PTI reports on CBN's musings.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Relations with BJP had negative impact on minority votes: TDP
Press Trust of India
Hyderabad, May 9, 2005
 Â
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A year after its defeat and a week after signs of distancing from BJP, the <b>Telugu Desam Party has for the first time admitted that relations with the saffron party and the Gujarat violence had a "negative effect" on its minority vote bank in the last year's elections and appears to be keeping its options open on joining Left parties in forging a 'Third Front'.</b>
The TDP supremo and former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, who recently asked his party to keep away from the BJP-led NDA's boycott of Parliament and met DMK Chief M Karunanidhi triggering speculation about his future moves, is not yet ready to come out openly on what he proposed to do.
In an hour-long interview on Monday, he gave enough indications that he was not comfortable with emerging strident voices of 'Hindutva' in BJP and appeared warming up to a relationship with Left parties and constituents of the erstwhile United Front, though he was not sure when such a situation will evolve. "Whenever somebody fails and there is a political vacuum, it will emerge", is all what he would say.
Careful with words, the Leader of the Opposition in Andhra Assembly parried questions on his strategies and gave an impression that he would like to wait and watch at least till the next round of crucial assembly elections especially in West Bengal and Kerala where UPA constituents Congress and Left parties are main rivals.
"We have no relations with BJP. Whenever there were common issues, we supported. Sometimes, we even differed," is what he would say and not go further to questions whether last week's decision to break ranks with NDA on boycott of Parliament signalled the beginning of end of its relations with BJP.
<b>Naidu, in an introspective mood said, "We totally oppose Hindutva, we are committed to secularism and harmony among all communities. We are for resolution of Ayodhya dispute through judicial process and the court verdict should be respected by all."</b>
Explaining his party's stand, he said it was totally anguished at the time of post-Godhra riots and had asked for the resignation of Chief Minister Narendra Modi, which the BJP had rejected.
In protest, the party had refused to accept the Lok Sabha speakership after the death of TDP incumbent GMC Balayogi.
Asked why his party, on whose backing the NDA Government was surviving, did not withdraw support, Naidu said, "I did it differently."
Do your regret your support to BJP, he said, "I do want to go into what happened in the past. We will think about what we should do in the future. There are so many issues."
Elaborating on the point how relationship with BJP had adversely affected TDP, in the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections when he lost power, Naidu said "The Gujarat problem did have a negative impact on the minorities support for TDP despite his Government's numerous steps for their welfare. We were not partners in NDA even when we supported the Government."
Even the support to BJP-led NDA coalition had a negative impact. Even now, in the coming municipal elections in the state we are not having any alliance with BJP," he said.
On why the party decided to end the parliamentary boycott, he said as a matter of opposition floor coordination his party supported the NDA on the issue of sacking of the tainted ministers from the Government but beyond a stage "we need to discuss issues in Parliament." Asked if BJP was unhappy over TDP'S decision to end the boycott, he said the BJP leadership had not talked to him after the party took the decision.
Asked about the significance of his meeting with Karunanidhi, he maintained that it was a courtesy call and no political meaning should be read into it.
"We are acting independently and we have done it on the basis of issues. We have taken note of Basu's statement," is all what he would reply.
On the possibility of Third Front and realignment of political forces, he said, "People are talking about it. Whenever there is a political vacuum, then it (front) will emerge. Third front or for that matter any other Front can emerge with parties who are now with NDA or UPA."
Asked when it would happen, Naidu who had played a leading role in the formation of United
Front in mid-1990s, said, "Whenever there is a vacuum and when somebody fails, there is the possibility of such a formation. That is how it happened earlier."
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He might be trying to revive the UF again. If he blames the TD electoral defeat on their association with NDA he is incorrect. In AP, TD got defeated because there were splits in his own party. His high handedness was a major factor that persuaded the officials that it was the right time to not support and rig as usual. Rural indebtedness and farmer sucides also played a major part. It is another matter that number of suicides increased after INC took over(- the reason is the grant of money to such cases provides incentive- INC should have limited the monetary help to a certain cutoff date before it got elected). The TD out of power has exposed the fragile nature of the progress shown by CBN.
On a side note AP politics is ruined for ever between the INC and TD.
