World Trends

[acharya]

TO discuss all trends in the world

Then the turning away from the religion of technology and the reemergence of spirituality as manifested in the religious revival are signs of great hope. Having vowed to make war and weapons of mass destruction obsolete, a renew humanity begins the task of healing the environment. (John Naisbitt - Megatrend 2000)

Here are some of the question Naisbitt raises:
Is the Millenium the symbolic struggle between Good verses Evil? Is the Millenium revival a metaphor of choice, where, on one hand man can destroy himself through: nuclear annihilation, bio terror, or the green house effect; and on the other hand, God destroys the wicked because of their willfull disobedience to his laws. What does it mean when we hear "God is Dead" espoused by the Greek Nietzsche philosophy of those who worship science? Are we prepared to embrace and accept both sides of human nature? Do we have to abandon our humanity too embrace science? Is the spiritual revival a quest to better our lives and our neighbors?

In times of religious persecution, economic hard times, social change people seek to escape out of history seek millennial promises of peace and plenty.

Science and technology do not tell us the meaning of life. One starts to rediscover the emotional side of life. There is a deep need for emotional fulfillment through religion. In tough times, people anchor down with either fundamentalism or spiritualistic experiences.

As stronger emotional needs start surface, more advocacy of millennial doctrine will occur with rhetoric centering on themes of apocalyptic destruction and the final return and reign of Christ. The end out come will be "Good" has over "Evil".

Fundamentalism will increase: Shinto, Islam, Protestantism, Buddhism, and Judism.

Joseph Cambell's in his book "Power of Myth" emphasized the importance and power of myth. Myth has power and influence on human behavior. Naisbitt indicates that in time of rapid change both inner-directed, "trust the feeling inside" and out-direction, "authoritive doctrine" will increase. "The Battle for God" further supports the idea of a religious revival with a vast potential to influence media, business, and politics.

Naisbitt observes, one Shinto priest known as the "miracle man of Japan" won 5 million members, in Japan, United States, and Brazil with 80 percent being non-Japanese. Fundamentalist Soutern Baptists have become the largest Protestant denomination. Naisbitt says, "The Catholic Church is reflecting the evangelical influence by tolerating a full-fledged charismatic movement that make some Southern Baptist look tame". In North America new religions outside of the Judeo-Christian framework are growing: Moslem, followers of Islam, Buddhism, and Korean religions.

The fundamentalist have used media to spread their message. Religion is targeting marketing, larger architectures to congregate, music, books and generating billions of dollars in business. The religous leader broadcast taylo made messages and content which are being modeled by feedback from what the people want. Fundamental religion authoritivately spells out the answers. The New Age of Channeling seeks to use meditation, chants, and dream works to increase human intutition.

The New Agers and Fundamentalist commonly dislike each other. "New Agers are tired of the tyranny of fundamental religions trying to take away the right of freedom of religion and the press," says Elizabeth Burrows. Harvey Cox says, "a global phenomenon that has to do with the unraveling of modernity" and marks the end of "a kind of faith where science would master all our problems."

[acharya]

This book is the 1990 update to the blockbluster, Megatrends, by John Naisbitt from 1982. The date in the title of this book is a reference to the end point of the forecast period.

I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses.

I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include:

(1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology.

(2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts.

(3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected.

(4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism.

(5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies.

(6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand.

(7) women become much more important in leadership roles.

(8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor.

(9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience.

(10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual."

The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty.

As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature.

On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view.

Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method.

Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of these trends is likely, but what will be the new ones? You'll have to think about that for yourself.

After you have finished enjoying this book and thinking about what it means for your future, I suggest that you consider how you can expand your own individual potential. As the Army likes to say, "Be all that you can be."

Use the irresistible trends to your advantage for breakthrough gains!
Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future (Hardcover)
by John Naisbitt

One of the consistent themes in recent Western literature is a habit of comparing East Asian culture and society with those in the West, and specifically, to pick out those features of East Asian society that were unique and intrinsice to East Asia. Known as Orientalism, this genre had a condenscending undercurrent and brought forth images of coolies pulling rickshaws, corrupt officials smoking in opium dens, and Western sailors catching "yellow fever" in places like Bangkok and Singapore.

