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Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 06-25-2010
Religious Extremists Will Inherit the Earth
by John Derbyshire on June 22, 2010
Did you know that Osama bin Laden has twenty-five children? And that his Dad had fifty-four? (Osama seems to be number 17.) Bin Laden Sr. was careful never to have more than four wives at a time, though, divorcing older wives in order to marry younger ones, thus staying within the proper Koranic bounds. Like his son, he was a pious man, his great worldly success notwithstanding.
Fifty-four kids! Piety will do that for ya. It is a commonplace observation that religious populations are more fecund than irreligious ones: and that within religions, it is the most devout and most fundamentalist subgroups that have the highest fertility. A lot of us have been wondering how the demographic consequences of all that will play out across the coming decades. Will secularization and attrition contain the swelling numbers of the devout? Or will the religious inherit the earth?
Eric Kaufmannââ¬â¢s new book, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, explores the issue. Because Kaufmann is a British academic, and his book has so far been published only over there, it follows British ââ¬Åshallââ¬Â usage rather than American ââ¬Åwill,ââ¬Â posing in its title the question Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?
Kaufmann got my attention with a previous book, The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America. There he explored the ââ¬Ådual consciousnessââ¬Â of Americansââ¬âthe tension between our awareness of ourselves as an originally Anglo-Protestant ethny (with some admixtures of course) and the Enlightenment universalist humanism of our founding documents. Kaufmann deftly describes how, through the middle decades of the 20th century, that tension was resolved at last by a repudiation of ethnic American-ness. Americans in their private lives embraced expressive individualism, while political and educational elites promulgated the doctrine that ours is a ââ¬Åproposition nationââ¬Â open to all ethnies.
That repudiation was followed by the logically consequent triumphs of multiculturalism, affirmative action, mass Third World immigration, romantic xenophilia, and other manifestations of Euro-ethnic self-negation.
(Kevin MacDonald, the Judaism-as-a-group-evolutionary-strategy guy, took on Rise and Fall on VDARE.com last year. MacDonaldââ¬â¢s view is that Anglo-Protestant America did not commit suicide, as Kaufmann claims, but was murdered by you-know-who. Kaufmann made a spirited reply which in my opinion gets the better of the argument. For my American Conservative review of MacDonaldââ¬â¢s Culture of Critique, see here.)
ââ¬ÅThe acute conflicts will in any case be not between Muslim and Christian, Jew and Arab, or religious and secular. They will be between the intensely devout on the one hand, and the nominally religious or irreligious on the other.ââ¬Â
Kaufmann brings the same good analytical sensibility to his new book. He addresses the title question region by region: the U.S.A., Islamia, Europe, Israel. There is not much good news for secularists, nor even for liberal and moderate believers. Secularism is at present advancing steadily in the U.S.A., for example, but mostly at the expense of moderate congregations with birth rates close to those of the secular. Neither group is anything like demographically competitive with fundamentalist Protestant sects like the Quiverfull movement.
In the Gospel Community Church of Coxsackie, New York, the pastor has eight children, the assistant pastor eleven and parishioner Wendy Dufkin, to take just one example, thirteen.
Not quite up to bin Laden standards, but impressive none the less. And as newer groups like this establish themselves, older ones like the Amish and Mormons maintain their demographic vitality and low rates of attrition.
So it is elsewhere. Israel was, at its founding, quite aggressively secular, the intensely religious Haredim a mere trace elementââ¬âone, furthermore, that regarded Zionism as a form of idolatry.
The founders of the new Jewish state considered the Haredim a fading relic, but they worried that anti-Zionist Haredi agitators would sway the Great Powers towards the Arab sideââ¬Â¦
Hence the many civic exemptions and privileges enjoyed by the Haredim. They were a mere relic, their numbers smallââ¬âwhat did it matter if (for example) they were exempted from military service? As late as 1977, religious deferments numbered just 800. In 2007 they were 55,000ââ¬âone in nine of the eligible age cohort. The social and political strains caused by swelling Haredim numbers are reshaping Israel. That the Haredim are easily out-breeding Israeli Arabs is a point in their favor, from the point of view of secular Israelis, but a small one.
One piece of good news is that the myth of ââ¬ÅEurabiaââ¬Âââ¬âa Europe with Muslim majorities by mid-centuryââ¬âis not supported by rigorous demographic analysis. ââ¬ÅMost large Western European countries will be between 10 and 15 percent Muslim in 2050, though Sweden may approach 20-25 percent.ââ¬Â Bad enough, but not as dire as the predictions of the Eurabia propagandists. Even this forecast assumes that current rates of immigration will continue; but the recent electoral advance of Geert Wildersââ¬â¢ party in the Netherlands throws that assumption into question, pushing the Eurabia specter even further away.
