2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

[Guest]

Pawar had heavily invested in commodities, last year sudden price rise of Indian pulses and rice outside Indian was created by Pawar. India is still exporting pulses but now through private parties, all related to elite mafia.

[ramana]

Financial Times of London

Hindu militants call for suicide squads \

I think Bal Thackeray is the most unguided missile in the NDA. He will cause more hurt than any one else.

[ramana]

From Pioneer, 20 June 2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->LJP to go it alone, says Ram Vilas 

Amarnath Tewary | Patna

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) will go to polls alone in the forthcoming general election. On his party's future plans, Union Steel, Chemicals and Fertilisers Minister Ram Vilas Paswan on Wednesday said, "I had been betrayed several times and, therefore, there would be no pre-poll alliance this time."

The LJP chief got his brother Pashupati Kumar Paras elected as the State party chief.

<b>Paswan's party has always been considered as a family party with his brothers and relatives holding party posts and getting party tickets. </b>

Taking cue from UP Chief Minister Mayawati, Paswan is also trying to knit together a caste combination, though his thrust is dalit politics. "Though Bihar politics is mired in caste equations, I vouch for the support of all castes, from everyone," he said recently.

Of the Bihar's triumvirate -- Lalu Prasad and Nitish Paswan - only the LJP chief has not become the Chief Minister of the State. Paswan believes its is his turn this time.

Although in the present political situation, the LJP doesn't enjoy that much support to come to power on its own in the State,<b> Paswan's party could make or mar prospects of many opposition candidates and could play the role of a kingmaker.</b>

According to party leaders, Paswan has identified altogether 17 seats. Addressing his party workers at the concluding day of his party's organisational meet, Paswan said he has started identifying suitable candidates for some of seats where the LJP would be contesting. <b>Revealing the names of constituencies like Araria, Purnia, Supaul, Khagaria, Bettiah, Ujiarpur, Motihari, Muzaffarpur, Gaya, Gopalgunj, Nawada and Sheohar, the LJP chief said he would personally speak to the party workers from these districts from June 21 to select candidates.</b>

"After the general election there will be Assembly poll in the year 2010 and this time we will capture power in Bihar," said Paswan.

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Didnt Mudy say Paswan is the key in some states in North India?

[Bodhi]

can influence about 5-7 lok sabha seats in bihar on his own at most. however can mean cutting votes of UPA (Cong + RJD) for at least 25 more seats.

[ramana]

From Pioneer, 20 june, 2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Capital khabar



Sidharth Mishra

Surveying survey

<b>With polls round the corner, it's time for the more savvy among the Congress leaders to get into survey mode.</b> Saddled with equally powerful satraps as co-coordinator for the States, the laptop generation AICC in-charges are all set to generate their own surveys to push their perception. Minister of State for Urban Development Ajay Maken for Orissa, who now has former Union Minister Paban Singh Ghaowar breathing down his neck, has commissioned one such survey. The fee sanctioned for the survey has raised quite a few eyebrows. <b>But the insiders claim that the results of the survey may prove to be of no use as the Congress High Command has commissioned the leading survey firms AC Nielsen and GFK Mode to carryout independent surveys and would go by it.</b>

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[Guest]

Paswan's direction gives clear indication what is happening in politics? He is very smart calculative person who want to stay in power.
With his current posturing, I can conclude he is predicting nether BJP or Congress will get clear majority, at this stage they both have 50-50 chance. So if he go solo he can attach to power again with even 3-4 MPs and can ask for plum ministry.
With heart problem, I don’t think he will be campaigning much.

[Guest]

<b>BSP withdraws support to UPA Government</b>

Ok, should we start countdown.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Main Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party wants the "illustrious team" of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P Chidambaram to "quit and spare the nation". The BJP told the economist duo: "The nation has seen enough of you, now please quit." Party spokesman Rajiv Pratap Rudy took potshots at Chidambaram, who had said in one of his Budget speeches -- "Main hoon na" (I am here to help) -- and asked the Finance Minister, "Where are you?"</b> <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>'Expect next general elections in November' </b>
Pioneer.com
PTI | Palakkad
Senior BJP leader M Venkaiah Naidu on Saturday said his party expects the next general elections to be held in November as the fall of the Congress-led UPA Government is imminent.<b> Talking to reporters here, Naidu claimed that the UPA Government would fall in August and elections would be held in November</b>.