From the 1970s' onward, Orientalism has been replaced by growing praise of the economies of the East Asian countries, especially those with large Chinese populations such as Taiwan, Malaysia and China itself. Boasting the virtues of good education, disciplined populations, and strong family ties, Westerners have authored thousands of books on the growing power of the Orient. This book, Megatrends Asia, is just one in a long line of such works. The author uses empirical and statistical data to draw out 8 trends that are transforming the region into a world economic powerhouse. These trends are presented as primarily a shift from a rural, state-directed economy to a networked, consumer-driven, city-based economy. All this is true, but the author fails to fully explore several trends that though are not as positive and beneficial, are still as important in dictating the future of this region. Specifically, these trends are
1. The growing dependence on imported energy. Notice China's overtures to various West Asian countries due to oil and natural gas needs.
2. The spread of AIDS, heart disease, obesity, and other "lifestyle" illnesses.
3. The growth of military spending AND foreign military involvement in the various East Asian countries.
4. The growth in the black market of this region. Forget about the Hondas made in Japan or the seafood farmed in Thailand. What is really making dollars is all the illegal activity such as intellectual property infringement, the sex trade, the production and marketing of dirt cheap consumer goods sporting brand names from Europe's fashion centers...
5. The mass, and often forced, migration of whole communities to make way for factories, highways, and other features of an industrial economy.
6. The rise of militant Islam. Especially noticeable in Indonesia and Malaysia, but also present in Singapore, Phillipines and Thailand, this foreboding trend is making the orient the next battle ground in Bush's War on Terror.

Overall, this book is good, but not great. It correctly recognizes and explores major, region-wide changes, but ignores or minimizes several other major changes.

n Megatrends Asia, Naisbitt does an excellent job in presenting the next eight major shifts taking place in Asia. His use of precise examples and interviews clarifies the points he is trying to express. For example, he sites specific countries and their new infrastructure projects. He presents specific statistics, like with Asian credit and the number of credit cards being issued. Acer Group is mentioned as an example of the rise in Asian brand names.

However, I do not believe Naisbitt give adequate defense to the negative issues surrounding these shifts and their impact on the region. He briefly mentions pollution, environment, human rights, but he does not put much emphasis on them. Overall, I think Naisbitt presented a positive and fairly accurate prediction of the future. But he (we) should not ignore the inevitable negatives surrounding these shift in Asia.END


Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future (Hardcover)
by John Naisbitt

[acharya]

In their 1982 title Megatrends, Patricia Aburdene and her former husband John Naisbitt talked about the birth of the Information Economy; in Megatrends 2000, published in 1990, they predicted the networked, technology-driven Internet era. The coming megatrend, Aburdene asserts, will not be driven by external, social, or technological forces so much as "the internal dimension of change" that will reinvent free enterprise. And she's predicting that this spiritual megatrend will take firm hold of the American way of business by, say, 2010.

In seven chapters the book identifies the major facets of the new megatrend, including:

* The Power of Spirituality - From Personal to Organizational
* The Dawn of Conscious Capitalism
* Leading from the Middle
* Spirituality in Business
* The Values-Driven Consumer
* The Wave of Conscious Solutions
* The Socially Responsible Investment Boom

Along the way, Aburdene offers many intimate portraits of the people behind the spiritual evolution in business, from meditating CEOs to value-driven consumers and socially responsible investment counselors. In "Leading from the Middle," Aburdene suggests that conscious capitalism will spell an end to the era of high-profile CEOs who are outrageously overpaid not only to provide symbolic leadership of corporations, but to take virtually all the credit and blame for their companies' fortunes.

The question is what this and all the other "conscious capitalism" trends really portend for the future of American commerce. To Patricia Aburdene, this future will be one in which "the spiritual transformation of capitalism" will shift the American way of doing business "from greed to enlightened self-interest, from elitism to economic democracy, from the fundamentalist doctrine of `profit at any cost' to the conscious ideology that espouses both money and morals." If the author is overly optimistic, one hopes that she's not too far off the mark. In a time when natural disasters and accelerating environmental decline are colluding with exceptional political ineptitude to stress the great American experiment as never before, it might just be the approaching enlightenment of capitalism that illuminates a sane, sustainable path ahead for us all. -- From the Fearless Spotlight Review by D. Patrick Miller
If you were to read three books that delivered the most accurate insight into the pulse of the business industry in the last few decades, they would have to be Megatrends, Megatrends 2000 and now Megatrends 2010.

Megatrends, published in 1982, predicted what authors Aburdene and Naisbitt termed the "information economy". In 1990, this husband and wife team went a step further with Megatrends 2000 and forecast the massively technology-driven age of the internet and its far-reaching consequences. Megatrends 2010, written solely by Patricia Aburdene, asserts that business will not be driven by external, social, or technological forces so much as "the internal dimension of change". What she's predicting is a spiritual megatrend that will define and take firm hold of business as we know it.

Aburdene's projected megatrend looks at ethics, values and spirituality in business as well as socially-responsible investing. It explains why firms are taking a stand for corporate social responsibility and why so many people are choosing to buy from companies who share or reflect their values and lifestyle choices. She sees both new-economy and old-guard companies alike, tapping into the "rise of conscious capitalism" in order to do any or all of the following: clean up the corporate image, save the environment, help the less fortunate, and, of course, boost the bottom line.??

