08-08-2008, 09:17 AM
What I was trying to say is that we have been happy about how the Congress has lost 10 state elections in a row.
There have been reports of elections in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and MP being very close.
In fact in MP, the reputation of the govt is that it is very corrupt.
Though the BJP will win in Delhi and do well in J &K, it has to win at least two out of the three states I have mentioned. Otherwise the hopes of NDA coming to power become bleak and the 2009 might become the most fractured mandate ever and the pseudo secularists will come to power again.
BJP knows about the problems in MP and knows that the other two states are also up in the air. They are most likely to drop some of the sitting MLAs, Gujarat style.
The Amarnath and the terrorists attacks and inflation also provide conducive environment for the BJP. However, if because of anti incumbency, BJP loses a couple of the three states I mentioned, we are not in good position for 2009 elections.
One thing that might work for BJP is if BSP increases vote share in these states. So far inspite of the hype, BSP has performed poorly in Gujarat, HP and Karnataka.
But MP is close to UP and part of the Hindi belt. So we should be praying that Maywati takes an additional 5% of Dalit votes from Congress. If that happens, BJP will win and we will be happy. :-)
There have been reports of elections in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and MP being very close.
In fact in MP, the reputation of the govt is that it is very corrupt.
Though the BJP will win in Delhi and do well in J &K, it has to win at least two out of the three states I have mentioned. Otherwise the hopes of NDA coming to power become bleak and the 2009 might become the most fractured mandate ever and the pseudo secularists will come to power again.
BJP knows about the problems in MP and knows that the other two states are also up in the air. They are most likely to drop some of the sitting MLAs, Gujarat style.
The Amarnath and the terrorists attacks and inflation also provide conducive environment for the BJP. However, if because of anti incumbency, BJP loses a couple of the three states I mentioned, we are not in good position for 2009 elections.
One thing that might work for BJP is if BSP increases vote share in these states. So far inspite of the hype, BSP has performed poorly in Gujarat, HP and Karnataka.
But MP is close to UP and part of the Hindi belt. So we should be praying that Maywati takes an additional 5% of Dalit votes from Congress. If that happens, BJP will win and we will be happy. :-)