Salami Tactics - Printable Version

Salami Tactics - Printable Version

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Salami Tactics - Guest - 05-22-2006

Transcript of a conversation between, the Prime Minister (PM) and his National Security Advisor (NSA)
NSA: Prime Minister, you believe in the nuclear deterrent? 
PM - Oh, yes
NSA: Why? 
PM: Pardon? 
NSA: Why? 
PM: Because it deters. 
NSA: Whom? 
PM: Pardon? 
NSA: - Whom? Whom does it deter? 
PM: Our neighbours from attacking us. 
NSA: Why?
PM: - Pardon? 
NSA: Why? 
PM: They know if they launched an attack, I'd press the button. 
NSA: - You would?
PM: Well, wouldn't I? 
NSA: Well, would you? 
PM: At the last resort, yes, I certainly would. 
PM: Well, I think I certainly would. Yes. 
NSA: And what is the last resort?
PM: If our neighbour tries to annex Kashmir.
NSA: You only have 12 hours to decide, so you're saying the last resort is the first response? 
PM: Am I? 
NSA: You don't need to worry. Why should the enemy try to annex Kashmir ? They can't even control NWFP. No, if they try anything, it will be salami tactics. 
PM: Salami tactics?
NSA: Slice by slice. 
NSA: One small piece at a time. So will you press the button if they cross the LOC ? 
PM: It all depends.
NSA: On what?Â Scenario one. Riots in PoK town bordering China, homes in flames. chinese fire brigade cross the border for help. Would you press the button...? 
PM: mmmm.....
NSA: The pakistani rangers come with them. The button...? 
PM: mmmm......
NSA: Then some pakistani troops, more chinese troops just for riot control, they say. 
PM: mmmm......
NSA: And then the rangers are replaced by regular army. Button...? 
PM: mmmm.......
NSA: Then the Chinese troops don't go. They are invited to stay to support civilian administration. The civilian administration closes cross border BUS and Train service.Â Now you press the button? 
PM: I need time to think about it. 
NSA: You have 12 hours. 
PM - Have I? You're inventing this. 
NSA: - You are Prime Minister today. The phone might ring now from Western Command. 
NSA:Â The Pakistani army accidentally on purpose cross the frontier with Chinese Troops behind them on their border. - Is that the last resort? 
PM: - No. 
NSA: Right, Suppose the Pakistani troops invade into villages and occuppy positions like in Kargil Suppose their tanks and troops have taken vantage points ?Â - Is that the last resort?
PM:Â - No. 
NSA: Why not?Â 
PM: Â We'd only fight a nuclear war to defend ourselves. That would be committing suicide! 
NSA: So what is the last resort? Connaught Place ? Sansad Marg ? The Constitution Club? 
PM: Maybe the nuclear deterrent makes no sense. 
NSA: - Yes, it does. If the Pakistanis or Chinese have the bomb, so must India . And keep Iran just in case. 
PM - What are you proposing? 
NSA: You wouldn't really press the button. 
PM: - I might if I had no choice. 
NSA: They'll never put you in a situation where you have no choice. 
They'll stick to salami tactics.
That folks was an adaptation of a conversation from the British Comedy Yes Prime Minister set in the Indo-Pak context.
Musharaff will continue to charm you from across the border and the Separatists will always be ready for talks but with riders thus putting you in a situation where you have a choice, 
While the militants will continue to bleed J&K slice by slice as they did in Jammu by taking innocent Hindu Lives with no fear of reprisal.
This explains the sheer despration from the Kashmiri Pandits expressed in this anguished piece from Lalit Koul titled âWhat will it take Mr. Prime Ministerâ 
http://in.rediff.com/news/2006/may/09guest1.htm
It is the same Salami Tactics that the Iranian President is now attempting with the USA with his 18 page letter to Bush which btw has succeeded in charming the Western Media.
Offstumped Bottomline: 
India's approach to Terrorism in its Neighbourhood is neutered by the lack of strategic options. 
Holy Cow we never got to learn how to work Salami to our advantage

Salami Tactics - Guest - 05-22-2006

Welcome to the forum, Yossarin. Although interesting there is a flaw in the above transcript. Nukes provide deterrence for nukes and thats all. That is what India says when it talks about NFU etc (atleast in my limited understanding).

The rest is ok, in the sense that India needs to devise a clear cut strategy for dealing the activities that the xcript mentions. I have mentioned this elsewhere many times but here it goes again.

What India needs is a clear terrorism deterrence strategy (that has nothing to do with nukes). Cold Start was a good beginning but falls waaay short of what is required. What is required is a public document that says the foll..

1. Grading of attacks in terms of number of casualities, property etc. The grading can have color grading (vibgyor if you will).
2. Criteria for determining foreign nation-state culpability.
3. Delegation of authority in terms of launching reprisals all coded as constitutional amendments.
4. Constitutional amendments that makes it compulsory for the responsible (autonomous?) authority to launch counter-strikes or face dismissal.
5. In case of TSP/PRC/BD etc.. public announcements of grades of attacks (#1) with targets in counter attacks . For example - 50 dead will be considered an orange attack neccesitating western command to take out GHQ. Nuke attack on any part of India mandates PM to launch a nuke counter-strike to take out Karachi+Islumabad.

Bottomline - nuke deterrence deters nukes and counter-strikes will have to counter terrorist attacks. Here is a quote that works best in this situation.

QUOTE"But I'm a superstitious man. And if some unlucky accident should befall him - If he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his jail cell - or if he's struck by a bolt of lightning, them I'm going to blame some of the people in this room, and that I do not forgive. But, that aside, let me say that I swear, on the souls of my grandchildren, that I will not be the one to break the peace we've made here today."

Salami Tactics - Guest - 05-22-2006

Rajesh - The intention of the illustration was not to in anyway imply Nukes were a deterrent to terrorism. It was to illustrate the lack of a strategic option in dealing with the J&K problem which allows for a slice by slice squeezing of concessions from India.

Salami Tactics - Naresh - 05-22-2006

Yossarin Ji :

[center]CATCH 22[/center]

Cheers <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' />