http://www.livemint.com/2008/10/05220849/C...larity-giv.html
<b>Chouhanâs popularity gives BJP the edge in MP</b>
The ruling BJP is on a strong wicket in the state, mainly due to the popularity of its chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has made a strong impact on voters in the last two-and-a-half years
With the Election Commission set to give dates for key state elections later this month, itâs time for this column to start gathering specific feedback on how various parties stack up in different states that are set to go to polls.
Having accurately called the state elections in Uttar Pradesh last year and later Gujarat and Karnataka, the Bottom Line column hopes it can provide readers with a similar early and accurate prediction. While it is early in the game, letâs start with Madhya Pradesh today.
My current reading from the state suggests that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on a strong wicket in the state, mainly due to the popularity of its chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has made a strong impact on voters in the last two-and-a-half years that he has been chief minister.
But Chouhan remains one of Indiaâs least known and unexplored chief ministers and so I headed to Tikamgarh and Chhatarpur districts of Madhya Pradesh where, last week, he was on the last lap of a five-week-long tour, dubbed Jan Ashirvad Yatra, or a trip to to seek peopleâs blessings, for a renewed mandate.
At many small urban locations in Tikamgarh district, which is the native district of Uma Bharati, a former BJP leader and its tormentor in the state now, Chouhanâs rallies attracted some 20,000 strong crowds, mostly comprising young people as well as the poor, with a sprinkling of enthusiastic women.
I asked several people who were at a public meeting in Tikamgarh as to why they came to hear him.
Here is what Mahendra Singh Lodhi, a self-described strong Congress sympathizer had to tell me: âChouhan is the best chief minister that the state has had for a long time and he has done in a short period what others could not in decades.â
That summed up the public sentiment in the state, often cutting across party lines, with many voters saying they appreciate Chouhanâs track record as chief minister, his simplicity, accessibility and frequent travels to their districts.
As Chouhanâs campaign continued into the night, at 1am, I found nearly 5,000 people waiting eagerly
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For what it is worth
<!--emo&:ind--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/india.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='india.gif' /><!--endemo--> It gives me great pleasure to be with all of you this morning. My hearty congratulations to Shri Gopinath Munde, Prof. Bal Apte, Shri Vinay Sahasrabuddhe and others at the Rambhau Mhalgi Prabodhini firstly for organizing this seminar and, secondly, for organizing it in New Delhi. The Prabodhini regularly holds seminars and training workshops on important topics for social and political activists at its beautiful campus near Mumbai. This is perhaps for the first that it is holding a major event in the national capital. I look forward to the day when the Prabodhini can have a full-fledged centre operating in Delhi.
India is the worst victim of terrorism in the world
The subject of this seminar is highly topical. Over-familiarity with a problem sometimes lulls oneâs awareness about its seriousness. Therefore, it may surprise many to know that the problem of terrorism has persisted for nearly half the period of the life of independent India. Since the closing yeas of the 1970s, India has been in the vortex of foreign-sponsored terrorism, which has claimed nearly 80,000 lives, both civilian and of security forces â in Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, North-Eastern states and in the rest of India. There is no country in the world which has been a victim of terrorist onslaught for so long, and which has suffered such enormous loss.
If a menace has continued for so long, it means that its perpetrators have a definite purpose, a definite goal. We in the BJP had correctly assessed right in the beginning that the goal of terrorists and their patrons abroad was not only to threaten the common man and the civil society, not just to create ordinary law and order disturbances , but to endanger the very unity and security of the nation. What is happening in India today has vindicated our assessment.
History will not pardon us if we fail
In the history of nations, it is important to know what challenges they face. But it is far more important to know how they respond to these challenges. Nations oblivious to the threats that eat into their vitals run an imminent danger of losing their ability to protect themselves. The warning bells are loud and clear that, even though the nationâs internal security today stands seriously threatened, our response lacks political will. India does not have a seamlessly integrated counter-terrorism strategy backed by resolute operational capabilities.
There is one more thing to be said about internal security challenges. These do not manifest suddenly, nor do they mature overnight. The ominous signals they send over a prolonged period of time can be noticed unmistakably. However, if we choose not to notice them, or are incapable of taking self-protective action, history will not absolve us. It is our charge against the Congress party that it is keeping its eyes wide shut, choosing not to see, nor to strike, all for the fear of losing its vote-bank.
