Afghanistan - News and Discussion

[Guest]

Monday, February 1, 2010

Bad news from Afghanistan

Balbir K Punj

pioneer.com

A combination of events with respect to the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan clearly shows that we are better off relying on our own resources to counter the rising threat of Islamism. However much we may like to avoid giving this threat a religious label, it is increasingly becoming difficult not to do so.



Let us consider the evidence first. According to the New York Times, senior American military officers are disappointed over the Pakistani Army’s announcement last week that it will not launch any new attacks against the Taliban in the next six to 12 months. At the same time, the thinking that the war against the Taliban is futile and that it is better to come to some sort of an understanding with the terrorists to cut losses and get out of Afghanistan as soon as possible, is fast gaining ground. Afghan President Hamid Karzai is also seeking the removal of names of some senior Taliban leaders from the UN’s terror list as a first step toward opening direct negotiations with the Islamists.



The UN’s special representative in Kabul, Mr Kai Eide, too is pushing for face-to-face talks between Afghan officials and Taliban leaders, many of whom are hiding in Pakistan. As Pakistan still has considerable sway over the Taliban, once they are back in power in Kabul, Islamabad will regain its strategic depth. All this while Pakistan’s strategy has been to reacquire full control over Afghanistan through a proxy regime and reverse the Indian presence in that country.



American and Nato leaders who are promoting the idea of negotiations with the Taliban believe that once they offer jobs and money to the jihadis they will gradually give up the path of extremism. Such fanciful notions ignore the basic characteristic of Islamic extremism that rejects any modern concept of progress. These policy alternatives also overlook the fact that terror masterminds are not poor Muslims who have been misled by promises of money or a better life but belong to well-to-do, educated families like the Nigerian bomber who tried to blow up an American passenger aircraft last Christmas. To be fair, the UN special representative is also reported to have said, “I don’t believe that it’s as simple as saying that these are people who are unemployed, and if we find them employment they will go our way. Reintegration by itself is not enough.”



Nonetheless, it is safe to say that US President Barack Obama’s AfPak policy is in tatters. The other day, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani responded to Union Home Minister P Chidambaram’s warning that any further attack of the 26/11 type mounted from Pakistani soil would have serious consequences on India-Pakistan relations by saying: “We ourselves are targets of attack by extremists. If we cannot protect our own people, how can we prevent attacks on India?”



Six months back the Americans were pushing Pakistan to eliminate the Taliban base in Waziristan. The Pakistani Army was told that economic and military aid would depend upon action against the jihadis. However, instead of falling in line, the Pakistani Army dismissed the terms and conditions attached to the $ 7.5 billion American aid package as well as its military aid component.



This has placed the US in a tough situation wherein its key non-Nato ally in the region is refusing to cooperate in eliminating the Taliban so that the Karzai regime in Kabul could have some breathing space. Needless to say that this is all part of Pakistan’s strategy to frustrate the US into getting out of Afghanistan.



The present situation suits both the Taliban and the Pakistani Army. Besides, it fits well with the global aim of jihadi Islam. Recently, Pakistan advised the separatist movement leaders in Kashmir, including the moderate faction of the Hurriyat, not to accept New Delhi’s invitation for talks on the State’s political future. This has made clear the real masters of the separatists.



Today, the UPA Government is seen as so ineffective that even Nepal has not bothered to respond to its request to allow Indian air marshals on board Air India flights bound for and from that country. Meanwhile, intelligence inputs continue to reveal the possibility of terrorist attacks on our cities and sensitive installations in the near future, keeping the security apparatus on tenterhooks.



It is no secret that groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed are very much part of the Pakistani Army’s extended military assets against India. And irrespective of what anybody says, it is a fact that Pakistan continues to view India as its enemy No 1. The latest we have in a series of intelligence inputs is that Pakistan-based extremists are planning a massive attack against India and that they could be using gliders for this purpose.



With the distinct possibility of the US throwing in the towel in Afghanistan, New Delhi will have to rethink its strategy on tackling Islamist terror groups. Noted American journalist Steve Coll, who has written two important books on the Afghanistan-Pakistan situation — Ghost Wars and The Bin Ladens — has rightly said that “India’s security problems are graver than America’s in relation to jihadi terrorism”.



For us the rise of Islamist terror is an immediate and present danger. We are most vulnerable to the appeal of jihadi triumphalism. Either we understand this ugly reality and act or face the prospect of seeing our free, open and plural society vanish. The choices that we make today in this regard will have significant consequences for our future generations. We must act now before it is too late