Indian Economy: Growth -3

[Guest]

[size="6"][url="http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7018094587"]India's Central Bank To Buy $10 Billion Bonds From IMF [/url][/size]





Washington, DC, United States (AHN) - The central bank of India will buy bonds worth US$10 billion, issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to an announcement.





The IMF and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's central bank, have signed a deal under which the RBI would purchase up to $10 billion in IMF notes.



"The agreement offers India a safe investment instrument at the same time as boosting the IMF's capacity to help its members to weather the global financial crisis, and to facilitate an early recovery from the worldwide economic crisis," an IMF press statement said.



The IMF can now add these resources to those already available through agreements signed with other members, which contribute toward an increase in IMF resources that was requested in April 2009 by G-20 leaders and the International Monetary and Financial Committee, according to the statement.

[Arun_S]

[url="http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/economy-to-touch-25-trn-in-5-years-sharma/89272/on"]

Economy to touch $2.5 trn in 5 years: Sharma[/url]

Press Trust of India / New Delhi March 23, 2010, 20:43 IST





Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma today expressed confidence that the size of Indian economy is likely to double to $2.5 trillion by 2015.



"We will see India doubling its GDP in the next five years to $2.5 trillion," Sharma said at the 44th convocation of the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT).



India is the second fastest growing economy in the world after China even as the developed economies are just coming out of the shocks of the financial tsunami.



India's GDP was estimated at $1.2 trillion in 2008-09.



Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today expressed confidence the Indian economy would grow by 8.5 per cent in the next fiscal and accelerate to 9 per cent the following year from an estimated 7.2 per cent this fiscal.

[manish]

[quote name='Arun_S' date='23 March 2010 - 10:23 PM' timestamp='1269362747' post='105394']

[url="http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/economy-to-touch-25-trn-in-5-years-sharma/89272/on"]

Economy to touch $2.5 trn in 5 years: Sharma[/url]

[/quote]



This is a very conservative estimate.My guess is that we will reach 2.5T by 2013(march 2014)at most. seeing that inflation is playing Tandav so nominal G.D.P is going to be the proverbial rubber tires that are going to hit the road.Mind u this is also a tad conservative estimate so u can expect it to happen even before.

Another point is currency appreciation.Both America and Europe have literally put china's A$$ on fire to appreciate its currency.If that happens which I am sure will then India will also have to appreciate its currency

though maybe not by that same percentage and then we will see a 2.5T economy by march 2012 max.

[HareKrishna]

India: not a factor

India has always been a country of endless unrealized potential, and it will remain so in the 2010s," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast. "Its diversity in terms of regulations and tensions, its lack of infrastructure and its talented population will give rise to pockets of surprising dynamism. The country will grow, but in a wildly unpredictable and uneven manner; the fantastic expectations will not materialize."



As Zeihan notes, "Whether it's because of a geographic, social, or economic dysfunction, India just -- to put it bluntly -- can't get its sh*t together. India is the country of the future and always will be.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-...a-factor-5

[manish]

[quote name='HareKrishna' date='24 March 2010 - 04:46 AM' timestamp='1269385708' post='105403']

India: not a factor

India has always been a country of endless unrealized potential, and it will remain so in the 2010s," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast. "Its diversity in terms of regulations and tensions, its lack of infrastructure and its talented population will give rise to pockets of surprising dynamism. The country will grow, but in a wildly unpredictable and uneven manner; the fantastic expectations will not materialize."



As Zeihan notes, "Whether it's because of a geographic, social, or economic dysfunction, India just -- to put it bluntly -- can't get its sh*t together. India is the country of the future and always will be.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-...a-factor-5

[/quote]









What was the projection of Stratfor in the decade of 90's.Most commentators were talking of India breaking up ala soviet union. Why is that this time they will be correct?Anyway all this and my projections are just that, projections... The future has to unfold for reality to show itself.

[HareKrishna]

[quote name='manish' date='24 March 2010 - 09:07 AM' timestamp='1269401395' post='105407']

What was the projection of Stratfor in the decade of 90's.Most commentators were talking of India breaking up ala soviet union. Why is that this time they will be correct?Anyway all this and my projections are just that, projections... The future has to unfold for reality to show itself.

