Pakistan - News and Discussion -7

[Naresh]

[center]<b><span style='font-size:21pt;line-height:100%'>India is putting the squeeze on General Musharraf</span></b> <!--emo&:flush--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/Flush.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='Flush.gif' /><!--endemo--> [/center]

Despite General Pervez Musharraf’s clear signal to India through a recent interview to an Indian publication that Pakistan is prepared to do its best to keep the dialogue process moving, <b>the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, has said that New Delhi is not about to soften its hard line. Dr Singh is reported to have categorically stated that the peace process between India and Pakistan would not go forward until Islamabad ended its support for terrorist groups.</b> “This cannot go forward if Pakistan does not deal with terrorism firmly. What has Pakistan done to control terrorism? Both countries have a common obligation to ensure that terrorist elements are firmly dealt with.” The remarks came in response to a question about whether his meeting with General Musharraf on the sidelines of the upcoming Non-Aligned Movement meeting in Havana would help jump-start the process which has been stalled since the Mumbai bomb blasts on July 11.

The elements in India and Pakistan that were hoping for a breakthrough at Havana may have to wait a little longer for the process to begin lumbering again. There are many factors at work. First, the process, even before the Mumbai blasts, had begun to slow down considerably. Since that event, however, India has found the space it was looking for to put the brakes on it. Dr Singh is troubled at home. There are fissures within the coalition, as also tensions in the Congress party. There is the BJP factor. The Bharatiya Janata Party has decided to go on an offensive and to counter it Dr Singh has to project a tough image. The internal compulsions are bad enough. To them are also added the regional factors. India is definitely fishing in Balochistan and while Pakistan played down that factor as long as the process was chugging along, it has now become more vocal in its allegations. The August 26 operation that killed Nawab Akbar Bugti prompted statements from New Delhi and Kabul that Pakistan has retaliated against, telling both to mind their own business and not interfere in Pakistan’s internal affairs.

This was expected. <b><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>But the fact is that India knows that General Musharraf is in trouble at home, with the entire opposition now baying for his blood. Some influential elements in Delhi have been arguing since the Mumbai blasts — even earlier — that India should, among other things, help the opposition in Pakistan get rid of General Musharraf.</span></b> These analysts believe that General Musharraf cannot be dealt with and India needs a democratic Pakistan for lasting peace. This assessment seems to be governing the logic of New Delhi’s policies right now. It is helped by the fact that given the direction of the process, Delhi was already planning to further cut its speed.

On the plus side, it is difficult for India to continue with this policy for too long. Putting on the pressure is one thing; breaking engagement is quite another. Dr Singh is right in saying that one cannot choose one’s neighbours. So engaging Pakistan is a compulsion even if it may not be to Delhi’s liking. The only problem is that negativity quite often starts creating its own compulsions. Instead of adding value, it tends to unravel even that which has been achieved. <b>Dr Singh must weigh the consequences of any further backsliding.<span style='font-size:12pt;line-height:100%'>*</span></b>

<b><span style='font-size:12pt;line-height:100%'>* :</span> Cross Border Islamic Terrorism.</b>

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->