are not averse to early polls. <b>TRS, helpless in determining policy, wonât win a single seat and therefore fears elections and will merge into the Congress just before the polls.</b>
Leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Chandrababu Naidu, George Fernandes, Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Parkash Singh Badal, Om Prakash Chautala and Farooq Abdullah would welcome a mid-term poll. They are expecting to win 55, 25, 15, 12, 9, 8 and 4 seats respectively. Jayalalithaa, who would prefer to delink Lok Sabha from the Assembly polls, is confident of winning 30 seats. After losing to Jayalalithaa in the Assembly polls of May 2006, Karunanidhi might go with the new BJP (Karunanidhi refuses to deal with Advani-led BJP), before July 2006 monsoon
session to form an alternate government at the Centre, after gaining support from Mulayam, Pawar, Paswan, Gowda, Ajit Singh and TRS. <b>Destabilisation could lead to 2006-2007 winter mid-term elections. By then if petrol prices cross Rs 60 per litre and diesel Rs 40, voters will defeat the Congress.</b>
<b>This winter the RSS will remove Advani from the party presidentâs post and install a parivar friendly leader. But the BJP will not be battle ready before the end of 2006 even if it gets a new leader. At present the party is in a mess and this confusion will continue for months.</b> It will lose many seats in the States where it is in a direct fight with the Congress. It will register a zero in UP, losing to Mulayam and Mayawati, to Gowda and Bangarappa in Karnataka, to Lalu in Bihar. It will lose in Orissa and Punjab to the Congress. In Maharashtra (except Mumbai), the Shiv Senaâs disintegration will create a Congress-NCP wave.
In case there is a snap-poll in winter, Soniaâs advisers expect the Congress to win 200 seats: Andhra 30, Rajasthan 22, Maharashtra 20 (not Mumbai seats), Madhya Pradesh 14, Gujarat 12, Punjab 9, Jharkhand 7, Orissa 7, Assam 8, Bengal 6, Kerala 5, Chhattisgarh 5, Karnataka 6, Himachal 3, Uttaranchal 3, Haryana 3. Two each in Tamil Nadu, J&K, Arunachal, Meghalaya, Manipur, Bihar and Goa; and one each in Chandigarh, Pondicherry, Dadra Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Andaman, Lakshadweep. In Uttar Pradesh, Sonia Gandhi is forging a Congress-Mayawati-Ajit Singh alliance, and is expecting to win 20, 20, 10 seats respectively.
<b>After the mid-term poll, the Congress (200) can form a government with the Communists (60 plus) and the BSP (20 plus), keeping other allies out of the government.</b> The Congress needs Mayawati to defeat Mulayam in Uttar Pradeshâs Assembly elections.
But the Congress is undecided on a mid-term poll leadership. <b>Manmohan Singh and the voters do not share any chemistry. It is only the rich who donât vote, who approve of Manmohan. He will not get the Muslim or Hindu vote, or the vote of the farmers, workers and the lower middle-classes. He has not devised any economic programme to eradicate poverty. Nor has he taken any initiative to address problems related to education, health, housing, road, water etc. </b> But projecting any non-dynasty person would marginalise the dynasty and Rahul does not yet have acceptability. So the Congress will project Sonia Gandhi as PM, confident that its allies would come round after the elections.
However, the Congress cannot succeed in a mid-term poll with the leaders it has in the Cabinet and AICC. <b>Mid-term poll requires preparation. In September at the AICC plenary session, Sonia Gandhi will once again become Congress president and will announce vote-mobilising programmes. She will overhaul the CWC, AICC, Union and State Cabinets. She will replace the chief ministers of Uttaranchal, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Assam.
After her US trip, she will finalise State-specific strategies on issues, alliances and campaign rhetoric, and Lok Sabha candidates after poll announcement. </b>Until then, the Congress will deny poll plans. <b>The Bihar results of November 15 are crucial.</b> If Nitish Kumar wins, Sonia Gandhi will shelve mid-term poll plans. <b>But a RJD-Congress victory will make her go ahead with her plans.</b>
The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There are reports that Cong wants to run with RJD while hunting with Paswan to prevent Nitish Kumar. The news from Bihar is Lallu is not favored to return. But then he has defied many experts before.