As far as the BJP is concerned, let me make it absolutely clear that we shall never conduct ourselves in such a short-sighted way that history would hold us guilty of not doing our duty at the right time and in the right manner. We are prepared to make any sacrifices for defending the unity and ensuring the security of our Motherland. Our vision is not limited by the considerations of where will our Party be after the next elections. Rather, it extends to caring about where will India be after a hundred years, after a thousand years.
In the last millennium, India suffered many a blow. In the last century, India suffered blood-soaked Partition on account of a pernicious ideology. Therefore, all political parties and all sections of our society should so conduct themselves that no evil power, external or internal, can set its eyes on destabilizing, debilitating and dividing India.
Terrorism: Invisible enemyâs low-cost, asymmetrical war
For such strong protective force to emerge, it is necessary to know that in todayâs world, failure to protect internal security has emerged as the most potent threat to the unity and integrity of nations, to the stability of their polity and to the protection their Constitutional values. In post-World War period, failure to deal with internal security challenges, as opposed to foreign aggressions, has been responsible for the degradation of a large number of nation-states. Most states when confronted with serious internal threats thought it to be a passing phase and allowed the drift to reach a point where retrieval was no longer possible.
Quite often, the adversarial forces won not because of their own strength but because of the weaknesses and mistakes of the regimes that were hit. Thus, history has a big lesson for us and it would be tragic if we failed to learn from past mistakes, both of our own and of others.
An important lesson that we in India should learn â this lesson is indeed globally relevant â is that conventional wars are becoming increasingly cost-ineffective. As instruments of achieving political and strategic objectives, their outcome is unpredictable â and often, counter-productive. Hence, foreign aggressions today come disguised as proxy wars in the form of terrorism and other forms of violence. The enemy targets internal fault-lines for furthering his strategic and political objectives. Even less powerful nations are able to exercise this low-cost sustainable option, giving rise to the new doctrine of asymmetric warfare.
We can see this clearly from what both Pakistan and Bangladesh have been doing to us. Neither can match Indiaâs military strength. Yet, both have been threatening India with cross-border terrorism.
This warfare is waged by an invisible enemy, for whom the civil society is both a source of sustenance and the target. The enemy exploits the liberties, freedom, technological facilities and infrastructure to his advantage, making even the more powerful, better equipped security agencies feel helpless.
Maligning of security forces: A dangerous new trend
Maligning the security forces is often a deliberate ploy employed by the civil society supporters of terrorist outfits. Unfortunately, it sometimes influences the thinking of even well-meaning human rights activists. However, it should not be forgotten that our security forces work under extremely difficult circumstances. The rest of society can sleep peacefully only because of the diligent service rendered by our police, paramilitary and Armed Forces. I fully agree that innocent persons should not be harassed and penalised. But let us spare a thought for this question: What will happen to our society, to our Nation, if the morale of our security forces is allowed to be weakened?
Sadly, this is precisely what has happened in recent times. What is sadder is that leaders of the Congress party and the UPA Government have allowed this denigration of our security forces to take place in the mistaken belief that those who are targeting our uniformed forces are defenders of âsecularismâ. Their thinking about secularism has become so warped that anybody who targets the BJP becomes their friend.
For example, there is this book âKhaki and the Ethnic Violence in Indiaâ by Omar Khalidi, an Indian scholar based in America, which provided the inspiration for the Sachar Committee to seek a communal census in the Armed Forces.
Another example is a book by Arundhati Roy, a well-known author, on the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001. The book argues, quite nonsensically, that the attack was not carried out by terrorists but orchestrated by the security forces themselves with prior knowledge of the leadership of the NDA Government. Her recent statement that âIndia needs Azadi from Kashmir as much as Kashmir needs azadi from Indiaâ is seditious. The intellectual and literary community should strongly condemn such anti-national pronouncements, which are being given legitimacy by pseudo-secularists.
Minorityism has gripped the Congress mindset
Here is yet another example of how the UPA Government has chosen to be influenced by the sinister and sustained campaign launched by such people. In spite of a Supreme Court verdict, it has not carried out the death sentence on Afzal Guru, who has been convicted for his role in the terrorist attack on Parliament. His was no ordinary crime. It was an offence of hitting at the countryâs legislature, the highest seat of Indiaâs Constitutional authority, which symbolizes its sovereignty and democratic polity. Not even the national outrage on this issue has dented the UPA Governmentâs apathy. Not even the extraordinary decision of the families of the martyred security personnel to return the gallantry awards has made it act. Such indeed is the grip of minorityism on the Congress mindset today.
