2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

08-31-2007, 11:06 PM

Let us ignore that site for now. However, we should discuss the elections and results here and generate some interest to the forum members. <!--emo& Smile

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Here is a blog that was written with details. let us discuss this:

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2007...still-counting/

So we go state by stateâ¦â¦.

Andhra - In 2004 saw a remarkable performance by the Congress best ever in the last 3 elections and the worst ever drubbing for the TDP. 2004 was also a watershed on account of the emergence of the TRS in the Telangana region bagging 5 seats and the BJP drawing a blank. The TRS has since lost steam, credibility and is a divided house. The Congress is bound to incur losses with its backtracking on Telangana, infighting between YSR and PJR, Communist agitations on land issues. However the TDP might not be an automatic beneficiary with Naidu struggling to define himself after the 2004 debacle. Andhra is looking to be a battleground state with about 20 seats to the TDP, 15 to the Congress and the remaining 7 splitting between the Communists, BJP, TRS and MIM. It would suit both the Congress and the BJP to prevent a TDP/CPI-CPM pre-poll tie up.
Arunachal - Flip flop politics in this frontier state have made it a winner takes all state. Congress will likely pick the 2.
Assam - Congress has done consistently well last 3 elections in Assam. The recent assembly elections saw the congress scrape through despite a highly fragmented electorate. Unless the AGP and BJP tie up we will likely see vote fragmentation negate any anti-incumbency the congress is bound to suffer from. If AGP goes the UNPA way we will likely see Congress pick up between 7 and 10 and the remaining splitting between the AGP, BJP, AUDF and others.
Bihar - In 1999 the NDA performance peaked in Bihar while 2004 saw a fortune reversal. Lalu Yadavâs RJD is set for significant losses having suffered incumbency and the loss of power in the assembly. Expect about 25 for the NDA and 15 for the RJD-Congress combine assuming the JD-U sticks with the BJP. Muslim entitlement is a potential wedge issue that the RJD-Congress will unabashedly use to pit the BJP against the JD-U.
Chattisgarh - Went to polls for the first time in 2004 since its formation. The BJP made a clean sweep last time. Chattisgarh could end up a battleground state this time around with a 6 to 4 split between the Congress and the BJP.
Goa - Split equally between the Congress and BJP with 1 each will likely maintain status quo.
Gujarat - The BJP registered peak performance in 1998 and 1999. Last time around incumbency saw Gujarat ending up a battleground state with the BJP and congress splitting the state. If Modi romps home in the assembly election one could very well see the BJP regain ground here with about 19 seats and the Congress picking 7.
Haryana - Split opposition saw the Congress sweep Haryana completely in stark contrast to 1999 when the BJP lok dal combine swept the state. If Chautala persists with his UNPA dalliance very likely Haryana will end up a battleground state with the Congress, Lok Dal and the BJP splitting honors perhaps 4, 4 and 2.
Himachal Pradesh - Clean sweep for the Congress in 2004 will likely reverse this time in favor of the BJP 3 to 1.
J&K - Battleground state could see a 3 way split between the Congress, NC and PDP perhaps 2 each
Jharkhand - Was a clean sweep for the UPA last time should reverse this time in favor of the NDA 10 to 4
Karnataka - 2004 was peak performance for the BJP but poor leadership at the state level bungled the goodwill it receieved over the last 3 years. Congress should expect to do well. The BJP may recover some lost ground if the JD-S reneges on its promise to transfer power to the BJP. Expect JD-S to be the biggest loser in Karnataka with the Congress picking around 17, the BJP around 8 and the JD-S around 3. The BJP could lose even further ground if it doesnt fix the state leadership in time. If the BJP-JD(S) combine sticks together the race in Karnataka could tighten.
Kerala - Peak performance by the LDF in 2004 with the congress drawing a blank. This time around Kerala could end up a battleground state with LDF and UDF splitting the honors equally with around 8 each.
Maharashtra in 2004 split evenly between the BJP-SS combine and the Congress-NCP combine. The rocky state of affairs between the BJP-SS could dent the NDAâs prospects but the Sreekrishna Commission report could end up bringing the estranged cousins together. In the most optimistic scenario for the NDA Maharashtra splits evenly with 25 to UPA and 23 to NDA. In the most pessimistic scenario the UPA takes 35 and the NDA 13.
Madhya Pradesh - Peak performance by the BJP in 2004 with Uma Bharathi at the helm. This time around the BJP will have to brace itself for losses. But then the BJP has always done well in Lok Sabha polls in M.P. for the last 3 elections even though at the state level it was a Digvijay lead Congress in power bucking anti-incumbency. It could be a 16 to 10 split between the BJP and the Congress and a couple of pickings for Uma Bharathi.
Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Sikkim - Together account for 9 seats expect 3 to Congress, 2 to CPM and 4 to others who may side with NDA or UPA depending on who gets within striking distance of the half way mark.
Orissa - The BJP-BJD combine has consistently swept Orissa for the last 3 elections. While incumbency and fraying ties between the BJP-BJD combine could hurt the NDAâs prospects but the state leadership from the Congress has not really capitalized on this. Orissa will likely end up a battleground state with the NDA and the Congress splitting 11 to 10.
Punjab, Chandigarh - The NDA should expect to keep its tally at around 10 and 4 to the congress.
Rajasthan - BJP swept Rajasthan in 2004 improving on its 1999 performance. The Gujjar fracas should hurt the BJP this time around perhaps a 15 to 10 split between the BJP and the Congress.
Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry - It was a clean sweep for the DMK lead DPA with Jayalalithaâs AIADMK drawing a blank in 2004. The MDMK with 4 has already split and the PMK with 5 has been making noises. Karunanidhi seems to have done his homework pursuing a combination of entitlement and minorytism to cut his losses. The strife within the family and the parting of the ways with the Marans will have some negative effect. All in all Tamil Nadu will likely end up a battleground state with the DPA and the AIADMK taking about 20 each.
Uttarakhand - The BJP will likely maintain its tally of 3 with the Congress and others picking the remaining 2.
West Bengal - The peak performance by the opposition in Bengal was in 1999 winning 13 seats across the Congress, Mamata Bannerjeeâs Trinamul and the BJP. Assuming Mamata parts ways with the NDA and the Congress and the Trinamul repeat this performance about 8 to TC and 5 to Congress with 29 to the LDF.
Delhi - Will likely go the BJP way with maybe a 5 to 2 split with the Congress.
Andaman, Dadra Nagar Haveli, Daman Diu, Lakshadweep - Together account for 4 seats which could all go UPA

