06-16-2006, 10:04 AM
Friday, June 16, 2006
LATE NEWS: Differing perceptions stymie India-Pakistan talks
By Khalid Hasan
WASHINGTON: There is an asymmetry of perceptions and expectations between India and Pakistan, which could become the stumbling block in their bilateral dialogue, according to a new report.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) report released on Thursday concludes that Indian policymakers want to move slowly, hoping that an improved bilateral environment will help create the conditions for negotiating the most contentious issues, including Kashmir.
India and Pakistanâs leaders insist that the normalisation process is irreversible but while the two countries have stabilised their relationship, reducing the risk of war, many challenges lie ahead. One of the greatest to sustaining the process is an asymmetry of perceptions and expectations. Indian policymakers want to move slowly, hoping that an improved bilateral environment will help create the conditions for negotiating the most contentious issues, including Kashmir. Pakistanâs military government has made the expansion of ties on other equally vital areas of bilateral cooperation, such as trade, conditional on demonstrated progress on Kashmir. President Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly warned that the composite dialogueâs fate rests on movement towards resolving the Kashmir dispute.
The ICG believes that Pakistanâs militaryâs leadership should abandon its âunrealistic expectationsâ. It will take many more years of talks and the participation and support of elected governments in both states before the dialogue process can yield a Kashmir solution. Indeed, the two nuclear-armed states should focus efforts on stabilising their cold peace. Confidence-building measures (CBMs) on improved communication links and people-to-people contacts could help create the necessary environment but their impact largely depends on political will to implement them in both spirit and form. Kashmir-related CBMs such as the border crossings and trade would win India and Pakistan the goodwill of Kashmiris in the areas under their control but if these CBMs are subverted, the gain will be short lived.
The Brussels-based group advises that to prevent Pakistanâs âhardlinersâ from undermining the process and to deprive its military of an excuse to opt out of the talks, India would be best served and would itself benefit by reaching an agreement about the Siachen Glacier. The international community could aid in overcoming mistrust by providing technical assistance for verification and compliance. It notes that the ceasefire has held and the process survived thus far, even in the face of âgrave provocations,â should not lull the international community, in particular the US, into believing that a war is no longer possible. Constant engagement and encouragement are needed to ensure that the two sides remain committed to the process. The US and other influential international actors must also maintain pressure on Pakistan to end its support for the militants and to curb all cross-Line of Control (LoC) infiltration.
A reduction of infiltration and violence in Jammu and Kashmir would benefit all parties - India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. âJihadi organisations are as much a threat to the Pakistani citizens and state as to India, and it would best serve Pakistan to eliminate their infrastructure. If violence and terrorist attacks recede in J&K, India will be in a position to reduce its troop presence in Kashmir, and Kashmiris can rebuild their lives in peace, no longer targeted by the militants or forced to live in a virtual state of siege,â ICG stresses.
The report says, âSince the large-scale presence of security forces and human rights violations fuel Kashmiri resentment and play into the hands of spoilers, India should reassess and recalibrate its extensive military deployment and reform its security agencies. Pakistan, too, needs to rein in its security agencies in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, reducing a presence that is resented by the local population. But improvement of the security environment alone will not reduce alienation unless Kashmiris have a political voice in a process that will determine their future. Representatives of Kashmiris on both sides of the LOC, regardless of their political affiliation, should be consulted in identifying, adopting and implementing Kashmir-related CBMs.â
The International Crisis Group advises India and Pakistan, as a first step, to hold parallel discussions with Kashmiri representatives, regardless of their political affiliation, and when feasible, include them into their dialogue process. Islamabad must not exclude those parties that reject Kashmirâs accession to Pakistan. And New Delhi must talk to all Kashmiri stakeholders, in government and opposition, including âhardlineâ as well as moderate APHC factions so long as they give up the gun. With international support, and by sustaining the dialogue process, India and Pakistan will, over time, build the necessary goodwill to tackle the most complex and contentious issues that divide them, including Kashmir. Until then, both should concentrate on stabilising their cold peace, countering the threats that could derail the normalisation process.