The same mindset has dictated the Congress partyâs anti-national response to the issue of unchecked infiltration of Bangladeshis into Assam and other parts of the country. I was in Guwahati last week, where, among others, I met Shri Jaideep Saikia, an eminent Assamese scholar who has written a widely acclaimed book âTerror Sans Frontiers: Islamist Militancy in North East Indiaâ. The book is indeed an eye-opener, a strong warning against a problem which the Supreme Court itself, while striking down the IMDT Act as unconstitutional, has described as âexternal aggressionâ. The UPA Governmentâs response to this external aggression is simply to turn a blind eye.
Once again, the same mindset has dictated the UPA Governmentâs decision not to give approval to the anti-terror laws passed by the Assemblies of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, on the lines of an identical Act that exists in Maharashtra.
I can understand a government not succeeding despite making its best efforts. But I cannot but strongly indict that government which does not take even a single positive step at the legislative, political, administrative or operational levels to a counter threat which is so profusely bleeding the nation.
Stigmatising any faith in the fight against terror is wrong
Friends, no campaign of terrorism that has continued for so long can be without an ideological motive. Recognising the anti-India ideological driving force behind terrorism, and evolving a proper nationalist ideological response to it, is critical to achieving long-term success. Here I would like to state two things emphatically. Firstly, no religion and no religious community can and should be blamed for the criminal acts of some individuals belonging to that community. Stigmatising any community in the fight against terrorism is wrong, counter-productive, and must be condemned.
At the same time, it is equally important to recognize that religious extremism of a certain kind provides the ideological fervour and outward justification for terrorism and separatism. After all, religion was indeed misinterpreted and misused to construct the Two-Nation theory, which had disastrous consequences for India, for both Hindus and Muslims. The ideology behind the ongoing war of terrorism against India is a continuation of the separatist ideology that created Pakistan. Which is why, the anti-India forces in Pakistan have sponsored cross-border terrorism as a deliberate policy to achieve Kashmirâs secession from India, and also to weaken India in many different ways.
In recent years, an important new experiment has been introduced into this policy of cross-border terrorism. A section of Indian youth, misguided and exploited by their mentors abroad and radicalized by an interpretation of Islam that is propagated by Al Qaeda, have been inveigled into the vortex of terrorism. SIMI and Indian Mujahideen have emerged as the face of indigenized terror. Their literature speaks volumes about their aversion for the very Idea of a secular, plural and democratic India, and also about their resolve to destroy India as we know it.
Contrast between NDA and UPA Governments
How did the NDA Government deal with SIMI? And how has the UPA Government dealt with it? I shall not go into all the well-known details, except to say that the contrast is stark. The contrast is between one alliance that cares for India and the other that cares only for its vote-bank. So much so that two Cabinet ministers in the UPA Government had the audacity to publicly defend SIMI, which is banned as a terrorist organization, and the Prime Minister did not even upbraid them!
This contrast is also evident in the manner in which the two alliances have dealt with the issue of a strong anti-terrorism law. In a country that has suffered so much due to terrorism with international operational and financial linkages, the need for an effective anti-terrorism law ought to be so self-evident as to preclude any divisive debate over it. After all, the BJP supported the TADA Bill when Rajiv Gandhiâs Government introduced it in Parliament. Without TADA, some of the culprits in Rajiv Gandhiâs murder case could not have been chargesheeted. When the NDA Government assumed office, TADA had already ceased to exist. Therefore, we legislated POTA.
One of the first acts of the UPA Government in 2004 was to repeal POTA. As a matter of fact, the war against terror figured very low in UPAâs Common Minimum Programme. The CMP did not mention a single step to check trans-border infiltration, choking terrorâs sources of funding, and smuggling of weapons and explosives, etc. The Governmentâs weak-kneed approach, as was inevitable, proved fatal in course of time. It not only emboldened the extremists groups, but also brought down the efficacy of countryâs security apparatus. The momentum generated by the series of initiatives taken by the NDA government to strengthen national security, particularly the internal security, was lost within a year.
