2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

ramana · 07-26-2007, 02:08 AM

From Deccan Chronicle, 26 july 2007

QUOTEâTD is No.1 T-partyâ
Â

Hyderabad, July 25: A confidential survey conducted by the Telugu Desam shows that the party was still lurking behind the Congress in regions other than Telangana. It has however re-emerged as a major force in Telangana and was the âsingle largest partyâ with a vote share of 41 per cent, said the survey.
This is rather ironic, since the TD stands for the united state and is not in favour of a separate Telangana.

If the survey is to be believed, a TD-CPI-CPM combination would be deadly and would be able to trounce the Congress in Telangana. âOur agitations over peopleâs issues have definitely improved our support in the Telangana districts,â said TD leader Devender Goud. âThe TD stirs on bidi packets and Babli construction have paid off.â But the scenario is rather bleak in the Andhra region, where the TD has still not gained lost ground.

Only in the East and West Godavari districts does it come anywhere near the Congress in terms of peopleâs support. But the bad news is from Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam, Nellore, Chittoor districts, which are still stoutly behind the Congress with a vote share of 75 per cent.Â The TD could get only about 25 per cent vote share in Guntur and Prakasam. Even Chittor, which is TD chief N. Chandrababu Naiduâs home district, is under the grip of the Congress.

In Rayalaseema, the picture is mixed. It is the TD all the way in Anantapur. At the same time in Kadapa, the home district of Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, TD is limited to 15 per cent leaving 85 per cent to the Congress. Kurnool too is dominated by the Congress, but the TD has slightly improved since the last polls. But in Chittor, it is as disastrous as it was in 2004 for the TD.

In North Coastal Andhra region the situation is still in favour of Congress party except in Visakhapatnam district, where large number of voters are moving towards the TD. A team of researchers belonging to two universities in Rayalaseema were engaged in the survey which was held between June 10 and July 5 across the state. TD sources said that more than 18,000 samples from 210 assembly constituencies were collected and analysed.



There is a Arun Nehru article in Pioneer and PC Alexander op-ed in Deccan Chronicle, on same subject. So it is not too early to discuss the issues and prospects. <!--emo& Smile

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ramana · 07-26-2007, 02:36 AM

Arun Nehru articl ein Pioneer

QUOTEIt's advantage Congress

The presidential election is finally over. Ms Pratibha Patil has been elected as the first woman President of India. The UPA-Left presidential candidate has defeated Mr Bhairon Singh Shekhawat with a margin of over three lakh votes - about 10,000 more than expected by her party's poll managers - thanks to cross-voting in her favour in some States. The presidential election has been a no-contest, as the numbers were always in favour of the UPA and its allies.

During the election, the BJP-led NDA failed to perform as a team. After wresting the advantage from the UPA on the issue of Ms Patil's 'loans and defaults' and the adverse public reaction to her, the NDA gave away the advantage. Worse, some of the NDA allies were even embarrassed and reluctant to identify themselves with the BJP during the election, fearing the loss of minority votes. And this applies to the JD(U) in Bihar and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

This confusion may well continue for the election of the Vice-President, and if the Left does not create complications to divert attention from its own internal battles, the Congress has a good opportunity to launch a political counter-offensive. The result of the presidential election has strengthened the Congress and its coalition partners, isolated the BJP from its allies and will help the strengthening of the eight-party UNPA.

The effects of all this will be felt in Gujarat, which will be witnessing Assembly election in the next few months. Confused thinking within many power centres of the BJP will help the Congress in its battle against Mr Narendra Modi, one of the best Chief Ministers in the country. And if the Congress does well, the Left parties' drift towards the UNPA as a viable alternative may be delayed.

The Left has made no secret of its preference for a non-BJP, non-Congress coalition, and this makes theoretical sense. But I wonder if this will take place if the Left shrinks to 40-45 seats, from the current level of 65 seats, in the next election. Every political group, be it the UPA, the UNPA or the NDA, is under pressure as are individual parties, for, anti-incumbency factors make political honeymoons unpredictable. Can Ms Mayawati's BSP and Mr Parkash Singh Badal's Akali Dal survive for two years in office and retain their popularity? In my opinion, as things stand at the moment, the contest is between the UPA and the UNPA. The NDA is a distant third.

Coming to the economy, it continues to prosper. Clearly, India is a land of opportunity for those who can think ahead. Also, the future is with those with a positive mindset. Those looking for negatives will find them in plenty and will be a spectator to events. They will miss the bus. Infrastructure is the key to success and this is where the main responsibility of the Government is, both at the Centre and in the States. In this connection, archaic laws pertaining to land usage - both agricultural and commercial - and residential rules need to be reviewed. The reality of economic growth should be taken into account.

