Pakistan News and Discussion-8

[Naresh]

[center]<b><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>Pakistan may be facing political instability</span></b>[/center]

<b>WASHINGTON : Opposition parties may try to take advantage of the prevailing feeling of unrest about the present government, which could create political instability in Pakistan, an American news intelligence and analysis portal warned this weekend.</b>

In a commentary on Pakistan, the Texas-based news and analysis service, Stratfor, took note of the arrest of eight militants with ties to Al Qaeda who were allegedly involved in attempted rocket attacks in the Rawalpindi-Islamabad area. The analysis pointed out that the incident had come “amid growing talk of discontent within the military with President Gen Pervez Musharraf, and amid criticism from senior military intelligence officials - signalling that Musharraf’s support within the military could be waning.” It added that although Gen Musharraf is not faced with the prospect of losing power “any time soon”, opposition parties would try to take advantage of this situation.

<b>Stratfor also quoted from a report in Asia Times, Hong Kong, from its Pakistan correspondent alleging that a coup plot against President Musharraf had been uncovered soon after his return from the United States. According to him, more than 40 people had been arrested, most of them mid-ranking air force officers.</b> The conspirators were uncovered when an air force officer used a cell phone to activate a rocket aimed at the president’s residence in Rawalpindi. The rocket was recovered, and its activating mechanism, also a cell phone, revealed the officer’s phone number. <b>The correspondent in question has been known in the past for his “colourful” reporting.</b>

According to Stratfor, although a coup attempt is unlikely, it is possible that some PAF personnel may have been arrested, including junior officers. The rockets found could have been more of a than anything else. Even so, these developments indicate that Gen Musharraf might be slowly losing support from his core constituency in the military establishment, the analysis ventured. Gen Musharraf’s recent statements “show he is under a lot of strain”. He told a gathering with journalists that if moderates do not prevail over extremists in the upcoming elections, Pakistan as envisioned by the Quaid-i-Azam would be no more. <b>The Stratfor analysis referred to two former ISI chiefs who had made critical remarks about the president’s performance. Stratfor noted that former Al Qaeda military commander Abu Zubaydah had told interrogators that one of his high-ranking contacts was the late PAF chief Air Chief Marshal Mushaf Ali Mir. “Stratfor also has learned that <span style='font-size:12pt;line-height:100%'>many former mid-level ISI officials with the rank of major and colonel have familial ties with Islamist militants who are veterans of the 1979-89 war against the Soviet army in Afghanistan ... Clearly, the pressure is rising on Musharraf regarding the ISI controversy, but most significant is that he is being criticised from within. This is something his civilian political opponents will be looking to exploit. Should this situation lead to political unrest, his fellow generals may not be very keen to continue supporting him,”</span> Stratfor speculated.</b>

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