Referring to the inflationary trend in the country, Naidu said the Centre could not blame the inflation as a global phenomena and it was the "creation of the Centre's wrong economic priorities."

On Indo-US nuclear deal, Naidu said the BJP would oppose the deal that would "harm the nation's interest. The BJP will not allow any deal to materialise if it hurts country's interest," he said.

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[acharya]

“Beginning of the end-game”

Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI: The withdrawal of support by the Bahujan Samaj Party to the ruling UPA alliance is the start of the end-game for the ruling coalition at the Centre, the Bharatiya Janata Party said on Saturday.

“The UPA is no longer seen as a bankable cheque,” BJP spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad said here. Not surprised at the announcement by the BSP leader and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Mayawati, he said the UPA would disintegrate in the days to come.

The main Opposition party is adopting a wait-and-watch stance, hoping that it will have to do little to bring the UPA regime to an end.

---

[Guest]

<b>NDA to pick up parties if UNPA gets unbundled</b>

NEW DELHI: The Samajwadi Party’s tilt towards the Congress camp will lead to the collapse of the year-old United National Progressive Alliance. With a key member of this anti-Congress grouping changing its position, the remaining constituents are certain to chart their own course.

For the NDA, the recent turn of events provides an opportunity to build alliances with some UNPA members. The BJP, which believes that the general election is going to be an aggregate of state elections, could attempt to strike deals with some UNPA constituents.

Already, talks are underway for an alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD. Although the BJP’s state unit has expressed displeasure at this possible partnership, it is unlikely that the party’s central unit will bow to the state unit’s demands, especially given the dismal performance of the BJP in the three assembly constituencies of Adampur, Gohana and Indri, where the party failed to win a single seat.

Another possible partner that the BJP would be looking at is the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

Though the AGP was part of the NDA in 1999, it failed to win even a single seat. In 2004, no alliance materialised between the two as the state BJP unit convinced the central leadership that the Assam electorate was disillusioned with the Congress and the AGP. However, this time around, an alliance may be on the cards between the two. For that, however, the BJP will require to tone down its ‘Hindu agenda’ . With Assam’s nearly 31% being Muslims, the AGP will not want to risk aligning with BJP if the latter does not soften its ‘Hindu agenda’.

It’s a risk that may consolidate the ‘Muslim vote’ in favour of the Congress or the Assam United Democratic Front — a conglomerate of 20 religious and linguistic minorities led by state president of Jamiat Ulema-E Hind, Maulana Badaruddin Ajmal. Parties like AGP could take heart from the stand taken by the BJP on the Shiv Sena’s idea of ‘Hindu suicide squads’.

Another component of the UNPA which the BJP could seek to woo is the Jharkhand Vikas Manch, headed by Babulal Marandi. In Andhra Pradesh, though previously an NDA supporter, the TDP is unlikely to tie up or support the BJP for fear of losing support from Muslim voters. However, the entry of actor Chiranjeevi into the political scene with a new party could change calculations. There is speculation that the Left may desert the TDP for the film actor. However, it is too early to say which way things will go here.

As for AIADMK, its leader Ms J Jayalalithaa is unlikely to lay her cards on the table this early. The BJP is seen wooing Ms Jayalalithaa’s party, but a clearer picture is expected to emerge only closer to elections.

[Guest]

<b>Split in TDP</b>

In a major setback to the main opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh, senior leaders and former ministers T Devender Goud and E Peddi Reddy resigned from the party Monday

[ramana]

I was talking to an older genleman from India who was very amused by the nautanki/dramabazi of Shri MMS and his refusal to see anyone ala Kaikeyi! His wonderment was India was reduced to individual's vain glory.