We have seen utter chaos in Delhi on the issues of demolition and sealing. I do not know how all this activity has helped the country to progress into the future. We, in Mehrauli, continue to look at MG Road and the partially demolished buildings where nothing has been done to clear the debris. Other buildings have been sealed and are awaiting the law court's decision. Everyone, including the media, has lost interest in the issue which may have resulted in a loss of revenue of over Rs 1,000 crore to the Government in taxes, besides leading to unemployment of many thousands.

We talk of the rule of law, but to take corrective action a decade or two after the event takes place makes little sense. And has any public interest been served by these demolitions? Land reforms are only one part of the infrastructure story and as we grow at the rate of eight per cent plus, we need activity on several fronts. Industry initiative and effort will have to be supported by the Government.

No Government can survive by taking a negative attitude on growth. Any punitive steps taken will drive away investors to other locations. An excellent example would be of Kerala where the CPI(M) Government pursues a punitive policy towards certain industrial houses. I think this will result in an electoral disaster in the next election. The voting public wants reforms and progress, and has little interest in some Left leaders settling their personal problems. West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee cannot be faulted for Nandigram, which, sadly, was more of a creation by the local CPI(M) cadre which control the rural areas. The Left has flexed its muscles on the issue of the President and we have seen what happens when a panic decision is taken.

The stock markets have a logic of their own, but I am amazed at the foreign experts and the brokerage houses who appear with their stories of gloom and doom. It is time the SEBI took a closer look at these experts, and at the buying and selling patterns of these brokerage houses. You will observe that most change their assessment with market movements. Speculation and corrections are part of the market, as are charging bulls and retreating bears. It is a tribute to the Indian investor that he has shown confidence in the market and not reacted to panic news from interested parties.

The reality is that we are growing at the rate of eight per cent to nine per cent a year, we have the best demographic pattern and a middle class in excess of 300 million people, and we are adding 30-40 million every year to this class. Should anyone be surprised that hundreds of Indian companies are acquiring assets abroad, and all things Indian have been making their presence felt in the global market over the past 10 years? The colonial hangover is over and there is a growing pride in things Indian. We are often described as an "emerging market", but the reality is that we emerged many years ago. The Indian MNC is making its presence felt in the 'developed' world.

07-26-2007, 08:30 AM

Prez polls don't alter the politics of nation e.g. Prez Kalam was mainly NDA candidate yet NDA lost elections.
RE: UNPA
AIDMK has already almost opted out of it.
Most of the other partners are also ex NDA. They are stoutly opposed to Congress.
RE: Congress
It does not have much locus standi in states as compared to BJP.

07-26-2007, 10:01 AM

QUOTE(ramana @ Jul 25 2007, 01:38 PM)From Deccan Chronicle, 26 july 2007

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTEâTD is No.1 T-partyâ
...
If the survey is to be believed, a TD-CPI-CPM combination would be deadly and would be able to trounce the Congress in Telangana. âOur agitations over peopleâs issues have definitely improved our support in the Telangana districts,â said TD leader Devender Goud. âThe TD stirs on bidi packets and Babli construction have paid off.â But the scenario is rather bleak in the Andhra region, where the TD has still not gained lost ground.

Only in the East and West Godavari districts does it come anywhere near the Congress in terms of peopleâs support. But the bad news is from Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam, Nellore, Chittoor districts, which are still stoutly behind the Congress with a vote share of 75 per cent.Â The TD could get only about 25 per cent vote share in Guntur and Prakasam. Even Chittor, which is TD chief N. Chandrababu Naiduâs home district, is under the grip of the Congress.

In Rayalaseema, the picture is mixed. It is the TD all the way in Anantapur. At the same time in Kadapa, the home district of Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, TD is limited to 15 per cent leaving 85 per cent to the Congress. Kurnool too is dominated by the Congress, but the TD has slightly improved since the last polls. But in Chittor, it is as disastrous as it was in 2004 for the TD.

In North Coastal Andhra region the situation is still in favour of Congress party except in Visakhapatnam district, where large number of voters are moving towards the TD. A team of researchers belonging to two universities in Rayalaseema were engaged in the survey which was held between June 10 and July 5 across the state. TD sources said that more than 18,000 samples from 210 assembly constituencies were collected and analysed.



There is a Arun Nehru article in Pioneer and PC Alexander op-ed in Deccan Chronicle, on same subject. So it is not too early to discuss the issues and prospects. <!--emo& Smile

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[right][snapback]71524[/snapback][/right]
</div>

TD lost Telangana in 2004 due to obviously TRS and Congress con job on Telangana. Now all that lost ground is being regained by TDP.

