11-27-2006, 10:32 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Focus will be on Uttar Pradesh </b>
Pioneer.com
Arun Nehru
The Assembly elections in three States - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttaranchal - will dominate media attention. Bihar and Madhya Pradesh byelections have gone in favour of the BJP-JD(U) combine. In fact, there is a revival in the fortunes of the BJP. This trend may well continue in Punjab where the Akali Dal-BJP combination seems ahead of the Congress. Similarly, in Uttaranchal, the BJP has a distinct edge over the Congress. However, the BSP-UKD combine may get sufficient seats to ensure a coalition structure in the State. At the same time, there are indications of change in 'alliances' in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Today, every party is looking at future; these three Assembly elections will only hasten the progress of prospective changes.
<b>The situation in Uttar Pradesh is changing rather rapidly and from earlier estimates I find that the BJP and the Samajwadi Party are consolidating their positions. I think both parties should thank Union Human Resource Development Minister Arjun Singh for his policy on reservations. Clearly, "minority" appeasement is consolidating the BJP's hold on urban areas. </b>The party could well win 70-80 seats as the upper caste vote is consolidating in its favour, as a consequence of which the "minority" will consolidate in the Samajwadi Party's favour. The Samajwadi Party could thus win 140-150 seats, and the loser in all this might be the BSP as voters belonging to the Brahmin and minority communities are likely to drift to the winning combinations in different areas.
In a coalition structure, numbers - not ideology - determine political combinations. As things stand, the next Government in Uttar Pradesh could well result in unusual partnerships. Everyone, including the Independents, will have a say in the matter. Things may well change, but the Samajwadi Party, though facing anti-incumbency, seems to be slowly recovering and BJP's prospects are getting better in urban areas.
In addition to the issue of reservation, the UPA Government's soft approach to terrorism has also become an issue, especially after the July 11 Mumbai bombings. Continuing violence in Assam and the related issue of illegal migration, too, cannot be ignored.
BSP leader Mayawati expels a few MPs and MLAs and is under some pressure. Both the Samajwadi Party and the BJP step up their campaigns, while the Congress shows little inclination to move forward by way of real action and seems to be obsessed with security considerations and is content with media statements. The elections are complicated and it will be foolish to arrive at any premature conclusions. The bottom line is, a political auction is inevitable and this could start even before the votes are cast.
A few months ago, we had a great deal of political attention on the Taj Corridor case, which is in the Supreme Court, and also the disproportionate assets issue involving Ms Mayawati. Then there was controversy over the assets of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members. There is no news on these fronts, and as things stand, none of these will have any impact on the polls in the State. In fact, as things stand, both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP can form Government in Uttar Pradesh and we may well find that superior tactics in attracting allies by power-sharing arrangements will result in power formation.
The Jan Morcha headed by former Prime Minister VP Singh and a group of fringe parties cannot be written off and only the next few weeks will indicate its damage potential against the Samajwadi Party and in favour of the Congress.<b> The one common factor is that all parties, big or small, will not lack financial resources and, I think, we will see more helicopters, planes and security guards than ever before. Every leader is likely to spend millions, but will give daily sermons on their concern for the poor, the weak and the deprived!</b> <!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
We have an interesting situation developing for future and there is considerable churning within the political system. As an example, let us see the trends in the South. In Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, both the ADMK and the TDP were wiped out in the last election, but things are changing in both these States.
Tamil Nadu is no longer a two-party State with decisive swings and the ADMK could well win 20 out of the 39 seats.<b> In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP is poised for a "rousing" return and can win in excess of 20 seats. </b>The Congress was wiped out in Kerala, but this time it can win 10 out of 20 seats at the expense of the CPI(M). <b>In Karnataka, both the BJP and the JD(S) can lose ground, while the Congress's share can go up marginally.</b>
We have a mixed bag in the South, and a similar pattern is emerging in other parts of the country. We will deal with this issue in detail in the coming months, but I see the regional parties - the NCP, ADMK, DMK, RJD, JD(U), BJD, TDP, SP, BSP - and many other smaller units (the JMM, TRS, NC, PDP, RLD) maintaining or increasing their share. The BJP's tally will decline to 80-90 seats and the Left from 65 to 55 or lower. The Congress will have wins and losses and can maintain its tally or perhaps even improve on its 145 seats.
The broad picture is pointing towards greater authority and power-sharing by the regional forces - one can call it the Third Front. If its strength goes beyond the Congress's, one might well see a new Prime Minister.
Â
We often hear of regional leaders in conflict with each other, but in a coalition, numbers dictate "postures" and swings. In fact, political leaders are capable of very complex postures; rules to govern political gymnastics do not exist. The Uttar Pradesh election results will give a definite trend for the future. As far as Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav is concerned, this election will be the biggest political battle of his life.
Ms Mayawati, too, has much to fight for in the State. Besides Uttar Pradesh, she has direct stakes in Punjab and Uttaranchal. Moreover, in terms of a national constituency, the BSP leader scores over other regional leaders and no power formation at the Centre can ignore her political clout.
