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Nuclear Thread - 4 - G.Subramaniam - 09-08-2008
Arun_S, one of the forum moderators on Bharat-rakshak and the resident expert on Indian nukes, was originally very opposed to deal
He is now OK with the nuke deal
IMHO, I trust his judgement on this matter and no longer worry about this
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Bodhi - 09-08-2008
Forget about the Deal or No-Deal. I am questioning the motives of the promotors behind it. The whole affair is another case study of how Indian Media is controlled and manipulated by certain players as a monopoly. The entire hullabolo on the Historic Deal does not even include a discussion on the motives of why this Deal is priority Number One for Madam and her Puppet. Clearly, there is no popularistic political mileage out of it, none whatsoever apparently, so as to stake even the Govt. at risk! So, where is that zeal coming from? One possibility, which would appeal to the placid idiots, is that both of them have India and her Strategic National Interests and Energy Security on top of their mind. But we know these folks well enough. Weren't it these very thugs and their party that had been on the payroll of Saddam Hussein and KGB, and have shown ample evidence of being ready to be bought. Likewise media which is otherwise trigger-happy, has not even asked hard questions on why Moron had lied on the Tests front. All you see is the third-rate interview of ex-Prez Kalam with his half-sleepy answers as posted by ravish above. "otherwise they'll say goodbye, and we'll say goodbye" !!! -- how pure infantile is that! And this is DRDL's ex-chief talking? And this is the best ravish has got in the defence, and that is the kind of coverage media has done. intellectually bankrupt senile idiot morons! Where are the answers to the hard questions that Arun Shourie has been asking? But like bhartR^ihari says there are some ignorants and there are some fools. but looks like there are also some utterly stupid morons.
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-08-2008
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/sep/08guest1.htm
India's ever-shifting nuclear goalpost
Brahma Chellaney
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-08-2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/washingt....html?ref=world
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> The Bush administration plans today to formally withdraw from Congressional consideration an agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia. The step is the most meaningful show of displeasure the United States has yet made over Russiaâs military action in Georgia.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Nuclear Thread - 4 - ravish - 09-08-2008
The Indian Express reports
Quote
US says next aim is to make India 'full partner' in NSG
Agencies
Posted online: Monday, September 08, 2008 at 1614 hrs IST
New Delhi, September 8:
After working "tirelessly" for securing a waiver for India from the Nuclear Suppliers' Group for trade in the atomic energy, the US on Monday said its next aim is to make New Delhi a "full partner" in the nuclear cartel.
"President Bush, Secretary of State and the entire administration had worked tirelessly to ensure that India reached the stage where it has today in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)," Assistant Secretary (Market Access and Compliance) in the US Department of Commerce David Bohigian said in New Delhi.
Bohigian said Bush and the Congress administration would continue to work to "make India a full partner in this group (NSG) which we think is crucial... from a strategic, political, economic and energy standpoint".
He said the US administration would be working through the Congress and the Hyde Act to ensure 100 billion dollar market for American companies.
"The next step for the US (administration) will be working through the Congress and the Hyde Act and make sure that business opportunities will enable the US firms to stay in what is estimated to be 100 billion dollar market," the official said at a CII seminar.
He said atomic energy would play an important role for economic development of India. "When you look at the energy map of 2020 and beyond, certainly nuclear has a key role to play in India's growth which we welcome," Bohigian said.
According to industry body Assocham, about 40 companies, including Videocon, have already started talks with foreign firms to set up nuclear power plants envisaging a total investment of about Rs 2,00,000 crore in India.
"We have asked the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for amendments in the legislations to facilitate the entry of private sector in generation of nuclear power," Videocon group head Venugopal Dhoot said.
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Another interesting report from the same paper . Here the author appears to be quite ignorent of the complete sell out and disaster on the part of India. Please read on:-
Quote
Isnât just about n-trade, itâs about a rising India
C Raja Mohan
Posted online: Sunday, September 07, 2008 at 0119 hrs IST
Singapore, Septmeber 6
In lifting the three-and-a-half-decade-old nuclear blockade against India, the international community has come to terms with a rising India and its geopolitical consequences for the global order in the 21st century. That it was a wrenching decision for the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group and demanded unprecedented lobbying from the highest political levels in Washington and New Delhi, underlined the extraordinary scope of the issues at play.
Over the last three years, as India endlessly argued with itself the entry-price into the elite nuclear club that was outlined in the July 2005 agreement with the United States, its chattering classes refused to appreciate the kind of strategic readjustment that was being asked of the rest of the world â recognise Indiaâs nuclear exceptionalism, discard the notion of nuclear parity between New Delhi and Islamabad, and accept Indiaâs strategic equivalence with China.
All governments in New Delhi in recent decades have pursued these seemingly impossible national objectives. It is the Manmohan Singh government, however, that finally provided the long-awaited geopolitical breakthrough for India in partnership with US President George W. Bush.
That it took a lot of arm-twisting to silence the churlish white knights of the West and stop China from throwing a monkey wrench into the works highlighted the difficulties in getting the NSG to accept a change of nuclear rules painstakingly crafted over the last four decades, for India, and India alone.
The NSG was also asked to do this at a time when non-proliferation has emerged as one of the principal international security concerns and rules on high-technology transfers are being tightened against other countries.