Ramana, Wasn't CBN the chair or president of UF in early 90s? Is there any alternative to him in TDP - one rarely hears of anyone other than CBN when it comes to TDP.
Viren, TDP like all regional parties are one man bands. The bandmaster neuters all potential challengers. Real wolf pack tactics.
When I look at the policies of Y Rajashekar Reddy and contrast them to CBN I can see a difference. YSR is developing all of AP as a hedge against Telangana separation. While TDP was developing Hyderabad and specifically CBN owned areas- Hitec City etc.
On aside note do you know why Andrew Jackson, the 7th US President is the true creator of the modern two party system in the US? He created the system of poltical spoils by rewarding his supporters for their loyalty and created stakeholders for preserving the party in power. THis worked till Lincoln came to power before the Civil War.
In the Indian system the leader of the wolf pack grabs everything to fill his pockets and the new challengers come who finish of the current leader or in modern democracies they have to leave the party to create new power(PAWAR) centers.
I think YSR is realizing the need to spread the economic development all around and not on centers of excellence which are really sources to line the pockets.
They say NTR used developed a fine skill of extortion of the AP Power crisis. He ensured power to only those who paid off the TDP.
Rahul: Tender Line On The Palm
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The people want him in the thick of things, but the party is saving him for the 2007 polls
Rahul Gandhi recently sat through a two-day seminar at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, devoted to political and economic changes in Uttar Pradesh in the 1990s. After one of the sessions he was asked whether he agreed that the Congress needed to reinvent itself in UP. His response was: "Yes, the party does need to reinvent itself, but it must be done on a sustainable basis. There must be a long-term plan, not something worked out in a hurry.''
For those banking on Rahul Gandhi taking the lead, it's going to be a long wait. Ever since he contested and won the traditional family seat of Amethi in the Lok Sabha 2004, and demonstrated his ability to draw large and emotional crowds, the party has been waiting anxiously for him to launch himself on the national stage.
Indeed, across UP, during the 2004 elections, many peopleâespecially the Brahmins, the Muslims and the youngâwere beginning to look on him as the future leader, the updated version of the tried and trusted brand of the Nehru-Gandhi family.
In the year since that election, as party members clamour that he be given an important role in the party organisationâparty general secretary Ambika Soni says there is a demand from party members that he be made a general secretaryâhe has been "educating'' himself.
There have been the much-publicised visits to different parts of the country. There was the Northeast where he met political and youth leaders to acquaint himself with the problems of this trouble-prone region. In Bangalore, he learnt more about the country's IT revolution. He met tsunami victims in Tamil Nadu. There have been frequent visits to his constituency, Amethi, and the youth workshops in UP's Chitrakoot and Gorakhpur, where he has rubbed shoulders with young Congressmen.
And there have been the less-publicised parts of his "education'': Visits to nac member and former civil servant N.C. Saxena's home to learn more about the developmental process. Discussions with World Bank officials working on UP. His keen interest in the most backward castes and Dalits in UP. Rahul asking for printouts of detailed election results in UP to study the changing voting patterns there. Outside Parliament, he led a dharna of young Congress MPs to protest against the NDA's behaviour in the House. A speech on sugarcane prices which brought succour to farmers in UP.
But the current sense in the party is that the "data-hungry, techno-friendly and pro-reform'' young MP should be launched in a big way closer to the UP assembly polls, slated for 2007. <b>Says a party functionary: "We are saving him. We don't want him to peak too early.''Â </b><!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Postin in this thread as UPA might recommend dissolution in case this come strue.
From deccan.com, 24 May 2005
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Jayaâs reverse swing
By Siddhartha Reddy
Political tsunamis from a southern coastal stateâs turbulent politics brought death to four Central governments and devoured three Prime Ministers. It is a process that is best described as the Tamil Nadu Syndrome. In 1996, the Congress split into pro- and anti-Narasimha Rao groups in most states. In some, they left the party, in others, they stayed back to defeat Congress candidates. Tamil Nadu Congressmen urged the severing of AIADMK-Congress ties. Since Rao refused, the state unit formed a new party aligning with the DMK. The AIADMK lost the state government, the Congress lost its Central government and Rao ceased to be PM.