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Pioneer.com
Arun Nehru
The Assembly elections in three States - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttaranchal - will dominate media attention. Bihar and Madhya Pradesh byelections have gone in favour of the BJP-JD(U) combine. In fact, there is a revival in the fortunes of the BJP. This trend may well continue in Punjab where the Akali Dal-BJP combination seems ahead of the Congress. Similarly, in Uttaranchal, the BJP has a distinct edge over the Congress. However, the BSP-UKD combine may get sufficient seats to ensure a coalition structure in the State. At the same time, there are indications of change in 'alliances' in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Today, every party is looking at future; these three Assembly elections will only hasten the progress of prospective changes.
<b>The situation in Uttar Pradesh is changing rather rapidly and from earlier estimates I find that the BJP and the Samajwadi Party are consolidating their positions. I think both parties should thank Union Human Resource Development Minister Arjun Singh for his policy on reservations. Clearly, "minority" appeasement is consolidating the BJP's hold on urban areas. </b>The party could well win 70-80 seats as the upper caste vote is consolidating in its favour, as a consequence of which the "minority" will consolidate in the Samajwadi Party's favour. The Samajwadi Party could thus win 140-150 seats, and the loser in all this might be the BSP as voters belonging to the Brahmin and minority communities are likely to drift to the winning combinations in different areas.
In a coalition structure, numbers - not ideology - determine political combinations. As things stand, the next Government in Uttar Pradesh could well result in unusual partnerships. Everyone, including the Independents, will have a say in the matter. Things may well change, but the Samajwadi Party, though facing anti-incumbency, seems to be slowly recovering and BJP's prospects are getting better in urban areas.
In addition to the issue of reservation, the UPA Government's soft approach to terrorism has also become an issue, especially after the July 11 Mumbai bombings. Continuing violence in Assam and the related issue of illegal migration, too, cannot be ignored.
BSP leader Mayawati expels a few MPs and MLAs and is under some pressure. Both the Samajwadi Party and the BJP step up their campaigns, while the Congress shows little inclination to move forward by way of real action and seems to be obsessed with security considerations and is content with media statements. The elections are complicated and it will be foolish to arrive at any premature conclusions. The bottom line is, a political auction is inevitable and this could start even before the votes are cast.
A few months ago, we had a great deal of political attention on the Taj Corridor case, which is in the Supreme Court, and also the disproportionate assets issue involving Ms Mayawati. Then there was controversy over the assets of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members. There is no news on these fronts, and as things stand, none of these will have any impact on the polls in the State. In fact, as things stand, both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP can form Government in Uttar Pradesh and we may well find that superior tactics in attracting allies by power-sharing arrangements will result in power formation.
The Jan Morcha headed by former Prime Minister VP Singh and a group of fringe parties cannot be written off and only the next few weeks will indicate its damage potential against the Samajwadi Party and in favour of the Congress.<b> The one common factor is that all parties, big or small, will not lack financial resources and, I think, we will see more helicopters, planes and security guards than ever before. Every leader is likely to spend millions, but will give daily sermons on their concern for the poor, the weak and the deprived!</b> <!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> We have an interesting situation developing for future and there is considerable churning within the political system. As an example, let us see the trends in the South. In Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, both the ADMK and the TDP were wiped out in the last election, but things are changing in both these States.
Tamil Nadu is no longer a two-party State with decisive swings and the ADMK could well win 20 out of the 39 seats.<b> In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP is poised for a "rousing" return and can win in excess of 20 seats. </b>The Congress was wiped out in Kerala, but this time it can win 10 out of 20 seats at the expense of the CPI(M). <b>In Karnataka, both the BJP and the JD(S) can lose ground, while the Congress's share can go up marginally.</b>
We have a mixed bag in the South, and a similar pattern is emerging in other parts of the country. We will deal with this issue in detail in the coming months, but I see the regional parties - the NCP, ADMK, DMK, RJD, JD(U), BJD, TDP, SP, BSP - and many other smaller units (the JMM, TRS, NC, PDP, RLD) maintaining or increasing their share. The BJP's tally will decline to 80-90 seats and the Left from 65 to 55 or lower. The Congress will have wins and losses and can maintain its tally or perhaps even improve on its 145 seats.
The broad picture is pointing towards greater authority and power-sharing by the regional forces - one can call it the Third Front. If its strength goes beyond the Congress's, one might well see a new Prime Minister.
Â
We often hear of regional leaders in conflict with each other, but in a coalition, numbers dictate "postures" and swings. In fact, political leaders are capable of very complex postures; rules to govern political gymnastics do not exist. The Uttar Pradesh election results will give a definite trend for the future. As far as Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav is concerned, this election will be the biggest political battle of his life.
Ms Mayawati, too, has much to fight for in the State. Besides Uttar Pradesh, she has direct stakes in Punjab and Uttaranchal. Moreover, in terms of a national constituency, the BSP leader scores over other regional leaders and no power formation at the Centre can ignore her political clout.
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