12-20-2005, 09:46 AM
<b>MAY BE AN OLD NEWS, I DON'T KNOW:</b>
India rising: A medium-term perspective
⢠India has come a long way from its inward-looking economic strategy of over 50
years ago. Economic liberalisation and the gradual opening up to the world have
boosted growth and lifted millions of people out of poverty. This paper argues that
the continuation of the reform process will allow India to stay on a high growth
path of roughly 6% per year on average over the next 10 to 15 years. If reforms
were pursued more aggressively, real GDP growth could reach 7%-8% per year.
⢠India will thus become the fastest growing economy out of 34 developed and
emerging markets during that period and the worldâs third largest economy by
2020. Moreover, its GDP per capita will double, from roughly USD 2,500 today (at
purchasing power parity) to almost USD 5,000 in 2020. Favourable demographics,
increasing investment in education and infrastructure and further integration
with the world economy are the factors behind our projections.
⢠The implications of the projected growth trajectory are manifold. First, a larger,
richer consumer market will emerge. Second, consumption patterns will change,
with expenditure on healthcare and transport and communications growing substantially.
Third, household savings will increase, given the large amount of people
entering the working years phase. Fourth, there will be rising demand for diversified
financial instruments to invest those savings.
⢠IT-related services, textiles, the auto-ancillary industry and pharmaceuticals are
expected to gain dynamism given Indiaâs comparative advantages and current
sectoral trends. The banking sector has an enormous catch-up potential which is
likely to be unleashed by the new domestic investment landscape, gradual privatisation
and opening up to foreign banks.
http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNE...00000187531.pdf
India rising: A medium-term perspective
⢠India has come a long way from its inward-looking economic strategy of over 50
years ago. Economic liberalisation and the gradual opening up to the world have
boosted growth and lifted millions of people out of poverty. This paper argues that
the continuation of the reform process will allow India to stay on a high growth
path of roughly 6% per year on average over the next 10 to 15 years. If reforms
were pursued more aggressively, real GDP growth could reach 7%-8% per year.
⢠India will thus become the fastest growing economy out of 34 developed and
emerging markets during that period and the worldâs third largest economy by
2020. Moreover, its GDP per capita will double, from roughly USD 2,500 today (at
purchasing power parity) to almost USD 5,000 in 2020. Favourable demographics,
increasing investment in education and infrastructure and further integration
with the world economy are the factors behind our projections.
⢠The implications of the projected growth trajectory are manifold. First, a larger,
richer consumer market will emerge. Second, consumption patterns will change,
with expenditure on healthcare and transport and communications growing substantially.
Third, household savings will increase, given the large amount of people
entering the working years phase. Fourth, there will be rising demand for diversified
financial instruments to invest those savings.
⢠IT-related services, textiles, the auto-ancillary industry and pharmaceuticals are
expected to gain dynamism given Indiaâs comparative advantages and current
sectoral trends. The banking sector has an enormous catch-up potential which is
likely to be unleashed by the new domestic investment landscape, gradual privatisation
and opening up to foreign banks.
http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNE...00000187531.pdf