LATE NEWS: Differing perceptions stymie India-Pakistan talks
By Khalid Hasan
WASHINGTON: There is an asymmetry of perceptions and expectations between India and Pakistan, which could become the stumbling block in their bilateral dialogue, according to a new report.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) report released on Thursday concludes that Indian policymakers want to move slowly, hoping that an improved bilateral environment will help create the conditions for negotiating the most contentious issues, including Kashmir.
India and Pakistanâs leaders insist that the normalisation process is irreversible but while the two countries have stabilised their relationship, reducing the risk of war, many challenges lie ahead. One of the greatest to sustaining the process is an asymmetry of perceptions and expectations. Indian policymakers want to move slowly, hoping that an improved bilateral environment will help create the conditions for negotiating the most contentious issues, including Kashmir. Pakistanâs military government has made the expansion of ties on other equally vital areas of bilateral cooperation, such as trade, conditional on demonstrated progress on Kashmir. President Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly warned that the composite dialogueâs fate rests on movement towards resolving the Kashmir dispute.
The ICG believes that Pakistanâs militaryâs leadership should abandon its âunrealistic expectationsâ. It will take many more years of talks and the participation and support of elected governments in both states before the dialogue process can yield a Kashmir solution. Indeed, the two nuclear-armed states should focus efforts on stabilising their cold peace. Confidence-building measures (CBMs) on improved communication links and people-to-people contacts could help create the necessary environment but their impact largely depends on political will to implement them in both spirit and form. Kashmir-related CBMs such as the border crossings and trade would win India and Pakistan the goodwill of Kashmiris in the areas under their control but if these CBMs are subverted, the gain will be short lived.
The Brussels-based group advises that to prevent Pakistanâs âhardlinersâ from undermining the process and to deprive its military of an excuse to opt out of the talks, India would be best served and would itself benefit by reaching an agreement about the Siachen Glacier. The international community could aid in overcoming mistrust by providing technical assistance for verification and compliance. It notes that the ceasefire has held and the process survived thus far, even in the face of âgrave provocations,â should not lull the international community, in particular the US, into believing that a war is no longer possible. Constant engagement and encouragement are needed to ensure that the two sides remain committed to the process. The US and other influential international actors must also maintain pressure on Pakistan to end its support for the militants and to curb all cross-Line of Control (LoC) infiltration.
A reduction of infiltration and violence in Jammu and Kashmir would benefit all parties - India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. âJihadi organisations are as much a threat to the Pakistani citizens and state as to India, and it would best serve Pakistan to eliminate their infrastructure. If violence and terrorist attacks recede in J&K, India will be in a position to reduce its troop presence in Kashmir, and Kashmiris can rebuild their lives in peace, no longer targeted by the militants or forced to live in a virtual state of siege,â ICG stresses.
The report says, âSince the large-scale presence of security forces and human rights violations fuel Kashmiri resentment and play into the hands of spoilers, India should reassess and recalibrate its extensive military deployment and reform its security agencies. Pakistan, too, needs to rein in its security agencies in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, reducing a presence that is resented by the local population. But improvement of the security environment alone will not reduce alienation unless Kashmiris have a political voice in a process that will determine their future. Representatives of Kashmiris on both sides of the LOC, regardless of their political affiliation, should be consulted in identifying, adopting and implementing Kashmir-related CBMs.â
The International Crisis Group advises India and Pakistan, as a first step, to hold parallel discussions with Kashmiri representatives, regardless of their political affiliation, and when feasible, include them into their dialogue process. Islamabad must not exclude those parties that reject Kashmirâs accession to Pakistan. And New Delhi must talk to all Kashmiri stakeholders, in government and opposition, including âhardlineâ as well as moderate APHC factions so long as they give up the gun. With international support, and by sustaining the dialogue process, India and Pakistan will, over time, build the necessary goodwill to tackle the most complex and contentious issues that divide them, including Kashmir. Until then, both should concentrate on stabilising their cold peace, countering the threats that could derail the normalisation process.