02-15-2007, 02:14 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Did polarisation of Sikh votes spark high polling in Punjab? </b>
Satinder Bains | Chandigarh
What does the extraordinary high polling in the Punjab Assembly elections imply? Is it the strong anti-incumbency factor or polarisation of Sikh voters particularly among rural <span style='color:red'>Sikhs in favour of the Akalis due to the open support of the Congress by dera Sacha Sauda of Sirsa?</span>
The Punjab elections are expected to throw many surprises in wake of an extremely high poll percentage of 76 per cent, which is the <b>second highest in the electoral history of Punjab.</b>
In the 1969 elections, the poll percentage was 72.27 per cent. In 2007, the poll percentage is expected to touch all time high after counting of postal votes.
The heavy turnout has stunned political parties who were expecting between 50 to 60 per cent polling due to heavy rain for the last three days. During the early hours on Tuesday, polling was so slow that political observers had started calculating that not more than 50 per cent votes would be cast.
<b>Even in 1977, when the Janata Party wave had swept the elections and there was a strong anti-incumbency factor against the Congress due to the Emergency imposed in 1975, the total percentage of polling was 65.37 per cent</b>. One can understand higher polling in 1967 and 1969 immediately after the reorganisation of Punjab in 1966. The sentimental factor might have driven people to polling stations.
In the 1997 elections, when the SAD (B) had grabbed power, only 68.73 per cent voters had turned out. In 2002 when the Congress came to power, the turnout was only 66.70 per cent. The poll percentage was 67.53 per cent in 1985, 64.33 per cent in 1980, 68.63 per cent in 1972, 72.27 per cent in 1969 and 23.82 per cent in 1992 when the Akalis had boycotted the elections.
The high poll percentage has baffled political leaders and they are drawing convenient conclusions for themselves. The predictions of newspapers, TV channels and political gurus expecting a lower turnout were belied.
However it is felt that open support to Congress by organisers of dera Sucha Sauda Sirsa might have triggered a higher vote percentage for both the Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). These facts could only be realised after election results are declared on February 27.
First the supporters of dera would have turned out in strength to vote and on the other side the Sikhs who were not very happy with the decision of dera Sacha Sauda might have thronged the polling booths to retaliate the dera action. A deep study of polling pattern in the State has raised an iota of possibility that the rural <b>Sikh voters usually attached to Sikh deras in the countryside had rallied behind the SAD. The hardliner Sikhs linked to these deras are considered vote banks of radical political parties including the Shiromani Akali Dal (Mann) and other splinter Akali groups</b>.
<b>The highest polling percentage was reported from Malwa region where followers of dera Sacha Sauda and supporters of SAD are in concentration.</b> The Sikh dominated-Mansa district has recorded the highest 85 per cent polling. In a small town like Dirbha in Sangrur, a record 90 per cent polling was done against 76 per cent in 2002 elections and in Sardulgarh, another Akali bastion, the second highest in the State, 87 per cent vote was cast against 77 per cent in the previous election.
The trend of high polling was even extended to Majha region and rural areas of Doaba where there is no presence of dera Sacha Sauda followers. What does it indicate, the polarisation among rural Sikhs across the State?
Patiala town where Amarinder Singh is seeking re-election, a record 22 per cent increase in polling percentage was recorded at 69 per cent against about 48 per cent in the previous election.
Amloh and Sirhind seats in the neighbourhood recorded 12 and 6 per cent hike respectively. Rajpura seat showed an increase of 12 per cent in the polling.
Except for the four seats of Amritsar city where there was 50 to 55 per cent polling against 45 to 50 per cent in the previous election, the poll percentage in Amritsar was 57.30 per cent. <b>In Sikh-dominated Ahnala the voting percentage went up by 10 per cent.</b> Raja Sansi was the only exception where the polling come down from 72.33 to 64 per cent.
