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Indian Economy: Growth -2
Sixth Pay Commission may derail economy
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->'The Fifth Pay Commission (set up in 1994) recommendations resulted in a Rs 530 billion payout by the government. The next (sixth) pay commission would effectively wind up Indian sovereignty.'

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Foreign Exchange Reserves</b>             
        Variation over
Item As on Jul. 14, 2006 Week
  Rs. Crore US$ Mn.Rs. Crore US$ Mn.Rs. Crore                     
Total Reserves
7,55,011  1,62,659   2,077  –601
Foreign Currency Assets
7,22,989  1,55,716  2,065  –599*                 
Gold 28,479 6,180 — —
2 — — —
Reserve Position in the IMF**
3,541 763 12 –2
* : Foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar terms include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies
(such as Euro, Sterling, Yen) held in reserves. For details, please refer to the Current Statistics section of the RBI Bulletin.

** : Reserve Position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), i.e., Reserve Tranche Position (RTP) which was shown
as a memo item from May 23, 2003 to March 26, 2004 has been included in the reserves from the week ended
April 2, 2004 in keeping with the international best
Downhill journey.

<b>ANALYSIS - RBI may keep rupee grip post</b> <!--emo&:angry:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='mad.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to let the rupee off its leash even if the country opts for fuller capital convertibility, as a volatile currency could unsettle financial markets and dent growth.

A committee appointed by the RBI is expected to submit a roadmap early next week for a gradual move towards fuller convertibility, which, if taken up, could become India's biggest financial reform in more than a decade.

But fuller convertibility could see the central bank confront a condition known to economists as the "Impossible Trinity" where it is not possible to have free capital flows, an independent monetary policy and a managed exchange rate simultaneously.

Analysts say India must get public finances in shape if it is to survive a serious external shock after full convertibility. Rating agency Standard and Poor's projects consolidated government debt at 90 percent of gross domestic product in 2006.

Higher public debt usually crowds out private investments leading to higher interest rates and eventually to slower growth.

India has made some progress in cutting its federal fiscal deficit, <b>which fell to 4.1 percent of GDP last year from 5.9 percent in 2002/03, although when combined with states' deficits it was an estimated 7.7 percent in 05/06.</b>

Deutsche Bank said in a recent report free capital movement could exacerbate the fiscal situation - <b>rising interest rates could add to the public debt service burden and force a contraction in expenditure and growth.</b>

<b>"In turn, such dynamics can trigger vicious cycles with the slowing economy generating lesser tax revenues and adding to government funding needs that cannot be met because the banking system has been rendered illiquid by capital outflows,"</b> it said.

Analysts at JP Morgan say the committee is likely to link the road to fuller convertibility to the lowering of the deficit, which a fiscal responsibility law says must be cut to 3 percent of GDP by 2008-2009
Indian brewer looking over Tchenguiz's Whyte & Mackay
By Harry Wallop (Filed: 18/08/2006)

Whyte & Mackay, one of Scotland's most famous whisky brands, could soon fall into the hands of Vijay Mallya, the flamboyant Indian billionaire, who already owns Kingfisher beer.

Speculation has been rife in the Indian press that United Breweries, Mr Mallya's company, has been eyeing up the Scottish distiller and was prepared to offer £460m.

Yesterday Robbie Tchenguiz, the property tycoon who is a lead shareholder in Whyte & Mackay, confirmed to The Daily Telegraph that negotiations were taking place. "We're in discussions, but to be honest nothing has been decided," he said.

Citibank has been appointed to advise Whyte & Mackay. When asked about the price, Mr Tchenguiz said: "I can't comment. We're at a delicate stage."

If a deal went ahead for £460m - three times last year's sales of £149m - it would represent a healthy return for Mr Tchenguiz, who has become an increasingly active dealmaker, leading the consortium to buy supermarket group Somerfield last year. He was part of a group of investors that bought the whisky business in 2001 for £208m. He, along with the chief executive and his brother in-law Vivian Immerman now own the whole company.

However, any deal could cause consternation in the Scotch Whisky industry. Mr Mallya is locked in battle with the Scotch Whisky Association, which has blocked his plans to sell cheap Indian whisky in Europe. The association has argued his "whiskies" are distilled from molasses rather than malt and are not whiskies at all.

Mr Mallya owns a range of businesses including Kingfisher airlines, leading him to be dubbed India's Richard Branson. UB is the third-largest spirits group in the world.