Since its first atomic test, Pokharan I, in May 1974, India has been trapped in a no-manâs land or a ânuclear trishankuâ under international law. India was neither a weapon-state nor a non-nuclear weapon state. India could either keep its nuclear weapons or develop a substantive atomic power programme. It could not have both. The NSG waiver now allows India to have its weapons programme and expand its civilian atomic power generation in cooperation with the rest of the world.
That there was little applause in the room in Vienna when the consensus was finally forced on the NSG is a reminder that the group, set up in 1975 to counter the systemic challenge posed by Pokharan I, had to reverse itself today to accept the reality of Indiaâs nuclear weapons programme and agree to renew high technology civilian cooperation with India.
The international debate over the Indo-US nuclear deal was only in part about non-proliferation. More fundamentally it was about Indiaâs rise. Without a recognition of Indiaâs emergence as a great power, there was no prospect that the international system would have modified the nuclear regime in New Delhiâs favour.
Only a decade ago, in the wake of the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in May 1998, the United Nations Security Council, in a unanimous resolution No 1172 in June 1998, demanded that the two nations sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and end their nuclear and missile programmes. The history of international relations tells us that great powers agree to change the existing security norms only when they have to accommodate a rising power. The NSG decision to turn the solid international consensus in 1998 against New Delhiâs strategic programmes on its head is a bow to Indiaâs rise.
The Bush Administration was the first to recognise Indiaâs new strategic importance and the need to change the nuclear rules. It was not easy, however, selling the proposition to the powerful American non-proliferation lobby, the purists in the West and China.
Although it was small nations that raised all the noise, China had most to lose if the world began to differentiate between New Delhi and Islamabad in the nuclear domain. After all, without Chinese assistance, Pakistan could never have built a credible nuclear and missile programme. So Beijing had every reason to frown upon the international acknowledgement of Indiaâs nuclear parity with China. Not surprisingly, it showed its hand at the very last minute in the NSG. While China always saw the Indo-US nuclear deal in terms of its consequences for the Asian balance of power, it had to fall in line.
Itâs not entirely a coincidence that it was Manmohan Singh who, in the early 1990s, ended Indiaâs international economic isolation and itâs Manmohan Singh who has now reconfigured Indiaâs geopolictical standing. Thanks to the economic reforms which rebuilt Indiaâs economic sinews, India has now successfully repositioned itself in the global order.
(Contributing Editor C. Raja Mohan is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and the author of the book, Impossible Allies: Nuclear India, United States and the Global Order, that traces Indiaâs recent atomic diplomacy and its efforts to build a strategic partnership with the US.)
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Nuclear Thread - 4 - ravish - 09-08-2008
At last the Chinese appear to have also got influenced by the propaganda of Congress and have softened their stand on the nuclear deal:- reports TOI
Quote
BEIJING: After an unexpected opposition in Vienna, China has welcomed the NSG granting a waiver to India to engage in nuclear commerce. China, however, has said that this cooperation should be "conducive" to safeguarding the global nuclear non-proliferation efforts. ( Watch )
"China hopes that the decision will contribute to peaceful use of nuclear energy and international cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
China had joined hold-out countries like Austria, New Zealand and Ireland which were insisting on incorporating their concerns in the waiver but later relented after the US pushed hard to get the nod of the 45-member nuclear cartel.
"China believes that all countries are entitled to make peaceful use of nuclear energy, and conduct international cooperation in this regard," the statement said.
"Meanwhile, relevant cooperation should be conducive to safeguarding the integrity and efficacy of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime," the statement said.
Beijing's statement is being seen as a move to assuage New Delhi which has conveyed its unhappiness over the Chinese position at the NSG meet.
The tough negotiations at Vienna went down to the wire after China, which had sounded positive in the run-up to the NSG meeting, took a different line creating problems for a consensus on the waiver.
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Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-08-2008
<b>Bad news </b>
<i>A lying PM heads a shameless government, writes N.V.Subramanian.</i>
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-08-2008
Biggest problem with shame of India, Manmohan Singh, appointed PM not elected. He had fully converted India into Communist country, where states hides facts from citizens and Government machinery , I mean Babus and media work as Gestapo.
Why Shame of India, Manmohan Singh failed to come up clear with Indian?
How much bribes these people have received should be brought out?
Why there is no dialogue with citizens of India? Why Shame of India and his boss are deciding what helps then and screw India for a long time?
Everyone knows Toilet of India(TOI) and anti India Express is bought by external entities and his former editor works in PMO and head of Gestapo of Shame of India.
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-09-2008
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Greenbacks are driving force for US behind deal </b>
Pioneer.com
Shobori Ganguli | New Delhi
While the Bush Administration's "secret letter" establishes that the Manmohan Singh Government has indeed fudged some crucial aspects of the India-US nuclear deal, it also exposes Washington's real motive in pushing the deal with the NSG with the fervour it has so far displayed.
Outlining the "likely economic benefits of this partnership", the letter mentions how "this initiative will yield important economic benefits to the private sector in the United States". What the Bush Administration, therefore, hopes to achieve is to bolster the American private sector with the Indian tax-payers' money.