Kaufmannââ¬â¢s book makes clear that the acute conflicts will in any case be not between Muslim and Christian, Jew and Arab, or religious and secular. They will be between the intensely devout on the one hand, with their Total Fertility Rates of four point something or five point something, and the nominally religious or irreligious on the other, with TFRs of one point something.
The secular-Jewish Kaufmann does not believe that fundamentalism can be stopped. His answer to the title question is yes, the religious shall inherit the earth. What an astonishing development in human affairs! Cultural historian A.N. Wilson (Godââ¬â¢s Funeral, The Victorians) has pointed out that if we could transport an educated mid-19th-century European to our own time, nothing would astonish him more than the survival of religion.
Looking into the future, what is doubly astonishing, if Kaufmann is correct, is that the religion dominating the world of our grandchildren will not be the subtle intellectualism of Christian seminariesââ¬âof a Tillich, a Niebuhr, a Küng. It will be the literalist-fundamentalist obscurantism of Muslim Salafis, Jewish ââ¬ÅUltras,ââ¬Â Young Earth Creationists, and Mormon splinter sects. In a world dominated by these closed-minded babblers, what place will there be for literature, science, free inquiry, or freedom of any kind?
God help us! Though of course, if fanatical devotion is what He wants, heââ¬â¢s more likely to help them.
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 06-27-2010
Percentage of jewish births in Israel
Muslim breeding defeated by Jewish orthodox counter breeding
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tyART8BVJyg/SjIzAKO3kUI/AAAAAAAAADQ/zVFWDhbwNYU/s1600-h/aslan+one.png
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 07-09-2010
"Israelââ¬â¢s Future is Young: Jewish Birthrate Up, Muslim Rate Down"
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/133460
"Demographic Revolution: Jewish, Arab Growth Equal in Jerusalem"
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/137466
"Demographic Trend in Israelââ¬â¢s Favor"
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/news.aspx/137790
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - agnivayu - 07-09-2010
[quote name='G.Subramaniam' date='27 June 2010 - 10:04 PM' timestamp='1277655992' post='107201']
Percentage of jewish births in Israel
Muslim breeding defeated by Jewish orthodox counter breeding
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tyART8BVJyg/SjIzAKO3kUI/AAAAAAAAADQ/zVFWDhbwNYU/s1600-h/aslan+one.png
[/quote]
A great example for Hindus to follow. Per the latest CIA stats:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html?countryName=India&countryCode=in®ionCode=sas&rank=90#in
India: 1.38%
Pakistan: 1.51%
Bangladesh: 1.27%
China: 0.49%
Can we assume Indian muslims breed at the Pakistani rate of 1.51%?
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 07-10-2010
[quote name='agnivayu' date='09 July 2010 - 09:40 AM' timestamp='1278648160' post='107377']
A great example for Hindus to follow. Per the latest CIA stats:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html?countryName=India&countryCode=in®ionCode=sas&rank=90#in
India: 1.38%
Pakistan: 1.51%
Bangladesh: 1.27%
China: 0.49%
Can we assume Indian muslims breed at the Pakistani rate of 1.51%?
[/quote]
From above URL, Pak 2010 fertility = 3.3
From NFHS-2005, Indian muslim fertility = 3.1, now must be 2.9
I am slowly turning hopeful
We have to look at entire south asian muslim fertility
BD muslims are now below Indian Hindus
Pak fertility was 6 in 1990, now 3.3, what seems to be happening in Pak is that due to poverty, births are falling
Pak fertility has fallen faster than I hoped for
Now if Indian Hindus can squeeze out 3 kids, all will be OK
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - agnivayu - 07-11-2010
[quote name='G.Subramaniam' date='10 July 2010 - 11:37 AM' timestamp='1278741564' post='107388']
From above URL, Pak 2010 fertility = 3.3
From NFHS-2005, Indian muslim fertility = 3.1, now must be 2.9
I am slowly turning hopeful
We have to look at entire south asian muslim fertility
BD muslims are now below Indian Hindus
Pak fertility was 6 in 1990, now 3.3, what seems to be happening in Pak is that due to poverty, births are falling
Pak fertility has fallen faster than I hoped for
Now if Indian Hindus can squeeze out 3 kids, all will be OK
[/quote]
I agree, Hindus need to become 90% of India. Do you know what the Christian Birth rates are in India. I assume they are lower than Hindus and that their % increases are primarily due to conversion. It's also good news that only SC's/ST's (and only a section of them) convert to Christianity, which means the pool they can choose from is only 20% of India?, so max Christian % in a worst case scenario would be 10%?
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 07-21-2010
[quote name='agnivayu' date='11 July 2010 - 08:11 PM' timestamp='1278858809' post='107402']
I agree, Hindus need to become 90% of India. Do you know what the Christian Birth rates are in India. I assume they are lower than Hindus and that their % increases are primarily due to conversion. It's also good news that only SC's/ST's (and only a section of them) convert to Christianity, which means the pool they can choose from is only 20% of India?, so max Christian % in a worst case scenario would be 10%?