In 1997, the Congress, accusing the DMK of involvement with Rajiv Gandhiâs assassins (LTTE), put pressure on the United Front to drop DMK ministers. The UF refused. The Congress withdrew support. The UF government fell, and I.K. Gujral ceased to be PM. In 1999, Jayalalithaaâs AIADMK withdrew support from the BJP-led government which also met with the same fate, after which, but for the Kargil war, the NDA would not have been able to return to power.
In 2004, BJPâs Tamil Nadu allies (DMK, PMK, MDMK) after enjoying five years of power, aligned with the Congress. DMKâs seven-party alliance generated the biggest ever electoral tsunami, drowning the NDA and sweeping away all 40 seats. The NDA lost and Vajpayee ceased to be PM.
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian movement unleashed an anti-Brahmin propaganda and offered the liberation from casteist exploitation. Assuring self-respect, power, social emancipation and economic resurgence to non-Brahmin Hindus, Annaduraiâs DMK seized power in 1967. After his death, Karunanidhi became the chief minister. The DMK split and M.G. Ramachandran floated the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. After his death, his wife Janaki inherited the party but was unable to handle it and migrated to the US and Jayalalithaa took over.
The UPA is targeting Jayalalithaa, as did the NDA. The DMK is and has been part of both UPA and NDA. Finance minister P. Chidambaramâs aggressive campaign against Jayalalithaa is authored by Karunanidhi. She is being painted as corrupt, dictatorial, arrogant and unreliable. A disproportionate assets case has been initiated against her, with hearings at Bangalore, to ensure conviction. The DMKâs strategy is to secure her conviction by March 2006 thus disabling her from contesting and campaigning in May 2006 and to secure a win for the DMK by projecting Karunanidhi and then anointing Stalin as CM.
After losing the Lok Sabha elections of 2004, Jayalalithaa changed gears. Among other measures, she reversed harsh decisions by revoking the anti-conversion bill and withdrawing disciplinary punishment against workers. She abandoned the H-stamp ration cards, prohibited the upper-income groups from buying PDS commodities, ensured minimum wages for agricultural labour and urban construction labour, provided free text-books up to the 10th standard.
She also arrested both the Kanchi Shankaracharyas and in the process alienated the Muttâs devotees, the Hindu-activists of her state and the general Hindu population nationwide. It resulted in the BJP breaking its alliance with her.Â
The exhilarated non-Brahmins crowned Jayalalithaa the Dravidian queen, for bettering the anti-Brahmin methods of E.V. Ramaswamy Naicker, the founder of the Dravidian movement. At the national level, most Congressmen and the âThird Frontâ parties and the communists lionised Jayalalithaa as the secular queen.
In Kanchipuram and Gummidipoondi, last year, DMKâs seven-party coalition secured a 25,000- and 33,000-vote majority, though the AIADMK got the BJPâs committed vote. After that, for the May 14 byelections this year, the DMK pressurised the Election Commission to create a pro-DMK administrative environment. Central security turned the constituencies into fortresses.
Polling personnel flew in from outside Tamil Nadu. The DMK matched AIADMK in manpower, resources and campaign. Stalin and Dayanidhi Maran, aided by 12 Union ministers from Tamil Nadu, managed the byelections. The DMK lost both seats by huge margins of 17,000 and 30,000 votes. Obviously, the UPAâs performance has not impressed Tamil Nadu.
Jayalalithaa, in effect, has bowled a reverse swing: 35,000 votes in an Assembly constituency are equivalent to 250,000 votes in one Lok Sabha constituency. If this mood holds, and the same battle line-up exists, then Jayalalithaa will secure a big victory in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections and will also bag all 39 Lok Sabha seats. That will be the end of Karunanidhi, politically.
It is impossible for Karunanidhi to beat Jayalalithaa in the Dravidian game. The byelection results prove that. Now Dalit Panthers, the communists and Ramadossâ PMK might abandon the DMK to join an upbeat AIADMK. They could inspire Vaikoâs MDMK too, thus creating a Jayalalithaa-led unbeatable Dravidian-secular alliance.