So here is what the battleground looks like based on the above
UPA - 193 (assuming BJP-SS split) or 181
NDA - 161 (assuming BJP-SS stay together) or 151
UNPA (TDP, AGP, INLD, AIADMK) - 41
Left parties - 41
Others (JD-S, NC, PDP, North eastern parties, SDF, Trinamul ) - 19

This leaves us with the heartland battleground in Uttar Pradesh making all the difference.
Uttar Pradesh - The BJP hit rock bottom in 2004 with merely 10 seats. If 2004 was a precursor to the 2007 drubbing in the assembly the BJP can only go up from here in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress with will likely maintain its tally perhaps marginally improving. The big question is how many will Mulayam Singh Yadavâs SP lose to Mayawatiâs BSP. Offstumped is estimating about 15 each for BJP and SP , Congress and others about 10 and Mayawati about 40.

So what should the win strategy for the Congress be ?It has to fight incumbency in Andhra, make sure Karunanidhi holds his ground in TN, hope the BJP-SS combine falls apart in Maharashtra and of course expect to do very well in Karnataka while denting the NDA in MP, Rajasthan and Orissa. This still doesnt get it over the hump. For the Congress to be assured of safe tally where it does not have to depend on the Left or allow the UNPA to make a bid - has to not just dent the BJP in its strongholds but sweep them while hoping Mayawati decimates Mulayam and the BJP in UP to the teens.

What about a win strategy for the BJP ?It has to fight incumbency in its strongholds of Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan and retain its tallies while doing very well in Bihar, get on a recovery path in Uttar Pradesh while sweeping the smaller Northern states. That still does not get it over the hump. For the BJP to be assured of a safe tally where it is within striking distance to wean away UNPA constituents into supporting it - has to decimate the Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra while making it a 2 way fight in Uttar Pradesh with Mayawati, edging out Mulayam from contention.

09-01-2007, 11:25 AM

Poll signal in Muslim sopsQUOTEthe government presented in Parliament a cushion to a possible Muslim backlash against the UPA being in the company of the United States.

The governmentâs detailed guidelines on the report of the Sachar panel that had gone into the state of the minority communities in India cover a host of issues:Â adequate representation to Muslims in government jobs, institution of a committee to ensure proper representation to the community in legislatures and other sectors.

The guidelines, when read in conjunction with the six per cent hike in DA, Aam Aadmi Bima Yojana for the 1.5 crore landless rural households and appointments to gubernatorial vacancies, made it obvious that the governmentâs actions were prompted by the possibility of early Lok Sabha elections. The first impact of this will be felt in poll-bound and polarised Gujarat.

Having opposed the Sachar panel from its very inception, the BJP was quick to dub the governmentâs move as another example of its policy to appease the Muslims. Interestingly, the governmentâs action-taken report on Sacharâs recommendations were cleared by the Cabinet way back in May.