<b>The letter states that since India will "significantly" increase the number of its current 15 thermal power reactors, "this ramp-up in demand for civil nuclear reactors, technology, fuel and support services holds the promise of opening new markets for the United States". </b>Again, no mention of any "benefits" falling into the Indian kitty.
Citing Indian officials, the letter states, India plans to import at least eight 1,000-megawatt power reactors by 2012, apart from additional reactors in the years ahead. What this effectively means, as put down in the letter, is that "if American vendors win just two of these reactor contracts, it could add 3,000-5,000 new direct jobs and 10,000-15,000 indirect jobs in the United States
The Bush Administration claims that the "Indian Government has conveyed to us its commitment to enable full US participation in India's civil nuclear growth and modernisation". To this end, nuclear-related US firms like General Electric and Westinghouse participated in a business delegation in December 2006.
While India will patiently wait to gain access to some magical "nuclear energy" panacea for its power woes in some distance future, the deal will concretely and immediately enhance American industry's status. "Participation in India's market will help make the American nuclear power industry globally competitive, thereby benefiting our own domestic nuclear power sector," the letter underlines.
As India willingly becomes a great catalyst for this change in America, the US companies would be laughing their way to the bank. "This initiative will permit the US companies to enter the lucrative and growing Indian market - something they are currently prohibited from doing," asserts the letter.
India will then become a laboratory and a business model to help American companies tap markets elsewhere. "Access to Indian nuclear infrastructure will allow US companies to build reactors more competitively here and in the rest of the world - not just India," claims the Bush Administration.Â
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Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-09-2008
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Anatomy of servitude </b>
Pioneer.com
Chandan Mitra
Either Manmohan Singh believes Indians are the most gullible people on the face of the Earth or his spin doctors have convinced him that repeating a lie a thousand times over will metamorphose into truth. There can be no other explanations for the orchestrated claim of India having wrested a "historic" deal at Vienna, a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group that will allegedly end the country's 34-year-long nuclear isolation, permit unrestricted flow of dual-use technology and also enable import of unlimited quantities of uranium to fuel nuclear power plants. If the Congress Party's propagandists are to be believed, all this will happen even as India retains its right to test nuclear devices and develop its strategic weapons programme. <b>Admittedly, the Government has succeeded in propagating this package of lies through servile sections of the media, thereby sowing seeds of doubt even among those who are convinced that India has supinely pawned its nuclear sovereignty at the altar of non-proliferation Ayatollahs. In return for surrendering its claim to being a nuclear weapons state, all the country has been granted are a few paltry tonnes of uranium, which can be used only under strict international supervision</b>.
For more than three decades, successive Prime Ministers -- Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee -- held the banner of national esteem high, refusing to sign the highly discriminatory Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. They rightly argued that the treaties legitimised the division of countries into nuclear haves and have-nots. Pokhran I in 1974 and, more pertinently, the series of tests conducted during Pokhran II in 1998 decisively proclaimed India's arrival on the world stage as an independent, self-respecting nuclear weapons state. Every Indian walked a few inches taller after May 11, 1998, and the world started to see India in a new light. The nuclear haves were obviously shaken by this development. And thereafter began a long-drawn conspiracy to de-fang India by tempting us with dubious offers of technology. The aim was to make India voluntarily accept the status of a nuclear have-not, get New Delhi to relinquish its Big Power ambitions and revert to nuclear mendicancy. Tragically, the conspiracy has triumphed. India has willingly abandoned its dream; it has decided to settle for second-class status in the world's nuclear club.
The Hyde Act, which was sprung quietly on India in the run-up to the Washington-shepherded Indo-US deal, was bad enough as it contained provisions such as intrusive inspection of nuclear facilities and an annual certificate by the US President that India was a "good boy". Does the occupant of the White House do that with China, Russia, France or Britain? Or even Israel, for that matter? Will he dare do that with "stalwart non-NATO ally" Pakistan, surreptitiously supplied fuel and missile technology by China's surrogate North Korea? As if that patronising grip on our sovereignty was not enough, the NSG, taking an even tougher line, has now imposed multilateral conditionalities, whose slightest violation will invite a stringent response. What that response is apparent from the sanctions imposed on NPT-signatory Iran as soon as it decided to pursue enhanced nuclear ambitions. India is now at the mercy not only of the US but the entire bunch of NSG members whose antipathy was more than apparent during last week's meeting. We shall also be prevented from developing state-of-the-art missile technology. As everybody knows, missiles without nuclear warheads are equivalent to mechanical toys that pre-teens play with. In effect we have agreed to cap our nuclear weapons programme. This is the logical outcome of the NSG-imposed ban on further testing, which India acquiesced in by way of Pranab Mukherjee's Friday statement permanently extending the unilateral moratorium announced by Vajpayee after Pokhran II.
<b>In the aftermath of the NSG meet, India's international stature is in tatters</b>. It was sad to see officials and Ministers virtually grovelling before junior European bureaucrats, shifting and diluting self-declared "red lines" volubly asserted by the Indian Establishment prior to the meeting. The "clean and unconditional" waiver India insisted on getting from NSG was reduced to a joke as New Delhi, in a display of fawning desperation, agreed to a revised draft with added conditions and also appended Mukherjee's statement to the final document. At least our new-found American mentors cannot be accused of hiding the truth. As the leaked Berman letter showed, Manmohan Singh knew all along that the US will not help maintain uninterrupted fuel supplies if India happened to test a device again. But the Prime Minister willfully misled the nation, not adhering to his solemn pronouncements in Parliament.