Karunanidhi neednât wait till May 2006. Jayalalithaa could hold elections this winter itself. After it loses the Assembly elections, the DMK will split and Jayalalithaa will grab the entire Dravidian vote. Any delay in Karunanidhiâs strategy will make Jayalalithaa invincible. <b>So what will creative script-writer Karunanidhi do, to outsmart Jayalalithaa? </b>
Here comes Sharad Pawar who is working overtime to string together all anti-Congress forces to build new equations. The UPA has the support of 350 MPs. <b>This government collapses if 80 MPs desert it. </b>Then someone has to fabricate a non-Congress-non-BJP coalition, and secure outside support from the BJP (136) and the Shiv Sena (11) on the condition that Narendra Modi is removed from Gujarat CMâs post, prior to effecting a change at the Centre.
A CBI-harassed BJP will gleefully support the new formation, putting forth the following conditions: the withdrawal of investigation against the NDAâs former ministers, the dropping of charges against the Shankaracharyas, Presidentâs Rule in West Bengal and Assam, the detoxification of a communist-run administration, weeding-out of bogus voters and Bangladeshis.
<b>The UPA allies are unhappy with Congressâ high-handedness. </b>So Mulayam (38), Mayawati (18), DMK (16), NCP (9), PMK (6), TRS (5), MDMK (4), Ajit Singh (3), Paswan (3), Athavle (1), Mizo (1), Nagaland (1), Sikkim (1) and Bodo (1) can woo NDAâs BJD (11), Akali (8), JD(U) (7), TDP (5), NC (2), Trinamul (2), AGP (2) and Ladakh (1), <b>together can install a 290-MP-supported, new non-Congress-non-BJP government, </b>with Karunanidhi as PM. The first Tamil PM could appeal to Tamil Nadu to vote in DMK in the Assembly elections. <b>So Karunanidhi is under pressure to decide quickly. </b>
If Karunanidhi becomes PM, Pawar will be the deputy PM as also the de facto PM. As a bonus, daughter Supriya might be made Maharashtraâs first woman chief minister with outside support from Shiv Sena-BJP. <b>So Karunanidhi has much pinch-hitting to do, to survive Jayalalithaaâs reverse swing.</b>
The writer can be contacted at siddharthareddy@deccanmail.com
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
A CBI-harassed BJP will gleefully support the new formation, putting forth the following conditions: the withdrawal of investigation against the NDAâs former ministers, the dropping of charges against the Shankaracharyas, Presidentâs Rule in West Bengal and Assam, the detoxification of a communist-run administration, weeding-out of bogus voters and Bangladeshis.
Seems like a long shot. But Indian politician are very smart when it comes to power.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Jayaâs reverse swing
By Siddhartha Reddy <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There's way too many variables in this article so seriously doubt if the third front will be able to pull it off. And Karunanidhi hardly has the national exposure to pull something off at center. Maybe someone like CBN or Pawar can.
Besides, it's not in either Congress or BJP's interest to encourage an third alternative at center. Definitely not BJPs - not with the current dynamics.
I dont know what to think of this article. I am sure the author knows how far-fetched the whole idea is. Then why did he write it ?
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->PTI reports on CBN's musings.
Relations with BJP had negative impact on minority votes: TDP<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I believe this is just a drama from the current ground realities in Andhra Pradesh.
CBN and TDP are not in a position to desert BJP and go alone because BJP has substantial amount of votes there to ensure TDP's defeat. The minute BJP stands on it own in the election, congress will win the state easily.
First of all let's analyze which minorities he is talking about.
Muslims:
6% to 8% in the whole state. 60% of this is in just Hyderabad and suburbs. They can only change the fortunes in and around Hyderabad and they vote to MIM anyway. Muslim votes to TDP even in case of distancing itself from BJP will not yield any results.
Christians:
90% of the this population is convert from SC communities. This population and SC population are traditionally congress voters. They never voted to TDP since 1983(1983 was the NTR wave and everybody voted to TDP because NTR was populat actor.)
The gain from minorities for TDP for not aligning with BJP is negligible but the loss is going to be very huge. TDP will almost get blank from Hyderabad and many other Telangana areas.
The actual vote difference between TDP and congress is never more than 5% to 6%. The votes of left parties all together is dwindling from time to time. Their total votes are less than BJP's vote percentage in the state.
If TDP wants to commit suicide, then best of luck. For CBN there is no other option but he and his partymen makes some secular noise now and then just to keep some of his party leaders from minority community in good spirits.
