03-05-2007, 06:11 PM
ASIAN AGE 02 Mar 2007
<b>Polls and Q: Difficult days for Congress</b>
Arun Nehru
<b>A month ago we had a national survey conducted by a leading television channel and a newspaper indicating that the UPA would get 300 plus seats if Lok Sabha elections were held now.</b> All that looks like a distant dream as we see the Assembly results in Punjab and Uttarakhand, two states where the Congress suffers defeat. The municipal elections in Maharashtra were a disaster too for the Congress. We now have to look at the political repercussions of the situation on the present and the future of coalition politics. On the one side, the Congress suffers an electoral setback, and on the other, the Q issue raises further complications in terms of credibility. It will require a great deal of political skill to handle the situation.
Let us look at the situation one step at a time. The Congress loses ground to the BJP which reclaims lost ground, after defeats in Punjab and Uttarakhand. Clearly, the effects of all this will be felt in Uttar Pradesh where both the SP and BJP stand to gain in the coming elections. In both these states we have seen the vote consolidating between major contestants, with fringe parties being isolated. <b>This pattern may repeat itself in Uttar Pradesh where the electoral battle may well be between the SP and the BJP, with the BSP too in contention.</b>
The BJP's success in Mumbai followed by Punjab and Uttarakhand will consolidate the minority vote for the Samajwadi Party. I would not be surprised to see the SP cross 130-140 seats, and the BJP, as a reaction to the consolidation of the minority vote may get 70-80 seats. The BSP can get 110-120 seats. <b>It is a gloomy picture for the Congress, the Jan Morcha and the RLD in UP. Things may change, but for the moment, depending on current trends, I see the SP and BJP gaining. While this may confuse the coalition patterns in the future, the obvious loser is the Congress</b>. Also, there will be greater pressure from the NDA and the Third Front.
The election results do not pose any immediate threat to the UPA at the Centre, but the government's credibility has hit an all time low. <b>The usual reasons will be given for suppressing the Q information for 17 days, but the fact is, it was done to prevent a negative reaction on the Punjab and Uttarakhand elections which were held on February 13 and February 21</b>. But it did not have the desired effect, and by hindsight, was a poor decision. Things may settle down after a week or so, and during this time the Opposition will aim to score political points over the Congress. After that, the events in Uttar Pradesh will take over. We may well see mass "defections" towards the SP and BJP with the aim of securing tickets for the elections.
The railway budget has got lost in the political noise and the Union budget too will suffer the same fate; so will other issues, as the major contestants consolidate on the basis of caste or religion in Uttar Pradesh and fight for political control.
<b>The Mumbai result, as I have written earlier, was a warning to the Congress that minority appeasement and caste reservations were very big negatives</b>. The election results in Uttarakhand with its upper caste vote, and the debacle in the urban areas of Punjab are a grim reminder of this reality. The Congress may well find that the upper caste vote has gone to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Sandwiched between the just concluded elections and the Uttar Pradesh elections will be the municipal elections in Delhi, and here again the BJP will win by a mile.
A post-mortem of the election results will show that winning and losing are done by slender margins of one to three per cent. I think this should be a lesson both to the winner and the loser. These are not blanket verdicts given to the winning party. The Punjab verdict is much closer than it seems, and more than the Akali Dal it is the BJP that has defeated the Congress in the urban areas of Jullunder, Ludhiana, Amritsar and Pathankot. Amarinder Singh has put up a "strong" fight and will live to fight another day. The BJP has much to cheer about. BJP's Navjot Singh Sidhu wins by a massive margin in Amritsar, and may have had some effect on the urban vote.
The Congress made a "tactical" error in Uttarakhand by retaining a reluctant N.D. Tiwari as chief minister. I am very surprised that the talented and totally committed Harish Rawat, MP, was kept away from the power game. The BJP in this election had Maj. Gen. B.C. Khanduri, a former Union Cabinet minister with an impeccable record and very high integrity levels, and I do hope that he becomes the chief minister of the state.
The Congress has much to think about. I saw a television show by Karan Thapar with Arun Kumar, an MP from Andhra Pradesh. <b>I was quite shocked that the Congress high command, in this day and age, had allowed a gag order on the media. (The Andhra chief minister scrapped the order.) </b>Does it make any sense to carry out a "vendetta" against any media group?