What I find most heartwarming about Aburdene's inspired vision is the overwhelming numbers of dedicated meditation practices popping up in corporation after corporation, in large and small companies all over North America. A trend she sees growing and deepening. Ahhh...

[acharya]

Naisbitt cited the example of China’s unprecedented growth in the past two decades. As a faculty member at the Nanjing University in China, Naisbitt has observed the expansion of this economic giant first-hand. More and more, he sees the decentralization of China’s global economy fueled by the emerging class of entrepreneurs.

Many cities in China are developing their own international airports to compete with one another and in the process, escaping control of the central government in Beijing. As Naisbitt sees it, China is regrouping at a higher level and it is flourishing.
In the United States, voters watched candidates in the 2004 presidential elections carefully fielding questions on the decentralization of our own economy in the form of two seemingly innocent words: offshore outsourcing.

At the forum, Naisbitt freely expressed his strong perspective on the matter. He questioned why, according to U.S. public sentiment, it was okay for professional sports teams to offshore talent, but it was considered an outrage for U.S. companies to offshore cheap labor for menial tasks?

There is a simple answer, according to Naisbitt: “[offshoring for sports talent] helps our team win.” As Naisbitt sees it, the same thing is true economically for businesses.

“When we offshore talent, it helps our companies win, it’s no different,” he said “That ought to be celebrated.”

Offshore outsourcing, he said, is also regrouping at a higher level. Naisbitt defined this new era as the “mass customization of talent.” Companies and organizations – much like professional sports teams – will draw specialized talent at from all over the world in a greater capacity. There will be more competition among offshore talent making them better and ultimately more desirable and necessary.

“With talent becoming an interchangeable global commodity, education assumes paramount position…” said Naisbitt. “In today’s global economy it becomes the number one economic priority.”

Though he concluded briefly on the topic of education, it left the greatest impression upon the forum participants. The following panel and question-and-answer session focused heavily on the rejuvenated impetus for quality education.

http://www.jaims.org/News/050204_Naisbitt_forum.html

[acharya]

China is a non-event`
Prasad Sangameshwaran / Mumbai July 25, 2006
http://www.business-standard.com/general/s...p?&autono=99205

John Naisbitt
He’s considered one of the world’s greatest futurists. In 1982, John Naisbitt wrote Megatrends, which spent two years on The New York Times bestsellers list and was translated into 57 languages. It’s still in print, as are Naisbitt’s other bestsellers Reinventing the Corporation and Global Paradox.

The 77-year-old Naisbitt is a high school dropout who went on to study at Harvard and Cornell and at last count possessed 15 honorary doctorates. This is the man who accurately predicted several game-changing global trends long before world economies were thinking beyond the “First World” — from the emergence of Asia as a world power, increasing globalisation and decentralisation, the sweeping spread of networking and the move from industrial to information societies.

But Naisbitt doesn’t consider his prognostications the stuff of crystal ball gazing. “Much of the future is hidden in the present. I always look at events from the point of view of the present,” he says.

In India to address the IBM Forum in Mumbai and Delhi, the former IBM employee who has also worked as a special appointee in the John F Kennedy administration and as special assistant to US President Lyndon Johnson spoke with Business Standard about his initiation as a futurist — he subscribed to over 100 newspapers to get behavioural insights of people across the US since he believes that newspapers are “the first draft of history” (his recommendations: Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist and The New York Times ). Excerpts:

Most businesses are constantly grappling with change. What is your view on todays changing business scenario?

Most things remain constant even when we see lots of change. People say the only thing constant in business is change. That is absolutely ridiculous. Most things do not change. But that does not make news. The only news that gets reported is change. If business develops a mindset only around change, it’s not going to be helpful.

Then shouldn’t companies be present in businesses that experience little or no change?

That’s certainly a very solid strategy. One of the best businesses in the world is this (pulling a pencil out of his pocket). This has not changed despite many forms of writing instruments.

Procter & Gamble makes things that people will use forever. Nobody wants to be in the business of fads. Fads, by definition, go away.

Is the future bright for businesses across the world?

Well, I think so. The world is not only the Middle East, fortunately. At any given time, it seems that the world is going to pieces. But the fact of the matter is that the number of conflicts and their intensity have been going down for some time. Most of my adult life was in the Cold War.

We could have blown ourselves up any Tuesday morning and so many of us have forgotten how scary it was to realise that we could have had a nuclear war, mutual annihilation and all that. In that regard, things have already got brighter.

The other uplifting thing is the globalisation process. What is more interesting for me is that the individual is so important in this process. When we read about big companies, the fastest-growing segments of the global economy are the individual global entrepreneurs.

They have their own product or service idea and they sell it to the world using DHL or FedEx as their distribution systems. It’s extraordinary how individuals can change the world.

