10-25-2006, 07:18 PM
<!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> Great game in Afghanistan
Outsiders win, but war goes on
by Major-Gen Ashok K. Mehta
George Bushâs dinner diplomacy between feuding Presidents Karzai and Musharraf did not work. But on the ground, Nato commanders are claiming success.
Just give me another 1000 troops and the Taliban will be on its knees (in Helmund), says Brig Ed Butler, British Commander in Southern Afghanistan. Lt Gen David Richards, the overall Force Commander of the UN-mandated ISAF and Nato-led forces, agrees. He has a sound plan: to defeat the Taliban in six months in Helmund and Kandahar provinces by winning hearts and minds of the locals through creating jobs and improving governance.
On July 20, though, Richards had described the situation in Afghanistan as close to anarchy. Major-Gen Eric Olson 18 months ago observed that the Taliban âis a force in declineâ. US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Peter Pace, does not consider the situation worrying. But the frequency of suicide attacks in Kandahar and Kabul makes both look like Baghdad. These confusing signals sum up the present situation.
The Supreme Commander of Nato, Gen James Jones, feels that an additional 2500 troops are required but none of the 36 countries contributing troops was prepared to provide more. So the already stretched British may have to do it. Winter is a few weeks away so troops have to get in fast.
Till end last month, 50 suicide attacks had been carried out this year out of a total of 70 so far. And with mounting casualties among security forces, the situation is quite unstable despite a series of offensives against the Taliban. But this war can only succeed if the war against opium is fought simultaneously.
The latest deal between Pakistan and pro-Taliban and Al-Qaida tribals in Waziristan has given the militants a virtual sanctuary. How Musharraf has sold this deal to the Americans is not a mystery. Musharraf is probably going to eat the cake and have it too without giving the US anything more than assurances to deliver Laden.
Like Operation Iraqi Freedom in Iraq, where conventional victory came easily, Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan also ensured a swift regime-change. But the Iraqis and Afghans are both enduring lack of freedom as near-civil war conditions prevail there. Although Afghanistan is not as bad, it seems headed in that direction. With a resurgent Taliban, fleeting tactical successes create the illusion of victory. As historian Olaf Caroe observed: âWars in Afghanistan begin after theyâve endedâ.
Crippled by war and violence for 25 years, a new Afghanistan with a constitution, elected Parliament and President has emerged. Unfortunately the US is employing the Iraq template with greater emphasis on military forces rather than the political process. For example there is no intra-Afghan dialogue to establish a multi-ethnic government which could lead to improved governance.
Corruption, extortion and drug trading are destabilising the government whose control over Kabul and outlying provinces is being challenged by the Taliban. Restoring the peace process by ending violence must be the top priority. The escalation in guerrilla war by Taliban is instigated by Pakistanâs renewed quest for strategic depth. So far this year, nearly 1000 deaths have been reported. Some put a figure as high as 1600 for the last four months alone. The new Taliban has a force of 12,000 fighters deployed in the South with strongholds in Kandahar, Helmund, Zabul and Urozgan. The force is Pashtoon-dominated and receives support from NWFP and Baluchistan.
Taliban leaders like Mullah Omar are based in Quetta. Gen Richards is reported to have given Musharraf his address during their recent meeting. The day after this meeting, Pakistan announced the capture of 45 Taliban in Quetta. So this cat-and-mouse game goes on.
The Taliban strategy is to bleed foreign forces and make them leave Afghanistan as the Soviets were made to do in 1988. A Taliban offensive in Southern Afghanistan took temporary control of Garamsehr and Nawa I Barakzayi. Intense fighting took place in Panjwayi which is the birthplace of the Taliban movement. IEDs and suicide attacks and occasional assaults on posts are the favoured weapons of Taliban.
In the last three months coalition troops launched their biggest-ever operations called Mountain Thrust, Medusa, and Mountain Fury. Gen Jones claimed that 1000 Taliban were killed during Operation Medusa for six Nato fatalities.
The Afghan National Army is authorised to have 70,000 troops and 37,000 policemen. Only a 36,000-strong Army is operational. The actual need is for 150,000 troops. 20,000 US troops and 19,000 Nato forces from 36 countries with complex rules of engagement are involved. On August 1, 8000 Nato troops extended security operations to Southern Afghanistan replacing US forces.
Security operations are accompanied with development projects. 23 provincial reconstruction teams, more than half under US command, are deployed outside Kabul. The Afghan government is required to disarm illegal groups by end 2007. Since 2005, nearly 150 troops and 2000 civilians have been killed.
