UP, Gujarat, UT, Punjab- Election 2007

[Guest]

Here is from "always go wrong gang" of HT, CNN-IBN paid by Sonia led Congress.
Enjoy full of contradictions. <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->In other words, you need to wait for the extensive exit-cum-post poll survey that the Indian Express – CNN-IBN – CSDS team plans to carry out. Or, perhaps, for May 11 if you wish to get your arithmetic right.
Link
(Conducted by Sanjay Kumar, Rajeeva Karandikar and Yogendra Yadav)
Seats projection
Projection 2007  Actual 2002
SP 150 - 160  145
BSP  140 - 150  98
BJP+  50 - 60  106
Congress  20 -30  25
Others  25 - 35 29

BJP+ includes Apna Dal for projections for 2007 and its partners JD(U), Samata, Loktantrik Congress and RLD in 2002. Others include RLD in projections for 2007.

Estimated vote share (%)
SP  29
BSP 28
BJP+ 19
Congress 9
Others 15

Who would you vote for if assembly elections are held tomorrow?
Vote change from 2002 (% points)
SP + 3
BSP + 5
BJP+ -- 5
Congress 0
Others -- 3

The votes of SP and BJP in 2002 include the votes of their allies in that election.
The race got closer in the last one year

Aug’06 Jan ‘07 March 07

SP 25 25  29
BSP 29 25 28
BJP+ 16 18 19
Congress 10 12 9

Who is best in terms of …
Mulayam  Mayawati Kalyan

Development
35 28 20
Administration
22 39 18
Trustworthiness
27 29 21
Honesty
20 24 20

<b>Rise in Rahul’s popularity </b>  <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Jan 2006 1.9
Aug 2006 2.6
Jan 2007 4.2
March 2007 5.5

Per cent who named <b>Rahul Gandhi as their preferred Chief Minister for UP </b>in CNN-IBN/CSDS State of the Nation Surveys.  <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tongue.gif' /><!--endemo-->

Frozen vote banks?
Vote 2007 Change from 2002

Yadavs for SP  77 + 5
Muslims for SP 54 0
Dalits for BSP 73 + 4
Upper caste for BJP 48 0
Caste vote arithmetic
SP BSP BJP+ Congress

BJP’s hold over the upper caste is weakening
Brahmin 9 10 57 13
Rajput 19 10 46 14
Vaishya 19 13 47 6

SP continues to hold the Yadav and much of the Muslim vote
Yadav 77 5 3 5
Muslim 54 12 2 14

BSP’s dominance among the dalit voters still unchallenged
Jatav 5 78 4 2
Other SC 14 60 4 7

It’s an open game for the remaining OBC communities

Lower OBC 26 29 18 12
Jats 13 6 17 1
Kurmi 40 13 28 8
Lodh 20 18 32 8

Note: among Jats 48 % intend to vote for RLD.
Unhappiness with SP government
Better Worse
Corruption  19 32
Crime  18 44
Electricity  25 29
Irrigation  18 28

The rest either said there was no difference or did not give any response.
Positive points of SP government
Better Worse

Overall development  38 19
Education  33 19
Health care  29 21
Roads 40 20

The rest either said there was no difference or did not give any response.

Another chance for SP government?
Yes 35
No 48
Cant say  17

Another chance to your MLA?
Yes 32
No 45
Can't say  22
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->