During the first year in office, the UPA Government enjoyed the fruits of the efforts of the previous Government and, as a result, not a single incident of terrorism occurred outside J&K. But in the last three years the country has been brought to a pass where the terrorists are bleeding it with the frequency, place and time of their choice. There is mushrooming of sleeper cells and subversive modules of terrorists, both indigenous and foreign, in different parts of the country. As a result, every citizen of the country from Kashmir to Kanyakumari today feels insecure about his safety.
POTA remained in existence from September 2001 till December 2004. During this period, only eight incidents of terrorist violence, including the attack on Parliament and on Akshardham Temple in Gandhingar, took place in Indiaâs hinterland, leading to 119 deaths. Contrast it with what happened after POTA was repealed: The footprint of terrorism has grown alarmingly larger in the past four years. Jammu, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Samjhauta Express in Haryana, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Malegaon, Jaipur, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Delhi â¦and, in the latest attack, serial blasts rocked Agartala in Tripura just two days ago. During this period, 625 persons have been killed and 2,011 injured, depicting a five fold increase in those killed and injured. It is the same country, same people, same police and same intelligence agencies; what then explains this unprecedented increase? The answer is very simple: Weak laws have emboldened the terrorists and appeasement has failed to change their intentions.
Congress cacophony about anti-terror law
Since the serial bomb blasts in New Delhi on 13 September 2008, peopleâs pressure on the Government to enact a strong anti-terror law has greatly intensified. But the manner in which senior leaders of the UPA Government and the Congress party have responded to this demand is pathetic.
* On 17th September, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, while addressing the Governorâs Conference, said: âWe are actively considering legislation to further strengthen the substantive anti-terrorism law in line with the global consensus on the fight against terrorism.â
Earlier, The Hindu reported on 13th September: âIn what is seen as the UPA government speaking with different voices over the need for States enacting tough anti-terror laws, the Union Home Ministry has not taken kindly to the suggestion of the National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan favouring the Gujarat governmentâs proposal to have its own law to deal with terrorist activities and organised crime. The NSAâs suggestion was contained in a letter which he recently wrote to the Home Ministry. He reportedly saw no reason to turn down the request of the Gujarat government to have an anti-terror law. He also reportedly cited demands by a number of senior police officers both at the Central and State levels for enacting a comprehensive, tough anti-terror law. Mr. Narayanan did not see anything wrong in supporting such a demand.â
The Administrative Reforms Commission, appointed by the Government under the chairmanship of senior Congress leader Shri Veerappa Moily, strongly supported the need for stringent anti-terrorist law. Speaking to the media on 17th September, he said that âa strong anti-terror law with equally strong safeguards to prevent its misuse is needed.â
* On 24th September, Congress general secretary Shri Rahul Gandhi said, âThere should be a strong law to deal with terror. A powerful law, not a failed law. POTA is a failed law.â
In spite of these pronouncements, what is the net result? âNo, no, we do not need a new law. Existing laws, if strengthened, are enough to fight terror.â
How can India be safe under a Government that has no mind of its own, that speaks in so many voices, and that is led by a Prime Minister who has an office but no authority? It is difficult to find out who runs this Government and who takes the decisions.
Our commitment: To make India terror-free
Friends, there is no point any longer in demanding anything from this spineless and visionless Government. As they say in Hindi, the ulti ginati of this Government (reverse counting of its days in office) has begun. The people of India will dethrone the UPA rulers whenever the next Parliamentary elections are held.
However, this seminar is certainly a proper occasion for me to present some of our concrete promises, commitments and ideas to make India safe from terror.
1. If voted to power, the NDA will re-enact POTA. The critics of POTA have so far been unable to show a single shortcoming in it. Therefore, the least we expect from our friends in the Congress party is that, now that many of its senior functionaries have spoken in favour of a strong anti-terror law, they should support re-enactment of POTA in the 15th Lok Sabha.
I am saying this because the time has come to treat the fight against terrorism as a national issue requiring broad national consensus. It is in this spirit that I recently I wrote to former President Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, wholeheartedly supporting his suggestion for a bipartisan approach to combat terrorism.
2. The BJP favours setting up a federal anti-terror agency, which has become absolutely necessary for evolving effective coordination between the Centre and the States â and also among States themselves â in intelligence gathering, intelligence exchange, action, investigation, prosecution and planning and execution of preventive operations.