The biggest problem facing Afghanistan is opium. Poppy products and drugs constitute half of the $ 7 billion economy. Therefore many call Afghanistan a narcotics state. About 20,6700 hectares of land is under opium cultivation since 2003. 3.8 per cent of the population is addicted to drugs. The EU apparently invests $ 3 billion in counter-narcotics strategies but the actual amounts will be much lower.
Helmund is called the poppy province. And this is where the Taliban are the strongest. The official role of security forces is to help in the destruction of the poppy crop but as this is destroying the means of livelihood, it goes counter to winning hearts and minds. The poppy war has to be fought alongside the war against the Taliban. The economy is severely debilitated as Afghanistan raises only 18 per cent of its budget from its own resources. On top of this, 4.5 million refugees have returned from Iran and Pakistan. The US alone has provided $ 11 billion between 2001-06.
Despite geographical constraints, India has established an impressive foothold in Afghanistan. It is hosting a meet of 22 Foreign Ministers of donor countries at Kabul in November. India has been involved from Day 1 for rebuilding a new Afghanistan.
About 3000 Indians are working in Afghanistan on Indian projects. The thrust areas are infrastructural development, humanitarian assistance and institutional and human resource development. India has pledged $ 650 million of which $200 million has already been used. The reconstruction projects are chosen by the Afghan government. India has donated 400 army trucks, 35 mini buses and three Airbus aircraft in addition to 1000 scholarships for students and training for diplomats. ITBP and CISF personnel are deployed for security of projects and consulates which are located at Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar i Sharif.
At an India-Pakistan conference in Colombo in June, former DG ISI, Lt Gen Asad Durrani, suggested that India and Pakistan should cooperate rather than confront each other in Afghanistan. âLet us make it the ninth item of the composite dialogueâ he added. For India, Afghanistan is strategically so vital that any serious offer by Pakistan cannot be passed. This is worth exploring. India must also not keep all its eggs in the Karzai basket.
The US-Afghanistan-Pakistan tripartite border commission will need to monitor Pakistanâs deal with the Taliban as also verify the presence of the Taliban headquarters in Quetta.
A recent leak from a US strategy report suggests that the new Taliban is to be inducted into the Karzai government. This will allow Musharraf to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds. So the new Great Game will ensure US presence in Afghanistan with access to Central Asia while Pakistan would regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan. But the war will go on.
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> Great game in AfghanistanOutsiders win, but war goes on
by Major-Gen Ashok K. Mehta
George Bushâs dinner diplomacy between feuding Presidents Karzai and Musharraf did not work. But on the ground, Nato commanders are claiming success.
Just give me another 1000 troops and the Taliban will be on its knees (in Helmund), says Brig Ed Butler, British Commander in Southern Afghanistan. Lt Gen David Richards, the overall Force Commander of the UN-mandated ISAF and Nato-led forces, agrees. He has a sound plan: to defeat the Taliban in six months in Helmund and Kandahar provinces by winning hearts and minds of the locals through creating jobs and improving governance.
On July 20, though, Richards had described the situation in Afghanistan as close to anarchy. Major-Gen Eric Olson 18 months ago observed that the Taliban âis a force in declineâ. US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Peter Pace, does not consider the situation worrying. But the frequency of suicide attacks in Kandahar and Kabul makes both look like Baghdad. These confusing signals sum up the present situation.
The Supreme Commander of Nato, Gen James Jones, feels that an additional 2500 troops are required but none of the 36 countries contributing troops was prepared to provide more. So the already stretched British may have to do it. Winter is a few weeks away so troops have to get in fast.
Till end last month, 50 suicide attacks had been carried out this year out of a total of 70 so far. And with mounting casualties among security forces, the situation is quite unstable despite a series of offensives against the Taliban. But this war can only succeed if the war against opium is fought simultaneously.
The latest deal between Pakistan and pro-Taliban and Al-Qaida tribals in Waziristan has given the militants a virtual sanctuary. How Musharraf has sold this deal to the Americans is not a mystery. Musharraf is probably going to eat the cake and have it too without giving the US anything more than assurances to deliver Laden.
Like Operation Iraqi Freedom in Iraq, where conventional victory came easily, Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan also ensured a swift regime-change. But the Iraqis and Afghans are both enduring lack of freedom as near-civil war conditions prevail there. Although Afghanistan is not as bad, it seems headed in that direction. With a resurgent Taliban, fleeting tactical successes create the illusion of victory. As historian Olaf Caroe observed: âWars in Afghanistan begin after theyâve endedâ.