In the rest of Andhra Pradesh, there was no idealogical shift but bad karma of anti-incumbency, bad seat allocations, and most importantly rebels. In the next
elections Congress is fraught with same negatives. TDP has much better wiggle room
for seat allocations and poll alliances. Congress also lost center of gravity around YS to control the candidates which he did effectively in 2004. In the AP, Congress is exactly like TDP in 2004 - ready to lose

Ananthapur and Chittoor dist will come back to TDP in next elections. Cuddapah is obviously YS's fort so no chance there.

Overall, TDP will win the next elections. Unfortunately, TDP may join hands with Commies to win back Telangana.

07-31-2007, 09:29 PM

Mayawati begins her campaign to be prime minister
QUOTEShe is absolutely focused on her political priorities. Nothing can shake her from her resolve to fulfill her ambitions.

Now she has, Arjun-like, set her ambitious eyes on the target.

Which is the parliamentary election scheduled for 2009.

In her mind Mayawati has already anointed herself prime minister of India.

She is ruthlessly swift in her methods/reactions/decisions/actions. She has not the slightest hesitation in beheading the highest of bureaucrats/politicians.

08-06-2007, 03:15 AM

Congress, BSP inching closer Arun Nehru
QUOTEMy initial assessment is that in the next Lok Sabha election, the Congress can gain 40 to 45 seats in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Kerala. It will lose 35 to 40 seats in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. I don't see any gains for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, where the SP and the BSP will dominate; Bihar, where the JD(U) and the BJP will maintain the lead; Maharashtra, where the NCP, the BJP and the Shiv Sena will dominate; and, Gujarat, where the BJP, thanks to Mr Narendra Modi's image, will perform well. The UPA may well lose the Left to the UNPA - I see the Left sharply declining from 65 seats to 45 seats in West Bengal and Kerala. All this makes the BSP quite relevant for the future as it will win about 40 seats, if not more, in the next general election.

The Congress needs to make political inclusions in the Cabinet and I think it would be a good move for Mr Rahul Gandhi to join the Government. He may well surprise himself and many others by his performance, and this will be necessary for his image as a serious campaigner for the next general election.

The UNPA will offer a serious challenge if it wins Tamil Nadu, thanks to the ADMK, and Andhra Pradesh, because of the Telugu Desam Party. In both States the anti-incumbency issue favours a change. Tamil Nadu will be a keen battle between Ms J Jayalalithaa of the ADMK and the many factions of the DMK. I think the political odds are in favour of the ADMK leader, and it is unfortunate that the Centre and the State Government are indulging in petty vendettas.

The situation in Andhra Pradesh is alarming. First harsh words were used by Chief Minister YSR Chandrasekhara Reddy against Mr Chandrababu Naidu, and then the police fired on protesters at Khammam, resulting in high casualties. I would be surprised if the Congress wins even a few seats in the next election - Andhra Pradesh could be the single largest disaster for the party.

The NDA will not be a serious contender for power - it will lose 'allies' to the UNPA and the BJP will lose seats in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The BJP's gains in Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand will be marginal compared to the losses.

ramana · (This post was last modified: 08-09-2007, 01:49 AM by ramana.)

Two relevant stories from Pioneer, 9 August 2007

QUOTEÂ

Shiv Sena breaks ice, attends NDA meet

Pioneer News Service | New Delhi

The Shiv Sena made the first move on Wednesday to remove the strain in its tie with the BJP and attended the meeting of the NDA parliamentary party.

The Sena had skipped the last two NDA meetings and the relation between the two partners had come to breaking point after the Sena supported UPA nominee Pratibha Patil in the presidential contest.

Sena leader Manohar Joshi attended the NDA meeting ahead of the vice-president's election on Friday. BJP leader Sushma Swaraj said she "hopes" Sena would vote for the Opposition alliance's Vice-Presidential candidate Najma Heptullah.

"There's a saying that action speaks louder than words. In the context of today's meeting I can say presence (of Joshi) speaks louder than words," she remarked.

The BJP leader, who had been NDA-backed presidential candidate Bhairon Singh Shekhawat's spokesperson, recalled that Joshi had not turned up at two key meetings in the run-up to the election to the highest office. "But now he has."

But the NDA continued to face problem as its Orissa partner BJD skipped the Wednesday meeting. The BJD's move comes in the wake of senior BJP leader Jual Oram's recent attack on Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik in connection with moves to lease out the Khandadhar mines to South Korean steel giant POSCO in the State.

No representative from the Trinamool Congress either attended the meeting chaired by former Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani.

"They (BJD and Trinamool) said they have not received the letter of invitation," Sushma Swaraj claimed as she insisted flooding in eastern states could be the reason for a possible communication breakdown. "We will have to inquire why our invitation did not reach them," she said.



