Wikileaks - India

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More Demonstrations Expected

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¶4. © Muslim demonstrations in India center around the Friday prayers. July 28 was largely quiet. The big exception was at Old Delhi's Jamma Mosque. In his Friday sermon, Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari told the congregation that Israeli actions in Lebanon ""had the full backing of the United States,"" and was part of a continuing pattern of Israeli and American attacks against Lebanon and Palestine. Bukhari pointed out that the GOI had long been sympathetic towards the aspirations of the Palestinian people, but had now changed its tune, as it had become ""US-centric."" He accused the GOI of taking a muddled stance on the Lebanon issue in response to American pressure. Muslims paraded through the old city after the prayers waving Palestinian flags and shouting anti-Israel slogans. Our Muslim sources tell us that Muslim organizations are planning large anti-Israel and anti-US demonstrations after the Friday prayers on August 4, which they expect will be much more widespread and virulent than on July 28.



Views of a Leading Maulvi

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¶5. © [b]Poloff met with Imam Bukhari on August 1 to sound him out about the Lebanon situation.[/b] He predicted that August 4 would be a quiet Friday and that we should expect a quiet weekend. Noting that he had already made a statement on the issue, Bukhari said he had no intention of bringing it up again. He pointed out that the large anti-US demonstrations that took place during the POTUS visit were motivated by the controversy surrounding the Danish cartoons and that Indian Muslims did not look at the Lebanon issue in the same light.[color="#FF0000"] Without that emotional catalyst, he maintained, there was little likelihood of a massive spontaneous outburst.[/color] According to Bukhari, Indian Muslims look to their leadership to organize a successful agitation, and in this case no ""trusted leader"" has stepped forward. He claimed that several organizations had approached him to lead demonstrations on August 4, but he declined.



Support for Lebanon Not Hizbollah

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¶6. © This does not mean, however, that Indian Muslims are not angry. Bukhari emphasized that there is universal support for Lebanon and against Israel. Despite this, [color="#FF0000"]Muslims in India are inherently ""weak"" and incapable of concerted action without direction from above. Bukhari also pointed out that Indian Muslims do not widely admire[/color]



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organizations like Hizbollah and the Taliban, as they are ""always preaching war."" Most Indian Muslims have concluded that ""there is something wrong"" with the Jihad approach to Muslim problems. There is a perception that Jihadis are not ""blessed by Allah."" Instead, Indian Muslims look for a ""positive approach."" He asserted that despite the media hype, there has been no appreciable increase of support for Hizbollah in India and that Indian Muslims are tired of the Sunni/Shia divide and look at sectarian organizations like Hizbollah with suspicion.



But Tempers Could Blow

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¶7. © Bukhari warned, however, that Muslim sentiments will become roused if the Lebanon situation goes on much longer, as ""oppression of innocents unites Muslims."" He noted that the onus is on the US and the UN to end this ""oppression"" before sentiments get out of hand. He asserted that Indian Muslims are universally unhappy with the Bush administration's support for Israel, stating that you can ""ask any Muslim and they will tell you they are unhappy with Condaleeza Rice's statement that Israel has the right to defend itself."" He confirmed that Indian Muslims will ""blame the US"" for Israel's actions. Conceding that ""Hizbollah is not a great organization,"" he lamented what he called Israeli over-reaction, saying ""you cannot fight a fire with more fire."" Bukhari urged the USG to sponsor a conference on the Middle East in which prominent Muslims could sit down and discuss US foreign policy with a USG representative, saying that this would go a long way towards cooling tempers.



Barelvi Maulvi Less Complacent

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¶8. © Qari Mian Mazari, a leading Maulvi politician from the moderate Barelvi school, was less complacent than Imam Bukhari. He maintained that Muslim emotions were being fired-up by a steady stream of propaganda from the Urdu press. He pointed out that there are over 100 Urdu newspapers in India with an enormous influence over Muslim attitudes.[color="#FF0000"] Mazari claimed that the Iranian Embassy had paid for the placement of 15 anti-Israel/anti-US articles in the Urdu press since hostilities began in Lebanon and planned to continue to spending large sums to play up the Lebanon story. He was particularly angry with the Urdu newspaper ""Nai Duniya (New World),"" which is published by Shahid Siddiqi, a Muslim MP from the Samajwadi Party (SP). Mazari noted that Siddiqi had published a special edition of the paper with 24 pages devoted to the glorification of Hizbollah and had distributed 50,000 copies free of charge throughout India. He claimed that the entire project was funded by Teheran. [/color]



¶9. © According to Mazari a loose group of ""wahhabi"" organizations including the Jamaat-Islami, and Jamaat-i-Ulema-i-Hind and the recently-founded ""Peoples' Democratic Front"" of firebrand Shia cleric Kalbe Jawad, have organized protests to follow Friday prayers on August 4. Although these organizations are well-funded, he noted, they have only limited appeal. Mazari agreed with Bukhari that Muslim groups that ""go for the negative"" do not fare well in India. He asserted, however, that Kalbe Jawad's Lucknow following would ensure a sizable turn-out in the Uttar Pradesh capital.