09-02-2007, 09:10 PM

Elections in mind, BJP hunts for new allies QUOTENew Delhi, Sep 2 (IANS) Spurred by the Congress-Left tiff on the India-US nuclear deal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is looking for new allies as it prepares for what it believes will be a snap general election.

BJP leaders admit that the party's ties with its 2004 allies are not in the best of health. And it will be near impossible to think of taking power without valuable allies who can add to the BJP's vote-catching strength.

The BJP has set up a five-member panel consisting of Murli Manohar Joshi, M. Venkaiah Naidu, Arun Jaitely, Sushma Swaraj and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi to look around for allies for the next Lok Sabha elections.

Although the next parliamentary contest is due only in 2009, there is intense speculation that it might be held earlier, perhaps in 2008, because of the uncertainty caused by the Left-Congress clash over the India-US nuclear accord.

Asked about the visible differences with allies like the Shiv Sena and the Trinamul Congress, Naqvi told IANS: 'Yes, it is a setback that even existing allies like Trinamul and Shiv Sena have distanced themselves from the BJP.'

But he claimed in the same breath that BJP president Rajnath Singh had spoken to Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray and 'today they are back with us'.

He refused to indicate which new parties the BJP was trying to woo to its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but made it clear that it did not rule out an alliance with any of its past partners.

'Today the political scene is changing fast. Now secularism-or-communalism is no longer an issue. Parties like the DMK, PMK or Lok Dal who till yesterday were with the NDA are now with the UPA (the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance ).'

The BJP's three major allies today are the Akali Dal, the Janata Dal-United and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). The Shiv Sena remains an ally but the once cosy relations are now rocky - caused by its refusal to back BJP presidential candidate Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.

And any parting of ways by the Shiv Sena is bound to give the BJP sleepless nights in a major state like Maharashtra. The BJP would also be happy to sail with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, theTelugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and, if possible, the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The four states account for 209 of the Lok Sabha's 545 seats.

The BJP has also finalised its panel of candidates in nearly half the states in the country.

The BJP leadership met Friday evening here and asked its state units to gear up for early parliamentary polls.

Arun Jaitley told the media later: 'The BJP is now in election mode and will be preparing for early elections, both politically and organisationally.'

Naqvi had told IANS earlier too that the party's 'organisational' preparations for elections are on.

'Though a formal announcement of candidates will be made only at the appointed time after the poll schedule is announced by the Election Commission, each state unit has been asked to finalise a panel of candidates soon,' he said.

The BJP is this time paying special attention to the choice of candidates for the Lok Sabha.

'There was a time about 10 or 15 years ago when the candidate's standing mattered only 10 percent whereas his success depended 90 percent on his party's image and ideology. That situation has undergone a very big change,' a party leader explained.

'Now 50 percent success can be credited to the image and standing of a candidate and only 50 percent to the party.'

And despite dissidence in the Gujarat BJP, the national leadership is solidly standing behind Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

Said Naqvi: 'Modi is a very tall leader and his acceptability among the common people is very high. He has done tremendous development work in the last five years.'

Asked why then there was so much anger in the BJP against him, he said: 'Today no party can claim to be free from dissidence. In a democracy dissidence is natural because no leader can meet the aspirations of all party members. But Modi is such a tall leader that neither the Congress nor any other leader can match his popularity.

09-04-2007, 12:35 AM

Left can't set the agenda - Arun Nehru
QUOTEWe accuse the police and the security forces for intelligence failure, but the real blame should go to lack of effective decision-making at the political level. I have got tired of writing this over the past few years, and I think the Congress and the Left will see the backlash of this in the Gujarat Assembly election scheduled to take place within the next few months, and in the revival of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

QUOTEWe are in an election mode, and my thinking is that election in the immediate future cannot be avoided. We have an interesting situation: While within the UPA, the Congress stands to gain, its allies (barring the NCP) stand to lose seats. The RJD, the JMM and the DMK will all lose in numbers. The situation is just the reverse for the NDA, as the BJP will lose to the Congress because of anti-incumbency trends, but its allies will all gain or hold on to their numbers, particularly the JD(U), the Shiv Sena and the BJD. The Left will drop very sharply in West Bengal and Kerala.

The NDA lost the last election in 2004 as both the TDP and the ADMK were wiped out from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively. And now both parties are in a comeback mode. But they are now in the 'Third Front' and not the NDA.

Things can get very complicated for the Congress in the next few months if the party is seen as being 'soft' on terror and security issues. The party gains will come from the BJP, but if security continues to dominate the agenda, and the majority community reacts, then there can be shifts in election trends. Numbers will determine alliances, and most of those aligned with the Congress, the 'Third Front' and the BJP can travel in any direction as they have done in the past. Of these three main formations, the Congress has the advantage, but in politics nothing can be taken for granted.