[Guest]

He is showing all tantrums, at this moment middle class want to kick him out yesterday. He is behaving like his mother-in-law.
His legacy will be failed administration , runied economy, runied nternational goodwill and converted India into terrorist heaven.

[acharya]

ANALYSIS-India may see snap poll after nuclear deal end game
Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:26am BST

By Alistair Scrutton

NEW DELHI, June 26 (Reuters) -<b> After more than four years of alliance, the Indian government and its communist allies appear closer than ever to a split over a civilian nuclear deal with the United States, which could spark early general elections.

If the split happens -- and many think it is a matter of weeks -- the government will quickly need to find another party to provide it with a parliamentary majority, or face the risk of early elections before scheduled May, 2009 polls.</b>

It is possible India will soon enter months of political uncertainty and electioneering, putting in jeopardy the chances of tough and decisive measures from the government to deal with record inflation, rising rates and signs of a slowing economy.

After years of communists blocking market reforms from financial sector liberalisation to privatisation, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may have put his foot down over the nuclear deal, determined to leave office with some sort of legacy.

Frustrated from months of delays, Singh knows time is running out for the deal to be approved before President George W. Bush leaves office.

Singh sees the deal giving India access to U.S. nuclear fuel and technology and allowing closer trade and diplomatic ties with Washington. Communists see India becoming a pawn of Washington and have threatened to withdraw support if the pact goes ahead.

"The division between the government and the communists is wider than ever and unlikely to be bridged," said Pran Chopra, a political analyst.

The pessimism follows Wednesday's meeting between the two sides. Party leaders left grim-faced after fruitless talks.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> <b>BJP announces 1st list of candidates for LS polls </b>
PTI | New Delhi
Posted online: June 26, 2008
BJP on Thursday announced its first list of candidates for the upcoming Lok sabha elections, fielding its P<b>rime Ministerial candidate LK Advani from Gandhinagar in Gujarat.</b>

"The countdown to the end of the UPA rule has begun from today. Our Prime Ministerial candidate LK Advani would be contesting from the Gandhinagar parliamentary seat," party General Secretary Anant Kumar said while announcing the list at the party headquarters here.

<b>The list also included the names of five other candidates -- Navjot Singh Sidhu (Amritsar), Vinod Khanna (Gurdaspur), Shripad Y Naik (Panaji), Anurag Thakur (Hamirpur) and TPS Rawat (Pauri).</b>

The decision was taken at the meeting of Central Election Committee (CEC) here today, he added.

The CEC chaired by party President Rajnath Singh was followed by a meeting of the Central Election Management Committee and the party's core group.

<b>"The present political scenario and the ensuing instability in the centre was discussed threadbare. The core group also delved upon the situation arising if the Manmohan Singh Government was reduced to a minority," </b>sources said.

Today's meetings were attended by<b> party's senior leaders LK Advani, Venkiah Naidu, Murli Manohar Joshi, Vinay Katiyar, Anant Kumar and Sushma Swaraj among others.</b>

The party plans to announce all seats by the end of August and the state units have been asked to send their inputs on candidate selection by then, party leader Venkiah Naidu told reporters after the meeting.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> <!--emo&:roll--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ROTFL.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='ROTFL.gif' /><!--endemo--> <!--emo&:rocker--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rocker.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='rocker.gif' /><!--endemo-->

[Guest]