3. The Vajpayee government, for the first time since Independence, had formulated an integrated policy for national security. A Group of Ministers, supported by expertsâ task forces (I had the privilege of heading this GoM), had made nearly 300 comprehensive recommendations for completely overhauling Indiaâs security apparatus and management in the areas of Defence, Intelligence, Internal Security and Border Management. The UPA Government has shown callous neglect towards implementation of these recommendations. The next NDA Government will take up this task with the highest priority.
4. Implementation of the recommendations of the Malimath Committee on overhauling the Criminal Justice System will be done in a timebound manner.
5. The chain of Indiaâs anti-terrorism apparatus can be only as strong as its weakest link. Today one of its weakest links is the local police station and its intelligence gathering capabilities. Therefore, modernization of the police force with adequate Central assistance, which had been started by the NDA Government, will be rapidly intensified.
Finally, I wish to make a fervent appeal to all sections of our society and polity: Let us not communalise the fight against terrorism. Terrorists have no religion. They are enemies of the nation and of humanity as a whole. Let us not imperil the security of India â and, going further, the very unity of India â by going soft in the war against these enemies. This is not a war that any a single party or any single community can win. It is a battle for the survival of India, in which all communities and all political parties are equal stake holders. We wanted to extend our whole-hearted support to the incumbent government for any positive action that it is prepared to take to combat terrorism. Unfortunately, it has not taken even a single initiative in this direction to which we could extend our support.
While enemies of the nation are uniting and coordinating their actions, it is sad that narrow electoral considerations are standing in the way of political parties and governments giving a concerted fight to the menace of terrorism. I do hope that the public opinion in this country will create required pressure for political parties and their leaders to think beyond electoral considerations and fight terrorism with single-minded determination.
One last point. The Navaratri festival has begun. It will conclude on Vijaya Dashami, which symbolizes the victory of Good over Evil. I suggest that, in addition to Ravan Dahan (burning of the effigy of Ravan), let Navaratri pandals all over the country also do Atankvaad Dahan (burning the effigy of the Demon of Terrorism). Let it symbolize our collective resolve to make India terror-free.
With these words, I declare the seminar open and wish it all success.
Murali
October 5th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Arjun,
I told you right, GVL has just confirmed that. My dad was on some official trip in jabalpur 2 weeks back and was very impressed with the basic amenities and road network in MP and he told me that locals told him that most of this had come under the BJP. Dont worry buddy same will happen in Delhi, chhattisgarh and Rajasthan of course. Just waiting to see if EC does delimitation in J&K, if that happens we can add J&K to the rout. Just cant wait to slap this guys. March mein aise savak sikayenge na inko, ki ye log sada keliye rajniti se door hojayenge.
jai Hind
Murali
October 5th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
and one more thing arjun,
it is good that BJP is retaining power in their states, which means they are actually doing good work, but more importantly they will have many more states under their control and they will be in power at the center from march 2009. This will have big effect compared to last time when many states were ruled by congress when BJP was at center like (Raj, MP, Chat, Jharkhand, Bihar, delhi, karnataka). They should now get Maharashtra also, so that the board is clean of congress. damn it, i cant wait.
gujjuman
October 5th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Murali,
How are the things shaping up in tamil nadu??
I think Maharashtra will definitely come in BJP fold next time. Congress is at all time low in maharashtra, but Sharad pawar is still going strong. Also Sharad pawar is not threat as far as central elections are concerned. He will easily shift to NDA if its becomes dominant force in Loksabha election. NCP is also clean compared to SP, BSP, LJP, RJP partners of UPA.
Murali
October 5th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Gujjuman,
TN politics is as usual shady, until last moment nobody can guess the alliances right. I will drive around 2-3 months before elections to see whats up. But it is good if NDA is formed without TN parties. NDA should just be BJP+SS+JD(U)+AGP+BJD+SAD and maybe 5-6 independents. For this BJP should get 200-210. Lets see what happens. But overall congress is wiped out and advani is our PM whatever happens. Can Modi deliver all 26 after delimitation??
gujjuman
October 5th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Worst case scenario for Gujarat is 20 out of 26. Worst case scenario for congress is 2 seats. (1 ahmedabad + 1 bharuch) There are some pockets were muslim votes are dominant.