AND

QUOTEUNPA to demand division of votes in HouseÂ 

Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi

Even as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh looks firm on pushing forward the Indo-US nuclear agreement text in Parliament, he may face a tough task as the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA) has decided to demand for division of votes after the discussion.

"We shall give the notice in this regard in both Houses of Parliament on Thursday and we shall demand for division of votes," Samajwadi Party chief whip Mohan Singh said. He also made it clear that they would oppose the deal and vote against it.

Though the UNPA, which has 84 members in Parliament, would make the final announcement on Thursday after an UNPA meeting, the alliance partners are suspicious that the Government would not allow voting after the discussion.

"If the Speaker and the Chairman goes according to the rule book, there cannot be division of votes on this issue (international agreement)," a Lok Sabha Secretariat official said, adding, however, that the Government and the presiding officers can always decide to change the course.

The UNPA leaders would meet on Thursday and also host a dinner to its MPs before the election of Vice-President on Friday.

However, irrespective of the all out criticism from all political quarters except those in the UPA Government, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is determined to go ahead with the text of the civil nuclear agreement.

According to PMO sources, Singh will address the "concerns" of the political parties regarding the deal in the coming session of Parliament beginning Friday, but will not relent under the pressure of either the left parties or that of the opposition.

Singh will make a suo motu statement on the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement in Parliament on August 13.

"This is the final text after consistent discussion with the US officials and any change sought in this may not be feasible," a top Government functionary told The Pioneer.



And
QUOTEN-deal: Isolated Cong puts up brave faceÂ

Pioneer News Service | New Delhi

Pushed to a corner after Left's rejection of the 123 Indo-US nuclear deal, the Congress put up a brave front and said that it would discuss with its allies and convince them on the deal.

Standing almost isolated over the deal, the Congress emphasised on Wednesday that it had been brokered keeping the interest of the nation in mind.

Congress spokesperson Jayanthi Natarajan said: "The Prime Minister has spelt out clearly that for the Government the interest of the country is prime. We are sure that the Government would be able to convince the Left parties on this." The Left parties have demanded that the Indo-US treaty be ratified by the Parliament. The party, however, was evasive over the issue.

Natarajan lobbed the ball conveniently in the court of the UPA Government. She said: "There are many international ramifications of the treaty. So it has to be first discussed and debated within the UPA. It is for the UPA and not the Congress alone to form its view."

When asked if the deal was negotiable, Natarajan said: "It is not for us but the Government to tell. The Left is well within its right to express its opinion. We are confident that the Prime Minister and his Government have done the best for the country and would be able to convince the Left on this."

The Left's opposition comes at a time when the Government was least expecting it. Party sources said that the Prime Minister was himself addressing the issue. Earlier, he had given presentations to Prakash Karat. The party, however, expected the BJP and not the Left to raise such issues. Congress, however, is not seeing it as a sort of ultimatum by the Left. Natarajan said: "We do not treat this as an 'ultimatum'. This Government will last its full term." 



So there is a big fear that the govt could loose the vote on ratification. BJP should say it will vote in national interests if the issue comes up for division.

08-09-2007, 02:11 AM

QUOTEBJP ridicules Left threats 
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
With the BJP seeking a debate on the Indo-US nuclear agreement under Rule 184 which entails voting and the newly-formed UNPA expected to follow the same line, the Left's credibility will be at stake in the forthcoming session of Parliament.Â

Much will depend on the stand taken by the Left parties in the Business Advisory Committee to discuss the nature of debate in the Lok Sabha. Observers believe that if the Left was serious about blocking the agreement, they would press for discussion under Rule 184 or else settle for a debate under Rule 193 which will not entail voting.

In the past, the Left broke rank with the Opposition parties whenever the BJP had taken the lead in evolving a political consensus to corner the Government. After holding talks with the Opposition, the Left had refused to side with them in Parliament at the eleventh hour.

The BJP has reason to gloat over the Left's dilemma. The party feels that the Left cannot go beyond a certain extent in opposing the deal and it would cave in if it came to voting against the Government.

"If they are serious about their ideological commitment and concerned about India's security consideration and foreign policy direction, let them press for discussion under Rule 184 and vote against the Government," said BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar.

Taking a dig at the Left parties, Javadekar said that they take one stand outside Parliament and quite the opposite inside the House. " It is a reflection of their duplicity," he said , adding, " on every crucial issue, the Left has bailed out the Government in the past."

" We are not impressed by their verbose exercise in rejecting the 123 Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement " Javadekar said. " It is one thing to raise a slogan and another to translate words into action," he added.

