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Global Economy - Guest - 10-23-2008

<b>Markets in shock; rupee at all-time low</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The BSE Sensex, on Thursday morning, plunged by over 486 points, 4.78%, to fall to 9683.41 on heavy selling in IT, metal, realty and banking stocks.

The NSE Nifty is down 128 points, or 4.18%, at 2,937.05. This is its lowest since July 2006.

Short selling: Sebi lets off FIIs

<b>US Dollar 49.76 </b>

As expected. I was RIGHT. In case of India, I wanted to be wrong but here is reality anyone can predict.

Let see Re will cross 50 by end of this week. Very much possible. Even Oil bill will be low but India will see slow down in investment.

Global Economy - acharya - 10-23-2008

Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland
<b>The Crisis Will Divide the West</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Sarkozy also said in Camp David that Americans would not rule the world after the crisis: firstly, because it is them who caused it and secondly, because it will make the USA much weaker than the other centers of capitalism, the European and the Asian one. It is hard to say whether this diagnosis is true, but it definitely has an enormous political potential, which could be reduced to one call: let’s put a straight jacket on the Americans  Sarkozy proposed that the crisis should be handled by both G-8 and G-5. It would mean a creation of one big coalition between Europe and Asia having one priority: destroying global domination of America or at least freeing oneself from its control.

Thus, it looks like the financial crisis that originated in America put more gas on the new conflict between the two Western superpowers than the American intervention in Iraq a few years ago did.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Global Economy - acharya - 10-23-2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Al Youm Al Saba3, Egypt
The Collapse of America:When and How?
<img src='' border='0' alt='user posted image' />
By Khaled Al Sharif
Don't be shocked by the defeat of America (God does not fix the work of the wicked).
Translated By Kirsten Beck
17 October 2008
Egypt - Al Youm Al Saba3 - Original Article (Arabic)

The financial crisis and economic destruction afflicting the United States of America is about to blow her away. It's natural that Bush's imperialistic policy resulted in plunging into crusade-like wars against the Arab and Islamic world--a policy that inflicted a heavy financial burden upon the extremist U.S. administration in order to finance unjustified wars of intolerance and hatred in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the others; a policy that cost the U.S. Treasury 60 trillion dollars and that, in spite of all the financing, caused a huge economic disaster, the extent of which, beyond the certain defeat of the U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan, is unknown to anyone but God.

A recent preliminary strategy report confirmed that NATO and the United States will lose the war in Afghanistan, like what happened with the Soviet Union in the 80s of the last century and the British Empire in the 19th century. In a report by the strategic thinker Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, titled "Losing the Afghan-Pakistani War? The Rising Threat," Cordesman confirmed that the influence of the occupation forces is declining in Afghanistan, while the influence of Islamic resistance forces is increasing, providing proof and evidence backing up his findings.

The report indicates that the next U.S. president "will face a critical challenge in dealing with a war that is probably being lost at the political and strategic level, and is not being won at the tactical level." Strangely enough, the CIA itself agreed with NATO's strategic leaders and leader of the occupation forces in Afghanistan General David McKiernan, that the war in Afghanistan--up until the present time--is moving toward real defeat.

It's surprising that the people of a poor country like Afghanistan, who can't find a piece of bread, were not deceived by American slogans and her false democracy and went to join in the ranks of the resistance. This resistance increased its rate of attacks against the occupying forces, and the Afghan government forces supporting them, about 30% by the end of September 2008, compared to the end of September 2007.

It seems clear that there are three main axes affecting the situation in Afghanistan, motivating this high growth rate of the resistance over time. The first is the eagerness of the Afghan Islamic Resistance, the use of the Taliban movement as a model, and the movement's development of the resistance's actions against the occupying forces. The second axis is represented by the bad policies and strategies pursued by the U.S. and NATO forces in the beating and arrest of Afghan civilians, the lack of real development of Afghanistan, and the evaporation of the American promise to rebuild Afghanistan. And finally there is the deteriorating security situation in the region between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which is considered the focus of support for the Islamic resistance in Afghanistan.

Karzai, the president at the start of the occupation, lost all available resources that might have allowed him to gain the confidence of his people who are collapsing under the yoke of the occupation, suffering from bloody crimes committed against them on a daily basis. Instead of trying to remedy this strategic error and act decisively and practically, Washington failed to fulfill promises it made to itself: to improve the living conditions of the Afghan people and to help in building the economy.

Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, previously stated that America would suffer a defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan worse than her defeat in Vietnam. She confirmed that Bush tarnished the U.S.' reputation throughout the world after occupying Iraq and Afghanistan and by continuing to intervene in the internal affairs of Middle Eastern countries.