BJP will have to manage more share in mumbai from Shiv sena, otherwise it will dent prospect of getting more seats in Maharashtra. North Indians will not vote for shiv sena, BJP will have to somehow get the seats were NI are dominant.
Murali
October 5th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Gujjuman,
are u sure that congress will get ahmedabad and bharuch, check the links below
http://www.eci.gov.in/electionanalysis/GE/...partycomp10.htm
http://www.eci.gov.in/electionanalysis/GE/...partycomp23.htm
Looks like these are BJP strongholds.
maybe after delimitation things have changed.
Murali
arjun
October 5th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
LKAâs Vijay Sankalp rallies are attracting large crowds from Maharastra to Assam to UP. Yesterdayâs rally in UP was packed. If this translates to 25 seats in UP, BJP would be through.
been touring interiors of Rajasthan, and indeed the above picture is quite comparable here too. Rajasthan is shining. This becomes apparent if you enter into Raj from UP side (Agra-Bharatpur) or Haryana side (Rewari-Jaipur). Complete contrast. No doubt Vasundhara has done a good job like Modi. However, that does not mean a guaranteed return of BJP. Raj voters are unpredictable. Their priorities, traditionally, have been "caste" and some other similar local parameters, besides the low voter turnouts. Many I casually talked to, said they are undecided, although claimed that the govt has done good work.
Regarding AP -
Now there are too many players and parties and it is good from the perspective of BJP/NDA. All the parties are involved in anti-congressism in the state. Both TDP and Chiranjeevi are going to support NDA if anyone comes to power in the state. It does not matter even if they go to iftar parties and talk about third front etc.
This is based on info from reliable sources.
Mupalla, How many seats do you see for BJP in UP?
Also, how many seats do you think BJP can win in AP?
<!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+Oct 6 2008, 09:14 PM-->QUOTE(kharavela @ Oct 6 2008, 09:14 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Mupalla, How many seats do you see for BJP in UP?
Also, how many seats do you think BJP can win in AP?
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I do not know anything about UP.
In AP, BJP is not a player. However, it has chances in atleast two seats due to delimitation. AP is three cornered contest between Prajarajyam, TDP and Congress with couple of sub-regional outfits. The overall election this time is too close to predict. In all probability whoever wins will definitely be part of the non-congress national coalition (in all probability NDA).
30 seats for BJP in UP and 200 in Lok Sabha.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/127132/BJP-rac...ets-a-flat.html
BJP racing ahead as Congress gets a flat
Dina Nath Mishra
Researchers have analysed human behaviour in a particular set of circumstances. For example: After the near-collapse of the US economy, shareholders behaved in a particular manner and there was a great rush to liquidate shareholding and withdraw money from banks. The same was seen when the BSE sensex tanked below the 11,000 mark. Everybody wants security of body, employment and psychological satisfaction. One can witness tendency of moving towards higher plains in flood-hit areas.
Abraham Maslow, who is considered as one of the topmost psychologists of 20th century, is famous for analysing his theory of hierarchy of needs and political behaviour. He has classified human beings into five groups and arranged them in hierarchical order.
Though all the needs are present in almost all human being at all times, immediate attention is focused on particular unfulfilled and threatened needs. Prevailing situations motivate people to act on priority of their needs. Hit by price rise, generally the poor, salaried persons and people below poverty line will be motivated to vote out the UPA. The section above them does not feel the pinch of price rise as the food basket is within their availability.
Recently there was an all-India survey, which showed that 50 per cent of people were more concerned with rising terrorism. That is why almost 60 per cent people are suffering from this fear-psychosis. It can tilt the voting behaviour of even a larger number of people than that of the class affected by price rise. Even the non-availability of water and electricity may still make them angry against the Government. This accumulated anger of mass level is called the anti-incumbency factor. Today confidence of citizens regarding their safety has become the main concern irrespective of caste and class in cities and villages both.
In a situation like this, traditional voters are swayed by personal consideration factor. Take the case of reservations. 27 per cent reservation to OBCs threatened the career and future of upper class students. They may have forgotten the event but have never forgiven leaders like VP Singh.
