03-09-2004, 11:01 PM
<b>Split in LTTE - The Clash of the Tamil Warlords</b>
B. Raman
SUMMARY
Ever since the ceasefire accordbetween the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE was signed two years ago, there were persistent reports of unhappiness amongst the Tamils of the East over what was seen by them as unjustified overtures to the Muslims by the northern leadership of the LTTE, over the lack of recognition of the Easterners, who had fought and won most of the battles of the LTTE against the Sri Lanka Army and over the perceived discriminatory treatment meted out to them in the North. Did this unhappiness force Karuna, the Eastern warlord, to act against Prabhakaran against his will or did he take advantage of it to defy Prabhakaran and assert his independence? Will he succeed in his defiance? Will the fighters of the East carry out his orders or disobey him? If they obeyed his orders, will there be a military conflict between the North and the East, leading to a resumption of the violence and damaging the peace process? Even if Prabhakaran succeeds in having Karuna eliminated, will he be able to re-assert his control over the East? Will his authority remain as strong as before?
These are very relevant questions, but it would be difficult to answer them at present. All one could say is that Karuna's position is not as strong as he seems to think it is and not as weak as Prabhakaran seems to wish it is. Even presuming that the overwhelming majority of Karuna's followers remain loyal to him, which is doubtful since they may not wish to contribute to a weakening of the struggle for Tamil Eelam, the two forces would be evenly matched and the outcome uncertain.
<b>......</b>
B. Raman
SUMMARY
Ever since the ceasefire accordbetween the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE was signed two years ago, there were persistent reports of unhappiness amongst the Tamils of the East over what was seen by them as unjustified overtures to the Muslims by the northern leadership of the LTTE, over the lack of recognition of the Easterners, who had fought and won most of the battles of the LTTE against the Sri Lanka Army and over the perceived discriminatory treatment meted out to them in the North. Did this unhappiness force Karuna, the Eastern warlord, to act against Prabhakaran against his will or did he take advantage of it to defy Prabhakaran and assert his independence? Will he succeed in his defiance? Will the fighters of the East carry out his orders or disobey him? If they obeyed his orders, will there be a military conflict between the North and the East, leading to a resumption of the violence and damaging the peace process? Even if Prabhakaran succeeds in having Karuna eliminated, will he be able to re-assert his control over the East? Will his authority remain as strong as before?
These are very relevant questions, but it would be difficult to answer them at present. All one could say is that Karuna's position is not as strong as he seems to think it is and not as weak as Prabhakaran seems to wish it is. Even presuming that the overwhelming majority of Karuna's followers remain loyal to him, which is doubtful since they may not wish to contribute to a weakening of the struggle for Tamil Eelam, the two forces would be evenly matched and the outcome uncertain.
<b>......</b>