[/quote]

the economic history of India show that India alwais grow slower,yet steady.India never had an economic decline.But not masive growth also.

The west part of India will grow faster then eastern part.

[manish]

[quote name='HareKrishna' date='24 March 2010 - 11:02 AM' timestamp='1269408262' post='105411']

the economic history of India show that India alwais grow slower,yet steady.India never had an economic decline.But not masive growth also.

The west part of India will grow faster then eastern part.

[/quote]



HareKrishna ji are u talking of economics or something else. Your statement that "India never had an economic decline" is factually incorrect". Do u know what happened to India post soviet union when we had to pledge our Gold for loan, that was the biggest economic decline our country faced, our currency went from ~ 25 to a dollar to ~45 to a dollar with little to no foreign exchange..What is that : slow economic growth? please read up on facts.



Also after 1991 till recently we have averaged more than 6-1/4% thanks to P.V Narasimha Rao one of our best prime ministers who saved India in many ways. So your statement "that the economic history of India show that India alwais grow slower" is factually incorrect.This is a tremendous rate of growth seeing our buri halaat surpassed only by Japan and china countries of somewhat comparable size.Again I would urge u to talk facts.



I am projecting a growth rate of 7 1/4% + huge inflation + currency appreciation and made certain PROJECTIONS which might or might not come true but instead of coming with any logical reasons u are posting factually incorrect statements backed by claims of dubious sources who have their own agenda and have proved to be wrong in the past.



Perhaps u yearn for the good old days of Traitor Nehru but I would like to remind u that he died many decades ago during whose time we had a growth rate equal to our population growth rate which amounts to actually zero disparagingly called the 'Hindu growth rate'. So we never had a period of consistently slow growth after Independence.



Pls also check out the facts that for the last two fiscal yrs the growth rate of so called BIMARU states have been 11+ % ie more than the growth rate of India and equal to the growth rate of Gujarat only where we have the most dynamic Chief Minister.

[HareKrishna]

[quote name='manish' date='24 March 2010 - 11:47 AM' timestamp='1269410952' post='105413']

HareKrishna ji are u talking of economics or something else. Your statement that "India never had an economic decline" is factually incorrect". Do u know what happened to India post soviet union when we had to pledge our Gold for loan, that was the biggest economic decline our country faced, our currency went from ~ 25 to a dollar to ~45 to a dollar with little to no foreign exchange..What is that : slow economic growth? please read up on facts.





Pls also check out the facts that for the last two fiscal yrs the growth rate of so called BIMARU states have been 11+ % ie more than the growth rate of India and equal to the growth rate of Gujarat only where we have the most dynamic Chief Minister.

[/quote]

i just presented the data

http://www.india-forum.com/forums/index....ntry103792

[Bharatvarsh2]

India's growth is hurt massively by three main things:



1) The cult of democracy



2) Socialist regulations



3) Debilitating growth of the followers of "religion of peace"



The cult results in policies like 33% reservation for women or reservations for minorities because a politician wants to get reelected.



It also results in various socialist schemes like "free tvs" & "free electricity for farmers" during election time.



Indians outside India do okay in most countries which shows that a big part of the problem lies with the Indian system.



I don't think you would have seen Lalit Modi get anywhere with his booming IPL if this was in the 90s where socialism was even more rampant in everyday life. More than likely he would have ended up another failed enterpreneur thanks to the license raj.



In 2010 we still have one state that refuses to move beyond the USSR era & keeps electing commies (Kerala). The economy is a total basketcase and survives on remittances sent from the Gulf but the population of the state refuses to learn from the consequences of their actions.

[Bharatvarsh2]

On a side note its good to see that Mauritius (majority Indian origin pop) has a high rank on Economic Freedom Index, think they used to be lower before. Expect to see an improvement in their PPP.



They need to liberalize even more & cut shitty "free healthcare" socialist schemes to move from middle income to first world.