Today Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad are harvesting the OBC caste factor. In the 2009 elections there may be shifts in voting patterns because of two mega changes: exorbitant price rise and ever-increasing terror fear. Both these problems have not been tackled by the UPA Government. Common people are cursing UPA. These two factors are going to impact the voting pattern over and above the political grouping of UPA and NDA. Till last year, UPA was definitely ahead of the NDA. The turning point came when Punjab went to Assembly polls.
Price rise and terror factor had the decisive impact on the outcome of the poll. Thereafter electoral results of State after State proved the sway impacting these factors in the voting pattern of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi Municipal Corporation, Gujarat and Karnataka. Going by these trends, the threat of terrorism as well as spiralling price-rise are likely to bring about massive change in the political scenario of the country. Practically, there is no trump card or plus-point with the Congress-led UPA, which can stop its downward slide.
As per general assessment, there seems to be a probability of BJP-led NDA Government coming to power. One may see mathematical side of this electoral politics. There are five States which would give BJP at least 100 Lok Sabha seats -- Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. If it gets a few less seats, these are likely to be compensated by more seats elsewhere in this group of States. Few months back, Gujarat Chief Minister publicly announced that the State would give all the 26 seats of Lok Sabha in the BJP kitty. Even in the worst of times Madhya Pradesh has been contributing 25 to 29 Lok Sabha seats. In the last General Election Karnataka gave 18 seats. Now the story would be different as the State is being successfully run by the BJP.
In the second group of States -- Assam and North-East -- presently BJP has six Lok Sabha seats. In the next election it is likely to reach the double-digit mark. Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi would add at least 65 seats in the BJP kitty. Further, Goa, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Lakshwadeep, Daman Diu may contribute 7 to 10 seats. Finally, comes Uttar Pradesh. For those who are unaware of ground level changes, BJP's organisation and the enthusiasm of its cadre, as witnessed during Moradabad and Bareilly rallies, is an eye opener. LK Advani, NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate addressed these mega rallies signifying chemical change in political behaviour of this province. As per my assessment, BJP can win over 30 seats in UP. The total comes to over 200 Lok Sabha seats.
With the support of NDA allies, the majority mark looks attainable. The momentum is in favour of the BJP and NDA. By the time people cast their votes, this probability may become certainty. BJP-led NDA is coming to power.
BJP will field martyr Mohan Chand Sharma's wife Maya in Assembly elections (Gole Market Constituency)
http://politicsparty.com/delhi_2008_elec...alysis.php
BJP sweeps all 3 seats in by-polls
DH News Service, Dharwad/Belgaum/Mangalore:
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in Karnataka on Monday won all the three Legislative Council seats in the by-polls defeating the Congress-Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) combine.
The voting took place on October 31 in Kodagu, Belgaum and Dharwad districts. BJPâs S G Medappa (Kodagu), Shashikant Naik (Belgaum) and Shivaraj Sajjannar (Dharwad) defeated their Congress rivals backed by the JDS.
The Congress and the JDS joined hands to defeat, what they described as, âcommunal forcesâ, but the BJP candidates won with comfortable margins. Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa described the victory of the party candidates as a referendum on his governmentâs performance.
http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/Nov420...tion=updatenews
Operational similarity between Congress and BJP
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November 4, 2006 Shekhar Iyer, Hindustan Times
Email Author
New Delhi, November 14, 2008
First Published: 00:17 IST(14/11/2008)
Last Updated: 01:56 IST(14/11/2008)
Now ticket sale issue rocks BJP, Rajasthan MP quitsAfter the Congress, it is the BJPâs turn to face cash-for-ticket allegations.
As the party released its second list of candidates for the Rajasthan assembly, Vishvendra Singh, political advisor to Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, resigned from the Lok Sabha, alleging that candidates had been chosen on the basis of money-power.
The BJP axed 12 sitting MLAs.
The former maharajah of Bharatpur and sitting BJP MP said: âI am dismayed by the sale of tickets for the Rajasthan assembly polls and have decided to leave the party.â
His outburst sounded like an echo of the allegations made by senior Congress leader Margaret Alva who complained of discrimination against her son after he was denied a ticket for the Karnataka Assembly polls.
On Wednesday, Alva was sacked from party posts. On Thursday, the Congress removed Yogendra Makwana as head of the party's scheduled castes department. Makwana wanted a probe into Alvaâs charges that tickets were sold.