[/quote]
Lots of OBC castes. YSR etc are xtians
Even Sindhi merchants in Mumbai are converting
Never let your guard down on EJ
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 07-21-2010
Rediff ( Plenty of room to breed 5 Hindus each )
Singapore is the most crowded country in the world, according to the Overpopulation Index.
The index also finds that countries like United Kingdom, Netherlands and Switzerland are more crowded than India or China, which are the most populous nations on earth.
The index was published by the Optimum Population Trust which has been campaigning for measures to stem the population growth in the United Kingdom. The trust has also sought strict measures to curb the inflow of immigrants into Britain
Prev Next
The Jewish nation of Israel is the second most crowded country in the world.
Surprisingly, there are nine Middle Eastern countries and eight European ones in the top 20 most overpopulated nations in the index.
Third world nations like Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Russia, which have faced a virtual population explosion, do not find a mention in the list.
Though it is the second most populous country in the world, India is ranked 33rd by the index.
---
Family Planning, a fraud on Hindus
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-06-2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindus_by_district_in_India
Also has data for under 6 %
This has already happened and will reflect eventual census
Have 5 or be islamised
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-07-2010
In above URL, the Hindu % overall ( reflecting current 2001 census ) and Hindu % Under 6 ( reflecting 2051 census ) is given
In most cases, the Hindu % under 6 is less than current %, reflecting muslim over-breeding
But in closer analysis something sinister pops up
The drop is about 2% in most cases, but in Assam, Kerala and WB, the drop is about 9%
Next, even in these states, the drop is concentrated in some districts
and not others
More specifically the drop occurs in muslim concentration districts
Meaning , Hindus suddenly seem to lose fertility in muslim concentration districts
So why are Hindus in muslim concentration districts, suddenly not having babies
The answer seems to be love jihad etc
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-07-2010
JK, 2001 = 29.6%, 2051 = 26.9%
Doda = 41.5% to 38.7%
Udhampur = 73% to 68.4%
Punch = 5.2% to 3% ( drop by half )
Rajouri = 37.8% to 30.6% , love jihad ??
Jammu = 86% to 85.1%
Kathua = 89.8% to 87.7%
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-07-2010
Uttaranchal, from 85% in 2001 to 81.5% in 2051
However, in Haridwar District from 65.3% to 57.4% ???
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-07-2010
Haryana, from 88.2% in 2001 to 86.2% in 2051
But in Gurgaon
From 61.8% to 49.5% ???
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-07-2010
Rajasthan from 88.75% to 88.6%
Alwar, 84.7 to 80.7%
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-09-2010
Delhi, from 82% to 80.3%
but
North east Delhi from 69.7 to 65.1
Central Delhi, from 65.5 to 60.3%
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-09-2010
Uttar Pradesh
from 80.6 to 79%
But
Saharanpur from 59.5 to 53.1%
Muzaffarnagar from 60.7 to 52.8%
Bijnor from 56.4 to 52%
Meerut from 65.5 to 58.7%
Baghpat from 73.4% to 63.6%
Ghaziabad from 74.8 to 68%
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-14-2010
Tripura from 85.6% to 81.3%
But North Tripura from 75.7% to 69.9%
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 08-14-2010
Assam from 64.9% to 55.8%
Kokrajar from 65.6 to 59.3%
Dhubri from 24.7% to 16.5%
Goalpara from 38.2% to 28.7%
Bongaigaon from 59.2% to 47.7%
Barpeta from 40.2% to 28.2%
Kamrup from 72.8% to 63.9%
Nalbari from 76.1% to 68.6%
Darrang from 57.7% to 47.7%
Marigaon from 52.2% to 42.1%
Nagaon from 47.8% to 35.4%
Sonitpur from 76.6% to 70%
Lakhimpur from 79.1% to 72.7%
Cachar from 61.4% to 54.2%
Karimganj from 46.7% to 35.9%
Halaikandi from 41.1% to 33.8%
Whereas in other Assam districts, the Hindu % does not show a drop
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - G.Subramaniam - 09-09-2010
Islam will sooner or later dominate Europe: Italian priest
Sep 8, 2010
LONDON: Christians in Europe must have more children or else the continent would become Islamised, said a Vatican official who predicted that Islam would "sooner rather than later conquer the majority in Europe".
Italian Father Piero Gheddo said the poor birth rate among Europeans coupled with waves of Muslim immigrants could lead to Europe getting dominated by Islam.
"The challenge must be taken seriously," Daily Telegraph Tuesday quoted Father Gheddo of the Vatican's Pontifical Institute for Foreign Missions as saying.
Demographic Politics And Population Growth - 2 - Guest - 09-09-2010
GS, Are there any efforts by VHP etc to increase awareness to increase Hindu birth rate. I have not seen any such campaign mentioned in the media.
There has to be mass awareness created by VHP, RSS etc otherwise we may not get the desired results.