We may have avoided an immediate general election, but can the Congress allow the situation to fester? And will the Left stop its constant opposition to reform issues, besides the nuclear deal and closer cooperation with the US? The confusion in governance will do little to improve the situation and trends which persist today will harden against the UPA, if, as pointed out earlier, it is found soft on security issues.

One generally witnesses the game of musical chairs in a coalition, wherein numbers determine power arrangements. As things stand, the Congress may have missed its window of opportunity. Elections are never welcome, as there is uncertainty attached with the results, and no one, including business and media, is in favour of mid-term poll. But taking into account all these factors, one cannot have a system where the Left or anyone else with five per cent of the popular vote and zero political accountability can dictate the political agenda for the country

09-05-2007, 02:44 AM

QUOTEBJP to knock CEC's door on Chawla removal 
Pioneer.com
Rajeev Ranjan Roy | New Delhi
Amid the increasing possibility of a snap poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party is close to filing a fresh petition to the Chief Election Commissioner against the continuation of Navin Chawla in the Election Commission.

A large number of MPs from the BJP and other constituents of the NDA have signed the petition. "A substantive number of NDA members have signed the petition. It would be submitted to the CEC for action any day now. Chawla has no moral right to hold the coveted post. The NDA would request CEC to act fast against Chawla," BJP sources said.

The BJP had decided to move a fresh petition against Chawla after CEC N Gopalaswami told the Supreme Court on August 7 that he was empowered to initiate action against fellow Commissioners. His observation prompted the BJP to withdraw its petitions from the apex court, seeking the dismissal of Chawla.

Senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh had filed the petition in the apex court against Chawla after the Centre refused to proceed on the NDA's plea filed before the then President APJ Abdul Kalam. Kalam had referred the case to the UPA Government, which felt there was no ground to remove Chawla.

BJP sources said the petition would have been submitted much earlier had there not been some 'unforeseen political developments' emanating from the much-hyped India-US nuclear deal.

The NDA's petition against Chawla would open a Pandora's box for the Centre, as the CEC's stand is at odds with that of the UPA Government. Contesting Gopalaswami's stand, Additional Solicitor General Gopal Subramaniam had told the Supreme Court bench comprising Justice Ashok Bhan and Justice VS Sirpurkar that "it is the executive Government alone which is empowered to initiate proceedings against the Election Commissioner."

"It is left open to the CEC to proceed in accordance with the law on the representation made against the Election Commissioner. We cannot stop anyone from approaching the CEC. How can we prevent petitioners who make representation against an EC from approaching the CEC?" The apex court bench had observed while hearing the petition.

When contacted, BJP Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha Vijay Kumar Malhotra confirmed the party was going to shortly petition the CEC, seeking Chawla's removal from the EC. "The fresh petition has been signed by both the BJP and other NDA members," Malhotra said.

Chawla has been the target of the BJP ever since he was appointed to the Election Commission, given his proximity to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and a slew of other charges against him.

During the much publicised compact disc (CD) controversy in the midst of UP election, the BJP leaders had sought Chawla's exclusion from the panel hearing the petitions, which sought the BJP's de-recognition for allegedly fomenting communalism.

The BJP implicitly supported the CEC position when the SC bench declared that the CEC would be free to adjudicate a petition against fellow Election Commissioners as per provisions of the law.

The BJP had even petitioned former President APJ Abdul Kalam, citing a number of charges against Chawla on which the party had questioned the impartiality of Chawla as an EC. As many as 205 NDA MPs had signed the petition.

09-06-2007, 05:17 AM

QUOTEMidterm Polls in the air : Sonia-Karat begins licking Muslims & Christian shoesÂ link
9/5/2007 5:22:47 AMÂ HK
NEW DELHI: Expecting of a mid-term elections sooner rather than later, the UPA government led by Sonia-Karat is working hard day and night to get reservation benefits for Muslims and Christians in the country. There is also plan to bring a sub-quota for Muslims within the existing 27 per cent OBC quota and to include Christian and Muslim Dalits in the Scheduled Castes List.

Sources form Congress camp said the government is planning to issue an Executive Order immediately to provide sub-quota for Muslims brothers in the country.

UPA government is also working out ways to include Muslim and Christian Dalits in the SC List â a matter which is at present in the Supreme Court. The Constitution (Scheduled Castes) Order 1950 originally restricted the SC list to Hindus but was later opened to Sikhs and Buddhists; it still excludes Muslims and Christians from its purview.

Earlier the UPA announced a string of measures for minority welfare in Parliament in the wake of the Justice Rajendra Sachar committeeâs recommendations.

