04-06-2004, 02:58 AM
SRI LANKA: Result of April 2nd Elections: What does it portend? Update 62.
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
Our fears expressed in the previous update (update 61) that Sri Lanka is heading towards a fractured future appear to be coming true.
It may take a week or more for all the results to be announced (30 seats to be declared yet), but the result declared so far gives a fair indication of what it portends in the near future.
The Freedom alliance (UPFA) led by Chandrika Kumaratungheâs party (PA) is leading with 47 percent of votes polled, with UNP trailing with 39 percent of the votes, followed by the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the newly emerging party of Buddhist Clergy (JHU) with 6 percent each.
This election was different from the previous ones in the following aspects.
* Barring Batticola where pre poll violence was due to other reasons, the current election was the least violent.
* Tamils from both North and East voted in large numbers. Though many of the voters living in LTTE controlled areas had to trek many Kilometres to vote in clustered booths set up in government controlled areas, they did it in large numbers. The reason given is that the LTTE unlike earlier elections openly encouraged voters to go out and vote for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). There were allegations that many of the votes were rigged, but even if there were some, the fact remains that compared to previous elections, the Tamil voters for the first time in last twenty years have come in droves to vote. Does that mean that the LTTE which was instrumental in letting the voters in the region under their control to vote believes in the democratic way of the people to choose their candidates? The answer is NO- as the LTTE wanted the Tamils to vote for a single political group-the TNA which besides being the handmaiden of LTTE would act as an influential bloc both inside and outside the Sri Lankan Parliament. If there was any doubt, one should watch the pre elections campaign of R. Sampanthan of TULF, a veteran politician where he repeatedly talked of two nations- the Tamil and Sinhala nation besides declaring the LTTE as the true and authentic representative of Tamils!
* Another feature in this election has been the entry of Buddhist monks, in an outfit called Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). Even before polling, they had declared that if elected they would prove to be the deciding factor in the formation of the government. They have garnered sufficient number of votes to emerge as the third largest group of the majority community after Freedom Party and UNP. While they could still not be the deciding factor, in a coalition government, their influence particularly in the ethnic issue cannot be under estimated.
* Unlike the earlier elections, there were many allegations of misuse of state media by the Presidentâs party.
In a system of proportional representation, current results would mean that the Freedom Alliance will not have an absolute majority and will have to take the help of other minor parties like the JHU.
The UNP in the run up to the elections had made out that this election could be a referendum on the cease fire agreement and the peace talks that followed. On the other hand UPFA, particularly the PA of President Chandrika, made out that Wickremasinghe had given in too much in the cease fire agreement. The JVP which is a part of the alliance of the President, has formally made its stand known that it is for only decentralisation and not even for devolution to the Tamils, leave alone the acceptance of the federalism concept. We had indicated in our update 58 (note- 211) that the agreement between SLFP and the JVP closes any hope of rapprochement between the two warring leaders President Chandrika and Prime Minister Wickremasinghe. The present election results have confirmed our fears and there is no doubt that the election results are a set back to the peace process. Now comes the leading monk of JHU who has declared that his party is not for any federalism or devolution but would work for autonomy of all the villages in Sri Lanka!
With such disparate views, it is not clear how Chandirka who is likely to form the government from her party will be able to manage and salvage the peace talks that are under suspended animation for quite some time.
A new element in the whole scenario is the situation in the east. The feud between the northern leadership and the former commander of East Karuna has reached a point of no return.
In the first stage the LTTE used its highly efficient propaganda machine to vilify Karuna as someone who had misappropriated the funds of LTTE, that he is isolated and that no force will be used to bring him to order. The leaders who were posted as replacements are still holed up in Wanni and have not returned to Batticola to take charge.
When this did not work and Karuna did not repent, the LTTE headquarters had to issue a detailed statement addressing directly the "fighters and divisional heads in Batticola and Amparai". What was startling and unacceptable was that Karuna was sentenced to death in absentia- We quote
"Making use of cadres and people who are not aware of the truth, Karuna is planning to betray the freedom struggle and our national spirit and thereby falling into the hands of traitors and enemies. The blood that was shed and the sacrifices made are being bartered by Karuna. To safeguard our nation and our people, it has been decided to get rid of Karuna from our soil."
When threats have not worked, the feud has reached the third stage when killer squads of Pottu Amman of LTTE have infiltrated into Batticola and there have been selective assassinations. Three eminent persons from Batticola of whom one was the candidate for the elections have been shot by unknown assassins, suspected to be from LTTE. The Sri Lankan media has reported on botched assassination attempt on Karuna himself. Such selective assassinations have not worked and Karunaâs outfit is still in tact. It looks that people of Batticola are still solidly behind Karuna.
The stage is therefore set for open confrontation between the northern group of LTTE and Karunaâs forces. Clashes will be inevitable. This will have serious consequences for Cease fire agreement and the peace process itself. In the absence of SLMM monitors, the Sri Lankan Army will inevitably get involved creating further complications to cease fire itself. There will be a temptation for some vested interests to use the split within LTTE to force some favourable terms on the Tamil question itself or side with one of the two factions to weaken both in the long run. The worst affected will be the Tamils of Batticola- Amparai region who had been looking forward to a period of peace and tranquility!
by Dr. S. Chandrasekharan
Our fears expressed in the previous update (update 61) that Sri Lanka is heading towards a fractured future appear to be coming true.