I think it’s a very hopeful world, despite conflicts. The whole influence of the geopolitical system is receding as the global economic system gains priority.

What’s continuing to happen is that economic considerations are overwhelming political considerations. That process will not slow down. Part of that process will also calm down areas in the world where there are conflicts.

When things are bright, are there also any shades of grey for business?

For business there are only shades of grey. It’s not a smooth ride. But that’s a part of the adventure. Otherwise, it would be boring. One of the things I say is, “be an opportunity seeker and not a problem solver”.

Opportunity seekers are the ones who will change the world. They look for openings and possibilities. Problem-solvers necessarily deal with yesterday.

But can’t problems become opportunities? For instance, the Indian IT opportunity boom was built on the back of the Y2K bug.

That was an opportunity. There was a crunch in manpower to fix the Y2K problem. Opportunity seekers find a way to do that. There was change. The 21st century was rushing towards us and it was almost there. The US, primarily, needed a lot of help. Indian entrepreneurs rushed in and this led to a great strategic position of moving forward to the most dynamic business sector in the world.

Oil companies are talking about a serious shift to alternate energy. Is the future in alternative energy?

Alternative energy is necessary. One of the mindsets that I quote in my forthcoming book Mind Set is, “things we expect to happen, always happen more slowly”. That’s particularly true of technology.

Oil is going to last for a long time. We should have started earlier to search for alternative energy. The price of oil will come down, dramatically. This is Economics 101, demand and supply. As the price of oil touches $70-80, new producers will emerge and new finds will be announced. Pretty soon, the supply will be enough to drive the price down.

You had forecast that the Y2K “disaster” would be a non-event. What are the non-events that people are worried about at present?

I think, China. Two things about China are generating a lot of hype. One hype is that China is going to take over the world. Last December, China recast its GDP to almost $2 trillion. But the US GDP is moving up to $13 trillion and the US is not going to stop growing. In those terms, it will take 30-40 years for China to even catch up. Even in terms of standard of living, it’s quite another matter. So it’s a big hype that China is going to get you.

The other issue is the fear that China is going to break up (decentralise). The interesting news is, it is already breaking up. China is the most decentralising country in the world. It’s an old Chinese idea that the periphery is the centre. That’s true of China now.

Even second-tier cities in China can get foreign investment directly. Beijing pretends to rule and the provinces pretend to be ruled. But that does not stop them from building airports and competing for FDI. Of course, Beijing is letting them do that and that’s a great thing.

You have spoken about companies being in the centre of economic activity....

Investments are shifting from nation states to economic domains. The question is not whether China will beat India. The question is whether a Chinese company in that sector will beat an Indian company from the same sector.

The competition is between people and companies. Countries don’t create economies. Entrepreneurs create economies. The government’s role is to create a nourishing environment for its companies, just like it’s a company’s role to create a nourishing environment for its employees. Then, entrepreneurs will see openings and the opportunity seekers will create employment opportunities.

Business models are undergoing a change. What is the business model of the future?

All kinds of roles will work as an organic function of what companies are doing. Business models grow out of the circumstances in which they are functioning. The P&G model (marketing) is very interesting.

What it does is to draw on talent. In a way, pharma companies are also evolving. As their pipelines for new drugs are drying up, they acquire tiny innovative companies, because their in-house R&D teams are not producing enough innovation for this kind of growth. So it serves as a new model. You go where the talent is.

There have been comparisons between computer makers and automobile manufacturers. While computers have undergone a sea change in a short time, automobiles have relatively been low on innovation. What are your views?

In the beginning of the 20th century automobiles were a big thing. There were 2,700 automobile companies in the US. After a long shakeout, 99 per cent of them did not survive. At present, the US has only four companies. Just two of them are American companies. And even those two are in big trouble. I got a quote from Bill Ford for my book that says, “We are going to really listen to customers”. Imagine! Listening to customers after all these years. But that’s a significant quote.

You have said that the future is embedded in the present. Then how did most companies, particularly those in consumer electronics (such as analogue camera manufacturers), fail to see the future, despite being ahead of the pack in their own domain?

Most of the present is going to be the past. Only some part will be the future. That’s the trick. To see which things are seeds of the future and what belongs to the past. Technology is special. It moves quicker and the judgements are much harsher. If you have a new technology it can wipe out the old, practically overnight.

The future is something that is with us now, but not seen. The trick is to see trends before the rest and anticipate their becoming more important.

