04-15-2008, 06:09 AM
<b>Restless' Independents, Not Parties, May Select U.S. President
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Heidi Przybyla Mon Apr 14, 12:01 AM ET
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama and John McCain both have a demonstrated appeal to independent voters, who may account for one-third of the vote in the general election and determine the outcome, whether the Democratic nominee is Obama or Hillary Clinton.
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Independents are the ``restless and anxious moderates,'' and their profile has ``broadened significantly'' over the past decade, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen said.
``They are much more concerned with how Washington works, with gridlock and the failure of the system, with education, the environment and fighting terrorism,'' said Schoen, author of the study, ``Declaring Independence.''
The presidential contenders are focused on securing their base. Republican Arizona Senator McCain, 71, is targeting conservatives, while the Democrats, Senators Clinton of New York, 60, and Obama of Illinois, 46, are chasing blue-collar voters.
Yet it is the independent voters who shaped both parties' fields and may decide who will become the next president.
``The candidate who wins the independent vote is the candidate who takes the oath of office,'' said Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, the second Democrat in a row to hold that office. ``People are just not as brand loyal.''
Diverse Group
While independents are a diverse group, they share some characteristics.
They are deeply pessimistic about the economy -- a majority believes it is in recession, according to the Pew Research Center in Washington. While a majority says the Iraq War was a mistake, independents are evenly divided over whether the U.S. should withdraw before the country is stable, according to Pew.
A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey conducted in February found that a plurality of these voters said the Democrats would be best at handling the economy and almost two-thirds disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.
Independents tend to be middle-income whites who live in the suburbs, rather than the cities -- which are dominated by Democrats -- or rural areas, which lean strongly Republican.
They are most concentrated in the Northeast, in states such as Connecticut, where people who aren't registered in either major party make up 45 percent of the vote, and New Hampshire, where they account for 43 percent. They are also 58 percent of voters in New Jersey, which like New Hampshire has an open primary, and are growing in number in battleground states.
Purple States
Since 1994, they have also made big gains in the South and West, which helps explain why states such as Colorado and Virginia are increasingly categorized as purple rather than red or blue, the colors used to denote Republican and Democratic affiliation.
In New Mexico, independents surged to 18 percent in 2006 from 8 percent in 1994. They increased by 13 percentage points in Florida in that period.
``They are the growth stock in terms of registered voters,'' Rhodes Cook, a politics expert in Virginia, said.
There are also regional differences, said Evans Witt, a nonpartisan pollster at Princeton Survey Research in Washington. In the mountain West, many independents adhere to a ``libertarian lifestyle'' and have been turned off by the Republicans' rightward shift on social issues, he said. In the Midwest and the South, there are large pockets of ``Reagan Democrats'' who are anxious about the economy.
In the 2004 presidential election, independents split their vote between Democrat John Kerry and Bush. They behaved in similar fashion in 2000, when Bush ran against Vice President Al Gore.
Iraq, Economy
In the past few years, the Iraq war and concerns over health care and the economy have increasingly driven independents to vote for Democrats.
According to Pew Research, independents' favorable views of the Republican Party have declined to 40 percent in 2007 from 46 percent in 2004.
``Many moderate Republicans trickled into independent status,'' Cook said.
This shift tracks a ``moderating trend'' in the nation on social issues and the role of government, according to Pew.
``As the Republican Party turned more conservative, these pro-choice, pro-gun control people tend to feel much less comfortable with the party'' and ``part of it was a reaction to the evangelical movement,'' Witt said.
Primary Strength
Both McCain and Obama displayed strength with independents in the primary season.
McCain was the one Republican candidate with appeal to these voters, who helped resurrect his flagging candidacy in the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary. On Feb. 5, he won 53 percent of the independent vote in Connecticut, and 49 percent in California.
Obama had even wider margins among independents who chose to vote in Democratic primaries: 67 percent in Missouri on Feb. 5; 69 percent in Virginia on Feb. 12; and 64 percent in Wisconsin on Feb. 19.
``Independents find both McCain and Obama equally appealing,'' said Andy Kohut, Pew's director.
Russ Oullette, an independent activist in New Hampshire, illustrates the shift. He voted for McCain in 2000 and cast his ballot for Obama in this year's primary.
The growth of independents ``scares the heck out of a lot of people,'' he said. ``They don't know how to corral us or what to say to us.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .
</b>
Heidi Przybyla Mon Apr 14, 12:01 AM ET
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama and John McCain both have a demonstrated appeal to independent voters, who may account for one-third of the vote in the general election and determine the outcome, whether the Democratic nominee is Obama or Hillary Clinton.
ADVERTISEMENT
Independents are the ``restless and anxious moderates,'' and their profile has ``broadened significantly'' over the past decade, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen said.
``They are much more concerned with how Washington works, with gridlock and the failure of the system, with education, the environment and fighting terrorism,'' said Schoen, author of the study, ``Declaring Independence.''
The presidential contenders are focused on securing their base. Republican Arizona Senator McCain, 71, is targeting conservatives, while the Democrats, Senators Clinton of New York, 60, and Obama of Illinois, 46, are chasing blue-collar voters.
Yet it is the independent voters who shaped both parties' fields and may decide who will become the next president.
``The candidate who wins the independent vote is the candidate who takes the oath of office,'' said Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, the second Democrat in a row to hold that office. ``People are just not as brand loyal.''
Diverse Group
While independents are a diverse group, they share some characteristics.
They are deeply pessimistic about the economy -- a majority believes it is in recession, according to the Pew Research Center in Washington. While a majority says the Iraq War was a mistake, independents are evenly divided over whether the U.S. should withdraw before the country is stable, according to Pew.
A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey conducted in February found that a plurality of these voters said the Democrats would be best at handling the economy and almost two-thirds disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.
Independents tend to be middle-income whites who live in the suburbs, rather than the cities -- which are dominated by Democrats -- or rural areas, which lean strongly Republican.
They are most concentrated in the Northeast, in states such as Connecticut, where people who aren't registered in either major party make up 45 percent of the vote, and New Hampshire, where they account for 43 percent. They are also 58 percent of voters in New Jersey, which like New Hampshire has an open primary, and are growing in number in battleground states.
Purple States
Since 1994, they have also made big gains in the South and West, which helps explain why states such as Colorado and Virginia are increasingly categorized as purple rather than red or blue, the colors used to denote Republican and Democratic affiliation.
In New Mexico, independents surged to 18 percent in 2006 from 8 percent in 1994. They increased by 13 percentage points in Florida in that period.
``They are the growth stock in terms of registered voters,'' Rhodes Cook, a politics expert in Virginia, said.
There are also regional differences, said Evans Witt, a nonpartisan pollster at Princeton Survey Research in Washington. In the mountain West, many independents adhere to a ``libertarian lifestyle'' and have been turned off by the Republicans' rightward shift on social issues, he said. In the Midwest and the South, there are large pockets of ``Reagan Democrats'' who are anxious about the economy.
In the 2004 presidential election, independents split their vote between Democrat John Kerry and Bush. They behaved in similar fashion in 2000, when Bush ran against Vice President Al Gore.
Iraq, Economy
In the past few years, the Iraq war and concerns over health care and the economy have increasingly driven independents to vote for Democrats.
According to Pew Research, independents' favorable views of the Republican Party have declined to 40 percent in 2007 from 46 percent in 2004.
``Many moderate Republicans trickled into independent status,'' Cook said.
This shift tracks a ``moderating trend'' in the nation on social issues and the role of government, according to Pew.
``As the Republican Party turned more conservative, these pro-choice, pro-gun control people tend to feel much less comfortable with the party'' and ``part of it was a reaction to the evangelical movement,'' Witt said.
Primary Strength
Both McCain and Obama displayed strength with independents in the primary season.
McCain was the one Republican candidate with appeal to these voters, who helped resurrect his flagging candidacy in the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary. On Feb. 5, he won 53 percent of the independent vote in Connecticut, and 49 percent in California.
Obama had even wider margins among independents who chose to vote in Democratic primaries: 67 percent in Missouri on Feb. 5; 69 percent in Virginia on Feb. 12; and 64 percent in Wisconsin on Feb. 19.
``Independents find both McCain and Obama equally appealing,'' said Andy Kohut, Pew's director.
Russ Oullette, an independent activist in New Hampshire, illustrates the shift. He voted for McCain in 2000 and cast his ballot for Obama in this year's primary.
The growth of independents ``scares the heck out of a lot of people,'' he said. ``They don't know how to corral us or what to say to us.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .