03-01-2005, 03:53 AM
From Deccan.com. The author is the same person who was quoted in the first post of this thread.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>United? Progressive? Alliance is over </b>
Solitics by Siddhartha Reddy
Sonia Gandhi turned out to be the biggest loser in this round of Assembly elections. From the high pedestal of May 2004 where she united all the anti-BJP forces, Sonia Gandhi has slipped by trying to occupy space from her allies. She has forfeited the trust and respect of her allies.
Bihar would have had Presidentâs Rule, but Laluâs support is required in Jharkhand. Sonia Gandhi has to make a quick deal to give Bihar to Lalu in exchange for support in Jharkhand, conceding big demands by Paswan. Sonia Gandhi and L K Advani have slipped for the same reason: that the party is just an instrument to achieve absolute power and mega resource mobilisation.
Advani and Sonia are designing an exclusive two-party system, so that the nation has no third choice. They want to eliminate regional parties. In 2004, Advani assumed that the BJP was shining so brightly that it was time to take over. He aborted the partyâs alliance with the JMM.
The BJP lost 13 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. Advani refused the AGP request for an additional seat thus negating another alliance. The Congress-Bodos won 10 seats. Otherwise, the Congress would have won only two. He also drove Om Prakash Chautala out of the Haryana alliance. Congress won nine Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. Otherwise, the BJP would have won five, Chautala three and Congress two.
Had an arrogant Advani not driven out his allies in Haryana, Jharkhand and Assam, then the BJP tally would have been 155 and the Congress, 125. The BJP would have been the single largest party and President A P J Abdul Kalam would have invited Atal Behari Vajpayee to form the government. Most Congress allies like Karunanidhi, Vaiko and Ramadoss would have accepted Vajpayee as PM.
The BJP could have happily ruled thereafter. When ordinary mortals are at the helm of political parties, money and power generate arrogance, intolerance, immorality, corruption. Arrogance destroys the most powerful of empires. The Kauravas were destroyed by Duryodhanaâs AICC: Arrogance, Intolerance, Care-a-damn-attitude, Cronyism.Â
Duryodhana was not corrupt but todayâs leaders are. Congress tickets were sold to the highest bidder. Congressmen who for years dedicatedly fought Chautalaâs INLD, BJP and even Lalu were denied tickets by the AICC managers; hence the devastation, both in Bihar and Jharkhand.
Having made a variety of small parties agree to a Congress-led Central government in May 2004, Sonia Gandhi set her sight on absolute power. Her grand design is to secure 272 plus Lok Sabha seats at the earliest. But thatâs possible only by weakening her allies, destroying them, occupying their electoral space and grabbing all anti-BJP votes to win the Lok Sabha seats. A glimpse of that unwise strategy was obvious in these Assembly elections.
In Bihar, had Sonia reciprocated Laluâs support in Delhi by accepting the 30 seats offered, then the UPA, in a straight fight with the NDA, would have wiped out the JD(U)-BJP alliance. The RJD would have won 125 seats and the Congress 25. But Sonia Gandhi would not accept this simple straight-forward scenario, because destroying Lalu was a must to capture Biharâs 40 Lok Sabha seats, prior to an Uttar Pradesh initiative to destroy Mulayam to capture 80 seats.
Only after that could Sonia call a snap Lok Sabha poll, secure a clear majority and force Kalam to invite her to be PM. There is no other way. As an alternative, Sonia could have broken away from the RJD and struck an alliance with Nitish and Paswan. In a three-way fight (Sonia-Nitish-Paswan vs RJD vs BJP), Soniaâs alliance would have got 125 seats, BJP 20, independents 20 and RJD 75. But such courage, character, conviction did not appeal to Sonia.
Sonia wanted the best of both worlds: keep taking Laluâs support in Delhi but strengthen his opponents in Bihar to unclasp his control over the Bihar government. In trying to decimate Lalu, Sonia resurrected a dead BJP. Out of power, the BJP shark was desperately gasping, out of electoral reckoning. Soniaâs mishandling of things put the BJP shark back into electoral waters. In Jharkhand, in a straight fight, the UPA could have easily won 60 seats had they apportioned seats amicably among allies.
But then Sonia Gandhi wanted to erase Lalu from Jharkhand and diminish the JMM. Her strategy was to ensure that the JMM got fewer seats than the Congress so that the Chief Minister could be from her party. Stephen Marandi was told that he could be a surprise CM candidate with the Congressâ backing. Stephen Marandi was enticed to desert the JMM to weaken Shibu Soren and defeat JMM candidates.