The BJP leaders feel that the Left will enter into an understanding with the Government to stall any discussion under Rule 184 and make the right noises in Parliament during the debate.

"This will serve the Left's purpose and also save embarrassment to the Government," Javadekar said.


Left is just greedy and will like to stay in power without responsibility; they will make noise as usual but cave in. That is how we define communist, parasites.

08-10-2007, 12:51 AM

QUOTELeft backtracks, not to press for vote on 123Â 
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
After spewing fire at the Government over the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement and warning it of serious consequences, the Left has done the predictable. The Comrades will not press for a vote in Parliament during the discussion on the Agreement and confine themselves to only making rhetorical noises.

Since strong anti-Americanism has been one of the ideological planks of the Left, it was expected that after raising such a vocal outcry over "mortgaging" India's nuclear sovereignty at the hands of Uncle Sam, the Communists would not tamely surrender to the Government's diktat. But within two days of their massive propaganda exercise - rejection of the 123 agreement - the Left has once again opted for abject capitulation.

On Thursday, the CPI Parliamentary Party made it clear it would not insist on a vote in Parliament over the issue and leave it to the Government to decide under what rule the matter could be discussed in both the Houses. The CPI (M) is also expected to take a similar stand though an official announcement is still awaited.

CPI leaders have offered no convincing answer on why the party which opposed the deal along with other Left parties and had asked Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to put the 123 agreement on hold, was not willing to press for a vote.Â


Told you. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /> No surprise here. They are empty vessles who just make noise.
Indian commies are just greedy crock who can sell their own to stay in power.

08-11-2007, 09:56 PM

<img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /> In Indian political scenario, it's too early e.g. if Left aligns w/ UNPA and BJP for 123 deal, UPA may come down tumbling and we may have elections in 2007 itself; what to talk of '09.
Unpredictability of coalition Govt!

ramana · 08-13-2007, 08:08 PM

Capt that is why the thread is there. Its for the long and short view of the elections.

Deccan Chronicle in its 13 August 2007 edition says
QUOTELeft hardliners for issue-based support 
By Harish Gupta
After the Prime Minister called the Leftâs bluff on the nuclear deal, the Congress started a midnight operation to douse the fire. A team comprising Ahmed Patel, Suresh Pachauri, Priya Ranjan Das Munshi, Narayanswamy and some others are trying to pacify the Left. They are saying that the Prime Minister gave the interview to the Kolkata newspaper only after CPI(M) general-secretary Prakash Karat publicly told the government to be ready for "political consequences." They told Karat that the PM had said such things even in the past and nothing much should be read in his statements.

In fact, it was after great efforts that Sitaram Yechury was made to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the new vice-president. Even Karat subsequently toned down his threat. But Left hardliners want the blanket support given to the UPA to be withdrawn, and replaced with issue-based support. They want the Manmohan Singh government to become a minority government as was the case with Indira Gandhi. The Left wonât pull it down, but the UPA must find its own oxygen. RSPâs Abani Roy told Karat that insults would not be tolerated and his party would consider voting against the deal if the matter was not discussed. Forward Bloc is also in a militant mood. The UNPA is working overtime to take advantage of the situation.

Rajnath embraces astrology

BJP president Rajnath Singh is the latest to join the fan club of astrologers and Vaastu experts. Rattled by the recent setbacks to the party and the beating his own image has taken, the BJP president has started consulting astrologers. Pradyut Vora, Rajnathâs confidant and an IIM alumnus from Ahmedabad, asked a top Vaastu expert to visit the BJP headquarters. The expert advised that major changes be made to Rajnathâs room at the party headquarters of 11 Ashok Road. He also said that Rajnathâs room was built at a place where the washroom should have been, and that it was because of this very reason that none of Rajnathâs predecessors could complete their term in the last ten years.Â <img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /> Apart from this, a new media room is also being constructed.

Changes are being quietly made at Rajnathâs residence as well. It must be mentioned here that Murli Manohar Joshi too believed in astrology and Vaastu, but he also had to make an unceremonious exit after his failed mission to Jammu and Kashmir. H.D. Deve Gowda did everything possible to protect his prime ministership by consulting astrologers and Vaastu experts, but failed to complete his term. However, Gowda believes that he became PM because of astrological advice. BJP high command is wishing Rajnath well in his endeavour.

ramana · 08-15-2007, 03:03 AM

Op-Ed in Pioneer by DN Mishra, 15 August 2007

QUOTENo commonality between Left and Cong

From day one of the UPA Government, the CPM and the CPI have been deceiving people. First, they opposed the initiative by the Government and then supported it meekly. Their duplicity has now been thoroughly exposed.

