Pakistan - News and Discussion -7

Naresh · 07-31-2006, 12:23 AM

[center]THE BURSTING OF THE GWADAR BUBBLE <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/clap.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='clap.gif' /> [/center]

[center]The truth about the Gwadar port project <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/Flush.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='Flush.gif' /> [/center]

Part I

The government claims that the Gwadar project will change the face of the earth and the fate of Balochistan; that it will turn the area into a special economic zone where banks will open their branches, five star hotels will be built, offshore banking will begin, factories, warehouses and storage will be set up, and the tourism industry will be promoted in the area. An export processing zone will be set up making Gwadar a regional hub of trade and investment activities, a very attractive place for direct foreign investment. Most important of all, it is regarded as a panacea for the social, economic and political problems of Balochistan, although the people of the province have realised the fallacious nature of these claims. It is also considered of strategic importance, an alternative to Persian Gulf ports, and a gateway to Central Asia. A new addition to the potentials of the project is that it will be an energy corridor for China.

There are no facts and figures to support these claims or to indicate how the benefits will be realised. The ground realities are different from the official claims. The facts are briefly as follows.

The Gwadar port is already a failed project. A mini-port was built in 1988-92 at a cost of Rs1,623 million including the foreign exchange component of Belgian Franks of 1,427 million, equivalent to Rs749 million, arranged by the contractor. The port facilities included 3 berths of 3.5 meter depth capable of accommodating ships of up to 1000 DWT, one 80 ton crane, two 25 ton cranes each, a dredger and support equipment. No ship worth the name ever called the port. No investigations were carried out to identify the causes of the failure of the port which still hold good.

The viability of a port depends on its hinterland. Gwadar has none. The area behind the coast for a 600 km depth is barren, and comprises a desert and hilly terrain. It does not generate or attract a single ton of sea worthy traffic. Hence all exports or imports will come from and go to other areas of the country.

So far, Gwadar is linked with Karachi only by a 653-km-long coastal highway which takes off from N-25 between Sonmiani and Uthal and goes 80 km west of Gwadar up to the Iran border. The correct distance between Karachi and Gwadar is not known. It varies from source to source. A most favourable figure of 650 km is used for evaluation. Other links are under construction. All traffic to and from Gwadar will have to pass through Karachi and incur an additional cost of carrying goods for another 650 km by road. No sane person will by-pass Karachi just to avail port facilities at Gwadar 650 km away. The other two links, namely, Gwadar-Ratodero motorway and Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab-Panjgur-Surab road, are under construction and will take years to complete.

Even after completion of under-construction road links and proposed rail links, all areas proposed to be served by Gwadar port will remain closer to Karachi. The nearest point of transit trade of Afghanistan and Central Asian States is Chaman. Its distance from Gwadar by the shortest route (Gwadar-Panjgur-Surab-Quetta-Chaman) will be 1,066 km as compared to 816 km from Karachi to Chaman, 250 km longer than from Karachi. The nearest point where Gwadar is proposed to be linked with the rest of the country is Ratodero on N-55 (Indus Highway). Its distance from Gwadar is 892 km as compared to 494 km from Karachi, a difference of 398 km.

In the case of a rail link, the distance of 515 km between Gwadar and Dalbandin via Panjgur is an underestimation. The direct distance by road from Gwadar to Panjgur is 411 km. From Panjgur to Dalbandin, the air route distance on the map is 212 km. Thus the distance from Gwadar to Dalbandin will be more than 623 km. Quetta is another 343 km from Dalbandin and Chaman is 142 km from Quetta. If the distance between Gwadar and Dalbandin is taken as 515 km, the distance of Chaman from Gwadar by rail will be 1,000 km as compared to 1,003 km from Karachi via Rohri, a difference of only three kilometres which will be more than offset by higher speeds on the main line. If the distance from Gwadar to Dalbandin is taken as 623 km, which is more likely to be the case, the distance to Chaman will be 105 km longer.

It may be noted that Karachi and Chaman are located on the same longitude and Karachi and Gwadar on the same latitude. As such, Karachi Chaman and Karachi Gwadar make two sides of a right angle triangle. Gwadar-Chaman is the hypotenuse of the triangle which will be longer than any of the two sides. This means that the distance between Gwadar and Chaman will remain longer no matter how direct and straight a route is followed.

It may also be noted that three roads linking Gwadar with the road network of the country join N-25 (Karachi-Kalat-Quetta-Chaman) at Uthal, Khuzdar and Surab and km 120, 385 and 477 from Karachi respectively. In comparison to the coastal highway, the 650 km Gwadar Khuzdar road will save the 148 km distance to Quetta whereas the Gwadar-Panjgur-Surab route (727 km) will save only 15 km over the Gwadar Khuzdar road. The relative costs and benefits of competitive road facilities do not seem to have been considered at all.

Besides the increase in the cost of transport because of longer distances, unit rates would also be higher for movements to and from Gwadar as compared to Karachi. The latter is a big industrial and commercial city and generates a large volume of passenger and goods traffic. A large number of goods' vehicles are always available and return loads are often available to and from upcountry. Therefore, charges are competitive and minimal. In the case of Gwadar, imports and exports, if any, would not be so synchronised as to provide return loads to all trucks visiting the town. Transporters would cover round trip costs from one direction. As such, unit rates could be 50 to 100 per cent higher than for Karachi.

Although roads have their own utility and are the sole means of transport for upcountry movements, water transport, is more than 10 times cheaper than road transport. Where both land and water transport are available, water transport would have a far greater cost advantage over land transport. Movement of many bulky commodities which cannot bear the cost of land transport would become feasible by sea. Existing berths in Gwadar can handle ships of 1000 DWT.

Therefore, goods to and from Gwadar can be carried by sea to Karachi and distributed to inland and foreign destinations, <!--emo& Confused

tupid--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/pakee.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='pakee.gif' /> at far less cost than the coastal highway.* If one is to indulge in such absurdities as to import goods at Gwadar and carry them to Karachi for onward distribution, it should be done at a lower cost by using coastal shipping rather than road transport.

To be concluded

The writer is a transport economist and served as chief of the National Transport Research Centre in Islamabad. Email: abdul.majeed@dsl.net.pk

1. It is finally proved that Gwadar is a scam for the Generals, Admirals and Air Marshal along with the Feudals as well as the Lotastaani Land Mafia in their get rich âIMMIDIATELYâ Scheme.

2. * : Only a Lotastaani will initially bring the Goods to Gwadar and then transport it by sea to Karachi thereby entailing triple tranfer time expenses i.e. First Unload the Goods at Gwadar, Store it in Warehouses, then load on Ship and again unload in Karachi i.e. pay for three operations â Two in Gwadar and One in Karachi â rather than pay for one Operation in Karachi.

Lotastaani Stupidity : Pain in the baad

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />

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