The nuclear deal has become a saga of deceit and perjury. The world must be wondering what drove the UPA regime to such abject desperation. Even before the murky deal becomes law, India's national prestige has been irreparably compromised. We believed the 21st Century would be India's Century. Having throttled this dream of a billion people and a resurgent nation, <b>the Government is making a mockery of whatever is left of India's honour by claiming the deal marks a "new dawn". Can the forces of deceit and darkness ever herald the dawn, any kind of dawn?</b>
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Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-09-2008
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Bogus claims of N-power</b>
Pioneer.com
Rajeev Srinivasan
The much-touted 'exemption' granted to India by the Nuclear Suppliers Group is no victory but a blow to our status as a nuclear weapons state. The propaganda about nuclear power must be discounted because facts do not substantiate the UPA Government's claims
There have been hosannas and hallelujahs aplenty about the fact that the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group has decided to provide a waiver of sorts to India. The fine print is yet to be deciphered, but already the usual suspects are taking credit for having brought about "energy security in our time".
One is reminded of Neville Chamberlain returning to the UK from a conclave in Munich, where he had participated in appeasing Germany by giving away the Sudetenland. Chamberlain said: "My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time... Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."
He said this on September 30, 1938. Alas for him, on September 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland, and two days later, Britain declared war on Germany. Famous last words, indeed.
But one is being unfair to poor Chamberlain. He honestly believed that he had achieved something for his country. Not so with the bigwigs of the UPA. It has been abundantly clear for a very long time that the so-called India-US nuclear deal stinks to high heaven, and that interests wholly unrelated to India's energy needs are driving it. The UPA Government knows what it is getting into, and it has been lying continuously to the people.
It would be unseemly for me to name names, but circumstantial evidence suggests that Mr Jaswant Singh was not far off the mark when he talked about 'American moles' high up in the Government.
The confidential letter from the US State Department to the House Foreign Relations Committee, as publicised by Representative Howard Berman, is refreshingly candid about the real facts behind the deal: To use pithy Americanisms, the Indians are being taken to the cleaners. Being sold a bill of goods. Led to the slaughter. Being totally sold snake-oil, with the active connivance of their leaders.
Perhaps the apt historical analogy is not Chamberlain, but the East India Company. Or better yet, the capitulation to China over Tibet. India gave away its substantial treaty rights in Tibet to China in return for vague promises of 'brotherhood'. Here India is giving away its hard-won nuclear deterrent, the one thing that prevents the Chinese from running rampant in Asia, in return for honeyed words from the Americans about 'strategic partnership'!
One exaggerates, of course. There must be more. Jawaharlal Nehru, being naïve, believed in the bhai-bhai thing with China. But today's leaders are hard-boiled, and are doing this for other, very good reasons. What these reasons are, we shall never know, notwithstanding the Right to Information Act. The Government of India is extremely good at obfuscation.
What is being celebrated as a 'great victory' (over what one is not sure) at the NSG is a little puzzling. One hates to be the little boy who asked about the Emperor's new clothes, but what exactly is India getting? After all the huffing and puffing, India has now been granted the privilege of spending enormous amounts of money -- billions of dollars -- to buy nuclear fission reactors and uranium. This is a good thing? Let us remember that the NSG was set up in 1974 as a secret cabal to punish India for its first nuclear test.
There is an old proverb in Malayalam about spending good money to buy a dog that then proceeds to bite you. India is now going to spend at least $ 50 billion to buy all these dangerous fission reactors from the US and France and Japan, only to be left with the possibility of Australians and Americans holding the proverbial Damocles' Sword of disruptions in uranium supplies over us. Is this better than being held hostage by OPEC over fossil fuels?
And if all goes well, India will be left holding the bag for mountains of extremely dangerous and long-lived (10,000 years, say) radioactive waste, which we will not be allowed to reprocess lest we extract something useful out of it. Of course all the reactors and the radioactive waste must be making our friendly neighbourhood terrorists rub their hands with glee in anticipation. Did one mention something about giving someone a stick to beat you with?
It should be obvious by now that India has been coerced into de facto accession to the NPT, the CTBT, the FMCT, and all the other alphabet-soup treaties that were set up to keep India muzzled. America's non-proliferation ayatollahs, barring a last-minute reprieve like the US Congress voting down the 123 Agreement, have accomplished 'cap, rollback, and eliminate'.
The letter leaked by Mr Berman, as well as the fact that Article 2 of the 123 Agreement explicitly states that "national laws" (read: the Hyde Amendment, with the clever little Barack Obama Amendment -- yes, Virginia, he did get his fingers into this pie too) govern the 123 Agreement, clarify that India is at the mercy of any US Administration that sees fit to unilaterally abrogate the thing. Remember Tarapur? There was a similar little artifice of domestic legislation that was used by the US to weasel out of a binding international treaty. The 123 Agreement is really not worth the paper it's written on.
Let us note that of the other hold-outs to the NPT, nobody is putting any pressure on Israel to sign anything, and they are getting all the fuel they need from sugar-daddy America; and Pakistan gets everything, including their bombs and their missiles, from their main squeeze, China, while minor sugar-daddy America beams indulgently.