Take the example of Indo-US 123 Agreement. Both the CPM and the CPI rejected it. They raised nine specific objections. They appeared so concerned and angry that anybody would guess that they would act in that vein in the ensuing Parliament session. But nothing of that sort is going to happen. The Congress will rule though it has told the Prime Minister that the Government would have to face total isolation in Parliament.

The BJP has already demanded a discussion in Parliament on this agreement under Rule 184. Self-proclaimed Stalinist Speaker Somnath Chatterjee is not likely to allow a discussion under Rule 184, for it allows voting. This particular deal can't get approval of majority members in either House. But we know that Chatterjee will deny this opportunity to the House on some pretext. The CPM and CPI would not endanger the UPA Government though both are threatening review of their support to it. Their show of bravado may continue. If the discussion is conducted under Rule 184 they may walkout and save the Government. Alternatively there may be a discussion under rule 193, which does not require voting.

The NDA thinks that mortgaging nuclear sovereignty to a three-phase indigenous nuclear programme has serious implications for national security. If any future Government conducts a nuclear test, it has to bear a high prohibitive cost, though the agreement is deceptively silent on it.

The reasons attributed by the CPM and CPI for opposing the agreement is usual. Anything related to US is anathema to comrades. In review of their support they may substitute outside support by detached support.

It may be recalled that when China conducted its first nuclear test in 1963, the CPM and the CPI extended support to China by passing a resolution but when India conducted the test in 1998, their NGOs came out heavily against the NDA Government, whereas whole of the India was overjoyed. The Congress' reaction was lukewarm. It complimented the scientists but later turned critical of the test. The CPM and the CPI gave mixed reactions. Till last century the Congress was their enemy number one. Then came a phase when there were two enemies for them, the Congress and the BJP. And now their enemy number one is the BJP.

The CPM has done an about-turn. One can recall SA Dange's line. He was in favour of an alliance with the Congress but he was thrown out of the party. He formed his own party, which flopped. Ultimately, the CPM and the CPI followed his line. Buddhadeb Bhattacharya's remarks after announcing outside support to the Congress led UPA Government was: "If we tell the Congress to stand up they will stand up and if we tell them to sit down they will sit down;" meaning that the Congress would dance to CPM tunes.

But what has happened so far. During last 38 months scores of statements by various Left party leaders has bamboozled the UPA on its policy decisions. First, by hard-hitting criticism and thereafter by ignoring Sonia Gandhi's arguments and appeals. But she had her way and the CPI and CPM meekly let her go. At best they got some minor concessions.

The Left and the Congress, have no commonality. One is headed by a lady of Italian origin who controls strings of power. The Congress, the Cabinet, the allies and even those who have given outside support are subservient to her. On the other hand all parties of the Left are dictated by the CPM alone. Sometime the CPI may sing a different tune but sooner or later they too fall in line. Some may even raise their voices louder than the CPM. But they can't decide anything by themselves. Off course, there is one commonality between the whole conglomerates - lovingly they call it secularism.

Anything related to Hindus, Indian traditional values, cultural continuum of more than five millenniums is branded by them as communal. Alliance with terrorism, Islamists and the ilk is secular. Alliance with the Muslims League and separatists is also secular. Under the garb of secular anything goes with ease including passing the unanimous resolution in favour of the chief conspirator of Coimbatore serial bomb blasts and pressurising the Government to commute death sentence of Afzal Guru the chief conspirator of attack on the Parliament. National interests are often compromised.

I don't see any enthusiastic support for 123 Agreement even within the Congress. It has been thrust upon by Sonia Gandhi and the US' global interests.

08-19-2007, 03:29 AM

QUOTEParties gear up for mid-term poll in AP 
Pioneer.com
Omer Farooq | Hyderabad
Sensing the possibility of a mid-term election, all major political parties in Andhra Pradesh are preparing hard. While the ruling Congress held a meeting of its State Executive as well as Legislature to assess the preparation of the party, the Telugu Desam Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti have started the exercise of oiling their organisational machineries. 

TRS president K Chandrasekhara Rao has constituted a 94-member State committee including heads of all the Telangana districts while a new executive of the Telugu Desam Party on Saturday took charge when its members were administered the oath of office by party president N Chandrababu Naidu.

Speaking on the occasion, Naidu asked the party men to. be ready for the elections "They can come any time," he said referring to the unfolding political scenario at the national level in the backdrop of the gap between the Congress and the Left over the nuclear deal with the United States. 

He told the party office bearers to realise the role the State committee will play when the elections are round the corner. He asked the party to prepare a comprehensive plan to expose corruption and anti-people policies of the Reddy Government in the State.

The newly constituted party executive took oath at the party headquarters at NTR Trust Bhavan. The Executive also met and discussed the current political situation.