Her effort to destabilise the JMM, resulted in saving the BJP from a disastrous defeat and almost securing its return to power in the state. It was just Lalu who prevented a clear BJP victory. With hung Assemblies in both Bihar and Jharkhand, the governors will come into play. Jharkhand governor Syed Sibtey Razi will swear in a UPA government giving it a strong double headache of Lalu and Stephen Marandi. Bihar governor Buta Singh will swear in a non-BJP government giving it enough time to prove a majority. Congress will be Laluâs doormat in Bihar for a long long time.
Muslim support got Ram Vilas Paswan 30 seats. So betraying Muslims and teaming up with the BJP will destroy his credibility among the Muslims, unless Paswan bargains to be CM and lets the future handle itself. Alternatively, Paswan could secure a lucrative berth for his brother in the Bihar Cabinet and a bigger portfolio at Centre for himself to facilitate a non-BJP State government.
Haryana is the only saving grace for the Congress. A confluence of Congress-BJP votes defeated the INLD. Non-Jats never vote for Chautala. Jats acknowledged Chautalaâs development initiative but refused to pardon his sonsâ rash behaviour. Bhajan Lal refused Soniaâs offer to be governor. Bhajan Lal could use MLA pressure and resources to sway decision making. But her surprise choice for the Chief Ministerâs post could be Union Minister Kumari Selja, who however hurt her prospects by failing to get her cousin elected. If the phenomenal support to Congress is recognised, then a Jat could be CM.
As for Advani, he will continue to be the cork on the BJP bottle, while Vajpayee slumbers and BJP withers. The UPA ceases to be a United Progressive Alliance. Harkishan Singh Surjeet, Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi, Shibu Soren, Lalu, Mulayam and Deve Gowda, all feel betrayed and are biding time to strike at the Congress. Karuna-nidhi is keen on a BJP supported non-Congress government, but <b>Sonia could pre-empt an alternative government by dissolving the Lok Sabha. India may have to prepare for a winter mid-term poll.</b>
Siddhartha Reddy can be contacted at siddharthareddy@hotmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>United? Progressive? Alliance is over </b>
Solitics by Siddhartha Reddy
Sonia Gandhi turned out to be the biggest loser in this round of Assembly elections. From the high pedestal of May 2004 where she united all the anti-BJP forces, Sonia Gandhi has slipped by trying to occupy space from her allies. She has forfeited the trust and respect of her allies.
Bihar would have had Presidentâs Rule, but Laluâs support is required in Jharkhand. Sonia Gandhi has to make a quick deal to give Bihar to Lalu in exchange for support in Jharkhand, conceding big demands by Paswan. Sonia Gandhi and L K Advani have slipped for the same reason: that the party is just an instrument to achieve absolute power and mega resource mobilisation.
Advani and Sonia are designing an exclusive two-party system, so that the nation has no third choice. They want to eliminate regional parties. In 2004, Advani assumed that the BJP was shining so brightly that it was time to take over. He aborted the partyâs alliance with the JMM.
The BJP lost 13 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. Advani refused the AGP request for an additional seat thus negating another alliance. The Congress-Bodos won 10 seats. Otherwise, the Congress would have won only two. He also drove Om Prakash Chautala out of the Haryana alliance. Congress won nine Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. Otherwise, the BJP would have won five, Chautala three and Congress two.
Had an arrogant Advani not driven out his allies in Haryana, Jharkhand and Assam, then the BJP tally would have been 155 and the Congress, 125. The BJP would have been the single largest party and President A P J Abdul Kalam would have invited Atal Behari Vajpayee to form the government. Most Congress allies like Karunanidhi, Vaiko and Ramadoss would have accepted Vajpayee as PM.
The BJP could have happily ruled thereafter. When ordinary mortals are at the helm of political parties, money and power generate arrogance, intolerance, immorality, corruption. Arrogance destroys the most powerful of empires. The Kauravas were destroyed by Duryodhanaâs AICC: Arrogance, Intolerance, Care-a-damn-attitude, Cronyism.Â
Duryodhana was not corrupt but todayâs leaders are. Congress tickets were sold to the highest bidder. Congressmen who for years dedicatedly fought Chautalaâs INLD, BJP and even Lalu were denied tickets by the AICC managers; hence the devastation, both in Bihar and Jharkhand.