Among Whyte & Mackay's brands is Jura single malt - David Cameron's Desert Island luxury.
<b>India has not made real progress: Murthy</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> <b>"One of the strangest things that I have not understood (and) which I have asked many ministers in the Centre including the Prime Minister -I have received no answer - why we delicensed our industrial sector in 1991. But even today our primary and secondary education is not delicensed".</b>

"If you want to start an English medium school, you have to get
permission from the state government. If you want to start a
university, you have to get permission from the central government. It
makes no sense," he lamented

He said the economic reforms have created a paradigm where the focus
has shifted from producers to consumers. "That's the first sign of a
powerful market where the consumer is the differentiator," Murthy
<!--emo&:angry:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='mad.gif' /><!--endemo--> <span style='font-size:21pt;line-height:100%'><span style='font-family:Geneva'>The same is done everywhere inc USA.</span></span>
India set to be world's fastest wealth creator by 2010: Study <!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->India is shining bright on the world wealth map with the country set to emerge as the world's fastest wealth creator and home to a growing number of millionaires in the years to come, a latest study shows.

After emerging as the world's second fastest wealth creator after China between 2000-2005, India is all geared up for the top spot with a growth rate of 13.3 per cent through 2010, as against a global average of 5.6 per cent, US-based consultancy and research firm Boston Consultancy Group said in its 2006 Global Wealth report.
The wealth being generated is yet to bring any change in life for the 250 million poor of this country.
Well yeah, that's because the anti-Hindu socialist loser's who were running India for the last 40 years were sitting on their behind while countries like Taiwan and South Korea were opening up their economies, and now the difference in per capita is clear. India won't really see widespread benefits until they maintain this growth rate for 20-30 years.

<!--QuoteBegin-Ravish+Sep 25 2006, 11:28 PM-->QUOTE(Ravish @ Sep 25 2006, 11:28 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->The wealth being generated is yet to bring any change in life for the 250 million poor of this country.
<b>India logs 8.9 pct first quarter growth, beats forecasts </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->NEW DELHI (AFP) - India, the world's second-fastest growing major economy after China, beat most forecasts by reporting 8.9 percent growth in the first quarter to June, official data showed.

The robust performance, driven by strong manufacturing, services and construction numbers, came as the ruling Congress-led coalition marked the midway point in its five-year electoral mandate.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram hailed the showing, especially of the <b>manufacturing sector which expanded by 11.3 percent, and said the government aimed to make India a global "manufacturing hub in a dozen or two industries."</b>

The service sector, which accounts for over half of      <b> GDP, grew by 13.2 percent while construction expanded by 9.5 percent</b>, according to the data from the Central Statistical Organisation.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Chidambaram signals galloping inflation </b>
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
The Indian economy may have registered an-all time high quarterly growth of 8.9 per cent growth during the current financial year, but spiralling fiscal deficit could mar the celebration.

<b>The mismatch in growth and price rise and supply and demand are also other areas of serious concern, </b>which saw Finance Minister P Chidambaram making a desperate plea to the UPA allies on Friday to give "political space" to financial sector reforms for sustenance of growth.

Hidden under the rosy GDP figures, is also a grim reminder that agriculture growth has remained flat at 3.4 per cent.

<b>With farm sector going through a grave crisis and prices of agricultural produce skyrocketing, the stagnation in agriculture could be a source of grave worry for the UPA Government</b>.

Even though Chidambaram is confident that economy is heading in the right direction and backed his claim by the GDP growth figure, <b>he admitted that deficit crossed 60 per cent of budgetary targets during the first five months of the current fiscal. Fiscal deficit touched Rs 90,678 crore during April-August, 2006, which accounted for 60.98 per cent of the budgetary target of Rs 1,48,686 crore for the whole year, he told reporters here.</b>

<b>Revenue deficit stood at Rs 79,348 crore, which was 93.71 per cent of the target of Rs 84,727 crore for entire 2006-07, he said. "There are some concerns about the fiscal deficit figures and revenue deficit figures... I am confident, given the buoyancy in tax revenue, targets for fiscal deficit and revenue deficit will be met for the current fiscal,"</b> Chidambaram said.

However reports indicate that the <b>finance minister was worried about the intense lobbying by different ministries for greater allocation for fund for the XIth plan and feared that for government might not be able to bring down the fiscal and revenue deficits as planned.</b> Officials feel that rise in revenue mobilisation, may not meet the pressure for massive spending on social-sector programmes.

Chidambaram's admission that fiscal deficit in the first five months crossed 60 per cent of budgetary target of the entire year, is a sure indication that if the same trend continued then he would not be able to meet the target of reducing fiscal deficit from 2.6 of GDP last year to 2.1 this year. The inability control the fiscal deficit is bound to derail the Government's plan to curb inflation.<b> The overall impact could further worsen the price scenario.</b>

The reality of the situation must have weighted on the mind of the finance minister when he asked the UPA allies and the Left to remove road blocks in the path of reform.

"In a coalition it is very important that the political space is given to the government to undertake further economic reforms. There are many matters which are pending or are in pipeline. I wish and hope that we are given the political space to push through reforms," he told a press conference marking completion of almost half the term of the UPA government that came to power in May 2004.