Even in Sikh-dominated Tarn Taran, the poll percentage was 68.50 per cent, the highest being 71 per cent in Patti on the Indo-Pak border. The Patti, Khadoor Sahib and Naushehra Pannuan seatas also jumped the voting figures by 10 per cent.
In largely Sikh-dominated Gurdaspur district, 72.09 per cent votes were polled against 60 to 65 percent in the previous elections. In Gurdaspur seats where the Congress held the seats the polling jumped by five to 10 per cent in certain cases except for Batal where it remained at 66 per cent. It also remained static in Dhariwal (72 per cent) where the rebel Akalis had won last time.
In Jalandhar district of Doaba, the poll percentage was 72.70 per cent. Doaba is considered a stronghold of the Congress. The percentage was higher by five to 18 per cent on all seats held by the Congress like Kartarpur (75 per cent), Jalandhar Cantt (68 per cent), Adampur (80 per cent), Jalandhar North (69 per cent), Jalandhar central and South (65 per cent), Nakodar (77 per cent) and Phillaur (75 per cent). The highest polling 78 per cent was in Noor Mehal. During the 2002 Assembly elections city seats had recorded a turnout between 50 to 60 per cent and in rural areas turnout was between 60 to 70 per cent. The high percentage here is also attributed to the anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs.
In another important region of Doaba, district Nawanshehar 75.13 per cent polling was reported, 79 per cent in Nawanshehar, 74 per cent in Banga and 72 per cent in Balachaur. In Nawanshehar 10 per cent higher polling (79.40) was recorded against 2002 statistics.
In Mukerian the traditional Congress seat won six times by Speaker Kewal Krishan, the vote percentage declined by 12 per cent to 60 per cent only. The Bhatinda seat held by <b>State Finance Minister Surinder Kumar Singla, the polling has risen from 55 to 87 per cent.</b> In Lehragaga seat held by Deputy Chief Minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal voting percentage jumped from 71.58 to 82 per cent. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think its all about, as they say in Punjabi "vota pukta di ti". Which means all proxy voters did service for "No shows" at polling booth.
Now question is which party had upper hand.
Result will tell, in rurual it was SAD.
Satinder Bains | Chandigarh
What does the extraordinary high polling in the Punjab Assembly elections imply? Is it the strong anti-incumbency factor or polarisation of Sikh voters particularly among rural <span style='color:red'>Sikhs in favour of the Akalis due to the open support of the Congress by dera Sacha Sauda of Sirsa?</span>
The Punjab elections are expected to throw many surprises in wake of an extremely high poll percentage of 76 per cent, which is the <b>second highest in the electoral history of Punjab.</b>
In the 1969 elections, the poll percentage was 72.27 per cent. In 2007, the poll percentage is expected to touch all time high after counting of postal votes.
The heavy turnout has stunned political parties who were expecting between 50 to 60 per cent polling due to heavy rain for the last three days. During the early hours on Tuesday, polling was so slow that political observers had started calculating that not more than 50 per cent votes would be cast.
<b>Even in 1977, when the Janata Party wave had swept the elections and there was a strong anti-incumbency factor against the Congress due to the Emergency imposed in 1975, the total percentage of polling was 65.37 per cent</b>. One can understand higher polling in 1967 and 1969 immediately after the reorganisation of Punjab in 1966. The sentimental factor might have driven people to polling stations.
In the 1997 elections, when the SAD (B) had grabbed power, only 68.73 per cent voters had turned out. In 2002 when the Congress came to power, the turnout was only 66.70 per cent. The poll percentage was 67.53 per cent in 1985, 64.33 per cent in 1980, 68.63 per cent in 1972, 72.27 per cent in 1969 and 23.82 per cent in 1992 when the Akalis had boycotted the elections.
The high poll percentage has baffled political leaders and they are drawing convenient conclusions for themselves. The predictions of newspapers, TV channels and political gurus expecting a lower turnout were belied.
However it is felt that open support to Congress by organisers of dera Sucha Sauda Sirsa might have triggered a higher vote percentage for both the Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). These facts could only be realised after election results are declared on February 27.