--------------------------
TDP just needs a small swing to come back to power and YSR is doing all he can do to give this edge to TDP. YSR is not able to do anything that he promised(like free power etc.) His administration has no chance because of the loans that are taken in the last decade of TDP rule. He cannot do anything popular and people are looking for the results.
The perception in AP is TDP will come back except in Telangana if elections are held today.
Again news about the joke called third front. This is just not possible no matter what the papers may write. There are only two possibilities. One led/supported by BJP and the other led on supported by congress. There in mathematical possibility of a third front. Among the leaders and parties that are mentioned as part of third front many of them are compelled to be with either congress or BJP due to local factors.
The following parties can never be part of congress led/supported:
1) BJD
2) TDP
3) Akali Dal
3) Samata/JD
4) AGP
The following can never be part of BJP
1) RJD
2) CPM and other Left jokers.
SP(Mulayam) cannot afford to be with BJP and congress as well.
If AIADMK supports any front, DMK & the 10 TN parties cannot support the same and vice versa.
The only parties that can go either way are the small parties in NE, Deva Gowda's party in Karnataka and NCP from Maharastra.
The journos who still think of a third front chance are just nut cases.
If UPA falls there will be either NDA in power or just elections.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->If UPA falls there will be either NDA in power or just elections.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
UPA will call election in case they see another front is coming. Other than small states Congress is invisible everywhere. Chances of losing small states are very high.
Mudy, I too think after the Bihar episode the UPA will call for elections than allow another group to get power and I said that in the begining of my earlier post.
The journalist is trying to see if another group can come up. He realizes that it has to be supported by the BJP from outside. He is exploring the give and takes needed for that to happen. The prime driver for creation of such a group is DMK's compulsions after Jaya's recent victory in the bye elections in TN. If DMK does not make a move it will be finis for it.
The main give on BJP side would be Modi. On DMK(16) and NCP(9) the demand would be PM and Dy PM. What I dont understand is why would Mulayam with 38 and Mayawati with 18 accept second fiddle? Is it because DMK would lead the group formation? So need more info about the thinking behind that article "Jaya's reverse swing".
It also could be a call for INC to humor its allies in UPA.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->It also could be a call for INC to humor its allies in UPA. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Very much possible.
Now after by-election result DMK may break away from UPA, coz Jaya won election on anti-UPA card. It may start domino effect.
In UPA, Lalu is King and rest of allies ego may give some bright idea.
If Advani's taking the resignation back, it's a huge setback to both BJP and RSS. Media is going to have a field day beating up both organizations. With the party in disarray and leadership clueless, it's a perfect opportunity for Congress to bring down govt and go to polls immediately and ride back without the commie and Laloo baggage.
The Election Commission observer has submitted his report to the EC on the last elctions to Lok Sabha. He thinks the results should be countermanded. hopefully the opposition can help publicize them and let the chips fall where they may.
From Statesman, 10 June 2005
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Redâs poll terror unveiled
Elections to most of the 42 seats in last yearâs Lok Sabha poll in West Bengal should have been countermanded by the Election Commission of India. Almost the entire exercise for the 14th Lok Sabha poll in West Bengal was a âfarceâ. The ruling CPI-Mâs belligerent behaviour and the obstacles put up by key figures in the state administration came in the way of creating a level playing field for holding a free and fair poll in the state.
The appointment of a tough, Bengali-speaking IAS officer from outside West Bengal as the Chief Electoral Officer of the state may in the long run go a long way in holding free and fair elections in the state. These are some of the observations from an âexplosive finalâ report that the special election observer for West Bengal, Afzal Amanullah, had submitted to the Chief Election Commissioner, TS Krishnamurthy, in May last year. But it is yet to see the light of day. The whereabouts of the report are not known to anyone in the Election Commission. This and other reports of poll observers recount, hitherto unknown,f dramatic events which at one time last year threatened to stall the entire poll process in West Bengal.
<b>The CPI-M central leadership had mounted tremendous pressure on Mr Krishnamurthy and the two Election Commissioners BB Tandon and N Gopalaswamy not to make public not only the final report of Mr Amanullah but also the 87 other reports of his and about 200-odd poll observers specially sent to the state by the EC to oversee the Lok Sabha poll. </b>
The Marxist leadership was afraid that if these reports were made public, it would seriously compromise the partyâs public image, its credibility and claim of being the âtrue and only spokesmanâ of the democratically minded people of the state. The reports give graphic and documented accounts of booth-wise terror and various administrative and electoral malpractices indulged in mostly by the ruling CPI-M and the election staff to ensure that the Left Front bagged 35 of the 42 seats.
