12-05-2007, 10:06 PM
Syed Amin Jafri is putting a lot of spin here. We need to watch his pattern of writing in future. It is snowing in DC here and I have some time today and I will write what I understand from my reading. <!--emo&
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First about Caste configuration:
In AP Reddys form almost 25% of population and they never vote enblock. If they do, there will be no opposition. Velamas and Kammas are 6% each and are influential. Rajus (Khstriyas) are also about 4% but influential in couple of districts. Brahmins and Vyshyas are about 8% together and are mosltly irrelevant except in few constituencies. That's about 45% of forward castes( with some margin of error). About 1 percent of Reddys, Kammas got converted to Catholic christians during 60s. YSR belongs to this category.
Muslims are about 8% and their influence is only in Hyderabad and some constituencies of Telangana districts. Other religions(<0.5%) that Jafri is spinning about is negligible and moslty migrant population and are not politically interested in the state.
20% is backward classes that includes Kapus (balija, telaga and ontari), yadavs, padmasalis, gowda/setti balija etc. Mostly artisan caste. Politcally savvy but no real power yet. Too many castes are there in this section. Some of these variants are same but different names due to different regoins. Telangana Goud is same as East Godavari Dt. setti balija. Another factor is some of these variants are BC in one region where as they are forward caste in other regions. Classic example is Kapus. They are forward caste in coastal region excluding Guntur and prakasam districts. In north Andhra(Vishakapatnam and Orissa border) they are BC and in Guntur, prakasam and south Andhra they are with different names(balija, telaga etc) altogether and are BC. A very negligible number (people say these days there are more numbers) converted to christians from 10000 variants of BC castes.
Then comes SCs and they are about 15% and STs about 5% of population. 90% of SCs are converted to Christians and maintain their official record as not christians. This is a fact. A small section of STs also converted but there is a lot resistence these days in tribal regions. Lambdas and gonds are very proud and strong tribes and they can kill the evengelists.
Caste configurations in politics:
Before 1983, congress formula is very simple. Reddys(large portion)+Muslims(except HYD due to MIM)+ SC+ ST. Other Forward castes are divided due to socialists, Janata, communists etc. BCs of those days are not politically savvy and used to vote based on themes like Indira Gandhi and Nehru etc.They vote based on the voting pattern of principle opposing caste in the village. For example in Amalapuram Kapus and Setti balijas are competing castes. If Kapus vote to congress then setti balijas have to vote to different party. There is no permanent sticking factors. This pattern is followed in cinema fans associations as well. Kapus here are Chiranjeevi fans by caste and setti balijas are Nagarjuna fans as they have to be opposite. <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> The opposition space is all to the communists. They were the principle opposition with about 15 to 20% vote. Most of the communists are some of the wealthy kammas, Reddys and velamas. They are in communists for a reason. The links between Naxals and communists are very open and they used to save the wealth from Naxal wrath by patronizing them by means of political support.
In the above scenario, voting is not essentially caste, it was more idealogical. From the bottom of the heart people believed that congress brought independence and we should support Gandhi, Nehru and Indira. Current writers(like Jafri here) totally forget this fact and write everything as caste.
Post 1983 with the entrance of NTR caste has really become a factor. The society has become more caste centric( means caste assertive). NTR not using caste is totally wrong. Only in the first term he came on a charismatic wave. Caste in politics is very real now in AP. But the caste factors are not as solidified as we see in UP or Bihar. Anti incumbancy also becomes a factor in this state but works on caste lines.
First term of NTR is a cinema star wave. People were just blind and they forgot that Indira is Nehru's daughter.
After that TDP solidified Kammas, Velamas, Rajus and BCs into one block. BCs were enblock to TDP. A large section of Vyshyas also vote for TDP. If we put in non-caste terms, TDP combined the rich farmers(not pure landlords), middle and small farmers, artisans, traders and private sector dependent population into one block.This is about 45 to 48% of population. Communist support dwindled to about 5% and is concentrated more in Telangana and in some shades of Coastal AP.
At this time congress is left with Landlords(a large section of Reddys), Muslims, Brahmins(most of them are Government employees and cannot fit into TDP scheme), SC and ST.
The reason for SCs to be in congress fold is because at village level land was freely distributed to SCs where as a large number of BCs are landless poor. TDP did a volte face here by means of strong arm tactics. They allowed the land grab from SCs.
If it is solidified why then TDP and Congress win and lose?
There are competing castes in the list of forward castes, factions of Reddys and the 10,000 BC castes. Obviously not all of them can be accomadated. The competitions vary differently in different regions. Each district has its own competing caste fissures.Some groups of castes move between TDP and Congress and that makes up the 6 to 7 % swing in the polls.
25 years passed and it is too much wait for these competing castes and vaccum needs to be filled and here comes the Chiranjeevi factor and TRS factor. This is exactly like Nitish Kumar factor of Bihar. Velamas are sidelined inside congress due to Reddys and inside TDP due to kammas. They need their space and they mostly belong to Telangana and hence the formation of TRS and the cries for separate Telangana.
Similarly Chiranjeeevi wanted to create an alliance of Brahmins, Vysyas and Kshatriyas from forward castes and neglected powerful BCs like Kapus and any other 3000 castes from 10,000 castes of BCs. This third formation talk is there since several years but no one has the clout or charisma like NTR or TDP.
On top of this there is a 8 to 10% idealogical BJP vote forming across the state. If Chiranjeevi succeeds, then there will be a coalition of third front+TDP or third front+Congress. These politically neglected castes will be in a negotiating situation. If BJP is smart and invest some money here this third front here is strongly religious hindu vote and they shoud occupy this rather than some one like Chiranjeevi or TRS etc. This is where BJP is doing blunder.