Chidambaram's appeal assumes importance in the wake of differences within the UPA, especially the Left's opposition to crucial financial sector reform proposals.

<b>"Financial sector is the heart of the economy and unless financial sector reforms are completed it will be difficult to sustain high growth,"</b> he cautioned.

"Given the performance of the last two and half years of the economy, I wish everyone will cooperate in giving the government political space to implement further economic reforms that are contemplated in NCMP, budget speeches and various pronouncements," he said.

In particular it was very important that the government passed pending legislations in banking and pension sector reforms as also the bill on insurance, he said.

Farmers suicide are over blown so why agriculture production is stagnant <!--emo&:devil--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/devilsmiley.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='devilsmiley.gif' /><!--endemo-->
FM is doing nothing to control inflation, if looking towards left or blaming only Left not his own ability to fix problem is a solution, so dooms day is not far.
With this deficit, let's see how much they will spend on education sector to accommodate OBC reservation and Muslim appeasement.
<!--emo&:argue--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/argue.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='argue.gif' /><!--endemo-->

<b>India’s External Debt as at the end of June 2006 : USD 132.120 Billion – End March 2006 USD 125.181 Billion</b>

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Does this survey make any sense to anybody ? 50% unemployment ? Housewives are considered unemployed or what ?


<!--QuoteBegin-rraajjeevv+Aug 19 2006, 11:12 PM-->QUOTE(rraajjeevv @ Aug 19 2006, 11:12 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Indian brewer looking over Tchenguiz's Whyte & Mackay

The association has argued his "whiskies" are distilled from molasses <b>rather than malt</b> and are not whiskies at all.

<b>rraajjeevv Ji :</b>

The above statement is not entirely correct.

<b>Scotch Whisky :</b>

1. Malt Whisky : 100% Barley Malt : Distilled to about 80% Alcohol Content. I believe now the Alcohol Content of the Ditillate is being reduce – some Malt Whiskies are being distilled at around 60-70% but I have no confirmation.

2. Grain Whisky : about 75-80% Grain + 20-25% BarleyMalt : Distilled to about 96% Alcohol content.

3. Blended : It is a Blend of Malt & Grain Whiskies. The more the Malt Whisky content of the Blend the Higher its Preium Level i.e. JW Black Label contains more Malt Whisky Content than JW Red Label and JW Blue Label contains more Malt Whisky Content than JW Black Label

<b>Indian Whisky :</b>

Until a few years ago Indian Distilleries distilled Malt Whisky only for the Blended Trade except Solan No. 1 Malt. I don’t know if it is still being marketed. Lately two Indian Malt Whiskies have made a “Mark” i.e. Amrut and McDowell Single Malt. Thus the Indian Blended Whiskies are a Blend of Cane Alcohol + Malt Whisky.

The Indian Whisky distilleries take the Sugar Cane Alcohol and rectify it to 100% Alcohol content. At this stage the Whisky loses all the properties of Cane Alcohol i.e. it loses its Cane Aroma and Taste.

This 100% Rectified Indian Cane Spirit is then “Watered Down” and Blended with Indian Malt Whisky.

A decade or may be two ago the Scotch Distilleries realised that the Indian Whiskies – in their blended form – would wipe out the Scotch Whisky Trade. As such they had a “WTO or similar” Patent stating that Whisky would only be termed as such if it was Distilled from Grain. Malt is also Grain as it is the Barley Malt with Grain which is used both for the Grain Whiskies as well as 100% Barley Malt for the Malt Whiskies.

Now the Indian distilleries have started Distilling Grain Whiskies as well as Amrut and McDowell Single Malt are giving the Scotch Malt Whiskies a Run for their Money – The Scotch Malt Houses are fortunate that McDowell and Amrut are small operations but in a Decade or so there will a different tale to tell.

Note :

1. Whether Alcohol is of Cane Origin or Grain (Mainly Corn – Maize) Origin does not matter if the Distilling is done around 96% – 100%(Rectifying) as it has no Aroma or Taste attributable to its Origin.

The Colour or Taste of Scotch Blended Whisky (also Indian) is achieved by the addition of “Burnt Caramel which is made form Burnt Sugar” to the Whisky from the Cask as the Original Distillate is Colourless

2. American Whiskies – Bourbon, Corn, Tennessee or Rye whether Straight or Blended – are basically Grain Whiskies.

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
The detailed information given by you free of charge calls for a Patiala Peg on my next visit.You have in fact served a noble cause, I hope people now may not have the misconception about different brands of Whisky.Your despatch should receive wide publicity.

<!--QuoteBegin-Ravish+Sep 30 2006, 11:39 PM-->QUOTE(Ravish @ Sep 30 2006, 11:39 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Nareshji,
The detailed information given by you  free of charge  <b><span style='font-size:12pt;line-height:100%'>calls for a Patiala Peg on my next visit.</span></b> You have in fact served a noble cause,  I hope people now may not have the misconception about different brands of Whisky. Your despatch should receive wide publicity.