The sad part is that none of this does a thing for the only issue that matters -- India's energy security. While the rest of the world has, rightly, looked upon the nuclear deal as a non-proliferation issue, the propaganda experts and spin-meisters in India have sold it to the gullible public as a way of gaining energy independence. But this is not true at all.
Here are a few facts about energy, based on details provided by, among others, the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy in Bangalore.
<b>Present world energy use: 15 terawatt-years per year</b>
Potential availability of energy from different sources per year (in terawatt-years) [Source: Harvard]
<b>Oil and Gas: 3,000
Coal: 5,000
Uranium (conventional reactors): 2,000
Uranium (breeder reactors): 2,000,000
Solar: 30,000</b>
Do note that last two numbers. One, solar energy accessible per year far exceeds the sum total energy available from fossil fuels and uranium fission reactors in toto, that is, by completely exhausting all known oil and gas and uranium. Two, breeder reactors can leverage thorium (turned into uranium-233) endlessly by creating more fuel than is exhausted, but the technology will take time.
<b>Now, take a look at the amount of energy India generates, and how it is consumed</b> [Source: CSTEP and Lawrence Livermore Labs]
<b>Total consumption: 5,721 billion kwh, of which:
Lost energy: 3,257 billion kwh
Useful energy: 2,364 billion kwh</b>
<b>Generation (billion kwh) is from:</b>
<i>Hydro: 84
Wind: 5
Solar: 0
Nuclear: 58
Bio-fuels: 1,682
Coal: 1,852
Natural Gas: 225
Petroleum: 1,645</i>
<b>Usage is by:</b>
<i>Unaccounted electricity: 99
Agriculture: 301
Residential: 1,511
Commercial: 132
Industrial: 1,548
Light Vehicles: 132
Heavy Vehicles: 330
Aircraft: 65
Railways: 43</i>
The data is for 2005. What is startling is the enormous amount of wasted energy: It is more than the amount of useful energy. Besides, unaccounted for electricity is almost the same as the amount of energy used by all air and railroad traffic in India. Thus, the very first thing that can pay huge dividends would be to get better accounting for energy use and to reduce wastage (as for example due to traffic congestion in cities).
<b>Consider the capital costs of various types of energy:</b> [Source: CSTEP]
<i>Natural Gas: $600/kW with 4-10 cents/kWh in fuel costs </i>
<b>Plus cost of pipelines and LNG terminals </b>
<i>Wind: $ 1,200/kW</i>
<b>Plus cost of transmission lines from windy regions</b>
<i>Hydro: n/a
Biomass: n/a
Coal: $ 1,135/kW and 4c/kWh in fuel costs
With CO2 clean-up: $ 2601/kW and 22c/kWh in fuel costs
Plus cost of railroads and other infrastructure
Solar Thermal: $ 4000/kW
Solar Photovoltaic: $ 6000/kW
Nuclear Fission: $ 3000/kW and 8c/kWh in fuel costs
Plus cost of radioactive waste disposal </i>
[Source: World Nuclear Association, The Economics of Nuclear Power]
It can be seen that the cost of nuclear power is very high, even if the costs of waste management are discounted: And these numbers are from the cheer-leaders of nuclear energy. In addition, there has to be a substantial risk premium for the fact that the raw material is in short supply and is under the control of a cartel. A 'uranium shock' can be far more painful than the recent 'oil shock' because it will simply mean the shuttering of a lot of the expensive plants acquired at extortionate prices.
All things considered, including the environmental impact and the carbon footprint, solar is the most sensible route for India. The capital costs for solar will come down significantly as new thin-film technology reduces the manufacturing cost, and conversion efficiency rises -- 40 per cent has been accomplished in the lab. Besides, if you look at the fully loaded cost, that is taking into account the gigantic public outlay already incurred for fossil fuels (as an example, there is a pipeline running 20 km out to sea at Cochin Refineries so that large tankers can deliver oil without coming close to shore), solar is currently not very overpriced.
And of course, you cannot beat the price of fuel: Free, no need to get any certificates from the NSG, available in plenty for at least 300 days of the year. If large solar farms are set up in a few places (they may be 10km x 10km in size, and surely this can be put up in arid areas like the Thar desert), then solar energy is likely to be attractive. Besides, there will be economies of scale in manufacturing once demand is seeded by subsidies and tax breaks. Large-scale solar plants are becoming a reality: two giant solar farms, totally 880 MW, have just been approved by Pacific Gas and Electric in California: this is a huge step considering the largest solar plant in the US now is just 14 MW.
In addition, there are technological breakthroughs just around the corner in solar energy, as venture money is flowing into alternative energy. If only India were to invest in solar research and subsidies the billions that the UPA wants to spend on imported white elephant fission technology, India will truly gain energy independence.
The entire nuclear deal is a red-herring and a diversion. It is a colossal blunder; and when this is coming at such an enormous cost -- loss of the independent nuclear deterrent and intrusive inspection of the nuclear setup, which happy proliferator China is not subject to -- this is perhaps the worst act any government has taken since independence. The UPA is subjecting India to colonialism. The beneficiaries are China, Pakistan, and the US.