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->First about Caste configuration:
In AP Reddys form almost 25% of population and they never vote enblock. If they do, there will be no opposition. Velamas and Kammas are 6% each and are influential. Rajus (Khstriyas) are also about 4% but influential in couple of districts. Brahmins and Vyshyas are about 8% together and are mosltly irrelevant except in few constituencies. That's about 45% of forward castes( with some margin of error). About 1 percent of Reddys, Kammas got converted to Catholic christians during 60s. YSR belongs to this category.
Muslims are about 8% and their influence is only in Hyderabad and some constituencies of Telangana districts. Other religions(<0.5%) that Jafri is spinning about is negligible and moslty migrant population and are not politically interested in the state.
20% is backward classes that includes Kapus (balija, telaga and ontari), yadavs, padmasalis, gowda/setti balija etc. Mostly artisan caste. Politcally savvy but no real power yet. Too many castes are there in this section. Some of these variants are same but different names due to different regoins. Telangana Goud is same as East Godavari Dt. setti balija. Another factor is some of these variants are BC in one region where as they are forward caste in other regions. Classic example is Kapus. They are forward caste in coastal region excluding Guntur and prakasam districts. In north Andhra(Vishakapatnam and Orissa border) they are BC and in Guntur, prakasam and south Andhra they are with different names(balija, telaga etc) altogether and are BC. A very negligible number (people say these days there are more numbers) converted to christians from 10000 variants of BC castes.
Then comes SCs and they are about 15% and STs about 5% of population. 90% of SCs are converted to Christians and maintain their official record as not christians. This is a fact. A small section of STs also converted but there is a lot resistence these days in tribal regions. Lambdas and gonds are very proud and strong tribes and they can kill the evengelists.
Caste configurations in politics:
Before 1983, congress formula is very simple. Reddys(large portion)+Muslims(except HYD due to MIM)+ SC+ ST. Other Forward castes are divided due to socialists, Janata, communists etc. BCs of those days are not politically savvy and used to vote based on themes like Indira Gandhi and Nehru etc.They vote based on the voting pattern of principle opposing caste in the village. For example in Amalapuram Kapus and Setti balijas are competing castes. If Kapus vote to congress then setti balijas have to vote to different party. There is no permanent sticking factors. This pattern is followed in cinema fans associations as well. Kapus here are Chiranjeevi fans by caste and setti balijas are Nagarjuna fans as they have to be opposite. <!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> The opposition space is all to the communists. They were the principle opposition with about 15 to 20% vote. Most of the communists are some of the wealthy kammas, Reddys and velamas. They are in communists for a reason. The links between Naxals and communists are very open and they used to save the wealth from Naxal wrath by patronizing them by means of political support.In the above scenario, voting is not essentially caste, it was more idealogical. From the bottom of the heart people believed that congress brought independence and we should support Gandhi, Nehru and Indira. Current writers(like Jafri here) totally forget this fact and write everything as caste.
Post 1983 with the entrance of NTR caste has really become a factor. The society has become more caste centric( means caste assertive). NTR not using caste is totally wrong. Only in the first term he came on a charismatic wave. Caste in politics is very real now in AP. But the caste factors are not as solidified as we see in UP or Bihar. Anti incumbancy also becomes a factor in this state but works on caste lines.
First term of NTR is a cinema star wave. People were just blind and they forgot that Indira is Nehru's daughter.
After that TDP solidified Kammas, Velamas, Rajus and BCs into one block. BCs were enblock to TDP. A large section of Vyshyas also vote for TDP. If we put in non-caste terms, TDP combined the rich farmers(not pure landlords), middle and small farmers, artisans, traders and private sector dependent population into one block.This is about 45 to 48% of population. Communist support dwindled to about 5% and is concentrated more in Telangana and in some shades of Coastal AP.
At this time congress is left with Landlords(a large section of Reddys), Muslims, Brahmins(most of them are Government employees and cannot fit into TDP scheme), SC and ST.
The reason for SCs to be in congress fold is because at village level land was freely distributed to SCs where as a large number of BCs are landless poor. TDP did a volte face here by means of strong arm tactics. They allowed the land grab from SCs.
If it is solidified why then TDP and Congress win and lose?
There are competing castes in the list of forward castes, factions of Reddys and the 10,000 BC castes. Obviously not all of them can be accomadated. The competitions vary differently in different regions. Each district has its own competing caste fissures.Some groups of castes move between TDP and Congress and that makes up the 6 to 7 % swing in the polls.
25 years passed and it is too much wait for these competing castes and vaccum needs to be filled and here comes the Chiranjeevi factor and TRS factor. This is exactly like Nitish Kumar factor of Bihar. Velamas are sidelined inside congress due to Reddys and inside TDP due to kammas. They need their space and they mostly belong to Telangana and hence the formation of TRS and the cries for separate Telangana.
Similarly Chiranjeeevi wanted to create an alliance of Brahmins, Vysyas and Kshatriyas from forward castes and neglected powerful BCs like Kapus and any other 3000 castes from 10,000 castes of BCs. This third formation talk is there since several years but no one has the clout or charisma like NTR or TDP.
On top of this there is a 8 to 10% idealogical BJP vote forming across the state. If Chiranjeevi succeeds, then there will be a coalition of third front+TDP or third front+Congress. These politically neglected castes will be in a negotiating situation. If BJP is smart and invest some money here this third front here is strongly religious hindu vote and they shoud occupy this rather than some one like Chiranjeevi or TRS etc. This is where BJP is doing blunder.