[manish]

HAREKRISHNA JI POSTED

Year 1-450$

1000-450$-

1500-550$

1700-550$

1820-533$

1870-533$

1884-551$

1900-599$

1933-700$

1950-619$

1960-753$

1970-868$

1980-938$

1990-1309$

2000-1892$

2006-2598$



Conclusion

1 to 1000-stagnation

1000-1500-economic growth(golden age of medieval India)

1500-1700-stagnation(Mughal empire)

1700-1870-decline

1870-1933-growth

1933-1950-decline

1950-2006-growth

The big picture is that India have a slow growth but steady -not big growth rate ,but

also no big declines.



THIS IS NO WAY HAREKRISHNA JI iS IT SOME SORT OF JOKE.I WAS TALKING POST INDEPENDENCE AND U BRING IN 2000 YRS IN A PERVERTED WAY MANIPULATING STATISTICS.



sometimes u talk of decline in 1000 yrs what sort of decline? were we looteed r**ped, killed . converted or what . No answers .

After this huge time scale of 1000 yrs. which u consider as decline u jump to periods of 200 yrs,170 years 56 yrs and brazenly 17 yrs. What sort of comedy tabulation is this. Just to prove your brazenly false and factually incorrect hypothesis u are using terribly massaged statistics.



There is something called common sense and a Hindu of even below average IQ will tell u that before the year 1 we were a flourishing civilization but seems u want to pick the christian calendar as your article of faith.

After the year one it is common knowledge that we had periods of prosperity and intense deprivation which u are conveniently overlooking by fudging these facts and tabulating them in a bizarre manner. This seems that this article whosoever is writing has zero understanding of statistics or tabulation or is brazenly papering over the misfortunes that we have faced since the year 1.



Everybody knows that the past 2000 yrs we have had dramatic declines because of camel riders and goras interspersed with growth. No need to project this bulls***t tabulated statistics just to prove your factually incorrect statements of stable growth.



We are not living in a vacuum, what about comparable statistics of other countries in Europe and china has been bugg**ed the same way since the last many yrs.



These sort of statistics can only convince a illiterate Hindu to provide solace for his bu***r**g in the last 2000 yrs. Maybe not him also.



Finally I projected that India will be 2.5 T economy in 2-3 yrs. Do u have anything worthwhile to debate or going off topic is the only answer u have?

[manish]

[quote name='Bharatvarsh2' date='24 March 2010 - 07:50 PM' timestamp='1269439925' post='105420']

India's growth is hurt massively by three main things:



1) The cult of democracy



2) Socialist regulations



3) Debilitating growth of the followers of "religion of peace"



The cult results in policies like 33% reservation for women or reservations for minorities because a politician wants to get reelected.



It also results in various socialist schemes like "free tvs" & "free electricity for farmers" during election time.



Indians outside India do okay in most countries which shows that a big part of the problem lies with the Indian system.



I don't think you would have seen Lalit Modi get anywhere with his booming IPL if this was in the 90s where socialism was even more rampant in everyday life. More than likely he would have ended up another failed enterpreneur thanks to the license raj.



In 2010 we still have one state that refuses to move beyond the USSR era & keeps electing commies (Kerala). The economy is a total basketcase and survives on remittances sent from the Gulf but the population of the state refuses to learn from the consequences of their actions.

[/quote]





Bharatvarsh2 I totally agree with u on kerala but it is only because of camel riders and xtians who are a very sizeable population in that state.In fact any state with sizeable camel riders will be backwards, only solution is the one that Hussien has followed.These camel riders should be sent to their ideological masters in the gulf with a one way ticket.

[HareKrishna]

[quote name='manish' date='24 March 2010 - 10:32 PM' timestamp='1269449660' post='105423']

it is common knowledge that we had periods of prosperity and intense deprivation which u are conveniently overlooking by fudging these facts and tabulating them in a bizarre manner. This seems that this article whosoever is writing has zero understanding of statistics or tabulation or is brazenly papering over the misfortunes that we have faced since the year 1.





These sort of statistics can only convince a illiterate Hindu to provide solace for his bu***r**g in the last 2000 yrs. Maybe not him also.