This deal may well mark the tipping point that causes India to collapse: Without a nuclear deterrent, India is a sitting duck for Chinese blackmail including the proposed diversion of the Brahmaputra, for Pakistani-fomented insurrections, and Bangladeshi demographic invasion. India must be the very first large State in history that has consciously and voluntarily decided to dismantle itself.
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Nuclear Thread - 4 - acharya - 09-09-2008
<b>
Sonia hails N-pact, says Opposition misleading nation</b>
Bikaner-Deoli (PTI): Launching a scathing attack on the Opposition, Congress President Sonia Gandhi on Monday said it was misleading the country on the Indo-US nuclear deal which would immensely benefit India in meeting its energy needs.
The deal would not only make the country self-reliant in the power sector but would also enable it to march along with developed nations in the nuclear energy field, she told public meetings in Bikaner and Tonk districts of Rajasthan.
Lashing out at the Opposition, the UPA chairperson said it was misleading people that the nuke deal would have an adverse effect on the country.
On the contrary, the pact would benefit crores of people and make India self-sufficient in the power sphere, she told the gathering in Deoli town in Tonk district.
Gandhi said the Opposition had become an obstacle in development works undertaken by the UPA government at the Centre.
Addressing a public meeting after inaugurating the Barsingsar Lignite Mine and Thermal Power Power Station, some 30 kms from Bikaner, she said the Indo-US nuclear cooperation would help the country meet its future energy needs.
It would also put the country in the league of elite nations which dominate the atomic power sector, the Congress president said lauding Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's efforts in clinching the deal.
"Prime Minister's achievement on the Indo-US nuclear deal is historic," Gandhi told the gathering.
The Congress president said the first unit of 125-MW lignite power plant would be ready next year and would benefit at least five districts in Rajasthan.
Nuclear Thread - 4 - acharya - 09-09-2008
<b>Nothing prohibits India from carrying out N-tests: Sibal</b>
Chennai (PTI): The government on Monday said there is nothing in the waiver granted by Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that stops India from carrying out nuclear tests in future.
"The right to test is sovereign. Nobody can take it away from us. There is nothing in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) (waiver) that prohibits" India, Union Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal told reporters on the sidelines of the Golden Jubilee celebration of IIT, Madras, referring to the allegations by the BJP and Left parties.
Asked for his reaction to the reported remarks by US President George Bush that India would not go for nuclear tests, he said "we are not guided by the statements made by people around the world".
To a question about what would be the worst case scenario if fuel supplies were disrupted in the event of conducting the test, Sibal said "it is not as if the moment the 123 agreement is signed that all our reactors are put under safeguards. It doesn't happen that way.
"In the IAEA India-sepcific safeguards' agreement, we have a window from now to 2014, in which there are stages and in phases we will put the nuclear reactors under safeguards".
"If and when in the future any test is required to be done because of change in geopolitical situation, which is not an issue today, at that point of time we would have a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel. There is no problem of any disruption", he said.
Sibal said India would look at acquiring nuclear reactors and the required fuel after getting the clearances. "We will then enter into bilateral arrangements with various countries to satisfy those needs of fuel and build up strategic reserves."
Nuclear Thread - 4 - ramana - 09-09-2008
op-Ed from Deccan Chronicle, 9 sept., 2008
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->N-deal: Vienna done, now off to Washington
By Pran Chopra
Just a few days ago the American government lifted the veil on yet another corner of the complex behind-the-scenes nuclear negotiations between India and the United States.<b> What is being negotiated has been euphemistically labelled, for the benefit of the public, "civil nuclear cooperation". But as everyone knows, the subject can ramify into many aspects of Indiaâs entire nuclear programme, both civil and military, present and future.</b>
<b>Like the many earlier "disclosures" that have been made, generally by driblets, under intentional or voluntary or accidental "indiscretions", the latest has also been subjected to a thorough debate in and by the media, and the debate will go on until either country chooses, or both choose, to strike public postures which declare that the debate has ended in total agreement.</b>
Has it not so ended yet? It would be churlish, and probably wrong, to suggest that it has not. Therefore, oneâs first reaction must be, and is, to join wholeheartedly in the chorus of rejoicing over the drama played out, some of it in full public glare and some behind the scenes, over the "Sweet Deal in Vienna" to quote the banner headline in The Asian Age last Sunday. But the questions that raise their heads should also get such attention as they merit.
For example, <b>the doubt expressed last Sunday itself by a person so well disposed towards India as the former US ambassador to India, Robert Blackwill.</b> Despite the jubilation in Delhi in the past few days, in which probably he joins as well, he has reminded us that "the fate of the nuclear deal will be decided by the Democratic leadership which has to decide whether to suspend the 30-day waiting period" and, more crucially, "whether amendments can be brought âfrom the floorâ in both Houses of the (US) Congress".