<b>But what made the Marxists more scared about the âexplosive final reportâ and forced Mr Krishnamurthy, Mr Tandon and Mr Gopalaswamy to keep it under âpermanent wrapsâ was Mr Amanullahâs pathbreaking recommendations for ensuring free and fair poll in West Bengal. His report and those of others say that until these recommendations are followed in letter and spirit, holding free and fair polls in the state would be âimpossibleâ. </b>
Mr Amanullah is an intrepid IAS officer of the Bihar cadre whose integrity and excellent service record are a source of envy for his service colleagues and who is currently a Joint Secretary at the Centre. He was sent as a special observer to West Bengal in March last year to oversee the proper conduct of the Lok Sabha election. Serious complaints by human rights groups and election watchdogs regarding poll-related Marxist terror and malpractices had forced the CEC to take the unprecedented step of despatching him to West Bengal.
Bihar was the only other state where also, because of similar complaints to the CEC, a special observer had been sent.
Mr Amanullahâs selection was because of his excellent track record during the 2002 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election when, despite threats from militants and jihadi groups from Pakistan, he succeeded in holding free and peaceful voting in the most volatile areas such as Kupwara by ensuring a large turnout of genuine voters at polling centres.
The measures adopted by him were foolproof. This restored the faith of the ordinary Kashmiri votersâ in the electoral process which had earlier been eroded because of rampant rigging methods resorted to by Farooq Abdullahâs National Conference.
Mr Amanullah earned the CPI-Mâs wrath when he transferred the District Superintendents of Police of Nadia and North 24-Parganas for their pronouncedly pro-CPI-M bias. In retaliation, the CPI-M Politburo member, Biman Bose, threatened to âthrow the election observers out by the scruff of their neckâ.
Stung by the humiliation, Mr Amanullah informed the CEC that it would not be possible for him to conduct the poll process. Sensing trouble, the CPI-M central leadership met the CEC and apologised. It instructed Mr Bose to tender a âwishy-washyâ apology.
<b>The âexplosive final reportâ and other reports give countless documented examples of not only rigging but also telltale accounts of how the ruling Marxists terrorise the Opposition and voters to ensure outright victory for themselves. Detailed references are given of how white shrouds and white sarees (symbol of Hindu widowhood) are sent to those local Muslim and Hindu Opposition activists and leaders who refuse to buckle under the Marxist pressure before the election. Instances are given of how state bureaucrats acting on âorders from the topâ harass the Opposition to ensure Marxist victory. </b>
<b>For example, an IPS officer, who was the Superintendent of Police of a bordering district, had earned so much notoriety for his Marxist partisanship that he had to be told that if he did not mend his ways he would be transferred from the district. </b>Piles of complaints had been received from various professional bodies and leading citizens of the district that this officer was helping the Marxists wrest the districtâs three parliamentary seats by selectively detaining Opposition activists without levelling any specific charges against them.
The officer âcried and beggedâ of the special observer not to transfer him as that would be construed as a âblack markâ in his service record and which would âruinâ his career. Pleading his helplessness, he said that he was being forced to carry out the orders of his political bosses as otherwise he would be denied swift promotion and a coveted posting.
<b>âActually, I want to get out of Bengal at the earliest. Since I am from Uttar Pradesh, I am keen to serve the central Intelligence Bureau and other Central agencies in Delhiâ was the officerâs âhonest confessionâ mentioned in one of the reports. </b>
The reports say that the Central observer felt âcheatedâ by the trickery that some senior bureaucrats resorted to for scuttling his plan to ban the use of motorbikes immediately before, during and after the elections. Reports of armed Marxist motorbike brigades spreading panic among voters in rural areas were pouring in from poll observers.
But the wording of the Press note, issued on behalf of the state election office on the use of motorbikes, was such that his original plan for ban got defeated.