Finally I projected that India will be 2.5 T economy in 2-3 yrs. Do u have anything worthwhile to debate or going off topic is the only answer u have?



[/quote]

don't make flame.I posted the source.you bring the real data.

[manish]

[quote name='HareKrishna' date='25 March 2010 - 12:16 PM' timestamp='1269499088' post='105442']

don't make flame.I posted the source.you bring the real data.

[/quote]



It is u who has to do remember.

Finally I projected that India will be 2.5 T economy in 2-3 yrs. Do u have anything to debate or we shelve this discussion and wait for time to show us.

[Capt M Kumar]

From the bottom of my heart (Hariharan PV, Bangalore)



If we consider the datum year of independent India's development activities as 1950, we are in the sixtieth year of our planned developments. Without any hype or attempts to find scape-goats, let us see where we actually stand [please note: I do not accept the various "official" data and statistics; but the following are based on my own personal Research carried on during a period of about 20 years, starting in 1987/88]:



WHERE INDIA STANDS TODAY



1. Our population is about 1, 150 million (One in every sixth person in the world is an Indian)

2. We have over 635, 000 villages, where about 800 million people live, in very difficult conditions

3. Almost 100% of the villages are dilapidated, and over 80% of these regions do not have any infrastructure (electricity and water topping the list of non availabilities)

4. About 450 million people are illiterate, and over 80% of them are in the Northern Indian States (UP and Bihar topping the list)

5. About 650 million people do not earn even $150 per capita, and do not have one full nutritious meal per day for all 365 days

6. About 400 million of our youth (age group 18 to 35 yrs) are either unemployed or under employed (over 95% of these are from villages)

7. Over 350 million children (age group 0 to 9 yrs) are malnourished or do not have any average living conditions (all of them never see a school at all)

8. Although we have about a million “higher educated” youth coming out of the nearly 1000 specialty institutions (including prestigious ones such as IIT's IIM's and IISc), not even 30% of these youngsters get appropriate assignments, based on their training and qualifications



9. 80% of our farmers own less than 2 ha land, and they struggle to get enough water, electricity; and they do not get appropriate seeds, fertilizer, and finally appropriate values for their produce (this is in spite of the Government subsidizing almost all of these for the last 40 years)



10. About 40 years ago, our Agricultural and related Scientific departments wanted the farmers to go for intensive cultivation through indiscriminate use of Chemicals and Fertilizers; but now the Scientists are telling them to go for “organic” farming



11. Our Government is indiscriminately (without long term studies) allowing multinational corporations (mainly American Corporations) to have direct say/ control in our Agriculture, resulting in slow and steady dependence on their dictates (reducing our Science, farm practices etc) into “slave levels”



12. We have annual rainfall that allows percapita water of 3, 500 L per day; yet 75% of India's population do not have clean potable water



13. Our electricity requirement falls short by 30%; in spite of lakhs of crores of rupees having been spent on Wind mills, Solar power and other “hybrids”



14. At least 10 million people are annually affected by floods and related calamities, and nothing concrete is done to help those affected, in spite of huge amounts being earmarked for these calamities; about 5 million amongst those affected either loose all of their belongings and homes or are shifted to far away places to become migrants within ones own country of origin. This has been the case from 1990



15. About 40% of the populations in over 500 Towns/ cities (including about 20 metros) are migrant laborers and others seeking some “jobs"; and 100% of these (about 150 million) personnel are form the most dilapidated villages in Orissa, Bihar, UP, Rajashtan and north eastern states, where most villages have absolutely nothing to support them



16. About 450 million people do not have any modern medical facilities, including primary health support; and this is in spite of lakhs of crores of rupees being spent annually for the same; at the same time, superb facilities do spring up for the 1% elite of this country