Having made a variety of small parties agree to a Congress-led Central government in May 2004, Sonia Gandhi set her sight on absolute power. Her grand design is to secure 272 plus Lok Sabha seats at the earliest. But thatâs possible only by weakening her allies, destroying them, occupying their electoral space and grabbing all anti-BJP votes to win the Lok Sabha seats. A glimpse of that unwise strategy was obvious in these Assembly elections.
In Bihar, had Sonia reciprocated Laluâs support in Delhi by accepting the 30 seats offered, then the UPA, in a straight fight with the NDA, would have wiped out the JD(U)-BJP alliance. The RJD would have won 125 seats and the Congress 25. But Sonia Gandhi would not accept this simple straight-forward scenario, because destroying Lalu was a must to capture Biharâs 40 Lok Sabha seats, prior to an Uttar Pradesh initiative to destroy Mulayam to capture 80 seats.
Only after that could Sonia call a snap Lok Sabha poll, secure a clear majority and force Kalam to invite her to be PM. There is no other way. As an alternative, Sonia could have broken away from the RJD and struck an alliance with Nitish and Paswan. In a three-way fight (Sonia-Nitish-Paswan vs RJD vs BJP), Soniaâs alliance would have got 125 seats, BJP 20, independents 20 and RJD 75. But such courage, character, conviction did not appeal to Sonia.
Sonia wanted the best of both worlds: keep taking Laluâs support in Delhi but strengthen his opponents in Bihar to unclasp his control over the Bihar government. In trying to decimate Lalu, Sonia resurrected a dead BJP. Out of power, the BJP shark was desperately gasping, out of electoral reckoning. Soniaâs mishandling of things put the BJP shark back into electoral waters. In Jharkhand, in a straight fight, the UPA could have easily won 60 seats had they apportioned seats amicably among allies.
But then Sonia Gandhi wanted to erase Lalu from Jharkhand and diminish the JMM. Her strategy was to ensure that the JMM got fewer seats than the Congress so that the Chief Minister could be from her party. Stephen Marandi was told that he could be a surprise CM candidate with the Congressâ backing. Stephen Marandi was enticed to desert the JMM to weaken Shibu Soren and defeat JMM candidates.
Her effort to destabilise the JMM, resulted in saving the BJP from a disastrous defeat and almost securing its return to power in the state. It was just Lalu who prevented a clear BJP victory. With hung Assemblies in both Bihar and Jharkhand, the governors will come into play. Jharkhand governor Syed Sibtey Razi will swear in a UPA government giving it a strong double headache of Lalu and Stephen Marandi. Bihar governor Buta Singh will swear in a non-BJP government giving it enough time to prove a majority. Congress will be Laluâs doormat in Bihar for a long long time.
Muslim support got Ram Vilas Paswan 30 seats. So betraying Muslims and teaming up with the BJP will destroy his credibility among the Muslims, unless Paswan bargains to be CM and lets the future handle itself. Alternatively, Paswan could secure a lucrative berth for his brother in the Bihar Cabinet and a bigger portfolio at Centre for himself to facilitate a non-BJP State government.
Haryana is the only saving grace for the Congress. A confluence of Congress-BJP votes defeated the INLD. Non-Jats never vote for Chautala. Jats acknowledged Chautalaâs development initiative but refused to pardon his sonsâ rash behaviour. Bhajan Lal refused Soniaâs offer to be governor. Bhajan Lal could use MLA pressure and resources to sway decision making. But her surprise choice for the Chief Ministerâs post could be Union Minister Kumari Selja, who however hurt her prospects by failing to get her cousin elected. If the phenomenal support to Congress is recognised, then a Jat could be CM.
As for Advani, he will continue to be the cork on the BJP bottle, while Vajpayee slumbers and BJP withers. The UPA ceases to be a United Progressive Alliance. Harkishan Singh Surjeet, Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi, Shibu Soren, Lalu, Mulayam and Deve Gowda, all feel betrayed and are biding time to strike at the Congress. Karuna-nidhi is keen on a BJP supported non-Congress government, but <b>Sonia could pre-empt an alternative government by dissolving the Lok Sabha. India may have to prepare for a winter mid-term poll.</b>
Siddhartha Reddy can be contacted at siddharthareddy@hotmail.com
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