04-20-2007, 02:55 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Vote banks fracturing </b>
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
<i><b>BJP set to gain from division of Muslim votes, fair polling</b></i>
An Analysis:
Six months ago, even the most optimistic BJP supporters were not willing to place a bet on the possibility of the party staging a recovery in Uttar Pradesh from where it launched the Ram temple movement to capture power at the Centre. But the return of the core vote bank and division of the ruling Samajwadi Party's support base seem to be propelling the BJP to a situation where its leaders are now claiming to even pip the frontrunner BSP at the post.
In a vast State like UP, where every region has its own complex caste arithmetic, such early claims and counter-claims could only be taken with a pinch of salt, but there are indications that a social churning is taking place in the caste and communal cauldron of UP with the gains going to the BSP and the BJP. Â
One of the significant aspects of the <b>first three phases of the UP poll has been the breaking of the myth of strategic voting by the Muslims to defeat the BJP. </b>
<b>Exit polls and ground reports indicate a four-way division of the Muslim vote among the SP, the BSP, Congress and the smaller outfits-funded and driven by individual Muslim chieftains. Undoubtedly, the SP has been able to secure majority of the Muslim vote, but its failure to polarise Muslims may turn out to be Mulayam Singh Yadav's nemesis</b>.The exit polls' prediction about a poor show by the SP in the third phase is based on assessments that <b>at least 35-40 per cent Muslims have voted against Yadav.</b>
<b>The trend so far has also indicated that the upper castes are now returning aggressively to the BJP fold. </b>In fact, in the first three phases, where the BSP fielded relatively fewer upper caste candidates and the <b>Congress hardly a serious challenger, the BJP expects to gain a large chunk of its traditional votes.</b>
The social churning that saw non-Yadav OBCs rejecting the leadership of Lalu Prasad in Bihar seems to be repeating itself in UP also. Over the years, the dominating character of Yadav leadership has alienated the non-Yadav OBCs and Mulayam is finding it difficult to rally them around under the slogan of social justice. The emergence of smaller outfits like Apna Dal, Beni Prasad Verma's Samajwadi Kranti Dal, Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Bhartiya Samaj Party are indications of this shifting socio-political reality of Hindi heartland. These parties may not be more than small blip on the vast canvass of State with a population of over 10 crore, but collectively they espouse the growing aspirations of the non-Yadav OBCs for their share of power in post-Mandal politics.
The BJP is best suited to encash this disenchantment of the non-Yadav OBCs to the hilt. The projection of Kalyan Singh as BJP's chief ministerial candidate has led to the return of Lodh votes to the BJP. Similarly, the party's alliance with Apna Dal could help it make serious inroads into Kurmi vote bank. With an eye on these votes, the BJP has roped in Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
The non-Yadav OBC votes are clearly up for grab in UP, and both the BJP and the BSP have made deep inroads into the SP's terrain here.
Political observers feel that the B<b>JP has successfully implemented the Madhya Pradesh experiment UP. In MP, the BJP's success to bring OBCs and upper castes on one platform saw them sweep the Assembly poll. Now the party is hoping a repeat of the same in UP</b>
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Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
<i><b>BJP set to gain from division of Muslim votes, fair polling</b></i>
An Analysis:
Six months ago, even the most optimistic BJP supporters were not willing to place a bet on the possibility of the party staging a recovery in Uttar Pradesh from where it launched the Ram temple movement to capture power at the Centre. But the return of the core vote bank and division of the ruling Samajwadi Party's support base seem to be propelling the BJP to a situation where its leaders are now claiming to even pip the frontrunner BSP at the post.
In a vast State like UP, where every region has its own complex caste arithmetic, such early claims and counter-claims could only be taken with a pinch of salt, but there are indications that a social churning is taking place in the caste and communal cauldron of UP with the gains going to the BSP and the BJP. Â
One of the significant aspects of the <b>first three phases of the UP poll has been the breaking of the myth of strategic voting by the Muslims to defeat the BJP. </b>
<b>Exit polls and ground reports indicate a four-way division of the Muslim vote among the SP, the BSP, Congress and the smaller outfits-funded and driven by individual Muslim chieftains. Undoubtedly, the SP has been able to secure majority of the Muslim vote, but its failure to polarise Muslims may turn out to be Mulayam Singh Yadav's nemesis</b>.The exit polls' prediction about a poor show by the SP in the third phase is based on assessments that <b>at least 35-40 per cent Muslims have voted against Yadav.</b>
<b>The trend so far has also indicated that the upper castes are now returning aggressively to the BJP fold. </b>In fact, in the first three phases, where the BSP fielded relatively fewer upper caste candidates and the <b>Congress hardly a serious challenger, the BJP expects to gain a large chunk of its traditional votes.</b>
The social churning that saw non-Yadav OBCs rejecting the leadership of Lalu Prasad in Bihar seems to be repeating itself in UP also. Over the years, the dominating character of Yadav leadership has alienated the non-Yadav OBCs and Mulayam is finding it difficult to rally them around under the slogan of social justice. The emergence of smaller outfits like Apna Dal, Beni Prasad Verma's Samajwadi Kranti Dal, Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Bhartiya Samaj Party are indications of this shifting socio-political reality of Hindi heartland. These parties may not be more than small blip on the vast canvass of State with a population of over 10 crore, but collectively they espouse the growing aspirations of the non-Yadav OBCs for their share of power in post-Mandal politics.
The BJP is best suited to encash this disenchantment of the non-Yadav OBCs to the hilt. The projection of Kalyan Singh as BJP's chief ministerial candidate has led to the return of Lodh votes to the BJP. Similarly, the party's alliance with Apna Dal could help it make serious inroads into Kurmi vote bank. With an eye on these votes, the BJP has roped in Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
The non-Yadav OBC votes are clearly up for grab in UP, and both the BJP and the BSP have made deep inroads into the SP's terrain here.
Political observers feel that the B<b>JP has successfully implemented the Madhya Pradesh experiment UP. In MP, the BJP's success to bring OBCs and upper castes on one platform saw them sweep the Assembly poll. Now the party is hoping a repeat of the same in UP</b>
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