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Middle East: Discussion
#1
08 June 2004
<b>Saudi Oil Crown Slipping Away?</b>
By Peter Zeihan
Summary

<i>Attacks against expatriates working in the Saudi Arabian oil patch have accelerated in tempo and intensity during the past several months. If this trend is not reversed -- which is not likely -- Riyadh will slowly fall from its current position as the kingpin of global energy markets. Oil prices will be both higher and more volatile, Saudi social stability far less guaranteed and OPEC less a force to be reckoned with.</i>
.......
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#2
Looks like these fing Sauds are going to come crashing down

SAUDI Terrorists at work
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#3
Dubya's pipe dreams sabotaged

<b>A rocket slammed into a U.S. logistics base near Balad, 50 miles north of Baghdad, killing three U.S. soldiers and wounding 25 other people, including two civilian workers, the military said.</b>
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#4
Terror Group Beheads U.S. Hostage Johnson

It is a sad news and violent halal killing.

Three so called terrorist also shot down in Saudi Arabia.

Any bets on coup or change in power in SA.

My take- 6 months to 1.5 year.
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#5
Believe the current king is extremely sick undergoing treatment in some foreign country. If he kicks the bucket, there's going to be huge power struggle. Backroom fencing has already started. Remember reading one faction is led by US Saudi ambassador Bandar's kins, think the other side has some clergy/army backing. Wall St Journal had a lenghty article on this some time back.
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#6
There are over 250 wanna be King, over 2000 are also in queue. All together over 3000 candidates.

Seven main candidate for coming tussle -former Intelligence officer, Foreign Minister, Bandar, current half King, Apple 1/3 owner, Clergy and Bin Laden's guru.

First and last two candidates may come up with common candidate.
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#7
<b>The Wahhabi war against 'infidels' and flowers</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->I am scared," a Saudi man told me after the Khobar attacks. "There is no clear vision for where my country is heading. We want to progress, but we also want to live like the good Muslims did 1,400 years ago. We want to change, but we believe that change is the road to hell. We want the people to have a role in leading the country, but we don't want democracy. We want to have dialogue with the West, but our preachers are preaching every Friday that all Westerners, or non-Muslims, go to hell."
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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#8
I thought they had a crown prince - Abdullah somebody ?
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#9
The Saudi Paradox

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Among the four or five most powerful princes, two stand out: Crown Prince Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Nayef, the interior minister. Relations between these two leaders are visibly tense. <b>In the United States, Abdullah cuts a higher profile. But at home in Saudi Arabia, Nayef, who controls the secret police, casts a longer and darker shadow</b>. Ever since King Fahd's stroke in 1995, the question of succession has been hanging over the entire system, but neither prince has enough clout to capture the throne.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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#10
<!--QuoteBegin-manisht+Jun 18 2004, 04:45 PM-->QUOTE(manisht @ Jun 18 2004, 04:45 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--> Very sad news coming out of Saudi Arabia: American abuducted and held as hostage was beheaded by al-qaida. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Just in:
Saudi al-Qaida Leader Reportedly Killed

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Abdulaziz al-Moqrin is at the top of the list of suspects in Saudi Arabia and is believed to be the leader of the group calling itself al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which claimed responsibility for the beheading of American hostage Paul M. Johnson Jr.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Well, seems the terrorists are getting it back.
No details yet
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#11
<!--QuoteBegin-Viren+Jun 18 2004, 04:01 PM-->QUOTE(Viren @ Jun 18 2004, 04:01 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--> Believe the current king is extremely sick undergoing treatment in some foreign country. If he kicks the bucket, there's going to be huge power struggle. Backroom fencing has already started. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I thought the US may shore up Saudi like it is newly minted dame TSP. However, I think the death of the sultan may cause a shake up leading to a crash. In reality, I am still undecided as to whether this will really happen( We thought the same about TSP, but nothing like that seems to be likely soon). But many reliable sources are feeling the pulse in Saudi. I think we must follow the kingdom carefully for history may be in the making.
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#12
And I hope this time we are there to see some action.. <!--emo&:felx--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/flex.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='flex.gif' /><!--endemo-->
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#13
Received by e-mail
If this guy is really in the Kingdom of terror then it is interesting indeed!
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#14
<b>"The intifada is over according to Krauthammer"</b>
<b>Calmer times in Israel? </b>:Charles Krauthammer
June 18, 2004
WASHINGTON -- While no one was looking, something historic has happened in the Middle East. The Palestinian intifada is over, and the Palestinians have lost.

For Israel, the victory is bitter. The last four years of terrorism have killed almost 1,000 Israelis and maimed thousands of others. But Israel has won strategically. The intent of the intifada was to demoralize Israel, destroy its economy, bring it to its knees and thus force it to withdraw and surrender to Palestinian demands, just as Israel withdrew in defeat from southern Lebanon in May 2000.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->     First, Israel targeted terrorist leaders -- attacks so hypocritically denounced by Westerners who, at the same time, cheer the hunt for, and demand the head of, Osama bin Laden. The top echelon of Hamas and other terror groups has been either arrested, killed, or driven underground. The others are now so afraid of Israeli precision and intelligence -- the last Hamas operative to be killed by missile was riding a motorcycle -- that they are forced to devote much of their time and energy to self-protection and concealment.

     Second, the fence. Only about a quarter of the separation fence has been built, but its effect is unmistakable. The northern part is already complete, and attacks into northern Israel have dwindled to almost nothing.

     This success does not just save innocent lives. It changes the strategic equation of the whole conflict. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
........

But now Saudi Arabia is busy
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#15
> Three so called terrorist also shot down in Saudi Arabia.

Have any of you scene any TV new clipping showing dead bodies of these "shot" terrorist.

I think its all camel manure to keep Yankies and KKK's in good humour and current US admin is hand in glove with Saudi King by accepting Saudi claim.


NewsAsia/CNN/BBC none have show any terrorist body , and Al-Qaeda is already claimng that Saudi claims are false .


There was a very valid question by US senator ( Richard shellby ?) , why did Saudi police attack only after the murder ?
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#16
Saudis are now apeing Pakis
<b>Al Qaeda militants say they were helped by Saudi forces </b>

Islamic militants who abducted and beheaded American engineer Paul Johnson say sympathetic Saudi security forces aided their kidnapping operation with police uniforms and vehicles -- an allegation a top Saudi official denied.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/06/21/...ants/index.html
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#17
<b>Iran: British vessels confiscated</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran has confiscated three British vessels that had crossed into Iran's territorial waters and arrested eight sailors aboard the ships, the Iranian foreign ministry says.

The sailors are being interrogated, the ministry said Monday.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Seems like Iran want to create problems for Band of Brothers in Iraq. What is Iran objective?
Iran knows US can't expand further, they are already overstretched. But it can create WWII type of situation. This will increase oil price.
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#18
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Iran has confiscated three British vessels that had crossed into Iran's territorial waters and arrested eight sailors aboard the ships, the Iranian foreign ministry says.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
8 sailors from 3 vessels! Sounds more like a drunken sailor story.
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#19
Mudy > Seems like Iran want to create problems for Band of Brothers in Iraq. What is Iran objective?

May be the Father in Heaven this time has send some signals to buffoon Blair ..

Dont discount anything for now..
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#20
<b>SKorean has been beheaded by his Iraqi militant kidnappers</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The pan-Arab satellite channel Al-Jazeera broadcast a video tape on Tuesday night in which the kidnappers said they had killed Kim Sun-il. The South Korean Foreign Ministry confirmed he had been killed and American soldiers have found his body<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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