America learned that the small people, unable to confront her, will not greet her with hugs and kisses when she comes to occupy their homes and loot their wealth. Instead, they will ferociously defend their land and heritage. Don't be shocked by the defeat of America (God does not fix the work of the wicked). And how wicked is America?! And how ill has she become?! And how haughtily has she shown off her power?! To the debit of the world. Therefore the inevitable end will be disastrous. And the consequence is an embarrassing defeat.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Global Economy - acharya - 10-23-2008

<img src='' border='0' alt='user posted image' />

Global Economy - Guest - 10-23-2008

China is sitting but in very injured state, we don't know whether they need bandage or major surgery. Last I heard rich guys are leaving China.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-23-2008

SOme compilation of news from China
<b>China Rail Builders Book $331 Million of Forex Losses</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China Railway Group Ltd. and China Railway Construction Corp., two of the nation's biggest building companies, reported a combined 2.26 billion yuan ($331 million) of losses, joining Citic Pacific Ltd. in making wrong way bets on foreign currencies.

China Railway Group, Asia's biggest construction company, booked a 1.94 billion yuan loss, and China Railway Construction incurred a 320 million yuan loss, the Beijing-based companies said in separate statements to the Hong Kong stock exchange today.

<b>China Will Cut Interest Rates Again This Quarter, Survey Shows </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The key one-year lending rate will fall 27 basis points to 6.66 percent, according to seven of the economists. Two predict a drop of twice that size.

The estimates come after the world's fourth-biggest economy grew at the weakest pace in five years as the U.S. slowdown cooled demand for exports. China has cut borrowing costs twice in the past six weeks, increased tax rebates for exporters and reduced fees for home buyers to stimulate expansion.

<b>Financial turmoil and the global economic slowdown ``have started to have a negative impact on China's economy,</b>

<b>China's Stocks Fall a Third Day; Yunnan Copper, Chalco Drop</b>

Global Economy - Guest - 10-23-2008

<b>Chinese, Indian Cities Will Drive Economic Growth, Study Shows </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Cities in China and India will lead growth in emerging markets that will help drive global economic expansion, MasterCard Inc. said in a report that evaluated 65 leading cities in more than 30 countries.

Shanghai and Beijing were rated the No. 1 and No. 2 cities in the Worldwide Centers of Commerce: Emerging Markets Index. China has 15 cities in the list and India 8, the report said.

Again, Arm chair MBA's are going in wrong direction.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-23-2008

As expected -
USD INR=X 1 Oct 23 <b>50.050 </b>

Not sure, how they will change course.
Punjab had bumper crop only one plus sign but South and middle India crop choice for this year may bring crisis.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-23-2008

<b>Mexican central bank auctions $1 bln to boost peso </b>
AP (Thu 12:21pm)

Global Economy - Guest - 10-24-2008

<b>China Urged to Fight Crisis By Asia, Europe Leaders</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->China is seen as key to any global response because it has the world's fastest-growing major economy and <b>$1.9 trillion of currency reserves</b>, an amount larger than Canada's gross domestic product. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Emerging Power' </b>
China already seemed to supplant Japan as the region's financial leader on Oct. 8, when it reduced its interest rate within minutes of cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and five other central banks. The Bank of Japan, with the lowest benchmark rate of any major economy at 0.5 percent, supported the move in a statement without participating in it.

Since then, Asian countries have either included Chinese leaders in their proposals on limiting the credit crunch's spread or made them the centerpiece. Thailand's request that China ease conversion restrictions on its currency is aimed at facilitating the pooling of reserves to create a $350 billion fund to protect the region's currencies and buy stocks and bonds, said Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister, Olarn Chaipravat, in an interview in Bangkok on Oct. 22.

``The message of this initiative is for China to consider whether or not China would open up its banking system and allow the strongest currency in the world, which is the Chinese yuan, relative to anybody, to be the rightful and anointed convertible currency of the world,'' he said.
This will be trap for China.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-24-2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The RBI has announced the Credit Policy today. It has kept the CRR, Repo and Reverse Repo rates unchanged. Deposit growth rate has been maintained at 17.5%. GDP growth target has been revised to<b> 7.5-8%</b>. It has also retained inflation target of 7% by March 2009. Money supply target has been retained at 17%. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I doubt they can achieve, too ambitious. Growth will be under 5% with inflation it will be negative. As I predicted, India is heading for perfect storm. Quick general election may reduce effect. It will bring black and hidden international money in Indian market, that will simulate economy. Tickle up effect will be great.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-24-2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->4:16 PM - With the world markets under pressure the effects were felt on the Indian market that crashed to new lows today. The terrible weekly figures are: <b>Sensex was down 13.5%, Nifty down 17.5%. BSE Midcap index was down 12.5% and BSE Smallcap index down 16% over the week</b>. BSE Realty index was down 25%, BSE Metal index down 12.4%, BSE Oil & Gas index down 15% and BSE Bankex was down 13%<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BSE -1070.63 <b>8701.07 </b>-10.96%
NSE -359.15 2<b>,584.00 </b>-13.90%

