12-30-2007, 01:22 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Spy eyes sight âdemocracyâ </b>
K.P. NAYAR, The Telegraph, Dec 29, 2007
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signs the condolence register at the Pakistan embassy in New Delhi on Friday. (PTI)
Washington, Dec. 28: The spymasters in India and the US are in broad agreement that Pakistanâs army will make way for a facade of civilian representative rule â at least temporarily â if popular unrest in the wake of Benazir Bhuttoâs assassination gets out of control in the coming days.
The unrest in Sindh, the Bhutto familyâs home turf, is expected to be fanned in Punjab by Nawaz Sharif and in the northern areas of Pakistan by militants in the coming days with the common aim of getting rid of President Pervez Musharraf.
<b>The broadly agreed assessment on Pakistan between India and the US emerged during secret meetings a few weeks ago in New Delhi between Indian officials and the CIAâs top man at the agencyâs headquarters in Langley, Virginia, dealing with Pakistan.
The CIA official stopped over in New Delhi on his way home from Islamabad, where he had gone for an on-the-spot assessment of the lay of the land after the return from exile of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.</b>
The Prime Ministerâs Office initially refused high-level meetings for the CIA official, but changed its mind after officers of the Research and Analysis Wing, Indiaâs external spy agency, posted in Islamabad told New Delhi that the official had been granted meetings in Pakistan by Musharraf and the new chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani.
According to sources knowledgeable about the meetings, Indian spymasters were unusually forthcoming in their assessment that the Pakistan army would prefer to protect its âcorporate interestsâ by making way for a representative, civilian arrangement in Pakistan instead of taking a last stand like the Shah of Iran or Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines in the event of a showdown with the people.
The Indians gave this assessment when the risk to Benazirâs life was only in the realm of a threat. But it holds good for the scenario after her assassination.
To the surprise of Indians who spoke to the CIA official, he forecast a popular uprising in Pakistan in the short to medium run, fears of which are now more real after Thursdayâs tragic events in Rawalpindi.
The Indians gathered the impression from the CIA officialâs remarks that his agency and the rest of the Bush administration were not on the same page on Pakistan.
Which was not surprising because heading the Pakistan operations in the US state department and at the embassy in Islamabad are people who have absolutely no previous experience of that country.
The state departmentâs deputy spokesperson, Tom Casey, was today asked if there had been contacts about Pakistan with the Indians.
Casey hesitated, then said: âI believe the Indians have been talked â have been â had discussions as well.â
He quickly qualified those contacts with a rider that other neighbours of Pakistan had also been talked to, Afghanistan, for instance, so as to dispel the impression that there was something unusual going on with New Delhi.
National security adviser M.K. Narayanan gave a long television interview on Pakistan shortly after the meetings between the Indians and the CIA official, which is significant for what can be read between the lines.
He spoke of a new situation emerging in Pakistan, where Musharraf was the ultimate authority until recently.
âYou have three elements now as against one single unified element in the past. Quite clearly this is going to make a differenceâ¦.â
<b>Narayanan also used that interview to emphasise the importance of dealing with General Kiyani, whom he described as âa professional soldier... not a man with great political ambitionsâ.</b>
India and the US have recently shared information and coordinated actions on Nepal and Sri Lanka, but the CIA officialâs meetings in New Delhi are believed to be the most wide-ranging exchanges between the two countries on Pakistan, on which assessments in New Delhi and Washington have widely differed in the past.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
K.P. NAYAR, The Telegraph, Dec 29, 2007
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signs the condolence register at the Pakistan embassy in New Delhi on Friday. (PTI)
Washington, Dec. 28: The spymasters in India and the US are in broad agreement that Pakistanâs army will make way for a facade of civilian representative rule â at least temporarily â if popular unrest in the wake of Benazir Bhuttoâs assassination gets out of control in the coming days.
The unrest in Sindh, the Bhutto familyâs home turf, is expected to be fanned in Punjab by Nawaz Sharif and in the northern areas of Pakistan by militants in the coming days with the common aim of getting rid of President Pervez Musharraf.
<b>The broadly agreed assessment on Pakistan between India and the US emerged during secret meetings a few weeks ago in New Delhi between Indian officials and the CIAâs top man at the agencyâs headquarters in Langley, Virginia, dealing with Pakistan.
The CIA official stopped over in New Delhi on his way home from Islamabad, where he had gone for an on-the-spot assessment of the lay of the land after the return from exile of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.</b>
The Prime Ministerâs Office initially refused high-level meetings for the CIA official, but changed its mind after officers of the Research and Analysis Wing, Indiaâs external spy agency, posted in Islamabad told New Delhi that the official had been granted meetings in Pakistan by Musharraf and the new chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani.
According to sources knowledgeable about the meetings, Indian spymasters were unusually forthcoming in their assessment that the Pakistan army would prefer to protect its âcorporate interestsâ by making way for a representative, civilian arrangement in Pakistan instead of taking a last stand like the Shah of Iran or Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines in the event of a showdown with the people.
The Indians gave this assessment when the risk to Benazirâs life was only in the realm of a threat. But it holds good for the scenario after her assassination.
To the surprise of Indians who spoke to the CIA official, he forecast a popular uprising in Pakistan in the short to medium run, fears of which are now more real after Thursdayâs tragic events in Rawalpindi.
The Indians gathered the impression from the CIA officialâs remarks that his agency and the rest of the Bush administration were not on the same page on Pakistan.
Which was not surprising because heading the Pakistan operations in the US state department and at the embassy in Islamabad are people who have absolutely no previous experience of that country.
The state departmentâs deputy spokesperson, Tom Casey, was today asked if there had been contacts about Pakistan with the Indians.
Casey hesitated, then said: âI believe the Indians have been talked â have been â had discussions as well.â
He quickly qualified those contacts with a rider that other neighbours of Pakistan had also been talked to, Afghanistan, for instance, so as to dispel the impression that there was something unusual going on with New Delhi.
National security adviser M.K. Narayanan gave a long television interview on Pakistan shortly after the meetings between the Indians and the CIA official, which is significant for what can be read between the lines.
He spoke of a new situation emerging in Pakistan, where Musharraf was the ultimate authority until recently.
âYou have three elements now as against one single unified element in the past. Quite clearly this is going to make a differenceâ¦.â
<b>Narayanan also used that interview to emphasise the importance of dealing with General Kiyani, whom he described as âa professional soldier... not a man with great political ambitionsâ.</b>
India and the US have recently shared information and coordinated actions on Nepal and Sri Lanka, but the CIA officialâs meetings in New Delhi are believed to be the most wide-ranging exchanges between the two countries on Pakistan, on which assessments in New Delhi and Washington have widely differed in the past.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->