17. We boast of about 100 billionaires; about 500, 000 millionaires; and we also boast of about 4 million “rich” Indian Diaspora in US, Canada, Europe and other western nations – all put together are worth over US $500 billions; yet, India does not have even one amongst these to counter the “western-tilted” philanthropy of the likes of Bill Gates from entering India! Almost all the philanthropy works are not intended to answer the problems of Poverty and destitute in India, within Indian needs and conditions [Please note: There are thousands of Good Samaritans doing yeoman's service to the society; but we need to counter these “westerners” from coming in with their brand of philanthropy; for example, when our poor people do not have one meal a day, we talk of serving them with education, vaccines, solar power, water filters and so on. But we have no answer to Poverty]



18. 100% of all our development economics, especially from 1991 onward, cater only to the 350 million middle class (including about 10 million “upper” class) … relegating the lower 800 million people altogether into “uncared class”. The “big” economists gloat over saying that “trickle effects” would make sure that those 800 million “lower level” people are also benefited!!!



19. The last twenty years have seen the worst “farmer suicides”, mainly due to inadequate earnings through farming; about a million farmers have committed suicide during this period, on account of bad debts and related economics problems – a shame on our national agriculture policies; shame on our agriculture science; shame on the entire community who “talk” and “act” for agriculture (including big “award winners”)



20. It is estimated that about 15 million ha of farmlands have been converted into housings, industrial infrastructure or for related non-farm activities during that last two decades. This has resulted in decrease in farm production and increase in farm produce costs; escalating into food inflation of the highest order



21. Although the “twenty” statements above would be seen to prioritize our problems in a general way, the Government of India does not seem to consider even one of these as our real problem; instead, we talk of Nuclear arrangement; Gene technology; Bio-technology; Bio-Fuels; “Higher” education; Exports and Special Economic Zones; International Air Ports; Tourism to attract westerners … and so on ... as if these would solve our "down-to-earth" and mundane probems



HOW DO WE OVERCOME POVERTY IN INDIA?



If India is to overcome poverty, not one of the economic and development paradigms that are now attempted would be able to achieve the same. This is because we are trying to mimic the very “Western Intellectual Traditions” (WIT) that have failed the western world … business and economic models that had their origin in the middle ages of the alchemists, wherein business and economics are to do with maximizing wealth and “returns”, concentrating these within a small group. We have seen, in recent times that this classical business model ultimately destroys the very business, resulting in economic-poverty of majority, increasing the gap between the “rich” and “poor” (the two classes also being created by the very same business).



Business needs to look at arrangements in distributing “wealth” equitably so that the current situation of small pockets of prosperity seen in between huge regions of mass poverty is changed. If we were to create a situation whereby the 600 million people (who now earn about $150) earn at least $750 per annum (average), the incremental Purchasing Power (PP) would have to be a whopping $330 billion! This would be possible only if we have additional businesses of at least $3.3 trillion! We may ask: is this possible? This is necessary and feasible. But, we need to look at the world around us in its natural environmental conditions, and build up a Business-Model, based on natural Renewable Resources (RR). Our new business model would have to work on India's strengths:



a.. We have about 400 million youth-power in villages, who are “available” for appropriate employment



b.. Our RR, in the form of annually renewable non-forest vegetation systems (both agro based and non farm vegetation) are of the order of about 3.3 billion tons (green weight) … (one item Banana stem wastes alone account for over 13, 500, 000 T; there are many other such vegetation systems that are totally wasted now)



c.. We have a cattle wealth of over 400 million



d.. Our annual rainfall is the equivalent of 3, 950 billion cu m (but not even 15% of these have been appropriately tapped)



e.. We have a coastal area across about 6, 500 KM



f.. Our average sunlight insolation ranges from about 4 W/ Sq m/ sec to over 8 W/ Sq m/ sec (averaging about 6 W/ Sq m/ sec)



(Note: Here we have not considered any of the Mineral and other non renewable type of resources)



India would be able to develop as an Economic Force, if we take advantage of the above “strengths” and convert them into Processed Food, Energy, and Engineering Materials, as needed by our own people, through our own efforts. Such conversion utilizing/ recycling RR (renewable resources) would be capable of generating “equitable wealth” in the 635, 000 villages; providing jobs to a total of not less than 400 million people. The “wealth” generation (parallel to the present economic development systems) would also include not less than 50, 000 MW additional power; about Rs.90 trillion worth Food, Energy and engineering materials



These could be showcased through a Pilot Plant that could convert the RR in about 50 ha into energy and engineering materials worth about Rs.15 Cr. Such a Pilot plant would need a seed investment of Rs.6 Cr.