<b>His words of caution are important for various reasons.</b> First, the Democrats are a lot less enthusiastic about the deal than the Republicans. Second, they have a stronger majority in Congress and the country. Third, it would be premature to assume that the deal has been "done", that it has become iron clad against all adverse amendments. <b>More than just curiosity will make people wonder what wrought this total change, virtually overnight, in the Indian scene around the emerging nuclear agreement.</b> Till about the morning of last Friday, one could doubt whether it would be possible for the two countries to reach an agreement which would be welcomed by the people of either country. By Saturday afternoon, the probable text of such an agreement was already in circulation. By Saturday evening, the hot subject under the searchlight was the how and why, not the whether, of the change, and <b>what role had been played by President Bush and, additionally, by France and Russia, and why these two countries had come to differ from their close neighbours on the Continent.</b>
It would be wrong to assume that since the deal has been pushed through by the US Executive, namely the President, it is protected against Congressional probing because of the difference between the respective jurisdictions of the President and Congress under the US constitutional system and practices. The contrary is more possible now because, while the deal has been pushed through the Executive and the Congress by a Republican dispensation, both institutions may soon be flying the Democratic flag. In this connection re-read Mr Blackwillâs quote above and the US stipulation quoted below. It was published a few days ago and is closely connected to the nuclear deal.
It requires that at "each plenary" session, presumably of the NSG countries, participating governments shall notify each other of "approved transfers to India⦠Participating governments are also invited to exchange information, including about their own bilateral agreements with India⦠(and to) consult through regular channels, including the consultative group and plenary, on matters connected with the implementation of this statement, taking into account relevant international commitments or bilateral agreements with India".
All this, taken with the directive to NSG to intensify dialogue with India, will leave few things connected with Indiaâs nuclear programme outside the purview of international observers. Also note that this stipulation has been spelt out while the Republicans are still in office in Washington. How much and in which direction the Democratic Party will pull the stipulation if, as is likely, it captures the White House?
<b>Of more immediate interest is what led to the transformation of the negotiating stance of the five main concerned powers in the last few days â the US and UK on one side, France and Russia on the other, and China too (except that it cancelled out its former stance with the last one it took in the concluding hours of last week)?</b>
The reason most cited for the success scored in Vienna was that external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee reasserted Indiaâs commitment to non-proliferation and to Indiaâs voluntary moratorium on testing. His intellectual powers are indeed great, and so is his persuasive style. Together they make him Indiaâs best negotiator. But he came most into the picture, and most effectively, in the concluding hours of the Vienna session. And all of what he said had already been said many times over, by him as well as by others in Vienna. Surely, the style of repeating something that has been often said before cannot be more persuasive than the substance of what is being repeated.
Therefore, Mr Mukherjeeâs style and persona cannot explain the magic of effectiveness which he is thought to have created in Vienna. More convincing is the persuasion of the power which President Bush is said to have used upon many smaller countries, as confirmed by some, including the unnamed representative of an unnamed country quoted as having said that he and others had been "leaned on at the highest level". But that only raises the question that since only the weight of a major power would have been effective, how was that power persuaded to use its weight on behalf of India so effectively?
That leads us straight to the power of the "market" that is India, and its need for nuclear power plants and the need of the makers of such powers plants to find a market for their products. But that equation too has its limits. There are only a few countries which have proven competence for making such plants, and fewer still have the clout which, alas, is possessed by manufacturers who may be more influential in some other respects but do not have an established reputation for quality of production in this particular field. <b>So the answers to the questions "who" and "how" may yet take some time to emerge.</b>
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Nuclear Thread - 4 - ravish - 09-09-2008
From the previous postings it is clear that Shri Mudyji is fighting a one man battle against the complete national sell out. His only weapon is the Pioneer quotes. Firstly, I would like to congratulate him on his firm determination and conviction for a cause, in this case to oppose the nuclear deal.
In a democracy, each individual has a right to express his views and we should give due respect to the views expressed by Mudiji. Taking the arguments put forward by him, one finds that the first non elected prime Minister has made a major achievement, unprecedented in the history of India.
He has been able to take almost full control of the entire print and electronic media excluding one newspaper the Pioneer- this is evident from the near unanimous welcome to the Nuclear Deal by the entire Indian media. The entire population has been so brain washed that there is no dissenting voice except that of Shri Mudy, Shri D. Raja and Karat babu- this is evident from the fact that despite the so called total sell out of Indiaâs strategic interest, there has been no general strike or even street protests in any part of the nation in the magnitude that would bring such events to the attention of the masses.
To achieve such an overwhelming control over the minds of the masses of India is no ordinary achievement and the architect needs to be recognised as a genius.
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-09-2008
Bribe talks, when shame of India is loaded.
Hitler had his Gestapo, one need one insane man to control power, No surprise Gesptapo of India'ss sing like a canary.
Whether it was Stalin or Mussolini they all have media behind them.
India behavior is no less than any communist or dictator ruled state only difference some else had remote.
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-09-2008
<b>Nuclear deal & after </b>
N.V.Subramanian suggests ways to limit the damage from Manmohan Singh's sell-out.<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->First, a minority government and a non-Lok Sabha prime minister,<b> Manmohan Singh, have rammed a deal against national interest down the country's throat. If the deal was anything else, the prime minister wouldn't have lied.</b>
...........
<b>Manmohan Singh is, in the present arrangement, solely answerable to Sonia Gandhi, and Sonia Gandhi is not India</b>. Obviously, the details have to be determined, but the point is India's rise has been autonomous, and if the autonomy goes, the rise will plateau off before long.
..........