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Muslim Cross-section Angry and Adamant

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¶10. © [color="#FF0000"]On August 2, Poloff met with six Muslims, including a Deobandi Maulvi, a Secretary in All Indian Congress Committee, the leader of a Muslim NGO, and several journalists and Congress party workers to discuss Lebanon/Gaza developments[/color]. They expressed happiness with UPA handling of Middle East developments, pointing out that 18 Muslim MPs from various parties met with both the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi to discuss the Lebanon/Gaza issue. In the meeting, the MPs purportedly told the PM and Party President that they unanimously condemned the Israeli actions and urged India to push for an immediate cease fire and for a resolution of all disputes through negotiations rather than armed conflict. The MPs were said to be pleased with their reception and the reassurances provided by Mrs. Gandhi and the PM, who agreed that a committee of Muslim MPs would provide ""advice"" to the GOI on Middle East policy.



¶11. © The group were unhappy with the Urdu media, accusing Urdu newspapers of ""exploiting the feelings of Muslims to encourage sales."" They pointed out that ""educated Muslims"" did not rely on emotions and took a more detached approach to the issues. All agreed that Muslims in India viewed events in Lebanon as a clear case of Israeli aggression. They noted that Muslims may not take out mass processions and protests, but were angry and ""protesting"" in myriads of ways, such as letters to the editor, speeches during Friday prayers and statements in Parliament. They also stated that in Muslim eyes, the US was ""protecting"" Israel and this was increasing anti-US sentiment. They noted that the popular view is that the UN and world opinion had condemned ""Israeli aggression,"" but the US had ignored these developments and ""encouraged Israel to act immorally."" This ""double standard,"" they asserted, [color="#FF0000"]had negated all USG Muslim outreach efforts of the past year. [/color]



Overlap With the Left

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¶12. © Muslims are not the only group that has focused on events in Lebanon. India's Leftists have an historic animosity against Israel, routinely link the USG with Israeli policy, and do not want to see New Delhi and Washington growing too close. Their attitude was summed up in a July 26 editorial in ""The Telegraph,"" by veteran journalist KP Nayar, who has close ties to Left. Nayar asserts that the Israeli action against Lebanon mirrors the US policy in Iraq and that both will backfire. He predicted that the Israeli ""aggression"" will destroy Lebanon's nascent democratic government, while increasing the prestige and power of both Hizbollah and Syria. This, he asserted, will reconfigure opposition to Israel into a strict Islamic mode, and Israel will face ""a formidable, wholly radical Islamist enemy in Palestinian territories.""



¶13. © Nayar maintained that this will have a huge impact on Indian Muslims, who will become energized against the US and the budding US/India relationship. As proof, Nayar pointed to a June 22 meeting between two Muslim Congress leaders from Kerala and Party President Sonia Gandhi in which they purportedly ""emphasized to her the need for the UPA to



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demonstrate to India's minorities that the country was not cosying up to America."" Nayar asserted that ""from Malaysia to Morocco, for Muslims, America is the number one enemy today. To ignore that sentiment in a country with around 140 million Muslims is to ignore a sizable segment of public opinion.""



But No Intention to Rock the Boat

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¶14. © In an August 2 meeting, veteran journalist Zafar Agha opined that while the Left has traditionally staked out a pro-Palestine stance, it was not going to press the Lebanon/Gaza issue this time. [color="#FF0000"]Agha noted that there is a growing consensus among the Left parties that it does no good to overly antagonize the US. This, claimed Agha, stems from the increasing stake that the Left has in managing West Bengal and Kerala and the lack of economic alternatives. The pro-investment camp has purportedly determined that foreign policy issues should not be allowed to endanger foreign investments. Agha maintained that the Left leaders, like the rest of the Indian upper middle class, send their children to study in the US and expect them to land good jobs in American multinationals afterwards and don't want to endanger their future. <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Thus, he emphasized, the Left will make common cause with the Muslims on Lebanon, but only up to a point and not enough to endanger the status quo. [/color]