The reports say that if elections in the state have to be free and fair, one of the conditions is that the state chief electoral officer must be from outside the state. And he should either be a Bengali or Bengali-knowing with an unblemished service record. This is because many of the recent CEOs, who all belong to the Bengal cadre of the IAS, have been unable to withstand the pulls and pressures brought to bear on them by their ministers and the ruling party bigwigs.
<b>To curry favour with the ruling party, some of them even refused to redress the serious and genuine complaints of voters and also of the Opposition. Later, these officers were given prized postings as Principal Secretary to the commerce and industry department or made head of Central government undertakings with lot of scope for foreign travel. The unpublished reports also want âproper and thorough scrutinyâ of the âheavily paddedâ electoral rolls which are âheavily weighedâ in the CPI-M and Left Frontâs favour.</b>
They also recommend that all the polling and security personnel needed for conducting the poll should be brought from outside the state as was done in the case of Kashmir.
Justifying the point, the reports say that âall the state government employeesâ unions and officersâ associations are so highly politicised that it is absurd to expect their members to stay neutral during elections. And the fact of the matter is that they donâtâ. The reports quote âclarion callsâ given by the leaders of CPI-M-controlled unions of policemen and even Home Guards before the election urging their members to âensure our party and Frontâs victory at any costâ. âHow can such elections be free and fair,â asks one report.
The reports say that because of the âpeculiar and disturbing situationâ obtaining in West Bengal, the poll process should start a year ahead of the scheduled poll date. Central security forces and those brought from other states should be deployed in sensitive areas two to three months ahead of election so that voters who are terrorised gain the confidence to vote freely. âThese forces should not be withdrawn from the state at least three months after the elections so that no harm comes to those who have not voted for the Marxists and their allies.â
The reports have also said that âvoting should not be allowed to start until Central forces have been deployed in all boothsâ. âThis is also a must for free and fair electionâ. The electronic voting machines, according to the reports, are not suited to Bengal as they help opponents to find out with pin-point accuracy which voter has voted for whom. âThe old method of mixing ballot papers before counting is ideal for Bengal and should be reconsidered for restorationâ.
(The author Manash Ghosh is the Editor, Dainik Statesman.)
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Another speculation. Now based on percieved appeal of LKA to the Hindu middle.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress might snap into poll mode
Solitics: By Siddhartha Reddy
There is nothing static about politics. Politicians must evolve with the changing times. The two Germanys united to become one nation. India and Pakistan too could unite into one brotherhood. Advani resigned on the Jinnah issue and subsequently withdrew his resignation.
But he has not retracted from what he had said about Jinnah, so his party karyakartas are confused. They find it difficult to have as president a âJinnah admirerâ in a party that has hate-Jinnah as part of its ideology. They expect the BJP and Advani to express a singular viewpoint as otherwise the Bihar election campaign will fail. But Advani will be a national secular icon if he doesnât perform another somersault and goes the communal way.
The venom poured on him by the Sangh Parivar has made people sympathetic towards him. Itâs impossible to distinguish between the utterances made by the RSS and the Congress. They have displayed a rare unanimity of views when dealing with the partition blame-game.
The RSS and the VHP battled Advani, hounding him as if he were an enemy. While the BJP undid itself, political wisdom dictated that the Congress maintained a dignified silence. But the Congress seemed to be in a tearing hurry to condemn Jinnah and rubbish Advani in the process. The Communists too expressed visible anger.
In the process, the Communists and the Congress are voicing the RSSâ thoughts. Was Jinnah single-handedly responsible for partition? Can Nehru and Patelâs role in betraying the Mahatmaâs dream of undivided India ever be forgiven? Congress strategists are planning to generate a pro-Congress Hindu wave by wooing those Hindus who are angry with the BJP.
So the party is actually aiming at the Hindu vote by painting Jinnah as a communal hawk. In 1971, after the Bangladesh war, riding on a wave of patriotism, Indira Gandhi secured a landslide victory. In 1984, Rajiv Gandhi secured 414 MPs, making use of Hindu anger against Sikh extremists. Is Congress preparing the ground for yet another huge Hindu groundswell capitalising on BJPâs Jinnah syndrome?
But conservative Congress strategists advice against a snap poll as there is no reason to go for a mid-term poll. When 350 MPs support the UPA, thereâs no ground for burdening the exchequer with another election. However, if polls are held according to schedule, issues like high fuel price, a spiralling inflation, an over-burdened middle class will act against the UPAâs return to power.