09-06-2007, 07:04 AM

UNPA fails to make impact

Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi

The newly floated alliance of eight regional parties, the UNPA, has missed the bus in establishing their separate identity either inside or outside Parliament.

The lack of leadership and the absence of a spokesman for the alliance have failed them in even being noticed in or outside the apex legislative bodies at the Centre.

Though the UNPA has total 82 members in both Houses of Parliament and sizeable impact in eight major States of the country, they could take no initiative that could make their presence felt in political terms.

While the Monsoon Session of Parliament is on for almost a month, there has been no interaction with the media on important issue like the India-US nuclear agreement. Though the UNPA leaders have been keen to oblige the TV crew by offering them sound bytes whereas even smaller Left parties have holding structured media briefing in Parliament.

On the nuclear deal protest, in both the Houses, the UNPA strongly sided with the NDA in demanding a Joint Parliamentary Committee to go into the implication of the Hyde Act on India's nuclear sovereignty.

After the UPA decided to set up the mechanism to discuss the nuclear deal with the Left parties, the UNPA members waited for the BJP to come up with the JPC demand before they drew their line.

Even in Rajya Sabha on Thursday, the UNPA allowed the BJP to take the centrestage in stalling the House over demand for setting up the JPC. The UNPA members remained on their seats while the BJP occupied the Well.

Sources in the UNPA told The Pioneer that while the AIADMK has always been quick to join a protest made by the BJP, other constituents like Telugu Desham Party (TDP) or the Samajwadi Party have tried their best to show themselves away from them.

They said that the coordination on important issue is difficult for the UNPA, because they have to take signal from their respective leaders sitting either in Hyderabad, Chennai, Lucknow, Guwahati or Chandigarh.

To add to the confusion, no third front leader is available in their Parliamentary offices for comment, and if one could catch them anyhow, their measured reply is, "I have to contact our leader, we don't know what is the line."

The UNPA could not even implement their decision to raise the banner of protest in all major State capitals against the nuclear deal, even when the left has grabbed the opportunity by organising jaththas against the joint naval exercise with the USA, Australia and Japan.

On Thursday, in absence of any Third Front political programme, the TDP members participated in a dharna organised by the CPI at Jantar Mantar, but other members of the alliance just kept away.

"There is a seeming crack in the UNPA, as one part of it wants close relation with the NDA while the other wants to be in the right side of the Left parties. If the situation persisted, they will loose their identity as a separate alliance," an observer said.

09-06-2007, 08:53 PM

UNPA is a thing that is only on paper. I will bet the following. If BJP crosses 175 in the next election, AIADMK, Chautala and AGP will be part of NDA. TDP will be in thinking state based on the local majorities whether to join NDA(at least outside support) or to hobnob with communists.

What is remaining? SP. We need to see these folks if some of them does not join BJP.
It is all in the hands of BJP regarding how they will play the game.

09-07-2007, 12:42 AM

We should watch for "Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram" trend in next two months, it will give us fair idea who had better chance to win, because "ARGR" politician understands public nerve well and they switch sides accordingly.
In Gujarat COngress MLAs are joining BJP or supporting Modi, so trend is in favor of Modi. Kaurav sena is trying hard to work against Modi but I think they will fail. Raj, will stay with BJP.
Currently, Uma Bharati is still in shock after Govindacharya sickness, she is not in media at all, lets see how much harm she can do to BJP in MP. MP economy had done well, but it is no guarantee for votes, as public go against progress e.g. West Bengal and AP.

Revival of Chautala may take much longer, his kids corruption journey are still in everyone mind. Current one is no better, so it may be tough call, liquor distribution may do wonder.

09-07-2007, 08:19 AM

<!--emo&

kull--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/aaskull.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='aaskull.gif' /> Mamata gets ready for polls
23 Aug 2007, 0253 hrs IST,TNN
NEW DELHI: With the possibility of early elections looming large, Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Banerjee seems to be playing her cards carefully, keeping equal distance from Congress and NDA.

If the UPA-Left ties break and snap polls are held soon, Mamata is ready to dump the NDA and join the Congress-led alliance to fight the CPM in West Bengal, it is believed.

Expecting to benefit from the popular support she got during her anti-Left campaign against West Bengal's Left Front government in protest against the land acquisition in Singur and Nandigram, the Trinamul chief, with just a single Lok Sabha seat (that of her own), expects to improve her party's tally if polls are held early.

Banerjee, still officially part of the Opposition NDA combine, arrived here on Sunday night but failed to show up at the NDA meeting on Monday morning. Her party MP in Rajya Sabha, Dinesh Trivedi, also did not turn up for the NDA meeting saying "they were not aware of Mondayâs meeting."

