04-25-2007, 08:27 AM
<!--emo&:blow--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blow.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='blow.gif' /><!--endemo--> BJP playing cards well to reap good harvest in UP
GIRISH KUBER
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ WEDNESDAY, APRIL 25, 2007 04:23:44 AM]
LUCKNOW: Change is in the air in the countryâs most populous state. Just as Bihar had dethroned the seemingly invincible Lalu Prasad Yadav, chances are that the ongoing polls would upset electoral equations in UP. And a major gainer could be the BJP.
There are many reasons to believe so. The Sangh Parivar is working overtime to ensure the success of its political arm, the BJP, which has been working out the caste arithmetic rather well.
Riding on the recent successes in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Delhi and several local elections in Maharashtra, the BJP seems to have regained its lost composure and rhythm. Take the caste combinations. The BJP has not one but two aces up its sleeve this time.
First and foremost, Kalyan Singh is back in the saffron camp. Kalyan, the original face of the Ram Mandir agitation, belongs to the Lodh community which, along with the Kurmis, accounts for 18% of the voting population.
His absence had played a crucial role in swinging backward votes away from the BJP in 2002, when he allied with the BSP. If he had been there, the BJP wouldnât have lost about 66 seats. This time, the BJP is projecting Kalyan as the chief ministerial candidate. This is likely to have a big impact.
Second, the BJP has Sonelal Patel and his party Apna Dal in its fold. Mr Patel is the undisputed leader of the Kurmi community, the backward caste that accounts for 10% of the stateâs population. Mr Patel was being wooed by every big political party, but the BJP outwitted the others. Though the BJP had Vinay Katiyar, who belongs to the Kurmi community, his ultra Hindutva image had been a deterrent.
Mr Patel had come close to becoming UP chief minister when Kanshi Ram was heading the BSP in the late 1980s. But Mayawati took the centre stage, and Mr Patel was expelled in 1994. A year later he formed Apna Dal, and one four seats in the subsequent elections. Winning him over is a master stroke by the BJP, many believe.
Mr Patelâs joining the BJP coincides with Beni Prasad Verma, another important Kurmi leader, walking out on Mulayam Singh Yadav. He is expected damage the SPâs chances. He has a strong presence in Tarai region, that went to polls on Monday. The BJP has also roped in another strong Kurmi leader, Nitish Kumar. The Bihar chief minister has been touring the Allahabad region.
In the last elections the BJP had pocketed 20.12% votes, whereas the SP had a 24% share. To SPâs share, the Apna Dal contributed 2.98%, while Kalyan Singh had a 2.84% share. This time both these leaders are firmly behind the BJP.
Besides, the BJP can bank on the upper castes, who account for about 29% of voters. The party has some strong leaders in Kalraj Mishra and Lalaji Tondon who represent the Brahminical face of the BJP. In the last leg of electioneering it plans to parade Atal Bihari Vajpayee as well.
While the BJP has succeeded in roping in more allies, the SP seems to be losing its Muslim base. Muslim votes, constituting nearly 18% of the total, are likely to be divided among the SP, the Congress and, to a lesser extent, the BSP.
And, above all, the RSS is firmly behind the BJP. The reunification of the Parivar has already yielded some results for the BJP, in a dozen of municipal bodies.
girish.kuber@timesgroup.com
GIRISH KUBER
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ WEDNESDAY, APRIL 25, 2007 04:23:44 AM]
LUCKNOW: Change is in the air in the countryâs most populous state. Just as Bihar had dethroned the seemingly invincible Lalu Prasad Yadav, chances are that the ongoing polls would upset electoral equations in UP. And a major gainer could be the BJP.
There are many reasons to believe so. The Sangh Parivar is working overtime to ensure the success of its political arm, the BJP, which has been working out the caste arithmetic rather well.
Riding on the recent successes in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Delhi and several local elections in Maharashtra, the BJP seems to have regained its lost composure and rhythm. Take the caste combinations. The BJP has not one but two aces up its sleeve this time.
First and foremost, Kalyan Singh is back in the saffron camp. Kalyan, the original face of the Ram Mandir agitation, belongs to the Lodh community which, along with the Kurmis, accounts for 18% of the voting population.
His absence had played a crucial role in swinging backward votes away from the BJP in 2002, when he allied with the BSP. If he had been there, the BJP wouldnât have lost about 66 seats. This time, the BJP is projecting Kalyan as the chief ministerial candidate. This is likely to have a big impact.
Second, the BJP has Sonelal Patel and his party Apna Dal in its fold. Mr Patel is the undisputed leader of the Kurmi community, the backward caste that accounts for 10% of the stateâs population. Mr Patel was being wooed by every big political party, but the BJP outwitted the others. Though the BJP had Vinay Katiyar, who belongs to the Kurmi community, his ultra Hindutva image had been a deterrent.
Mr Patel had come close to becoming UP chief minister when Kanshi Ram was heading the BSP in the late 1980s. But Mayawati took the centre stage, and Mr Patel was expelled in 1994. A year later he formed Apna Dal, and one four seats in the subsequent elections. Winning him over is a master stroke by the BJP, many believe.
Mr Patelâs joining the BJP coincides with Beni Prasad Verma, another important Kurmi leader, walking out on Mulayam Singh Yadav. He is expected damage the SPâs chances. He has a strong presence in Tarai region, that went to polls on Monday. The BJP has also roped in another strong Kurmi leader, Nitish Kumar. The Bihar chief minister has been touring the Allahabad region.
In the last elections the BJP had pocketed 20.12% votes, whereas the SP had a 24% share. To SPâs share, the Apna Dal contributed 2.98%, while Kalyan Singh had a 2.84% share. This time both these leaders are firmly behind the BJP.
Besides, the BJP can bank on the upper castes, who account for about 29% of voters. The party has some strong leaders in Kalraj Mishra and Lalaji Tondon who represent the Brahminical face of the BJP. In the last leg of electioneering it plans to parade Atal Bihari Vajpayee as well.
While the BJP has succeeded in roping in more allies, the SP seems to be losing its Muslim base. Muslim votes, constituting nearly 18% of the total, are likely to be divided among the SP, the Congress and, to a lesser extent, the BSP.
And, above all, the RSS is firmly behind the BJP. The reunification of the Parivar has already yielded some results for the BJP, in a dozen of municipal bodies.
girish.kuber@timesgroup.com