[acharya]

http://www.gurusonline.tv/uk/conteudos/naisbitt2.asp

http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/jul/25inter.htm

I assume that the rise of China will also be one of the subjects covered.
Most certainly. However, it won't be as meteoric as many experts would have us believe. All this hype about China is just crazy. You'd think the Chinese would be conquering the USA next Tuesday morning. But on sober reflection, it will take another 30 to 40 years before the catch-up race can really begin. Obviously China is becoming more and more of a production site for the rest of the world, and the Chinese will soon have a leading role in design or even research. But we should never lose sight of the actual state of the game, the facts. Which would bring us to another mindset. If I read in the newspaper that Arsenal won 3-2, then I'm pretty confident that that is in fact the case. That's also why I like reading the sports pages so much. The reports there are the most reliable in the whole newspaper. In principle, there would also be quite reliable facts in the political pages, but they're not so immediately obvious. For instance, when Schröder was in office he was speaking of a prospering economy even when the sobering facts were revealing growth of only 0.1 percent.
Of course, sports journalists also report on missed chances and adverse conditions, but at the end of the day the only thing we're interested in is the result. Translating that into terms of China: although the size of its economy, with a gross domestic product of just under 2 trillion US dollars, is already considerable, that of the USA is still six times bigger.

If you don't foresee an economic takeover by China, what other major changes do you expect by the middle of the century?
Nothing major will happen in the very near future. If we look back into the past, we see that revolutionary innovations appear in clusters. We saw the last proliferation at the end of the last century, which was when all the big breakthroughs in information technology and biotechnology occurred. Now we'll spend the next fifty to a hundred years further developing and perfecting these innovations. That takes time. Take the example of measuring time. From the first water-clock in China to the Swatch watch took around three thousand years of further development. Even the aeroplane was invented more than a hundred years ago now, and we're still flying in accordance with the same principle. The jet airplane was only one step in aircraft development, not a genuine innovation.

One the one hand we've got people in the western world living longer and longer, while the eastern world, with its large population of children, is becoming increasingly stronger economically. Will we soon be a bit pushed for space on Earth?
Not at all. As general prosperity grows, so the average birth rate contracts to the same extent. In Europe a woman gives birth to an average of less than 1.4 children. But we would need 2.1 just to replace ourselves. People like to talk of the sustainable use of natural resources; but we ignore our own sustainability completely and are also still very choosy about immigrants. If things carry on this way in Europe, in two generations the population will be only half the size it is today. That is an enormous problem, which hardly anybody talks about.

What other problems do you still see in store for Europe?
Earlier, I used to believe Europe had an identity crisis. Having lived here for the last six years, I'm talking nervous breakdown. It has no proper leadership, instead it's just got all the more rules and regulations that Brussels wants to impose from the top down. And something else that is utterly ridiculous is that Constitution that runs to more than 800 pages, which the French and the Dutch quite understandably rejected. Nobody knows what's in it. Depending on the paper size, the US Constitution is eight to twelve pages long and everybody can make something of those principles.

Is the idea of a united Europe doomed to failure then?
Europe will never become a federation. Despite all the regulations, it functions very well as a free trade area. But the move to a federation with a common foreign policy will never happen. What we have is 25 states with 25 different mindsets.

So the USA's economic and political world domination will still last a while longer, then?
America is a world empire just as the Roman Empire once was. And it doesn't look as though that is likely to change in the very near future. And I wouldn't even want to qualify that either. For me, what count are the facts, the state of the game. America has by far the strongest economy. In second place comes Japan, but only by a very wide margin. And the Japanese economy has been standing still for so many years it's as good as dead. Ultimately, there is only one serious contender on the horizon. And that will most definitely not be the EU, which can't even ensure order militarily in its own backyard.

Which brings us back to China.
Right. But the USA's not standing still either. Admittedly it's showing growth of only four percent compared to ten percent in China, but the US economy is six times bigger.

Now there are more and more experts in Switzerland as well who think this constant striving for growth is absurd.
Well, you tell these people: "If you don't grow, you die!" That applies equally to people, trees, companies or economies. If Europe doesn't manage to crank up its growth, sometime or other it will become an historic open-air museum with a high standard of living for rich Asians and Americans. That is not a bad thing in itself. After all, I live here, too, and I think it's great. But that can hardly be the EU's ultimate objective, can it?

On the other hand, I don't find the idea of unrestrained global growth, bringing us millions of new stinking exhaust-pipes in Asia year after year, exactly alluring either.
That's a problem for which I don't have a solution to hand.

But I'm still keen to hear what you think.
Basically, the Chinese think we've got a nerve, wanting to give them any advice on protection of the environment, let alone making demands. After all, the West has done exactly the same thing itself. Hence my proposal now for each additional car that appears on the street in China we take one out of circulation here. Of course no-one here will find that so very funny. For that reason we have to find cleaner alternatives to today's carbon-fuelled engine. We can't withhold from others what we don't want to do without ourselves.

What will be the clean energy of the future?
Ultimately, there will probably be no getting around nuclear energy. In terms of waste gas emissions, it is still the cleanest solution.