Interestingly, Banerjee, also opposing the nuclear deal, essentially keeping her Muslim votebank in mind, sent her party colleague Trivedi to BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley wanting her name to be included as among the first speakers on a no-confidence motion against the government on the deal, if the Opposition planned to bring such a motion at all.

The move was seen as an attempt by her friends in Congress to find out whether Opposition was contemplating a no-confidence motion.

With barely any BJP presence in Bengal, Banerjee's target is fighting the ruling CPM-led Left Front in the state. She has also kept her channels open with Congress. While Banerjee found excuses to miss Monday's NDA meeting, her long chat with parliamentary affairs minister P R Dasmunsi, Congress leader from Bengal, in Parliamentâs Central Hall on Monday, was seen as a move to build bridges with Congress.

09-08-2007, 09:13 PM

QUOTEOpinion poll predicts UPA close to majorityÂ 
link
New Delhi, Sept 08: The UPA will move very close to majority on its own while New Delhi, Sept 08: Left parties will suffer marginal losses and NDA will put up a poor show compared to its performance in 2004 if pre-term Lok Sabha elections are to be held, says an opinion poll conducted by a private news channel.

The poll, conducted across 23 states with a sample size of 18,000 voters, projects the ruling alliance winning on 267 seat as against the 222 seats it secured in the 2004 elections. The majority mark is 272. 

The Left parties, which had secured 55 seats in the previous elections, will see a decline in their tally to 43, while NDA will have to be content with 133 seats as against 189 in the last poll.

The survey said the projected UPA tally of 267 was a decline from the 300 seats they had predicted for the ruling alliance in an opinion poll conducted in January this year.

The NDA will improve its performance from the 115 seats predicted for it in January to 133 in the event of snap polls, they said. 

According to the poll, BSP will win 35 seats as against the 18 it has in the present House.

While NDA allies were found to be holding firm in the states they currently rule (Orissa, Bihar and Punjab), BJP could be slipping significantly in the states where it was in power, the opinion poll said.

The findings suggest that as against the 40 seats the BJP`s allies hold in the Lok Sabha, they are likely to win 43 if elections were held now. 

In Gujarat, Chief Minister Narendra Modi still appeared to be on a firm wicket with 56 per cent of the state`s respondents preferring him to Congress 


Looks like UPA ship will sink.

09-08-2007, 09:35 PM

UPA ahead in mock poll but it's no honeymoonQUOTEAs the country speculated on the possibility and the outcome of a mid-term poll, The Indian Express with CNN-IBN and CNBC-TV18 commissioned the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to carry out a mock mid-term poll in the 18 big states across the country. The 18,750 people interviewed for this poll were a miniature India: 73 per cent rural, 45 per cent women, 11 per cent Muslims and 18 per cent dalits. This mock poll brings good news and bad news for the government.

The bad news is that the extended honeymoon that this Government has enjoyed with the electorate seems to be finally coming to an end. No, it is not the Indo-US deal that has exhausted the patience of the aam admi. The voters are either unaware and benignly indifferent or mildly supportive of this deal. If the aam admi is beginning to be unhappy about one thing, it is the economy. He calls it by various names: price rise or unemployment or deteriorating conditions of the farmers.

The Government is seen to be benefiting only the rich, just as its predecessor was. Add to it the strong popular anxieties on corruption and terrorism, and you know why the people are less enthusiastic about endorsing the UPA Government.

This sample is done by semi govt agency.
Why they have started taking separate caste based sample?
Objective may be to see how Muslims are reacting with appeasement policy.

Check detail charts link

09-08-2007, 09:41 PM

ANTI-INCUMBENCY HAS JUST ABOUT STARTED for UPA

Seats 2004 Jan., 2006 Aug., 2006 Jan., 2007 Sept, 2007
UPA 36.5 42.3 44.4 43.2 39.2
NDA 35.9 32.3 30.8 28.1 29.0 
Left 8.0 6.7 6.8 5.9 6.7 
BSP 5.3 4.1 4.6 5.2 6.0

Any terrorist attack in central India will derail UPA.

ramana · 09-09-2007, 05:25 AM

Deccan Chronicle, 9 Sept., 2007

QUOTELook East for the Left
Byline M.J. Akbar

One of the oldest laws of politics is back at work: when a government is not in control of events, events take control of a government. Delhi, obsessed with itself, believes that events only take place in Delhi. Government is in a tight geographical ring; voters live outside this pseudo-magical circle.

If you want to understand what the Left is doing, you have to hop across from Delhi to Kolkata. The Marxist machinery has been cranked back into gear. You can hear the occasional squeal of age, of course. And the design is not pretty. But it still works. This week saw the surest sign that the Marxists are getting ready for a general election. I donï¿½t mean the posters and the processions, evocative as they are. The CPI(M) brought out its genuine heavyweight and put him into political play. When Jyoti Basu speaks Bengal listens. It would not be inaccurate to suggest that Mr Basuï¿½s influence extends over much larger space than the Marxist vote bank or the Bengali world: the Indian poor know he is on their side even if they do not have his partyï¿½s candidate in their constituency.