www.deccan.com

UP, Bihar may hold the key to next Lok Sabha
By Arun Nehru

The public is remarkably well-informed about the rise in foodgrain prices over the past three years and the global crisis generated by the surge in oil prices and I think, at this stage, no one in particular is interested in "sermons" or a blame game. The people expect sensible and firm governance from the ruling combine. This is a window of opportunity for the Opposition as price rise is a major issue and, combined with high expectation levels and the attendant anti-incumbency factor for the government in power, there is much to be done at all levels. The UPA is under pressure and the Congress and its allies have lost the Assembly elections in Bihar, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Tripura and now Karnataka, besides Meghalaya and Nagaland, over the last two years. The situation in Delhi is difficult as chief minister Sheila Dikshit may find it difficult to win a third term, and in Jharkhand a few Independents run the government and the Congress-JMM faces total disaster. The situation in Tamil Nadu for the DMK and the allies (many have left) is weak and in Andhra Pradesh, the situation is fluid with the Telangana issue and the revival of the TDP. Maharashtra is going the Gujarat way and a Shiv Sena-BJP majority is on the cards. Rajasthan (chief minister Vasundhara Raje has gained), Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are BJP states and even if the Congress wins them, it will not compensate for the loss in other states. The BJP and the Congress are both theoretically between 100-120 seats but things are changing rapidly and the NDA or the "third front" look to gain on the UPA. It is no surprise then that none of the allies want early elections (November 2008 instead of February 2009), but do three months really make a difference?

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 seats, are the keys to success. The BSP and Ms Mayawati will win 45-50 seats, the Samajwadi Party will win 20-25 seats and its alliance with the Congress, if it materialises, will help the Congress retain four or five strategic seats (Amethi, Rae Bareli, Rampur, Shahjehanpur and Jhansi). The BJP may fare better if upper caste votes start migrating from the Congress after an alliance with the SP, but I do not see the BJP and the Congress getting more than 10-12 seats between them. Bihar has 40 seats — Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)-BJP alliance will sweep the polls and Lalu Yadav will be lucky to retain even 10 seats in the state. In UP, the Congress has been losing its base from 1989, and in 1991 its alliance with the SP resulted in a loss of the minority vote to the SP and the dalit vote to the BSP. A sizeable number of brahmin and thakur votes migrated to the BSP and the SP over the years as the general voter, like a political party or a leader, wants a share in the "fruits of victory". The Congress and the BJP will both need a decade to regain lost ground, and for the moment both the BSP and the SP look strong. Both are run by "mass leaders" and whilst one may gain over the other in an election, it would be foolish for them to take each other for granted. The BSP will align with no one as it has an all-India vote and after the elections will go with anyone as it will have the "numbers" to get its rightful share. The SP today may align with the Congress for a "strategic" reason, but will stay with the Left and keep its options for the future open.

The nuclear issue has no value in electoral terms and the Congress is making a mistake in making this an issue. Media reports of the Prime Minister threatening to resign (inspired leaks to the media) will give the impression that he wants to abandon the sinking ship as inflation and price rise are major issues at the moment. Logic and fact at this stage are not important compared to "impressions" of good governance, and what we need at this time is not "panic" but firm and effective governance. My personal feeling is that the nuclear deal is critical for the future, and despite all the postures taken by the United States on the "time schedule", I don’t believe the situation is lost if passed at a later stage. The US will also gain in financial terms, and after the current economic crisis, which is far from over (they may lose close to $2 trillion), they need the benefits accruing from the political and economic structure in India to sustain their economy in the future. The relevance of "cash flow" does not only apply to financial institutions but to governments as well, and if we do a forward study over the next decade, the notional cash flow generated by the BRIC countries will be crucial for the overall development of the global economy.

We have extraordinary talent at all levels and this is the time for that talent to perform and to deal with the current crisis. There are media reports and TV discussions about the Prime Minister threatening to resign. I do not know who has circulated these "silly" rumours as we are a country of a billion plus and there is no shortage of talent or numbers to fill any vacancy, and in politics, the higher you go, there are always "scores" of competent people ready to handle the "burden of governance." Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has integrity and a sound understanding of economics, but he lacks political clout (he is yet to win a Lok Sabha election) and, sadly for him, in the last six months of the government, he has had to deal with political issues and display his political authority. I think it is time for the Congress to wake up and start justifying its existence as the head of the UPA by fielding its political "superstars" as price rise and inflation are not likely to taper off till the elections and you need the services of an eminent astrologer to predict the direction of oil prices in the next three months.

[Guest]

<b> Sonia, Mulayam in secret meeting</b>

Javed M. Ansari
Sunday, June 29, 2008 02:59 IST

The govt. needs SP on board if the Left withdraws support over the nuclear deal

NEW DELHI: The Congress party’s efforts to rope in the Samajwadi Party to bolster its numbers in the Lok Sabha in case of a showdown with the Left over the nuclear deal has gathered momentum following a secret meeting between Sonia Gandhi and Mulayam Singh Yadav.