Do you see any crucial changes in the financial system ahead of us?
One of my biggest hobby-horses of all is the privatization of national currencies. We are just not aware of how much money we are losing year after year through this monopoly position of governments. In principle, there is nothing new in private currencies either. Once upon a time we had seven or eight banks with their own currencies in the USA. Currencies are commodities or goods just like potatoes or refrigerators. Why should a government have a monopoly on them?

25 years ago you were the first person to coin the term "globalization". How is this trend progressing?
I speak today of a globalization of talents. Sport has already gone a long way down this road. When Real Madrid, just a couple of years ago, was indisputably the best football team in the world, there were only two Spaniards playing in the team. Today there are over a hundred Brazilians under contract in the football leagues of Europe, and most of them are earning huge amounts of money. But unlike the managers, this does not appear to bother anybody as far as the footballers are concerned. Another example: the new CEO of Sony, one of the rocks on which the Japanese economic miracle was founded, is the American Howard Springer, who does not speak Japanese and does not have his office in Tokyo but in New York.

http://emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/art...d=29567&lang=EN

[acharya]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articl...2,prtpage-1.cms




How will this impact the cultural identity of nations?

As we become more global, we will increasingly hold on to our cultural identities. Take Korea, which was an insulated country till the Japanese left. See how they have prospered today. They have become more reliant on the outside world, and at the same time they have become more aware of their culture. I see Koreans becoming more Korean and Indians becoming more Indian.


What are your views on Asia, and the India-China wave?

What I wrote about is being played out. But this race between India and China that’s being written about, is a bit ridiculous. The race is only between companies in India and China in their respective economic domains. Arcelor-Mittal is the biggest steel company in the world, and none of it gets made in India. None of it will count in the GDP of the country. GDP is absolutely ridiculous — in fact, it means nothing. We need new measures; we need a new index — the Economic Domain Index.


How difficult is it to predict the future during a time when change is happening at a faster pace?

It’s actually easier now. We are moving into a period of evolutionary, continuous change, where we’re testing and perfecting the breakthroughs we’ve already made. That’s more predictable and organised. I think unpredictability has gone down, and we’ll see more of incremental change.

[acharya]

http://www.thelearningweb.net/page011summ.html




The Chinese back-to-your-roots model

One of the most exciting models of all is to rediscover the great strengths of a society's own culture. That's why China is one of the most exciting countries in the world to visit today. Probably no society has a stronger "learning ethic" than China.. No large developing country is racing harder to join the world of space-age communications; by early the year 2000 or 2001, China will rank next to the United States in the number of Internet connections. Yet China is striving, too, to marry the era of "networked intelligence" to its own traditions and roots.
In doing so it is rediscovering that many of today's most effective learning methods were those first taught 2,500 years ago by Confucius and his close followers. Many critics credit Confucius with a Chinese preoccupation with examinations, forgetting that he urged these in particular to select , on merit, the main advisers the country's rulers. But many of his other concepts are even more valid now than they were when he became China's most famous early teacher:
Confucius urged the blending new ideas with old proven concepts.
He was a democrat - and wanted to bring about social reforms through education.
He believed strongly in "learning by doing".
Confucius used the whole world as his classroom. He did not teach in the confines of a school.
He used music and poetry extensively in both learning and teaching.
He believed that learning how to learn was as important as learning information.
He believed that everyone had different learning abilities, and able teachers should cater to these individual abilities.
And he believed strongly in the importance of values and courteous behavior, still two key characteristics of Chinese schooling.15


BOOK SUMMARY
.
.Table of Contents
A map for the revolution

11

.Preface


An invitation from China to the rest of the world
16
.Introduction

History's newest revolution: the power to change your life
19
.1 The future (Chapter Topics)

The 16 major trends that will shape tomorrow's world
37
.2 Why not the best? (Chapter Topics)

The 13 steps needed for a 21st century learning society
85
.3 Meet your amazing brain (Chapter Topics)

You're the owner of the world's most powerful computer
113
.4 A do-it-yourself guide (Chapter Topics)

The first 20 steps to learn anything much faster, better and more easily
145
.5 How to think for great ideas (Chapter Topics)

New program to teach yourself and students creative thinking
183
.6 Right from the start (Chapter Topics)

A sensible guide for producing better, brighter babies
213
.7 The vital years (Chapter Topics)

How to enrich your child's intelligence from birth to ten
227
.8 The secret heart of learning (Chapter Topics)

How to program for success in education and in business
269
.9 True learning: the fun-fast way (Chapter Topics)

New-century guideposts for tomorrow's teachers, trainers
297
.10 Do it in style (Chapter Topics)

How to find your own learning style and use your many intelligences
341
.11 Catching up quick at school (Chapter Topics)

The world's greatest catch-up programs - and why they work
367
.12 Solving the dropout dilemma (Chapter Topics)

How to get "high" on education and not on drugs, gangs and crime
401
.13 Planning tomorrow's schools (Chapter Topics)