Crippled by war and violence for 25 years, a new Afghanistan with a constitution, elected Parliament and President has emerged. Unfortunately the US is employing the Iraq template with greater emphasis on military forces rather than the political process. For example there is no intra-Afghan dialogue to establish a multi-ethnic government which could lead to improved governance.
Corruption, extortion and drug trading are destabilising the government whose control over Kabul and outlying provinces is being challenged by the Taliban. Restoring the peace process by ending violence must be the top priority. The escalation in guerrilla war by Taliban is instigated by Pakistanâs renewed quest for strategic depth. So far this year, nearly 1000 deaths have been reported. Some put a figure as high as 1600 for the last four months alone. The new Taliban has a force of 12,000 fighters deployed in the South with strongholds in Kandahar, Helmund, Zabul and Urozgan. The force is Pashtoon-dominated and receives support from NWFP and Baluchistan.
Taliban leaders like Mullah Omar are based in Quetta. Gen Richards is reported to have given Musharraf his address during their recent meeting. The day after this meeting, Pakistan announced the capture of 45 Taliban in Quetta. So this cat-and-mouse game goes on.
The Taliban strategy is to bleed foreign forces and make them leave Afghanistan as the Soviets were made to do in 1988. A Taliban offensive in Southern Afghanistan took temporary control of Garamsehr and Nawa I Barakzayi. Intense fighting took place in Panjwayi which is the birthplace of the Taliban movement. IEDs and suicide attacks and occasional assaults on posts are the favoured weapons of Taliban.
In the last three months coalition troops launched their biggest-ever operations called Mountain Thrust, Medusa, and Mountain Fury. Gen Jones claimed that 1000 Taliban were killed during Operation Medusa for six Nato fatalities.
The Afghan National Army is authorised to have 70,000 troops and 37,000 policemen. Only a 36,000-strong Army is operational. The actual need is for 150,000 troops. 20,000 US troops and 19,000 Nato forces from 36 countries with complex rules of engagement are involved. On August 1, 8000 Nato troops extended security operations to Southern Afghanistan replacing US forces.
Security operations are accompanied with development projects. 23 provincial reconstruction teams, more than half under US command, are deployed outside Kabul. The Afghan government is required to disarm illegal groups by end 2007. Since 2005, nearly 150 troops and 2000 civilians have been killed.
The biggest problem facing Afghanistan is opium. Poppy products and drugs constitute half of the $ 7 billion economy. Therefore many call Afghanistan a narcotics state. About 20,6700 hectares of land is under opium cultivation since 2003. 3.8 per cent of the population is addicted to drugs. The EU apparently invests $ 3 billion in counter-narcotics strategies but the actual amounts will be much lower.
Helmund is called the poppy province. And this is where the Taliban are the strongest. The official role of security forces is to help in the destruction of the poppy crop but as this is destroying the means of livelihood, it goes counter to winning hearts and minds. The poppy war has to be fought alongside the war against the Taliban. The economy is severely debilitated as Afghanistan raises only 18 per cent of its budget from its own resources. On top of this, 4.5 million refugees have returned from Iran and Pakistan. The US alone has provided $ 11 billion between 2001-06.
Despite geographical constraints, India has established an impressive foothold in Afghanistan. It is hosting a meet of 22 Foreign Ministers of donor countries at Kabul in November. India has been involved from Day 1 for rebuilding a new Afghanistan.
About 3000 Indians are working in Afghanistan on Indian projects. The thrust areas are infrastructural development, humanitarian assistance and institutional and human resource development. India has pledged $ 650 million of which $200 million has already been used. The reconstruction projects are chosen by the Afghan government. India has donated 400 army trucks, 35 mini buses and three Airbus aircraft in addition to 1000 scholarships for students and training for diplomats. ITBP and CISF personnel are deployed for security of projects and consulates which are located at Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar i Sharif.
At an India-Pakistan conference in Colombo in June, former DG ISI, Lt Gen Asad Durrani, suggested that India and Pakistan should cooperate rather than confront each other in Afghanistan. âLet us make it the ninth item of the composite dialogueâ he added. For India, Afghanistan is strategically so vital that any serious offer by Pakistan cannot be passed. This is worth exploring. India must also not keep all its eggs in the Karzai basket.
The US-Afghanistan-Pakistan tripartite border commission will need to monitor Pakistanâs deal with the Taliban as also verify the presence of the Taliban headquarters in Quetta.
A recent leak from a US strategy report suggests that the new Taliban is to be inducted into the Karzai government. This will allow Musharraf to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds. So the new Great Game will ensure US presence in Afghanistan with access to Central Asia while Pakistan would regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan. But the war will go on.