[color="#006400"]Is raising this Rs.6 Cr seed capital for the Pilot plant possible? Would our “rich” Indian diaspora take up the initiative? If it is possible to do so, a small (dedicated) GROUP here would take up the practical implementation works ... Actually India is not a hungry republic ... we seem to be a republic with very few looking at positive methods to work for nation building ... that of POVERTY ALLEVIATION, which is our single biggest problem. This has to change[/color] <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



JAI HIND



Best regards



Hariharan PV



http://www.linkedin .com/in/harihara npv

[agnivayu]

The only reason the countryside is poor is because the government deliberately neglects agriculture. Hopelessness creates a voting bloc on it's own.

Yields are 50% that of China/U.S. per acre. Poor irrigation infrastructure as well. Produce wastage is over 50% due to lack of cold storage. Free-market capitalism is the way to go. India tried socialism and equal distribution of income, it made everyone equally poor. China has far worse income disparity than India, but because they have focused on their countryside and agriculture, rural poverty is much less. Gujarat is doing a great job in that respect and is a role model for the rest of India (such as building check dams etc..)

[Bharatvarsh2]

Agnivayu you know anything about the results of land reforms?



I remember reading that in Bengal they took the lands from productive farmers with a lot of land and gave them to Jyoti Basu's cronies, very similar to what Mugabe did with white farmers or Idi Amin with Indians.



Policies like this bring down farm yields.



As you have said socialism/communism is a failure, the way to success has been shown and if you can't see it even now in 2010 what path helped Taiwan, Singapore etc develop then you truly are blind.



Wealth creation provided that you have a reasonably intelligent and industrious population happens naturally when private property rights are recognized and individual liberty protected (not the cult of democracy which is nothing more than mob rule).



Look at North Korea and South Korea. One country produces Samsung, Hyundai etc and is first world while the other is a basketcase, the difference lies in their economic policies.



Kerala is an Indian welfare state like Sweden and it's also an economic basketcase whose people go to the gulf by the millions to find jobs.



You want poverty alleviation then look to what the Sikhs are doing. Starvation is relatively rare in Punjab because the Gurudwara's give out free food to the needy as langar.



The first priority of Hindus should be to remove all Hindu mandirs from gov't control, look at the vast wealth of Tirupathi why can't we use that to take care of our own instead of letting gov't scum to spend it on funding Muslim & Xtian schools who are bent upon our destruction.

[Bharatvarsh2]

On a sidenote the idiot who wrote that is precisely why India has so much poverty and Indians do ok everywhere except in India itself.



Wealth redistribution ya that's exactly what we need, a model that failed so spectacularly everywhere it was tried.



And the West has decades ago abandoned many of the policies that made it successful.



The US is a giant welfare state (not as bad as Sweden but still pretty bad) today & veering towards socialism with a future that looks like Brazil.



The current crisis was predicted years ago by those nasty capitalists (the real one's i.e) in the US, go on youtube and look up Peter Schiff's predictions about the housing bubble back in 2006 and 2007.

[Bharatvarsh2]

http://www.visualeconomics.com/wp-conten...l-debt.gif

[Capt M Kumar]

Speaking to Indian reporters in Washington before he left, he praised Indian policy makers for their management of the economy. He also said the United States could help the country set up a corporate bond market. Just a few days earlier, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said India needed a well-functioning bond market to help finance $1 trillion in infrastructure investment.



On Tuesday, Mr. Geithner will visit a village bank, and meet with Pranab Mukherjee, the Indian finance minister; Mr. Singh; and Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the deputy chairman of the planning commission, India’s long-range fiscal planning agency.



On Wednesday, he travels to India’s financial capital, Mumbai, for discussions with American financial companies and Indian entrepreneurs. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/busine...gewanted=1