<b>Ravish Ji :</b>

[center]<b><span style='font-size:21pt;line-height:100%'>WHEN?</span></b>[/center]

Then I will offer you a few wee drams of the drops from the Ol' Crater.

Meantime awaiting reply to last gmail message

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->

<b>UB buys scotch giant for 400 mn pounds</b> <!--emo&:clapping--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/clap.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='clap.gif' /><!--endemo-->

MUMBAI/KOCHI: Corporate India is awfully hungry. That, perhaps, explains the frenetic pace at which Indian companies are shopping for good buys in every part of the world.

Sources at Vijay Mallya's United Spirits, a part of the United Breweries (UB) group, said they are buying the Glasgow-based Whyte & Mackay for 400 million pounds (approximately Rs 3,480 crore).

Citi Bank, Standard Chartered and ICICI Bank are believed to be funding the acquisition. On August 16, 2006, TOI had reported that the UB Group was eyeing the company.

Once the acquisition goes through, it will be a sweet victory of sorts for Mallya. To start with, it will give him a foothold in the corridors of power at the Scotch Whisky Association.

For long, he has been at loggerheads with the association, in large part because it does not allow Indian companies to sell their whiskies in Europe.

They have always contended that Indian whiskies cannot be called so because they are made out of sugar-based molasses.

English and Scottish distillers on the other hand use cereal. With Whyte & Mackay under Mallya's belt, that debate will have to be buried.

This acquisition will also avenge the setback he suffered while attempting to acquire French champagne maker Taittinger.

In spite of his bid being the most attractive, his offer attained political overtones in a Europe wary of ceding traditional turf to outsiders.

In some sense, the battle was reminiscent of L N Mittal’s woes while attempting to take over Arcelor.

The only difference was that Mittal came out trumps while Mallya was forced to give up and settle for Bouvet-Ladubay, Taittinger's wine making subsidiary.

He paid Euro 15 million for that. Whyte & Mackay is the largest selling scotch brand in Scotland. The company’s other brands include Isle of Jura Single Malt, Dalmore Scotch, Vladivar Vodka and Glavya liqueur.

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Check this table on income disparity in the world. India is much lower than many countries including China, USA, and Brazil. I thought with the evil caste system, India would have a big spread in income. Why is Brazil so high (hint: Casta system ?)

This is an invaluable piece of propaganda that can be used whenever someone goes on a tirade about the "Hindu caste system."

In India, Dalit and Brahmins are at bottom, top is occupied by Kshatriya and Banias.

[center]<b><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>Pursuing Mittal, Tata to buy Corus</span></b>[/center]

LONDON Corus Group of Britain is days away from being taken over by Tata Steel of India in a £4.05 billion cash deal, the latest sign that steel producers are rapidly going global.

Corus said Tuesday that it had received a 455 pence a share bid from Tata worth $7.6 billion, valuing the entire company at $10.2 billion, including debt.

Several people involved in the negotiations said that Tata had already conducted due diligence on Corus and that a deal would be announced within days.

The combination would create one of largest steel companies in the world, about the size of U.S. Steel, and could further accelerate takeovers and mergers in an industry that is consolidating fast to keep up with the largest player, the newly created Arcelor Mittal.

Indian steel companies are under pressure to expand abroad. China recently became the largest steel exporting area in the world, leap-frogging Japan, Europe and Russia in the first half of this year, according to ISSB, a London-based consultancy.

Indian steel exports have "suffered from losing most of their trade with China," ISSB said in a recent report.

Corus, which has annual sales of £9 billion, produces carbon steel products for industries from autos to construction, and makes about 80 percent of its sales in Europe. The company has said that finding low-cost steel production is a goal.

Tata Steel, part of the fast-growing conglomerate Tata Group, manufactures some of the lowest-cost steel in the world through sites in Southeast Asia.

<b><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>The deal is unusual because Tata Steel is a small fraction of the size of Corus : the Indian company's production capacity is 3.1 million tons a year, compared with Corus's 21.4 million.</span></b>

Corus investors, anticipating a buyout, drove the company's stock price as high as 506.12 pence in recent days. The shares closed Tuesday in London at 479 pence a share, well above the offer price, as investors hoped for a richer bid.

"The market will always be disappointed when there is not a premium," said Mark Lovett, an equities fund manager for RCM, which owns Corus shares.

The offer values Corus at $450 per ton of capacity, said Kuni Chen of Bank of America. Other recent steel transactions have been in the $500 to $1,000 range, he said. Chen said that the strategy for the combination was sound and that potential synergies could come from Tata's access to iron ore and the company's manufacturing practices.

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->

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