But if the Congress can ride the Hindu wave, economy will no longer be the decisive factor. Also, this is the only way to get rid of Mulayam-Mayawatiâs casteist stranglehold on Uttar Pradesh. If elections are held as per schedule, both the BJP and the Congress will lose 50 MPs each.
The Congress will be wiped out from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Assam, Karnataka and UP. The Congress does not have the right kind of leadership in these states. And matters of corruption, anti-Congress consolidation and local polarisation are already marginalising the party.
Congress strategists are assuming that the party can gain about 100 seats from a BJP in disarray, in case there is a snap election. The BJP will lose 16 seats to the JD(S) and Bangarappa in Karnataka. In UP, it will lose seven seats to the SP and BSP, in Bihar to the CPI in the Bhoomihar constituencies and to the RJD. The BJP-RSS tussle is a liability for the NDA allies. So Congress expects that barring the JD(U) seats going to the RJD, other NDA seats will come to the Congress.
Younger strategists expect that both classes of Hindus will vote for the Congress: the hot-headed ones will either go with the Congress or abstain from voting to defeat Advaniâs BJP. And those who prefer harmony and stability will vote for the Congress anyway. Hence, winter is the ideal time for a snap poll.
But if the BJP gets time, it will be ready and the Congress can plummet to a measly figure. As, given time, an anti-Congress consolidation will intensify. As for the BJP, if Advani gets his act together and frees the party from RSS control, then the latter could withdraw all its loyalists from the BJP. It is Advani who controls the party symbol and MPs and MLAs defecting to the RSS, will lose BJP membership.
Then Advani could transform the BJP into a new centrist force, symbolising Mahatmaâs undivided Congress and JPâs united Janata Party. Nationwide, many will pour into Advaniâs BJP. Some NDA-Congress allies might form a new coalition under Advani. A new BJP can devour the Congress. So if Advani, Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh continue to rule the roost and ignore the RSS, it will be the Congress that will be losing the vote.
But if Advani gives up the party presidentâs post at the Chennai national executive meet on July 15, he might install a senior leader who will unite the factions and coordinate with the RSS and VHP. If the new president can weed out the power-brokers, and launch an all-pleasing agenda, then this united BJP can defeat the Congress.
The other scenario is Advani revamps the party and inducts a new capable team and then embarks on a Hindu agenda seeking forgiveness from his traditional supporters for his temporary secular âlapse.â This will help Mulayam and others to initiate a new secular front to battle the BJP. So in the case of a polarisation, the Congress will be marginalised.
If instead the RSS cleanses the BJP of Advani and blesses a Hindu hothead leadership, then an aggressive campaign can fetch the party 200 MPs. So the Congress tally will also fall. But the dilution of Advaniâs anti-Muslim profile might motivate some Congress allies to think about BJP. The NDA has 180 MPs. It requires 92 to reach 272.
Given time, Advani can get the required tally. So Congress strategists are advising a snap election, before BJP recovers from its Jinnah syndrome and the UPA loses its majority.
The writer can be contacted at
siddharthareddy@ deccanmail.com
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Dont know his sagacity but he is clued inot the INC circles and reflcets the thinking there. I had said earlier that LKA was trying to capture the middle with his TSP visit and statements.
At this moment Congress popularity is low. They may not even cross 100 seats. I doubt they will take risk at this juncture, but NDA did blunder by calling election before time.
By now Congress pocket is full for next 2 elections.
At this moment Congress popularity is low. They may not even cross 100 seats. I doubt they will take risk at this juncture, but NDA did blunder by calling election before time.
By now Congress pocket is full for next 2 elections.
<b>Be ready for Lok Sabha polls: Advani</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Shillong, July 4: BJP president L.K. Advani on Monday said the next Lok Sabha elections âmay come before much earlier than expectedâ.
âThe next Lok Sabha elections may come much earlier than expected. Nowadays, no one knows when elections will come,â Advani said.
The Congress-led UPA government, he said, was not like the one headed by Atal Behari Vajpayee which lasted for six years âcreating confidence in the peopleâs mind, particularly by making India a nuclear power.â
The BJP president was to pay respect to former Meghalaya Home Minister T.H. Rangad on his second death anniversary............
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