¶15. © Agha also maintained that the Muslims will ""lie low,"" as they are still reeling from the aftereffects of the Mumbai terrorist attack. The attack focused unwanted attention on the Muslim community and encouraged Hindu nationalists to link Muslims with terrorism. The security apparatus also supposedly engaged in wholesale roundups of Muslims in Mumbai, arresting 2,000 innocent Muslim males and holding them on suspicion, many because they wore skullcaps and beards. Agha stated that with the Mumbai bombing such a recent occurrence, Muslims would not prefer to take to the streets over Lebanon and attract a feared backlash. Describing the Indian Muslim leadership as a ""bunch of mercenaries,"" [color="#FF0000"]Agha was all but certain that the GOI/UPA had paid off most prominent leaders to maintain peace, leaving only those on Iran's payroll to sponsor demonstrations[/color].



Has an Impact on the GOI

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¶16. © Imam Bukhari asserted to his congregation on July 28 that the GOI was rudderless when it came to events in Lebanon as it had grown too close to the US. Stung, and mindful of the electoral clout of Muslims, the GOI moved quickly on August 1 to dispel such notions. In a statement by its official spokesman, the MEA asserted that, ""India strongly condemns the continued irresponsible and indiscriminate bombing of Lebanon by the Israeli military, ignoring calls for restraint. Particularly outrageous is the bombing this morning of a building in Qana in South Lebanon."" The MEA statement went on to call for an ""immediate and unconditional cease-fire."" In addition, Parliament on July 31 passed a unanimous resolution strongly condemning ""the large-scale and indiscriminate bombing by the Zionist Regime on Lebanon,"" and calling for an ""immediate and unconditional cease-fire to prevent further destruction in Lebanon."" These overt condemnations of Israeli policy have yet to have an impact on



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burgeoning India/Israel ties. The GOI's quiet, but growing technology and security relationship with Israel continues unabated.



Limited but Noticeable Impact on PA Programs

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¶17. © The conflict in Lebanon has had a direct impact on some PA programs, while others have proceeded normally. PA speaker Akram Elias, a Lebanese-American (Christian) in India and part of a program on ""Religious Diversity in the US,"" had two of his speaking engagements canceled due to opposition to US policy in support of Israel. ""Islamic Voice,"" a moderate Muslim magazine in Bangalore canceled his program after receiving letters of protest and threat saying is was inappropriate to have a US-Lebanese speaker now. Saifia College, a Muslim college in Bhopal, also canceled a program citing scheduling problems, although an official informally informed the Embassy it was due to US policy supporting ""Israeli aggression.""



¶18. © Separately, a media outreach program with US speaker Dr. Wais, a scholar on the Urdu language, has proceeded normally in Moradabad (UP), with a DVC with Kashmir University in Srinagar, and a lunch for Muslim Urdu editors in Delhi. Finally, 15 students from Jamia Millia University in Delhi backed out of a planned ""town hall"" meeting [color="#FF0000"]with A/S Boucher[/color] citing their opposition to US policy in Lebanon.



The Muslim Factor

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¶19. © Congress came to power on the strength of its oft-proclaimed ""secularism."" It contrasted its attitude towards ""minorities"" (meaning Muslims) with that of the Hindu nationalist BJP. Many commentators have asserted that with the strong overlap in economic and foreign policy between the two parties, this was one undeniable difference. Since coming to power, Congress has tried to win back the Muslim voter from the regional parties to which most Muslims currently claim allegiance. Indian Muslims have demonstrated time and again that they are opposed to the US tilt towards Israel and have strong sympathies with Palestine (and now the people of Lebanon). In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), the ruling Samajwadi Party has determined that the best way to maintain Muslim allegiance is to adopt a pro-Iran, pro-Hizbollah, anti-Israel, anti-US stance. While Congress would like to win over the Muslims, it is constrained as to how far it can go, as it does not want to risk alienating the US. At the same time, the Left wing of Congress and the Communist/Socialist parties of the Left front share a deep animosity to US Middle East policy. This has forced the GOI to play a delicate balancing act.



¶20. © Much will depend on the reaction of Indian Muslims to Middle East events. So far, while Muslims are smoldering, their deep resentments have not burst into flame. Demonstrations and public outpouring of emotion have been few. We should expect more demonstrations on August 4 and perhaps throughout the