This book is the 1990 update to the blockbluster, Megatrends, by John Naisbitt from 1982. The date in the title of this book is a reference to the end point of the forecast period.
I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses.
I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include:
(1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology.
(2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts.
(3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected.
(4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism.
(5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies.
(6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand.
(7) women become much more important in leadership roles.
(8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor.
(9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience.
(10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual."
The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty.
As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature.
On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view.
Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method.
Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of these trends is likely, but what will be the new ones? You'll have to think about that for yourself.
After you have finished enjoying this book and thinking about what it means for your future, I suggest that you consider how you can expand your own individual potential. As the Army likes to say, "Be all that you can be."
Use the irresistible trends to your advantage for breakthrough gains!
Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future (Hardcover)
by John Naisbitt
One of the consistent themes in recent Western literature is a habit of comparing East Asian culture and society with those in the West, and specifically, to pick out those features of East Asian society that were unique and intrinsice to East Asia. Known as Orientalism, this genre had a condenscending undercurrent and brought forth images of coolies pulling rickshaws, corrupt officials smoking in opium dens, and Western sailors catching "yellow fever" in places like Bangkok and Singapore.
From the 1970s' onward, Orientalism has been replaced by growing praise of the economies of the East Asian countries, especially those with large Chinese populations such as Taiwan, Malaysia and China itself. Boasting the virtues of good education, disciplined populations, and strong family ties, Westerners have authored thousands of books on the growing power of the Orient. This book, Megatrends Asia, is just one in a long line of such works. The author uses empirical and statistical data to draw out 8 trends that are transforming the region into a world economic powerhouse. These trends are presented as primarily a shift from a rural, state-directed economy to a networked, consumer-driven, city-based economy. All this is true, but the author fails to fully explore several trends that though are not as positive and beneficial, are still as important in dictating the future of this region. Specifically, these trends are
1. The growing dependence on imported energy. Notice China's overtures to various West Asian countries due to oil and natural gas needs.
2. The spread of AIDS, heart disease, obesity, and other "lifestyle" illnesses.
3. The growth of military spending AND foreign military involvement in the various East Asian countries.
4. The growth in the black market of this region. Forget about the Hondas made in Japan or the seafood farmed in Thailand. What is really making dollars is all the illegal activity such as intellectual property infringement, the sex trade, the production and marketing of dirt cheap consumer goods sporting brand names from Europe's fashion centers...
5. The mass, and often forced, migration of whole communities to make way for factories, highways, and other features of an industrial economy.
6. The rise of militant Islam. Especially noticeable in Indonesia and Malaysia, but also present in Singapore, Phillipines and Thailand, this foreboding trend is making the orient the next battle ground in Bush's War on Terror.
Overall, this book is good, but not great. It correctly recognizes and explores major, region-wide changes, but ignores or minimizes several other major changes.
n Megatrends Asia, Naisbitt does an excellent job in presenting the next eight major shifts taking place in Asia. His use of precise examples and interviews clarifies the points he is trying to express. For example, he sites specific countries and their new infrastructure projects. He presents specific statistics, like with Asian credit and the number of credit cards being issued. Acer Group is mentioned as an example of the rise in Asian brand names.
However, I do not believe Naisbitt give adequate defense to the negative issues surrounding these shifts and their impact on the region. He briefly mentions pollution, environment, human rights, but he does not put much emphasis on them. Overall, I think Naisbitt presented a positive and fairly accurate prediction of the future. But he (we) should not ignore the inevitable negatives surrounding these shift in Asia.END
Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future (Hardcover)
by John Naisbitt
I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses.
I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include:
(1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology.
(2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts.
(3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected.
(4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism.
(5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies.
(6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand.
(7) women become much more important in leadership roles.
(8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor.
(9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience.
(10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual."
The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty.
As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature.
On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view.
Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method.
Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of these trends is likely, but what will be the new ones? You'll have to think about that for yourself.
After you have finished enjoying this book and thinking about what it means for your future, I suggest that you consider how you can expand your own individual potential. As the Army likes to say, "Be all that you can be."
Use the irresistible trends to your advantage for breakthrough gains!
Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future (Hardcover)
by John Naisbitt
One of the consistent themes in recent Western literature is a habit of comparing East Asian culture and society with those in the West, and specifically, to pick out those features of East Asian society that were unique and intrinsice to East Asia. Known as Orientalism, this genre had a condenscending undercurrent and brought forth images of coolies pulling rickshaws, corrupt officials smoking in opium dens, and Western sailors catching "yellow fever" in places like Bangkok and Singapore.
From the 1970s' onward, Orientalism has been replaced by growing praise of the economies of the East Asian countries, especially those with large Chinese populations such as Taiwan, Malaysia and China itself. Boasting the virtues of good education, disciplined populations, and strong family ties, Westerners have authored thousands of books on the growing power of the Orient. This book, Megatrends Asia, is just one in a long line of such works. The author uses empirical and statistical data to draw out 8 trends that are transforming the region into a world economic powerhouse. These trends are presented as primarily a shift from a rural, state-directed economy to a networked, consumer-driven, city-based economy. All this is true, but the author fails to fully explore several trends that though are not as positive and beneficial, are still as important in dictating the future of this region. Specifically, these trends are
1. The growing dependence on imported energy. Notice China's overtures to various West Asian countries due to oil and natural gas needs.
2. The spread of AIDS, heart disease, obesity, and other "lifestyle" illnesses.
3. The growth of military spending AND foreign military involvement in the various East Asian countries.
4. The growth in the black market of this region. Forget about the Hondas made in Japan or the seafood farmed in Thailand. What is really making dollars is all the illegal activity such as intellectual property infringement, the sex trade, the production and marketing of dirt cheap consumer goods sporting brand names from Europe's fashion centers...
5. The mass, and often forced, migration of whole communities to make way for factories, highways, and other features of an industrial economy.
6. The rise of militant Islam. Especially noticeable in Indonesia and Malaysia, but also present in Singapore, Phillipines and Thailand, this foreboding trend is making the orient the next battle ground in Bush's War on Terror.
Overall, this book is good, but not great. It correctly recognizes and explores major, region-wide changes, but ignores or minimizes several other major changes.
n Megatrends Asia, Naisbitt does an excellent job in presenting the next eight major shifts taking place in Asia. His use of precise examples and interviews clarifies the points he is trying to express. For example, he sites specific countries and their new infrastructure projects. He presents specific statistics, like with Asian credit and the number of credit cards being issued. Acer Group is mentioned as an example of the rise in Asian brand names.
However, I do not believe Naisbitt give adequate defense to the negative issues surrounding these shifts and their impact on the region. He briefly mentions pollution, environment, human rights, but he does not put much emphasis on them. Overall, I think Naisbitt presented a positive and fairly accurate prediction of the future. But he (we) should not ignore the inevitable negatives surrounding these shift in Asia.END
Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future (Hardcover)
by John Naisbitt