Mr Basu made two statements, connected by an unseen cord. He remarked that "anything" could happen if the Manmohan Singh government went ahead with the 123 Agreement. It does not require a philologist or a scientist to decipher the meaning of "anything". His second public statement was in response to Mamata Banerjeeï¿½s rather facile explanation that she was in the previous BJP-led alliance only because of her personal respect and admiration of former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. Mr Basu thought that he had never heard, in his 67 years of public life, anything more ridiculous. Mr Basu rarely makes a point unless he has a point to make. If that is the best reason that Mamata Banerjee is going to offer for being an ally of the BJP, it is not going to wash. She would have been far more credible if she had been a little more honest. She could have argued that defeating the Left was the most important part of her political agenda, and she chose to align with the BJP precisely because she thought this alliance could take on the Left. After all, if she thought the Congress was good enough, she would never have left the Congress, would she? But some politicians continue to believe that the simple truth is injurious to their health. They must be firmly convinced that the voter is a fool.

A primary reason for the split between the Congress and the Left is the secret understanding between the Congress and Mamata Banerjeeï¿½s party that they would contest the next elections in harmony even if they could not manage a complete alliance. The alliance was not formalised because the Congress needed the Leftï¿½s support in Delhi to survive. But workers of the two parties had begun to cooperate on the ground, the parties were together in the Singur and Nandigram movement, and when Mamata Banerjee decided to go on her famous hunger strike Congress ministers made every gesture of sympathy and support.

The announcement would have been made just before the elections were due, after the Congress had made full use of the Leftï¿½s support in Parliament, and in the process neutralised the Leftï¿½s ability to criticise it on the hustings. How do you attack, in an election campaign, someone you have defended during five years in power? The Left was in a trap, a clever one set by the Congress, and unable to wriggle out of it. Moreover, some Left MPs had succumbed to the obvious temptations of being associates of a ruling alliance; the beneficiaries were loath to end this relationship prematurely. But realpolitik had to supersede the preferences of individuals. As the Left moves towards departure mode, Mamata Banerjee turns up in arrival lounge. This is not the only trap that the Congress has set for partners that it does not consider reliable enough for a long-term alliance. When the escalating price of food becomes a subject of steamy exchanges during the coming election campaign, will the Congress blame Sharad Pawar, the agriculture minister? Priya Ranjan Das Munshi has already gone on record to suggest that the wheat purchases were mishandled because Mr Pawar is more interested in being president of the cricket board than in being agriculture minister.

The nuclear deal was the perfect opportunity for the Marxists to walk out of the Bengal trap, precisely because it was an ideological issue. The Manmohan Singh government wants to bind India into a strategic relationship with the United States, specifically targeted against Iran (in writing) for starters but developing into a larger axis of the kind that America once had with Pakistan through the Baghdad Pact. This was sweetened by much talk of nuclear energy on rather salty terms, intrusive, expensive and imbalanced. The Left could hardly have found a better reason to take a stand. Incidentally, those who are waiting for the Left to split on the nuclear deal do not understand Marxists.

We live, thank Heaven, in a free country, but freedom does not give anyone the freedom to dictate the pace of a vital national debate.

The most important point relates to common sense rather than special expertise: what is the hurry? Why cannot Parliament and the people be permitted time to discuss a matter that will set the course of investment and strategy for the next four or five decades? China took fifteen years over its negotiations with America; why canï¿½t India be permitted a few months to examine the complex issues? Most people simply do not know the meaning of the strategic embrace that seeks to create a nexus of long-standing American allies, Japan, Australia and Singapore, with India. All these countries go to war when America goes to war, as they did in Iraq, even when majority public opinion is not in favour of self-defeating conflicts like Iraq. How many Indians are aware that there are four clauses in three sections of the Hyde Act which bind India to a "congruent" foreign policy with America on Iran, and that they express and impose an operational obligation on the US administration to bring India into full compliance? Link this with statements made by American officers that the current war games between the "allied" navies are designed to achieve operational compatibility in war.

One has a right to ask whether this is preparation for a potential conflict with Iran, particularly when Pentagon sources are openly talking about an Iran plan in which the countryï¿½s nuclear and other assets will be flattened by three days of intense aerial bombing. The government has an obligation to discuss this.

Former Prime Minister V.P. Singh is still waiting for a response to his query on the price and value of the peaceful nuclear energy that has suddenly become the key to the future. I hope he is not condemned as a traitor ï¿½ or even a Marxist! ï¿½ for asking inconvenient questions. But such is the hurry of the Prime Minister that he even had a chat with Mr Amar Singh in the hope of getting the support of the Samajwadi Party.