Gandhi Bhavan, the State Congress headquarters, was also a beehive of activity with top party leaders attending the meeting amid indications that the party was looking at the possibility of early election.

The meeting was held a day after Reddy met the party president Sonia Gandhi and other top leaders of the party in New Delhi. Sources said that the Chief Minister and State Congress president K Keshav Rao have received signals from the High Command that the party in the State should start gearing up for the possibility of a mid-term election.

08-19-2007, 03:37 AM

QUOTEBeginning of the end 
Pioneer.com
Swapan Dasgupta
There were many misguided souls who imagined that the Congress Party and the Communists were just an "item" - the euphemism for a casual but mutually satisfying relationship. Now that both Prakash Karat and AB Bardhan have independently clarified that the two were actually bound by the covenant of marriage, the public spat over the Indo-US nuclear agreement has to be viewed through a different prism.Â

It is important to realise that unlike Bardhan's belief that the end of the honeymoon leads inevitably to divorce - a line of thinking that owes more to Zsa Zsa Gabor than Karl Marx - Karat realises that in India at least, loveless marriages persist for the sake of larger commitments to the family and community. His clarification that the "honeymoon is over but the marriage can continue for some time" is revealing. It suggests that regardless of Bardhan's endearing bluster, the CPI(M) will explore every option - including counselling and separation - before concluding that there is an irretrievable breakdown and that divorce is the only way out. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />

For the CPI(M), the priority is to ensure that the Indo-US nuclear agreement is not "operationalised". Its visceral antipathy to the agreement is not based on the belief that India's nuclear programme must be firewalled. The CPI(M), after all, was equally forthright in opposing the Pokhran-II tests in 1998. The party believes that the biggest threat to the world is posed by "US imperialism" and that the nuclear agreement is a facet of a strategic relationship that embraces the economy, defence and foreign policy.

For the CPI(M), the emerging relationship with the US is doubly dangerous because it goes against the national interests of China. For 50 years, China has managed the containment of India as a low-cost operation, using Pakistan and even the US. The growing Indo-US strategic relationship combined with India's growing economic clout now threatens to shift the scales of hegemonism in Asia away from Beijing. China and, for that matter, Pakistan will use all their leverage within India to scuttle the nuclear agreement because that changes the entire ball game in the region.

If the Communists were convinced that an immediate divorce was the only way to fight Washington and safeguard Beijing, they would have done so. However, the CPI(M) presumably feels that it has not explored all available options. The first is, of course, the propaganda war which Manmohan Singh is losing. Second is "going to the people" which is likely to be a non-starter because such abstruse issues don't inspire mass movements. The third, and by far the most important option, is to persuade the Congress to turn against its own Prime Minister. It is only if this approach fails that the CPI(M) will file for formal divorce.

How far will the Congress go to save the UPA Government? Stemming from the curious belief that he has grown a backbone, the Prime Minister appears to have lost his composure. He first dared the Left to withdraw support. But far from scaring Karat - although it may have made some "parliamentary- roaders" a trifle nervous - it bolstered its dogmatic certitudes. Second, in mistaking India Today for India TV and fulminating over havans held, presumably, on the wrong side of Asoka Road, he imagined he was some kind of new Chief Bonga Bonga. Finally, in saying at the same breath that it was his "destiny" to be Prime Minister, he confounded Congressmen and put the "inner voice" in perspective. 

The belief that Manmohan has bungled has gained ground along with the Left upping the ante. PR Dasmunsi has already spoken about the Left's "legitimate grievances" that need to be addressed. Others feel that this is as good a time as any to end proxy rule and, in case the Left still doesn't fall in line, go to battle with all dynastic guns firing.

The Left knows what it wants. It's now up to the Congress to either stand firm or wilt. Either way, it's the beginning of the end for the 14th Lok Sabha.

08-20-2007, 12:55 AM

QUOTEBe ready for 'any eventuality': BJP 
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi / Bangalore
As the crisis loomed over the Congress-led UPA camp in the light of the Left's tough stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal, the main Opposition BJP's top brass on Sunday reviewed the situation in order to gain political mileage.

A day after the Left's warning to the UPA Government against any discussions with the IAEA on safeguards in connection with the 123 Agreement, former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, leader of opposition LK Advani, party president Rajnath Singh and senior BJP leaders Jaswant Singh, Arun Jaitley and Arun Shourie held an almost two-hour meeting.

"We have discussed the political situation which may lead to early polls," said

BJP General Secretary Arun Jaitley, adding that his party was concerned about the crisis in Government, which he insisted has "paralysed" governance. He alleged that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's authority has been completely eroded.