Reacting to Singhâs allegation, BJPâs Rajasthan in-charge Gopinath Munde said: âHe was demanding too much from the party. We have tried our bit but there is a limit to things.â
Singh will now contest assembly polls against Digambher Singh, a staunch Raje loyalist and industries minister, from the Deeg Kumher constituency in Bharatpur.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Pr...4e29-0f67-48f3-
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<!--emo&  --><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> Perhaps, it all started w/ BSP and now everybody is catching on.
BJP goes Obama way to woo voters, launches TV via IPTV
New Delhi (PTI): Going the Obama way to reach out to millions of people, BJP is now launching âAdvani TVâ via IPTV technique to build the popularity of L K Advani, the partyâs prime ministerial candidate, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.
The party has made arrangements to live telecast all functions to be attended by Advani through the dedicated portal http://www.Lkadvani.In, which is a first in Indian politics.
âIt is an era of IPTV and the party has rightly decided to use the latest technology to cater the coverage of L K Advaniâs campaign trail in the comfort of their homes to every person who wishes to see him live,â partyâs IT cell chief Pradyut Bora told PTI.
Netizens will be able to watch every event of Advani at the click of a mouse.
The party experimented the âAdvani TVâ by telecasting the release of Tamil version of Advaniâs autobiography âMy Country, My Lifeâ in Chennai held Wednesday last.
IPTV as a technology could be new to India, but in the American presidential polls, each and every step right from the candidature acceptance speech to the victory speech of Barack Obama was watched world over through this technology.
maybe 100 people will watch that IPTV in India.
..100 to 100 sahi..every bit helps. IMO, after 6-9 mos of experimenting, a bigger channel wil be launched
Thing is any supporteer can create a video out of this IPTV and show in rural areas. It can become a major source of data for grass root level workers.
Advani promises âmiracleâ
Special Correspondent
CHANDIGARH: Senior BJP leader L.K. Advani on Sunday promised to perform âchamatkarâ (miracle) that would reverse the rising prices, bring in fresh momentum in infrastructure development, interlink the rivers, increase the spread of education, provide better health facilities and effectively curb the menace of terrorism.
Addressing a âVijay Sankalp Rallyâ, organised by the Chandigarh unit of the BJP, Mr. Advani said that if voted to power in the next general election, the NDA would ensure âSu-Rajâ (good governance) which had remained elusive despite India having achieved âSwarajâ (self governance) in 1947. He called upon the youth to come forward and contribute in changing the perception of the âUgly Indian Politician.â
Mr. Advani said the UPA regime at the Centre had followed policies that resulted in a record number of suicides by farmers during the last five years. The much-touted loan waiver scheme had eluded a vast majority of debt-ridden farmers. While the urban infrastructure had begun to decay, the present government had devalued every democratic institution.
The previous NDA government had to face much bigger crisis situations in the form of the Kargil war, international economic sanctions after conducting the Pokhran-II, colossal losses during the Gujarat earthquake and Orissa cyclone.
âNot on a single occasion did we pass on the burden to the common people,â he pointed out. Amid cheers, Mr. Advani said that during the NDA regime, terrorists were not allowed to escape.
He decried the attempt by practitioners of âvote bank politicsâ to link religion with terrorism, especially the latest coinage of âHindu terrorâ.
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<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->the NDA would ensure âSu-Rajâ (good governance)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Now, India really need to end SUR-Raj and let new government bring SU-Raj.
11-17-2008, 09:34 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-17-2008, 09:36 AM by shamu.)
<!--QuoteBegin-Shambhu+Nov 17 2008, 05:20 AM-->QUOTE(Shambhu @ Nov 17 2008, 05:20 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Advani promises âmiracleâ
Special Correspondent
CHANDIGARH: Senior BJP leader L.K. Advani on Sunday promised to perform <b>âchamatkarâ (miracle)</b> that would reverse the rising prices, bring in fresh momentum in infrastructure development, interlink the rivers, increase the spread of education, provide better health facilities and effectively curb the menace of terrorism.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I would suggest that Advani et. al. must be careful about using this type of lingo. These words can be easily used against him, as somebody who doesn't understand what it takes.
My suggestion would be that Advani should point to previous NDA government that brought down inflation in India by systematic measures and highlight that those advantages were squandered by later UPA regime, which caused by serious inflation and current uncertainties. He should say that NDA team is capable of delivering the promises unlike the bunch of foriegn educated economists in UPA.
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