First the supporters of dera would have turned out in strength to vote and on the other side the Sikhs who were not very happy with the decision of dera Sacha Sauda might have thronged the polling booths to retaliate the dera action. A deep study of polling pattern in the State has raised an iota of possibility that the rural <b>Sikh voters usually attached to Sikh deras in the countryside had rallied behind the SAD. The hardliner Sikhs linked to these deras are considered vote banks of radical political parties including the Shiromani Akali Dal (Mann) and other splinter Akali groups</b>.
<b>The highest polling percentage was reported from Malwa region where followers of dera Sacha Sauda and supporters of SAD are in concentration.</b> The Sikh dominated-Mansa district has recorded the highest 85 per cent polling. In a small town like Dirbha in Sangrur, a record 90 per cent polling was done against 76 per cent in 2002 elections and in Sardulgarh, another Akali bastion, the second highest in the State, 87 per cent vote was cast against 77 per cent in the previous election.
The trend of high polling was even extended to Majha region and rural areas of Doaba where there is no presence of dera Sacha Sauda followers. What does it indicate, the polarisation among rural Sikhs across the State?
Patiala town where Amarinder Singh is seeking re-election, a record 22 per cent increase in polling percentage was recorded at 69 per cent against about 48 per cent in the previous election.
Amloh and Sirhind seats in the neighbourhood recorded 12 and 6 per cent hike respectively. Rajpura seat showed an increase of 12 per cent in the polling.
Except for the four seats of Amritsar city where there was 50 to 55 per cent polling against 45 to 50 per cent in the previous election, the poll percentage in Amritsar was 57.30 per cent. <b>In Sikh-dominated Ahnala the voting percentage went up by 10 per cent.</b> Raja Sansi was the only exception where the polling come down from 72.33 to 64 per cent.
Even in Sikh-dominated Tarn Taran, the poll percentage was 68.50 per cent, the highest being 71 per cent in Patti on the Indo-Pak border. The Patti, Khadoor Sahib and Naushehra Pannuan seatas also jumped the voting figures by 10 per cent.
In largely Sikh-dominated Gurdaspur district, 72.09 per cent votes were polled against 60 to 65 percent in the previous elections. In Gurdaspur seats where the Congress held the seats the polling jumped by five to 10 per cent in certain cases except for Batal where it remained at 66 per cent. It also remained static in Dhariwal (72 per cent) where the rebel Akalis had won last time.
In Jalandhar district of Doaba, the poll percentage was 72.70 per cent. Doaba is considered a stronghold of the Congress. The percentage was higher by five to 18 per cent on all seats held by the Congress like Kartarpur (75 per cent), Jalandhar Cantt (68 per cent), Adampur (80 per cent), Jalandhar North (69 per cent), Jalandhar central and South (65 per cent), Nakodar (77 per cent) and Phillaur (75 per cent). The highest polling 78 per cent was in Noor Mehal. During the 2002 Assembly elections city seats had recorded a turnout between 50 to 60 per cent and in rural areas turnout was between 60 to 70 per cent. The high percentage here is also attributed to the anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs.
In another important region of Doaba, district Nawanshehar 75.13 per cent polling was reported, 79 per cent in Nawanshehar, 74 per cent in Banga and 72 per cent in Balachaur. In Nawanshehar 10 per cent higher polling (79.40) was recorded against 2002 statistics.
In Mukerian the traditional Congress seat won six times by Speaker Kewal Krishan, the vote percentage declined by 12 per cent to 60 per cent only. The Bhatinda seat held by <b>State Finance Minister Surinder Kumar Singla, the polling has risen from 55 to 87 per cent.</b> In Lehragaga seat held by Deputy Chief Minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal voting percentage jumped from 71.58 to 82 per cent. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think its all about, as they say in Punjabi "vota pukta di ti". Which means all proxy voters did service for "No shows" at polling booth.
Now question is which party had upper hand.
Result will tell, in rurual it was SAD.