"We (BJP) will continue to press issues relating to nuclear deal and (the release in Argentina of )Ottavio Quattrocchi in the coming week in parliament in order to put the government in the dock, " Jaitley added.

Meanwhile the main opposition party has asked its workers to be ready for "any eventuality" and even a snap poll to the Lok Sabha in the wake of the sharp divide between the ruling Congress and Left parties on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

"You must be ready for any eventuality as anything may happen at any time," senior BJP leader M Venkaiah Naidu told BJP workers in Banglore as part of a nation-wide programme on strengthening the party in the grass root.

"The UPA Government may collapse, it may prolong or may continue as a lame duck Government," Naidu said. Though the BJP is working towards the general election in 2009, it should be ready for a "snap poll", Naidu pointed out.

Noting that the Congress and the Communists were in a "Catch 22 situation", he said both sides were not following the "coalition dharma."

08-20-2007, 02:33 AM

QUOTESnap poll inevitable: Shiromani Akali Dal
Ludhiana: Mid-term election to the Lok Sabha is inevitable, SAD Secretary General and former Union Minister Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa said here on Sunday. The Congress and the Left had irreconciliable differences on the Indo-US civil nuclear deal and this would lead to snap poll in the country, he said.

08-20-2007, 02:38 AM

QUOTEPrepare for snap poll: Bardhan 
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
'If UPA goes ahead with deal, mid-term poll inevitable'
A day before the Left parties meet to formalise a joint position on the stand-off with the UPA over the India-US civil nuclear deal, the message coming form the comrades was far from comforting for the Government.Â Â

While CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury said after his meeting with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee that "there was no compromise formula and it depends on the Government what to decide", CPI general secretary AB Bardhan virtually gave a call to the cadre to prepare for mid-term polls.

"Governments come and go but country remains", Bardhan said in Ahmedabad, adding, "if there are general elections along with the Gujarat Assembly poll, the cadre have to be ready."

The message was loud and clear "if the UPA Government goes ahead with the deal, mid-term poll was inevitable."

Bardhan's grim warning to the Government was in sync with the hardening of stand within the Left on the crisis that has engulfed the UPA. Ahead of the Left Front meetings, several Left leaders seem reconciled to final parting of ways with the UPA Government.

"The crisis can be averted for the time being, but in the long run, we don't see a compromise with the UPA on the nuke deal issue. The Left-Congress relations will never be the same again," said a senior Left leader.

Sources said that with the hardliners calling the shot within the Left Front, on the menu of the leaders on Monday will primary be two agendas: Whether to withdraw support and let the Government fall, or keep the Government afloat for the time being by lending it issue-based support. A consensus was likely around the second option.

Sources said that few Left leaders were in favour of any compromise. The same hardline thinking prevailed even in the politburo meeting despite a section of the leaders from West Bengal arguing against precipitating the crisis, they said. Incidentally, CPI(M) patriarch Jyoti Basu had openly spoken against the possibility of withdrawal of support. But the CPI(M) resolution was nearly an ultimatum before formal withdrawal of support.

Out of this exercise, what we will get is just 20,000 MW of power and that too by 2020. For this, we cannot compromise the country's sovereignty and foreign policy."

Bardhan warned the UPA Government against beginning negotiations with the IAEA on an agreement on safeguards or with the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Asked if the Government should scrap the draft 123 agreement, he said such deals "need not be scrapped - they need not be implemented or operationalised".

link

08-20-2007, 02:41 AM

QUOTELeft gives four months to Government for withdrawal of support if it pushed ahead with deal

Govt to set up 11-member committee to look into Left concerns

Yechury idea discussed at Congress core group meet

Panel unlikely to offer any concrete solution

Except buying time for Govt to delay the inevitable 


Why not whole parliament? Why they are ignoring other parties? Are they not Indian?

08-20-2007, 11:09 PM

Left rejects compromise, mid-term polls likelyQUOTEThe IAEAâs next meeting is in September 2008. Sources tell CNN-IBN the Left parties have decided to wait till then and withdraw support if it talks with the IAEA.

A committe to study the nuclear deal could be set up but only after the Government decides not to take the ânext stepâ, said Raja.

The Government has already rejected suggestions that a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) study the nuclear deal. âAll parties have a right to give suggestions, but the Government has decided not to set up a JPC. We don't see a need for it,â said Parliamentary Affairs Minister P R Dasmunsi

Commies wants to stay in power without responsibility till Sept 2008 and after that they will start shouting "Wolf" to gain some votes.

08-20-2007, 11:36 PM

QUOTEThe message was loud and clear "if the UPA Government goes ahead with the deal, mid-term poll was inevitable."

If Left pulls out (I doubt they will), will Cong request support from BJP?

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