According to a highly placed SP source, the two met around three weeks ago at the New Delhi residence of a well-wisher who does not want to be identified. It was a cloak-and-dagger affair with both leaders leaving their securitymen behind to avoid being spotted.

There are also reports that they met again on Thursday afternoon. There is no direct confirmation of this meeting but both of them went missing from their residences around the same time which has fueled speculation that an understanding has been hammered out.

While the SP’s 39 MPs do not make up for the loss of the Left’s 62 MPs in case the Marxists pull out because of the nuclear deal, Congress number crunchers are confident of making up the gap with three MPs of

Deve Gowda’s JD(S), three MPs of Ajit Singh’s RLD and some singletons from other small parties.

Together with the new would-be supporters, the UPA expects to touch 273, giving the Manmohan Singh government a slender majority of one. This rag-tag solution to resolve the nuclear impasse is one of the options being being considered by the Congress.
It may be difficult to keep the government afloat for an extended period of time with this kind of fractured support, but it will tide the UPA over in a confidence vote, if matters come to a head with the Left during the monsoon session. Then, as a majority government, it can proceed to operationalise the nuclear deal.

The Congress is looking at other game plans for the nuclear deal. However, an understanding with the SP has a spin-off for the Lok Sabha polls and after. Both parties are hoping to take on the Mayawati juggernaut in UP with a pre-poll alliance or seat adjustment.

For the record, SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav denied on Friday that the Congress had approached him for support on the nuclear deal. The SP-Congress tango will become official only after Mulayam’s Man Friday, Amar Singh, gives his stamp of approval. Singh is expected back from the US on Monday morning. There is another hurdle to cross. The UNPA, of which the SP is a part, is slated to meet on July 3. Mulayam has said he will decide his future course of action only after that meeting.

[acharya]

<b>‘UPA messed up economic scenario’</b>
Staff Reporter
Left parties also responsible for inflation, says Venkaiah Naidu
Crucial meet: Senior BJP leader M. Venkaiah Naidu addressing party State executive committee meeting in Karimnagar on Saturday.

KARIMNAGAR: BJP senior leader M. Venkaiah Naidu said that the UPA government is surviving on the ventilator support extended by the Left parties.

The UPA government had messed up the economic scenario, failed on agricultural policy, besides internal and external security aspects. People do not want this government to continue in power. If it continues further, it would be a loss to the country, he said.

Delivering the inaugural address at the two-day BJP State executive committee meeting here on Saturday, he said people would not be worried if the government collapses as it had failed on all fronts.

Launching a scathing attack on “Trimurthis” - Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Montek Singh Ahluwalia and P Chidambaram for failing to control inflation, he said that the increasing inflation is “Brahmastram” for the BJP in the coming elections.

Refuting the government claims on the prevalence of inflation throughout the world, he asked why there was no inflation in the European countries and the neighbouring Malayasia, Japan and other countries in spite of increase of petrol prices. He charged that the Left parties were also responsible for the inflation.

Reiterating that the BJP would definitely speak on Hindutva, he said that they were not scared of vote bank politics.

On the party organisational front, he said that the national party had constituted election management committee and released the first list of probable candidates. He said that the committee would meet again on July 11 to announce second list of candidates. He said that they would finalise the entire list of candidates for parliament by August.

Party State president Bandaru Dattatreya, leaders Bangaru Laxman, Ch. Vidayasagar Rao, N. Indrasena Reddy, V. Rama Rao and others were also present.

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&<_<--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /><!--endemo--> The BSP and Ms Mayawati will win 45-50 seats, the Samajwadi Party will win 20-25 seats
Arun Nehru's estimate can go wrong if people of UP show the same sagacity and political awakening as they did during state elections; in that case BJP may stand to gain.
<!--emo&:ind--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/india.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='india.gif' /><!--endemo-->