07-25-2008, 09:28 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Jul 25 2008, 12:59 AM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Jul 25 2008, 12:59 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->sroy, The psy-ops is from Telegrah which is Congress supporter owned paper. They might be playing up the RS-BJP differences to portray weakness. I agree that the loss was tactical but witch hunting could turn it into a strategic loss.
The fundamental issues were there were no political operators in BJP minding the flock. Nor in the coalition parties. The reports show petty grudges and local politics drove the defections on the NDA side. UPA was able to accomodate its supporters like SP and JMM which shows their mastery of tactics and could blowback strategically by dragging MMS into mud like the "Ashwathama hatha kunjera" did to Dharmaraja.
A cat fight inside BJP is the last thing they need to have. The better option is to have dispassionate lessons learned exercise and implement them. BTW this is the third time they lost a confidence motion. So there is something fundamentally wrong. what is it?
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Ramana,
BJP really need to go on with intensive street level campaign with copies of Hyde Act and 123. Please try to gauge the general mood. A slim majority (urban and young...they have influence in media, academia, industry) believes UPA's move is in right direction. Just because MMS has assured them. LKA has lost their confidence.
MMS has skirted a debate doesn't mean others cannot put these texts for public discourse.
MMS might say "we'll maintain minimum credible deterrence" and "there is no constraints on us for further testing". I have perfect reasons to believe him and I'll not be surprised if Americans say so. Only thing is we do not the "minimum" and what is allowed to be tested. "Ashwathama hatha kunjera" indeed.
What if MMS has agreed to limit the Indian arsenal to 12kt-15kt fission devices? And Unkil nodded that we can continue to test similar stuff in future? We become the regional satraps. Chincomms are checked, alliance with West is assured, business continues to flow. Everyone is happy. Fizzled thermonuclear test in 1998 might be a non-issue in such a scenario.
But what if we need to enter CAR of our own to tap resources, against Russian and Chinese opposition (count the Americans in then)? Or if we, after 15-20 years of sustained growth, reach the economic endurance to sustain conventional warfare to wrest back PoK? Or if our relation with the West deteriorates?
We'll need the big bomb then. If not for Anglo-Saxon great game, but at least for our version of the Great Game. Fortunately, they call it 'Akhand Bharat' and they know they need the big bomb precisely for that. Unfortunately they have failed to explain it to a larger constituency. And hence the lost opportunity for LKA.
The fundamental issues were there were no political operators in BJP minding the flock. Nor in the coalition parties. The reports show petty grudges and local politics drove the defections on the NDA side. UPA was able to accomodate its supporters like SP and JMM which shows their mastery of tactics and could blowback strategically by dragging MMS into mud like the "Ashwathama hatha kunjera" did to Dharmaraja.
A cat fight inside BJP is the last thing they need to have. The better option is to have dispassionate lessons learned exercise and implement them. BTW this is the third time they lost a confidence motion. So there is something fundamentally wrong. what is it?
[right][snapback]85007[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ramana,
BJP really need to go on with intensive street level campaign with copies of Hyde Act and 123. Please try to gauge the general mood. A slim majority (urban and young...they have influence in media, academia, industry) believes UPA's move is in right direction. Just because MMS has assured them. LKA has lost their confidence.
MMS has skirted a debate doesn't mean others cannot put these texts for public discourse.
MMS might say "we'll maintain minimum credible deterrence" and "there is no constraints on us for further testing". I have perfect reasons to believe him and I'll not be surprised if Americans say so. Only thing is we do not the "minimum" and what is allowed to be tested. "Ashwathama hatha kunjera" indeed.
What if MMS has agreed to limit the Indian arsenal to 12kt-15kt fission devices? And Unkil nodded that we can continue to test similar stuff in future? We become the regional satraps. Chincomms are checked, alliance with West is assured, business continues to flow. Everyone is happy. Fizzled thermonuclear test in 1998 might be a non-issue in such a scenario.
But what if we need to enter CAR of our own to tap resources, against Russian and Chinese opposition (count the Americans in then)? Or if we, after 15-20 years of sustained growth, reach the economic endurance to sustain conventional warfare to wrest back PoK? Or if our relation with the West deteriorates?
We'll need the big bomb then. If not for Anglo-Saxon great game, but at least for our version of the Great Game. Fortunately, they call it 'Akhand Bharat' and they know they need the big bomb precisely for that. Unfortunately they have failed to explain it to a larger constituency. And hence the lost opportunity for LKA.