The 12 steps to transform a nation's education system
435
.14 Tomorrow's business world (Chapter Topics)

Big growth opportunities for 'the learning organization"
463
.15: Just do it! (Chapter Topics)

How any country can lead the learning revolution: and so can you
487
.
.Chapter reference notes 514
.Acknowledgments and thanks 526
.resources
The Learning Revolution Library 528
Other recommended reading 534
.Index

[acharya]

Dynamic India hits its stride

By John C. Bersia
Orlando Sentinel
July 19, 2005

The hard-charging Indian network knocked on my door the other day in the form of a high-level delegation led by Chandrakant A. Salunkhe, president of the India International Trade Centre and head of a number of companies.

The visit was all about making contacts, seeking business opportunities, promoting exchanges and expanding connections with the non-resident Indian community — now 22 million strong and growing. Our discussion said volumes about the rapidly changing nature of the global economy, the need to pursue opportunities aggressively and the expanding power of networks.
ADVERTISEMENT

I must admit, given my longstanding interest in China and East Asia, that I have paid far more attention to another globe-trotting ethnic group, the dominant, multi-trillion-dollar overseas Chinese network.

Trend forecaster John Naisbitt extensively discussed that group in his prescient work, Megatrends Asia, a decade ago, as he described the shifting of economic influence from nation-states to networks. “The overseas Chinese are a network of networks. That is a new paradigm, a new formulation within the framework of the world’s economy,” Naisbitt wrote.

However, in a subsequent conversation with me, Naisbitt suggested keeping an eye on the Indian network, which then numbered around 10 million. He believed that it was just a matter of time before the Indian network evolved into a formidable force, particularly for India’s economic development.

Indeed, it has. Could Indians one day challenge the Chinese for global ethnic network supremacy?

Possibly, and here’s why. Although the Chinese unquestionably enjoy a comfortable lead, having extended their global reach early — and China itself accelerated that trend by embracing extensive economic reforms in the late 1970s — India has imposing assets.

Those include a similar-sized population and an abundance of talent. Beyond that, India possesses a competitive hunger and a distinct advantage: Indians commonly speak English, the primary language of commerce and the Internet.

Salunkhe and his team — all heavy-hitters from banking, manufacturing, marketing and other sectors — confidently operate with the efficiency and effectiveness of precision equipment. They are all business, even in the anecdotes they share, such as the story of Shirish Jadhav, an entrepreneur who is part of the delegation. Jadhav once scoured the countryside, collecting scrap metal, to make a living. With a combination of pluck and luck, he has lifted himself from rags to riches, and pursues a flourishing real-estate development enterprise. In economic terms, Jadhav is the new India.

The enthusiasm in such discussions quickly becomes infectious, spurring a desire to find out more about the ascendant Indian network and India itself. Opportunities clearly abound.

The sizable middle-income population in India displays an insatiable demand for goods and services of all kinds — an open invitation for American companies that have yet to take advantage of India’s gr

And in that picture, how do you see the emergence of what Kenichi Ohmae refers in his book, "The End of Nation State", as the state-regions?

J.N. - The Chinese diaspora is dominating the whole Asian economy, with the exception of Japan, South Korea and India. It is also necessary to refer the Indian diaspora, of about 10 million of non residents, that generate an economy that is bigger than India. We have to think less of State-Nations. In this way, it is getting more complicated to know, for example, the GNP, of each country, because each country has a lot of economic relations with the rest of the world. Today, the statistic methods used to calculate the GNP are out of fashion. As Kenichi Ohmae puts it: the State-Nations are, in fact, in decline.


http://www.spokesmanreview.com/breaking/...sp?ID=4453

[Guest]

<b>THE NEW COLD WAR</b>

<b>The Global Battle for Natural Resources</b>

<i>By Erich Follath </i>

The global economy is booming, and experts predict it will stay healthy. But competition for natural resources will change the balance of power among the world's nations as a new age of conflicts over energy begins. In a new online series, SPIEGEL documents the global competition for dwindling supplies of natural resources.

<i>Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan</i>

URL: http://service.spiegel.de/cache/internatio...,408932,00.html

[Guest]

<!--emo&:angry:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='mad.gif' /><!--endemo--> Thai Commander Takes Over After Coup

Thai Military Launches Coup, Backs King
BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Thailand's army commmander ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a military coup Tuesday night while the prime minister was in New York, circling his offices with tanks, declaring martial law and revoking the constitution.

An announcement on national television signed by army Commander-in-Chief Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin(a Muslim in predominantly Budhist nation) ordered all troops to report to their duty stations.

As soldiers and armored vehicles moved through Bangkok, an announcement from the military earlier declared a provisional authority loyal to beloved King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

The announcement declared that a "Council of Administrative Reform" had seized power in Bangkok and nearby provinces without any resistance. It recognized the king as head of state.

[dhu]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b><span style='color:red'>Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, who is known to be close to Thailand's revered monarch and is a Muslim in this Buddhist-dominated nation, took power without a shot being fired. He will serve as acting prime minister, said army spokesman Col. Akara Chitroj.</b> http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/w...98902.html<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--></span>

[acharya]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=yxJ8zT6pblo&m...ed&search=
http://youtube.com/watch?v=2SUp4Xo_PII&m...ed&search=
http://youtube.com/watch?v=xWFOMrpfkDE&m...ed&search=

http://www.erichufschmid.net/Interview-wit...l-14Sep2006.mp3
http://youtube.com/watch?v=-RcKLAo62Ro&m...ed&search=
http://youtube.com/watch?v=5JyJf3lA5TA&m...ed&search=

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6...moonmovie&hl=en
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=48...ding+hoax&hl=en
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2...495966561&hl=en

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF7tVOIifTU&NR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdMvQTNLaUE&NR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMrUpCjVHIk...related&search=

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI3DLutr9-k...related&search=
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRoLL5JM8Nk...related&search=

http://www.aulis.com/jackstudies_22.html
http://apollomoonhoax.blogspot.com/

[ramana]

Capt and Dhu, how are your posts relevant to this thread? There are innumerable threads where your posts culd have gone but why this? I am only asking not demanding.

Acharya has a definite purpose to this thread and has posted accordingly. Thanks, ramana

[Guest]

<!--emo&<_<--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /><!--endemo--> Ramana,
War on terror: UK seeks Indian Muslims' help
Mohammed Wajihuddin
To me this post looks very relevant to world trends but if it does not look to u on behalf of Acharya, u cant move it to any other thread where u think it's relevant and for that matter, even if it's deleted; how do I care?
As a general priniciple, I think, this should remain with the person who is posting it to post it where the person likes it to be unless and until it grossly violates admn.

[ramana]

There are many threads to explore Islam and its effects. I strongly believe that the poster should exercise good judgement of how his post contributes to the general flow of thoughts in the thread. By your logic anyone can troll and post irrelevant posts and derail threads subtly while being under the radar of admin rules. Is that your objective? If that is so then admin rules have to be amended. OTH Admins have the right to censor any post they deem without giving reasons including this one.

[Guest]

<!--emo&<_<--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /><!--endemo--> The thread has been moved.
Thread is trendsetter where UK Govt is seeking the help of Indian Muslims to harmonise the Britishers' relations vis a vas British Muslims. At least, I haven't seen this trend.
btw: thanks for reminding about the article; I had forgotten it altogether.

[acharya]

It is only geopolitical trend and should be poted in geopolitics.

British, Indian muslims and British muslims are geopolitical.


World trends are -

Economic,
Social trends at world scale.

World network of races , religion and ethnicity

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&:cool--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/specool.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='specool.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Mahabharata lessons for British soldiers going to Iraq
6 Apr 2008, 1456 hrs IST,PTI
LONDON: Krishan Attri, the British army's first Hindu chaplain, uses extracts from the Mahabharata to counsel British soldiers going to war in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Attri was among the first four faith chaplains appointed by the army in November 2005. The other three were Mandeep Kaur (Sikh chaplain), Sunil Kariyakarawana (Buddhist), and Imam Asim Hafiz (Islam).

Britain's armed forces have 300 regular commissioned Christian chaplains serving 183,000 Christian personnel, but the four new chaplains were the first such appointments in the history of the forces.

Attri, who hails from Kasauli in Himachal Pradesh, says that he uses the Bhagwad Gita to explain the necessity of going to war to British Hindu soldiers deputed in Iraq or Afghanistan.

There are 470 Hindus in Britain's armed forces. "I tell them, 'God has given you an opportunity to protect your country and maintain peace in the world'. They need to know they are not killing anybody but just performing a duty," Attri says.

When Attri was interviewed at the Ministry of Defence for the job, he was asked what he would say if a soldier did not want to go to war.

Hindu teachings, he responded, offered good guidance: "Duty is our priority. It's our karma, and we have to face it." Hindu teachings have armed most of the soldiers, he told The Times .

"They know they've undertaken a contract to look after the boundary walls of the country," he told the newspaper.

[Capt M Kumar]

<img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> The immigration policy of the new coalition government will put an annual limit and new curbs on migrants from India and other countries outside the European Union.



As per the understanding between the Conservative and Liberal Democrats parties, it is the Conservative policy that has been adopted by the new coalition government.



The Liberal Democrats' immigration policy of region-based migration and amnesty to illegal migrants in the UK for 10 years has been given up during the protracted negotiations that preceded the formation of the new government last night. http://news.in.msn.com/international/art...id=3899235