Clearly, the Congress in Andhra Pradesh will face an electoral rout if it persists in using the official machinery to muscle out anyone with a contrary view. The Congress high command cannot take these issues lightly. It is no surprise that the TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu are gaining ground. <b>The public cannot be taken for granted and all allegations of "excessive assets" accumulated by the chief minister and his family members have to be investigated and acted upon. The Congress acted in time in Goa and scrapped the land deals (television had given the details of the real estate companies formed by Goa chief minister's family members). It would be a mistake to take things for granted in Andhra, as any "debacle" here could change the government at the Centre.</b>
<i>Arun Nehru is a former Union minister</i>
<b>Polls and Q: Difficult days for Congress</b>
Arun Nehru
<b>A month ago we had a national survey conducted by a leading television channel and a newspaper indicating that the UPA would get 300 plus seats if Lok Sabha elections were held now.</b> All that looks like a distant dream as we see the Assembly results in Punjab and Uttarakhand, two states where the Congress suffers defeat. The municipal elections in Maharashtra were a disaster too for the Congress. We now have to look at the political repercussions of the situation on the present and the future of coalition politics. On the one side, the Congress suffers an electoral setback, and on the other, the Q issue raises further complications in terms of credibility. It will require a great deal of political skill to handle the situation.
Let us look at the situation one step at a time. The Congress loses ground to the BJP which reclaims lost ground, after defeats in Punjab and Uttarakhand. Clearly, the effects of all this will be felt in Uttar Pradesh where both the SP and BJP stand to gain in the coming elections. In both these states we have seen the vote consolidating between major contestants, with fringe parties being isolated. <b>This pattern may repeat itself in Uttar Pradesh where the electoral battle may well be between the SP and the BJP, with the BSP too in contention.</b>
The BJP's success in Mumbai followed by Punjab and Uttarakhand will consolidate the minority vote for the Samajwadi Party. I would not be surprised to see the SP cross 130-140 seats, and the BJP, as a reaction to the consolidation of the minority vote may get 70-80 seats. The BSP can get 110-120 seats. <b>It is a gloomy picture for the Congress, the Jan Morcha and the RLD in UP. Things may change, but for the moment, depending on current trends, I see the SP and BJP gaining. While this may confuse the coalition patterns in the future, the obvious loser is the Congress</b>. Also, there will be greater pressure from the NDA and the Third Front.
The election results do not pose any immediate threat to the UPA at the Centre, but the government's credibility has hit an all time low. <b>The usual reasons will be given for suppressing the Q information for 17 days, but the fact is, it was done to prevent a negative reaction on the Punjab and Uttarakhand elections which were held on February 13 and February 21</b>. But it did not have the desired effect, and by hindsight, was a poor decision. Things may settle down after a week or so, and during this time the Opposition will aim to score political points over the Congress. After that, the events in Uttar Pradesh will take over. We may well see mass "defections" towards the SP and BJP with the aim of securing tickets for the elections.
The railway budget has got lost in the political noise and the Union budget too will suffer the same fate; so will other issues, as the major contestants consolidate on the basis of caste or religion in Uttar Pradesh and fight for political control.
<b>The Mumbai result, as I have written earlier, was a warning to the Congress that minority appeasement and caste reservations were very big negatives</b>. The election results in Uttarakhand with its upper caste vote, and the debacle in the urban areas of Punjab are a grim reminder of this reality. The Congress may well find that the upper caste vote has gone to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Sandwiched between the just concluded elections and the Uttar Pradesh elections will be the municipal elections in Delhi, and here again the BJP will win by a mile.
A post-mortem of the election results will show that winning and losing are done by slender margins of one to three per cent. I think this should be a lesson both to the winner and the loser. These are not blanket verdicts given to the winning party. The Punjab verdict is much closer than it seems, and more than the Akali Dal it is the BJP that has defeated the Congress in the urban areas of Jullunder, Ludhiana, Amritsar and Pathankot. Amarinder Singh has put up a "strong" fight and will live to fight another day. The BJP has much to cheer about. BJP's Navjot Singh Sidhu wins by a massive margin in Amritsar, and may have had some effect on the urban vote.
The Congress made a "tactical" error in Uttarakhand by retaining a reluctant N.D. Tiwari as chief minister. I am very surprised that the talented and totally committed Harish Rawat, MP, was kept away from the power game. The BJP in this election had Maj. Gen. B.C. Khanduri, a former Union Cabinet minister with an impeccable record and very high integrity levels, and I do hope that he becomes the chief minister of the state.
The Congress has much to think about. I saw a television show by Karan Thapar with Arun Kumar, an MP from Andhra Pradesh. <b>I was quite shocked that the Congress high command, in this day and age, had allowed a gag order on the media. (The Andhra chief minister scrapped the order.) </b>Does it make any sense to carry out a "vendetta" against any media group?
Clearly, the Congress in Andhra Pradesh will face an electoral rout if it persists in using the official machinery to muscle out anyone with a contrary view. The Congress high command cannot take these issues lightly. It is no surprise that the TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu are gaining ground. <b>The public cannot be taken for granted and all allegations of "excessive assets" accumulated by the chief minister and his family members have to be investigated and acted upon. The Congress acted in time in Goa and scrapped the land deals (television had given the details of the real estate companies formed by Goa chief minister's family members). It would be a mistake to take things for granted in Andhra, as any "debacle" here could change the government at the Centre.</b>
<i>Arun Nehru is a former Union minister</i>