In fact I am going to make another speculation about this 3.4% drop in the national BJP voteshare.
Can the proportion of the "original" Hindutva voter in the national vote be gauged from the first few national elections?
In 1951, Jan Sangh received 3.06% of votes winning 3 Lok Sabha seats, and Hindu Mahasabha 0.9% votes winning 4 seats. Hindutva total: about 4% votes with 7 seats. Congress 44.9%. Communists (CPI+ FB + RSP) about 5.5%.
58 years later, communists are almost at the same vote share, and at the same seat share.
What has happened to the 1951 Congress votes of 44.9%?
Looks like these have drifted to what is BJP votes today. (BJP-09:18.8% + Congress09:28.5%) = 47.3%.
So can we guess that like the original communist vote, original Hindutva vote is still around 3.9% nationally, concentrated as these were, in the same pockets of the country???
Can the proportion of the "original" Hindutva voter in the national vote be gauged from the first few national elections?
In 1951, Jan Sangh received 3.06% of votes winning 3 Lok Sabha seats, and Hindu Mahasabha 0.9% votes winning 4 seats. Hindutva total: about 4% votes with 7 seats. Congress 44.9%. Communists (CPI+ FB + RSP) about 5.5%.
58 years later, communists are almost at the same vote share, and at the same seat share.
What has happened to the 1951 Congress votes of 44.9%?
Looks like these have drifted to what is BJP votes today. (BJP-09:18.8% + Congress09:28.5%) = 47.3%.
So can we guess that like the original communist vote, original Hindutva vote is still around 3.9% nationally, concentrated as these were, in the same pockets of the country???