03-18-2007, 05:22 AM
Acid test for SP in its pocket borough
Subodh Ghildiyal
[ 18 Mar, 2007 0030hrs ISTTIMES NEWS NETWORK ]
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NEW DELHI: Chambal and Bundelkhand, dacoit-infested terrains, have been a happy hunting ground for Mulayam Singh Yadav.
The 62 seats in the volatile region, which go to polls on April 7 in the first phase of the battle for UP crown, will again decide to a large extent if Samajwadi Party's guns will boom in the state.
If Samajwadi Party can retain its lead of 2002 assembly polls or even marginally match the sterling show of 2004 Lok Sabha, it would be well placed to negate, to some extent, the losses it might suffer later. But a fumble here may hit it hard.
What Mulayam managed on his home turf is interesting. In 2002, Samajwadi Party won 23 of the 62 seats, ahead of BJP's 16 and BSP's 15.
Congress managed only four. SP's 62 were part of its tally of 143 seats. What it did two years later in the historic 'India Shining' LS polls was phenomenal. The party just swept the elections here, with BSP and BJP falling by the wayside.
Samajwadi Party won 44 of the 62 assembly segments with its challenger BSP managing only six seats. Riding on its
performance here, Samajwadi Party nearly doubled its LS tally.
But voting in these pockets, with Mulayam as chief minister, came under a cloud much before the results were out as there was violence, and the police was accused of partisanship.
Samajwadi Party swept the show. It won all the five assembly constituencies of Mainpuri LS seat from where Mulayam contested.
It was five-nil in its favour in Jalesar, Etah, Agra and Kannauj. The party conceded the lead in one assembly segment in Etawah, Ghatampur and Hamirpur.
The massive swing from 2002 assembly polls, when Samajwadi Party went to the polls under the most favourable circumstances and could manage only 143 seats, to 2004 LS, when it had the obvious advantage of incumbency, was surprising and was, no wonder, questioned.
While matching the 2004 results seems a tall order, retaining the 2002 tally would be a huge boost to its prospects.
But, it's a tough ask. While it would be a closely-monitored election, with central paramilitary forces manning polling booths, Samajwadi Party is also facing a challenge on the electoral front.
Considered its pocket borough, the party's minority votebase is under attack from splinter Muslim groups even as it faces a negative campaign from Jan Morcha which, while not being a force on its own, could add to the anti-Samajwadi Party sentiment.
Congress is not helping its cause either, deciding to unleash its best face, Rahul Gandhi, in the region. His roadshows and campaign are likely to appeal to Muslims and a fragmentation could help BSP or BJP.
The latter would be aided by the return of Kalyan Singh who could use his appeal with OBCs, especially Lodhs, to good effect. BSP's Brahmin card would also be on test. For, the upper castes seem amenable to BJP and their original party, Congress.
Subodh Ghildiyal
[ 18 Mar, 2007 0030hrs ISTTIMES NEWS NETWORK ]
RSS Feeds| SMS NEWS to 8888 for latest updates
NEW DELHI: Chambal and Bundelkhand, dacoit-infested terrains, have been a happy hunting ground for Mulayam Singh Yadav.
The 62 seats in the volatile region, which go to polls on April 7 in the first phase of the battle for UP crown, will again decide to a large extent if Samajwadi Party's guns will boom in the state.
If Samajwadi Party can retain its lead of 2002 assembly polls or even marginally match the sterling show of 2004 Lok Sabha, it would be well placed to negate, to some extent, the losses it might suffer later. But a fumble here may hit it hard.
What Mulayam managed on his home turf is interesting. In 2002, Samajwadi Party won 23 of the 62 seats, ahead of BJP's 16 and BSP's 15.
Congress managed only four. SP's 62 were part of its tally of 143 seats. What it did two years later in the historic 'India Shining' LS polls was phenomenal. The party just swept the elections here, with BSP and BJP falling by the wayside.
Samajwadi Party won 44 of the 62 assembly segments with its challenger BSP managing only six seats. Riding on its
performance here, Samajwadi Party nearly doubled its LS tally.
But voting in these pockets, with Mulayam as chief minister, came under a cloud much before the results were out as there was violence, and the police was accused of partisanship.
Samajwadi Party swept the show. It won all the five assembly constituencies of Mainpuri LS seat from where Mulayam contested.
It was five-nil in its favour in Jalesar, Etah, Agra and Kannauj. The party conceded the lead in one assembly segment in Etawah, Ghatampur and Hamirpur.
The massive swing from 2002 assembly polls, when Samajwadi Party went to the polls under the most favourable circumstances and could manage only 143 seats, to 2004 LS, when it had the obvious advantage of incumbency, was surprising and was, no wonder, questioned.
While matching the 2004 results seems a tall order, retaining the 2002 tally would be a huge boost to its prospects.
But, it's a tough ask. While it would be a closely-monitored election, with central paramilitary forces manning polling booths, Samajwadi Party is also facing a challenge on the electoral front.
Considered its pocket borough, the party's minority votebase is under attack from splinter Muslim groups even as it faces a negative campaign from Jan Morcha which, while not being a force on its own, could add to the anti-Samajwadi Party sentiment.
Congress is not helping its cause either, deciding to unleash its best face, Rahul Gandhi, in the region. His roadshows and campaign are likely to appeal to Muslims and a fragmentation could help BSP or BJP.
The latter would be aided by the return of Kalyan Singh who could use his appeal with OBCs, especially Lodhs, to good effect. BSP's Brahmin card would also be on test. For, the upper castes seem amenable to BJP and their original party, Congress.