In sum, the worst has happened. Manmohan Singh has sold out. Neither will he resign, nor will this shameless government quit. Now the Opposition has to put its head together to figure ways to save India. But it is more important than ever that this government is not reelected. If this government returns, India will be bound hands and feet to the United States. The US has no friendly use for India. It wants it to be an inferior ally to suborn<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Guest - 09-09-2008
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JI09Df02.html
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The government has reason to be nervous that once the nuclear deal moves on to the US Congress on Monday, a new dynamics takes over. Americans have a nasty practice of indulging in open discussions and public revelations of dark secrets on sensitive issues that may cause discomfort to the Indian leadership. Any searchlights by inquisitive American legislators or public watchdogs on the full range of hidden Indian assurances and commitments to the George W Bush administration could be extremely damaging politically to the government in Delhi. Hopefully, the jingoism that has been drummed up in Delhi will deflect attention. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Nuclear Thread - 4 - ravish - 09-09-2008
Good news from Beijing
Quote
BEIJING: After an unexpected opposition in Vienna, China has welcomed the NSG granting a waiver to India to engage in nuclear commerce. China, however, has said that this cooperation should be "conducive" to safeguarding the global nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
"China hopes that the decision will contribute to peaceful use of nuclear energy and international cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
China had joined hold-out countries like Austria, New Zealand and Ireland which were insisting on incorporating their concerns in the waiver but later relented after the US pushed hard to get the nod of the 45-member nuclear cartel.
"China believes that all countries are entitled to make peaceful use of nuclear energy, and conduct international cooperation in this regard," the statement said.
"Meanwhile, relevant cooperation should be conducive to safeguarding the integrity and efficacy of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime," the statement said.
Beijing's statement is being seen as a move to assuage New Delhi which has conveyed its unhappiness over the Chinese position at the NSG meet.
The tough negotiations at Vienna went down to the wire after China, which had sounded positive in the run-up to the NSG meeting, took a different line creating problems for a consensus on the waiver.
Unquote
Nuclear Thread - 4 - Naresh - 09-10-2008
<!--QuoteBegin-ravish+Sep 9 2008, 10:25 PM-->QUOTE(ravish @ Sep 9 2008, 10:25 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Good news from Beijing
[right][snapback]87754[/snapback][/right]
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<b>ravish Ji :</b>
As you well know the Chinese do not like âLosing Faceâ.
AAA : Reasons for the Chinese throwing a spanner in the works at the Eleventh Hour :
1. China does deeply resent India assiduously, confidently, slowly and surely is working towards attaining equality - on a Relative Basis - with China but mind you âNOT PARITYâ
2. China is mindful of the Pakistanis ability to :
(a) Fuel, Support and give all possible Assistance to the Uyghur Freedom Fighters enabling them to carry our Acts of Terrorism in Xinjiang (Formerly - up to 1949 the Republic of East Turkmenistan).
(b) China is working very hard to establish âA String or Pearlsâ i.e. Ports providing Naval Base Facilities - not only to provide for the Replenishment of Fuel, Food, Arms, Ammunition, and also change of Personnel. In addition such âNaval Basesâ would also have Airports for the use of the Chinese Air Force
© Basing Chinese Naval Vessels i.e. a Couple of Destroyers, Frigates, Missile Boats, Submarines, Replenishment Vessels carrying Stores, Food, Fuel etc. will cause a âMinorâ Alarm in Oil Tankers carrying Crude Oil from the Persian Gulf to various âEast Boundâ Destination i.e. India and further Eastern Countries but this would only be a minor irritation as the Chinese Navy would not be able to âBlow Upâ the Oil Tankers for the simple reason that it would cause a Humongous Maine Pollution wherein the Oil Slicks would most probably land on Iranian and Pakistani Shores. Thus there is no danger of a Chinese Blockade as all the Ships would stay out of Pakistani Territorial Limits - I believe it is 12 Miles.
The Idea of China using the Port of Gwadar for anything else but as a âNaval and air Baseâ is a Figment of the Pakistani Abdul the Bul Buls' and Burqa Bilqisâ Rich Islamic Imagination!
You will note that the Chinese feel that a Railway from Gwadar to Kashi in Xinjiang is unable to use the presently accessible Mountain Passes and I very much doubt if there is a Railway connection between Gwadar and Kashi being built in this or possible the next decade.
It might come to pass that the Chinese - on normalizing their relationship with India - could try to have their Tibetan Railway System being extended to Eastern India to enable Indian Ports to be used though I am not very confident of this connection in the near future.
BBB : Reasons for China finally agreeing to let India get a Nuclear Deal at the NSG :
3. Notwithstanding the above reasons, China also needs India for :
(i) Assured supply of Raw Materials especially Iron Ore of which China is Importing 70 Million Tonnes Annually from India.
(ii) Export Market for Chinese âCheap and Shoddyâ Goods.
(iii) Export Market for Sophisticated Chinese Manufactured Goods.
(iv) I believe that the India China Annual Trade is approaching the US Dollars Fifty Billion Mark and it is very Heavily in China's Favour - possibly US Dollars 20 Billion Annually.
In addition it might come to pass that the Chinese - on normalizing their relationship with India - could try to have their Tibetan Railway System being extended to Eastern India to enable Indian Ports to be used though I am not very confident of this connection in the near future.
These, Ravish Ji, are my random thoughts on the subject and I look forward to your views.
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->