Pakistan - News and Discussion 6

[Naresh]

<!--QuoteBegin-Mudy+May 28 2006, 07:23 AM-->QUOTE(Mudy @ May 28 2006, 07:23 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->God! How they lie so openly?
Yesterday they were heading for worst debt, suddenly all books are showing reverse. GDP is showing remarkable growth within days.  <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Even ENRON can't show such numbers.
[right][snapback]51778[/snapback][/right]<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<b>Mudy Ji :</b>

Lying comes Naturally to the Lotas!

AAA : Some time back – I do not remember when – I had made a comparison between the GDP “Declarations” various Pakistani Lotas – Mush the Tush, Shortcut As Is and the Ilk – and the latest Statement by the State Bank of Pakistan.

The statement by Shortcut As Is stating that Pakistani Per Capita Income has risen to USD 846 and the GDP around the USD 135 Billion Mark :

<b>Per capita income in Pakistan rises to $846, says PM</b>

<b>ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shuakat Aziz on Saturday said that the latest data shows per capita income in the country has risen to US$846 due to the government’s prudent economic policies over the last five years.</b> Talking to a delegation of the All Pakistan Newspapers Society (APNS) led by Mir Shakil-ur-Rehman at the PM House, he said the government intended to provide relief to the common man through a number of measures in the forthcoming budget for 2006-07. He said the government had already taken some bold steps to check domestic prices of sugar and cement. <b>He told the delegation that due to the economic reforms, the country’s debt had come down from over 100 percent of GDP in 1999 to less than 60 percent at present.</b> He said the privatisation process of various public sector entities was clear and transparent. app

I now compare the “Statement by Prime Minister Aziz with the figures from the <b>State Bank of Pakistan’s Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy 2005 – National Income, Saving and Investment Section – Page Nine :</b>

http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/stats/Pa...Book/Chap_1.pdf

1.1 Gross National Product - a. At Current Factor Cost for the Pakistani Financial Year 2005 i.e. from 01-07-2005 to 30-06-2006, Provisional Figures :

<b>4. Gross Domestic Product (FC) : Pak. Rs. 6,129.676 Billion = USD 102 Billion

7. Gross Domestic Product (MP) : Pak. Rs. 6,547.590 Billion = USD 109 Billion

9. Gross National Product (FC) : Pak. Rs.6,254.900 Billion = USD 104 Billion

10. Gross National Product (MP) : Pak Rs. 6,672.814 = USD 111 Billion

11. Population (in millions) : 152.53

12. Per capita income (FC) in Rs. 41,008 = USD 683

13. Per capita income (MP) in Rs. 43,748 = USD 729

Conversion Rate : USD 1 = Pak. Rs. 60</b>

The Population figure for Mid Financial Year 2005-2006 i.e. 31-12-2005 of 152.53 is beyond belief :

You will note form the following Web site of the Pakistan Population Census Organization’s Population Clock Estimated Population of Pakistan on May 28, 2006 : 157,187,000.

http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/pco/index.html

As such one can safely assume that on 31-12-2005 the Pakistani Estimated Population figure would be 156 Million.

Thus the Per Capita Income (MP) based on a GNP (MP) of USD 111 Billion and a Population of 156 Million would be USD 711

<b>According to the CIA Web Site the Estimated Pakistani Population in July 2006 is 165 Million.</b>

In this case the Per Capita Income Basis a Population of 162 Million would equate to USD 685. Again if it was based on Factor Cost then it would be further reduced to USD 642. <b>Short Cut As Is has pulled out a figure of USD 846 as Pakistanis F Y 2005 Per Capita Income</b>

BBB : Probable Reason for Pakistani Lotas “Jacking Up the GDP and thus the Per Capita Income”

From the above – Page Nine :

10. Gross National Product (MP) :

F Y 2001 : Pak Rs. 4,108.172 = USD 68 Billion

F Y 2002 : 4,425,364

FY 2003 : 4,974,654

FY 2004 : 5,657,141

FY 2005 : Pak Rs. 6,672.814 = USD 111 Billion

The Pakistani Total Nation Debt has been hovering around the USD 70 Billion Mark (External + Internal)

Thus the reduction of Pakistan’s National Debt from 100% of the GDP to 60% of the GDP has been achieved by “Jacking Up the GDP” – A clear case of creative Accounting which is contrary to the State Bank of Pakistan Figures!

I cannot say about the Pakistani Internal Debt but the External Debt is way beyond the Official figures are there have been Development Loans as well as Issuance of Bonds to the Tune of USD 1.5 to 2 Billion.

The State Bank of Pakistan – showing the External Debt and Liabilities - is repeating the End December 2005 Figures and is not quoting the End March 2006 Figures, for obvious Reasons.

PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES : END PERIOD : 20-May-06 :

IN USD BILLIONS

NET RESERVES WITH SBP : 10.6581

NET RESERVES WITH OTHER BANKS :02.3890

TOTAL LIQUID RESERVES : 13.0471

Of the Net Reserves with SBP over USD 2 Billion have been deposited by Foreign Countries

The Net Reserves with Other Banks are not under the Control of the State Bank of Pakistan or the National Fiscal Authorities.

As such in Real Terms Pakistan’s External Debt is about USD Eight Billions whereas, in my opinion, the Foreign Debt should be close to USD 38 Billion.

<b>To End :</b> Short Cut As Is has used Enron Type “Creative Accounting” Methods to show a Rosy Picture.

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->