It may take a week or more for all the results to be announced (30 seats to be declared yet), but the result declared so far gives a fair indication of what it portends in the near future.
The Freedom alliance (UPFA) led by Chandrika Kumaratungheâs party (PA) is leading with 47 percent of votes polled, with UNP trailing with 39 percent of the votes, followed by the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the newly emerging party of Buddhist Clergy (JHU) with 6 percent each.
This election was different from the previous ones in the following aspects.
* Barring Batticola where pre poll violence was due to other reasons, the current election was the least violent.
* Tamils from both North and East voted in large numbers. Though many of the voters living in LTTE controlled areas had to trek many Kilometres to vote in clustered booths set up in government controlled areas, they did it in large numbers. The reason given is that the LTTE unlike earlier elections openly encouraged voters to go out and vote for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). There were allegations that many of the votes were rigged, but even if there were some, the fact remains that compared to previous elections, the Tamil voters for the first time in last twenty years have come in droves to vote. Does that mean that the LTTE which was instrumental in letting the voters in the region under their control to vote believes in the democratic way of the people to choose their candidates? The answer is NO- as the LTTE wanted the Tamils to vote for a single political group-the TNA which besides being the handmaiden of LTTE would act as an influential bloc both inside and outside the Sri Lankan Parliament. If there was any doubt, one should watch the pre elections campaign of R. Sampanthan of TULF, a veteran politician where he repeatedly talked of two nations- the Tamil and Sinhala nation besides declaring the LTTE as the true and authentic representative of Tamils!
* Another feature in this election has been the entry of Buddhist monks, in an outfit called Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). Even before polling, they had declared that if elected they would prove to be the deciding factor in the formation of the government. They have garnered sufficient number of votes to emerge as the third largest group of the majority community after Freedom Party and UNP. While they could still not be the deciding factor, in a coalition government, their influence particularly in the ethnic issue cannot be under estimated.
* Unlike the earlier elections, there were many allegations of misuse of state media by the Presidentâs party.
In a system of proportional representation, current results would mean that the Freedom Alliance will not have an absolute majority and will have to take the help of other minor parties like the JHU.
The UNP in the run up to the elections had made out that this election could be a referendum on the cease fire agreement and the peace talks that followed. On the other hand UPFA, particularly the PA of President Chandrika, made out that Wickremasinghe had given in too much in the cease fire agreement. The JVP which is a part of the alliance of the President, has formally made its stand known that it is for only decentralisation and not even for devolution to the Tamils, leave alone the acceptance of the federalism concept. We had indicated in our update 58 (note- 211) that the agreement between SLFP and the JVP closes any hope of rapprochement between the two warring leaders President Chandrika and Prime Minister Wickremasinghe. The present election results have confirmed our fears and there is no doubt that the election results are a set back to the peace process. Now comes the leading monk of JHU who has declared that his party is not for any federalism or devolution but would work for autonomy of all the villages in Sri Lanka!
With such disparate views, it is not clear how Chandirka who is likely to form the government from her party will be able to manage and salvage the peace talks that are under suspended animation for quite some time.
A new element in the whole scenario is the situation in the east. The feud between the northern leadership and the former commander of East Karuna has reached a point of no return.
In the first stage the LTTE used its highly efficient propaganda machine to vilify Karuna as someone who had misappropriated the funds of LTTE, that he is isolated and that no force will be used to bring him to order. The leaders who were posted as replacements are still holed up in Wanni and have not returned to Batticola to take charge.
When this did not work and Karuna did not repent, the LTTE headquarters had to issue a detailed statement addressing directly the "fighters and divisional heads in Batticola and Amparai". What was startling and unacceptable was that Karuna was sentenced to death in absentia- We quote
"Making use of cadres and people who are not aware of the truth, Karuna is planning to betray the freedom struggle and our national spirit and thereby falling into the hands of traitors and enemies. The blood that was shed and the sacrifices made are being bartered by Karuna. To safeguard our nation and our people, it has been decided to get rid of Karuna from our soil."
When threats have not worked, the feud has reached the third stage when killer squads of Pottu Amman of LTTE have infiltrated into Batticola and there have been selective assassinations. Three eminent persons from Batticola of whom one was the candidate for the elections have been shot by unknown assassins, suspected to be from LTTE. The Sri Lankan media has reported on botched assassination attempt on Karuna himself. Such selective assassinations have not worked and Karunaâs outfit is still in tact. It looks that people of Batticola are still solidly behind Karuna.
The stage is therefore set for open confrontation between the northern group of LTTE and Karunaâs forces. Clashes will be inevitable. This will have serious consequences for Cease fire agreement and the peace process itself. In the absence of SLMM monitors, the Sri Lankan Army will inevitably get involved creating further complications to cease fire itself. There will be a temptation for some vested interests to use the split within LTTE to force some favourable terms on the Tamil question itself or side with one of the two factions to weaken both in the long run. The worst affected will be the Tamils of Batticola- Amparai region who had been looking forward to a period of peace and tranquility!