UP, Gujarat, UT, Punjab- Election 2007

[ramana]

Deccan Chronicle, 28 March 2007

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Bookies see hung UP House
 

Mumbai, March 27: The bookies are betting on a hung Assembly in Uttar Pradesh. The betting rates were opened at noon on Tuesday in Jaipur and, according to the bookies, <b>no single party will get or cross 125 seats</b>. At the rates at which bets have been taken, the expectation appears to be that the ruling Samajwadi Party will lose between 20-25 seats, the Congress 10-12 seats and the Lok Dal of Ajit Singh 5-6 seats.

The total betting is expected to be around Rs 1,000 crores to Rs 1,500 crores.
In the last Assembly, the Samajwadi Party (SP) got 143 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 98 seats, the BJP 88 seats, the Congress 26, the Lok Dal 15 and the rest were won by Independents. <b>This time the bookies expect the SP to get between 110-115 seats; the BSP also between 110-115 seats; the BJP 105-110 seats and the Congress 16-20 seats.</b>

<b>Among the smaller parties, they expect that Raj Babbar’s party will get 4-7 seats, Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal between 8-10 seats and V.P. Singh’s Jan Morcha 5-8 seats. </b>The bookies feel that the BSP’s chances have brightened because Ms Mayawati has given 135 seats to brahmin candidates. The bookies do not appear to feel that the Rahul Gandhi factor will work wonders for the Congress. On the contrary, they say that his recent statement on the Babri Masjid — that the demolition would not have happened had a member of the Gandhi family been “in charge” and in politics at that time — will cost the Congress at least 10 votes. The Hindus feel that this statement was made to woo Muslim votes.

<b>The Sonia Gandhi factor is also not likely to have an impact. The bookies feel that her campaigning in Punjab and Jharkhand had not had any impact, and it would be the same in UP.</b> The SP, they feel, stand to lose some seats because of the poor law and order situation and incidents like the Nithari child murders. The bookies are expected to update their betting rates after the first round of voting in Uttar Pradesh on April 7, when 62 constituencies will go to the polls.

The betting rates

Samajwadi

<b>110 seats: 35 paise</b>
115 seats: 85 paise
120 seats: Re 1.40
125 seats: Rs 2.80
130 seats: Rs 4.50

BJP

<b>95 seats: 30 paise</b>
100 seats: 80 paise
105 seats: Re 1.60
110 seats: Rs 2.40
115 seats: Rs 3.50

BSP

<b>105 seats: 30 paise</b>
110 seats: 92 paise
115 seats: Re 1.60
120 seats: Rs 3
125 seats: Rs 5

CONGRESS

<b>10 seats: 20 paise</b>
15 seats: 90 paise
20 seats: Rs 2
25 seats: Rs 3.50
30 seats: Rs 6

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Watch out for the IB report. Usually leaked to Outlook and or Pioneer's Arun Nehru or other columnists.

And compare to the various polls by pundits commissioned by the various media outlets- India Today, CNN-IBN, etc.