Global Economy - Guest - 10-24-2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Rupee Has 11th Weekly Drop as Stocks Plunge, <b>Central Bank Cuts GDP Outlook </b>India's rupee dropped for an eleventh week, the longest losing streak since December 2005, as the nation's benchmark share index plunged the most in four years on signs global economies are headed for a recession.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Global Economy - Guest - 10-27-2008

<b>Gulf Bank May Have Loss as Derivatives Contracts Sour</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gulf Bank KSC, Kuwait's fourth- biggest lender by market value, may suffer losses after some <b>clients defaulted on derivative contracts linked to the euro, sparking concern regional banks may be further hit by the global financial crisis.</b>

The losses were incurred on currency derivatives after a decline in the value of the euro versus the dollar, state-run Kuwait News Agency said today, citing central bank governor Salim al-Sabah. Gulf Bank will have to absorb the losses until an agreement can be worked out between the bank and its clients, the news agency cited the central bank governor as saying.

The defaults will have ``no major'' financial effect, Chief Executive Officer Louis Myers said today. He declined to comment on the size of the losses. <b>Gulf Bank may have incurred losses of as much as 200 million dinars ($746 million) from derivatives contracts used for speculative trading or hedging</b>, Ibrahim Dabdoub, chief executive officer of National Bank of Kuwait SAK, Kuwait's biggest bank, said in an interview to Al Arabiya TV.

<b>Banks in the six Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have largely sidestepped the $681 billion of losses and writedowns that banks across the world have taken following the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market</b>. Gulf Bank joins lenders including Gulf International Bank BSC, which has written down $1 billion, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC and investment bank Shuaa Capital PSC, which between them have written down $174 million.

This is very important.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-27-2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Saudi Arabia Gives $2.67 Billion No-Fee Loans to Help Low-Income Citizens </b>The Saudi government will inject 10 billion riyals ($2.67 billion) into the government-run Saudi Credit Bank to provide no-fee loans to low-income citizens, Saudi Press Agency said, citing the finance minister. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Even Oil rich countries are tanking. Now who is holding money ?

This week Oil should go futher down atleast $5-8 dollars.

Global Economy - Guest - 10-29-2008

<b>China cuts rates</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The Europe Central Bank and Britain are expected to add to the worldwide monetary easing next week as authorities remain fearful that the worst financial crisis in 80 years will cause a long global recession.

China increasingly appears to be the world's last center of growth and has said it would not fall victim to the crisis. It cut its interest rate to 6.66 percent from 6.93.

Global Economy - Guest - 11-03-2008

<b>Global crisis hits India, be on alert: PM</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The global crisis has affected Indian economy. The situation is abnormal and we need to be constantly on alert, Manmohan Singh said.

The first priority to protect Indian financial system from possible loss of confidence, he said, adding that the government will take all necessary monetary and fiscal steps to protect growth rate


I was under impression that genius are running India and Global crisis will just leave India. What happened? Shame of India just woke up or his pension which comes from US may reduce?
<!--emo&:eager--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/lmaosmiley.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='lmaosmiley.gif' /><!--endemo-->

Global Economy - Guest - 11-09-2008

<b>China announces $586 billion stimulus plan</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->China announces $586 billion spending package to boost domestic demand

BEIJING (AP) -- China announced a $586 billion stimulus package Sunday in its biggest move to stop the global financial crisis from hitting the world's fourth-largest economy.
A statement on the government's Web site said China's Cabinet had approved a plan to invest the amount in infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010.

Some of the money will come from the private sector. The statement did not say how much of the spending is on new projects and how much is for ventures already in the pipeline that will be speeded up.

I was on dot, half trillion to keep chini rioting crowd happy, not sure they can keep them silent. It means Chinese saving is evaporating very fast. No news on number of bank failures, my guess around 30% of goverment owned bank just collapsed.
They are still doing nothing with currency evaluation, which is very interesting. I think it is heading or already reached to correct value.

Global Economy - Guest - 11-11-2008

•Las Vegas Sands Halts Macau Construction, Seeks $2.14 Billion of Capital

•China's October Inflation Slows to 4%, Giving Room for Further Rate Cuts

Global Economy - acharya - 11-11-2008

<!--QuoteBegin-Mudy+Nov 9 2008, 05:10 AM-->QUOTE(Mudy @ Nov 9 2008, 05:10 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->

I was on dot, half trillion to keep chini rioting crowd happy, not sure they can keep them silent. It means Chinese saving is evaporating very fast. No news on number of bank failures, my guess around 30% of goverment owned bank just collapsed.
They are still doing nothing with currency evaluation, which is very interesting. I think it is heading or already reached to correct value.

Marc Faber says the growth in China will top 5% at the max.

This is recession for China in a big way