There is no danger to the government if it doesnï¿½t rush through the deal: why would the Prime Minister want to risk his government when he can tell George Bush that he needs a stable majority in Parliament behind this deal before he can go through with it? Surely Dr Singh can crave for something without being craven?

India has begun to ask questions. A slogan is not an answer.

09-09-2007, 08:40 PM

Mamata Banerjee always makes wrong disicion, West Bangal need good leader, but prolonged commie rule had destroyed any future leader.
Commies know how to win election and they will win again.

09-09-2007, 11:24 PM

30 feared killed as flyover collapses in Hyderabad
2-3 more such type of incidence, Congress can say Good bye to AP.

09-10-2007, 07:40 AM

<img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/specool.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='specool.gif' /> UNPA headed for early demise

K Venkataramanan/PNS | Chennai/New Delhi

Does it exist as one entity at all, wonders Jayalalithaa

With mid-term polls looking inevitable, the AIADMK has indicated an imminent parting of ways with the newly floated Third Front, a development that could come as a major boost for the NDA.

Taking a snipe at the functioning of the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA), a front of eight regional parties, AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa on Sunday wondered whether the UNPA still considered her party a part of it and whether it was still one entity.

Significantly, Jayala-lithaa's remarks came within two days of her hour-long meeting with BJP leader and in-charge of Tamil Nadu Ravi Shanker Prasad.

Talking to The Pioneer, Prasad said his meeting with Jayalalithaa was a courtesy call, but he admitted they did discuss ongoing political developments at the Centre.

Sources said Prasad was dispatched by party chief Rajnath Singh to open channel of communication with possible allies in the southern State.

During her meeting with the BJP leader, Jayalalithaa expressed serious concern over growth of terrorism in southern India and the Centre's soft-peddling of the issue, sources said.

The BJP leaders feel that this itself was a major meeting ground between the two parties for a possible future alliance.
Expressing her unhappiness over the functioning of the UNPA, Jayalalithaa distanced herself from Samajwadi Party (SP) general secretary Amar Singh's statement that the UNPA would be ready to accept some other mechanism to go into the India-US civilian nuclear agreement, if the Centre was not ready to concede the Opposition demand to set up a Joint Parliamentary Committee.

Jayalalithaa denied the UNPA had taken such a stand and said Amar Singh's opinion should be treated as only that of his party and not that of the Front. Such a view had not been discussed within the UNPA and certainly not with the AIADMK, she said. "There can be only one committee or mechanism on a crucial national issue for all parties, including the ruling allies, those supporting the Government from outside and Opposition parties.

This is a national issue which cannot permit promotion of any sectional view and cannot be split into parts or atomised," she said.

Jayalalithaa was also unhappy that while the SP and the Telugu Desam Party, both constituents of the UNPA, joined the Left parties in a march against the joint Naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal, the AIADMK had not been invited, or even informed, of the programme.
"All these developments make me wonder if the AIADMK is still a part of the UNPA, or whether the UNPA continues to exist as one entity at all," she said.

The UNPA had been launched as a forum of parties maintaining equidistance from the Congress and the BJP. It had decided to abstain from the presidential election and put up its own candidate for the election of the Vice-President. However, the AIADMK had broken ranks with the Front by allowing its members to vote in the presidential election.

The AIADMK's participation in the presidential poll and its backing to the BJP nominee had raised suspicions about its loyalty to the UNPA.

There is also speculation that the UNPA is heading for an untimely break-up on the issue of who would lead it, with both Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav and Jayalalithaa reportedly wishing to be its leader.

09-11-2007, 02:41 AM

QUOTEFour Rajasthan MLAs join BJP
Jaipur: Four MLAs, including three of Indian National Lok Dal, in Rajasthan on Monday joined the BJP while a regional outfit merged with the saffron party.


It means Congress had no chance yet in Rajasthan.

09-11-2007, 07:43 AM

QUOTE(Mudy @ Sep 11 2007, 02:41 AM)<div class='quotetop'>QUOTEFour Rajasthan MLAs join BJP
Jaipur: Four MLAs, including three of Indian National Lok Dal, in Rajasthan on Monday joined the BJP while a regional outfit merged with the saffron party.


It means Congress had no chance yet in Rajasthan.
[right][snapback]72950[/snapback][/right]
</div>

You are extremely optimistic person. <!--emo& Smile

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' />

09-11-2007, 08:13 AM

QUOTEYou are extremely optimistic person. 
My theory is based on migrating birds. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /> According to news they are flying right side.
Lok Dal, it means jats are moving right, upper caste already said syonara to Congress.

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