[quote name='Kritavarma' date='24 November 2010 - 06:22 PM' timestamp='1290602674' post='109428']
what mistake ? the cost of not testing is a puny deterretnt that has no credibility. testing has to be done in the next few years to ensure we remain a credible nuk. wpn. state. sanctions are a small and temporary price to pay for this. job opportunities/market will be down for 2-3 yrs at most. if we test at the brink of a 2 frnt sitn, it wll be too little, too late. imagine if ABV thought like you: we would have still been a non-nuke state effectively. testing should be the top national priority till we develop a credible TN wpn. only the scientific fraud RC thinks otherwise. countries that get nukes frm elsewhere are in a different position.
Regarding the losses from testing:
1. Permanent seat: of what use is it if the price to pay is strategic castration ? In any case, for how long can a thermonuclear armed large country be kept out of it if the security council/ UN is to have any teeth whatsoever ?
2. Nuke deal: This is just a device to suffocate the strategic program. The sooner it is abrogated, the better. Even better if it is nullified by our nuclear testing.
3. FDI :yes, halt/slow down for two-three years, like it happened after 1998. Did we collapse ?
The gain of a credible deterrent more than compensates for any losses incurred by testing. We should not become a south korea - thinking every moment about whatit has to lose, and therefore unable to react to grave NoKo provocations.
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I don't want to derail the missile thread with discussions on economy, but to me, India has to be both an economic power and military power. I don't need to remind any one about the collapse of super military power soviet union. Disregarding PS in UN, Nuke deal, and FDI (spinal cord of India and China's growth) can pull back India compared to China by 30 yrs (India is already behind China, around 15 yrs in terms of economy)
"the cost of not testing is a puny deterretnt that has no credibility"
You cannot summarize India's 2 nuclear tests in one line by making a very general statement like our "DDMs"
The main concern was about TN (Thermo-nuclear warhead)
But you cannot write off Fusion boosted fission warheads.
FBF warheads (from Arun's article on Shourya)
1000 kg Vintage FBF warhead with yield of 200 kilotons ( 10 times the effect on Nagasaki)
550 kg FBF warhead with yield of 150 kilotons (yet to be field tested but not so complex as TN warhead)
180 kg FBF warhead with 17 kilotons yield (we can get Hiroshima effect and each missile can smoke 50,000 to 100,000 people in a city)(Not exactly a tiny deterrent)
Missiles
Shourya Hypersonic Missile (under production since early 2009 according to "Missile Success" by TS Subramanian article published on Frontline magazine)
http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2526/s...609400.htm
1900 kg @ 180 FBF warhead (Just 10 missiles can take out at least half a million to 1 million people in a city)
Instead of depending on 1 missile with 200 kilotons TN warhead, how about sending 10 or more missiles for each city in China? Our stable economy can afford mass production of any missile let alone this thin beauty.
Agni III with 3 stages (From Arun's a credible way to deterrent article)
8000 km @ 1500 kg payload ( 8 x 180 kg FBF warheads) with 140 kilotons yield. 8 MIRVs equivalent to 8 missiles. China can be targeted anywhere from India.
How about launching 10 missiles instead of one? There you go, you got 1.4 megatons effect on a single city.( It is better than depending on one missile)
Yes, we need bigger class nuclear submarines in large numbers (again India can afford, if a strong economy can be sustained)
(You cannot whine about cost,since you are even ready to nuke test without thinking about consequences to economy)
All those talk about minimum deterrence is for western non-proliferation people. India is stronger and its policy makers are smarter than you think. I am sure DDMs know that too but they have their own business to worry about.
I am for TN re-testing too but not at the cost of soaring economy which can lift, millions of Indian people out of poverty if 9% growth rate can be sustained
Patience. Time will come. Even a prolonged conventional war with Pakistan and China would give us a reason to re-test TN. We need a strong reason to test.
India is also moving towards Hypersonic Boost Glide Missiles which can play a role in conventional warfare too.
Shourya
Agni II (AT)
K15 and K4 Hypersonic missiles (who knows, K4s and K15s with conventional warheads might even arm our nuclear attack subs (SSNs)
US already did that with their sub-sonic cruise missiles (Tomahawk or whatever it is called) and of course Prompt Global Strike Program is still out there.
Don't forget that Israel is also called a nuclear power. Did they ever conduct a nuclear test? (Well, you can say that the US tested for Israel but there is no proof, just like Chinks tested for porkis)
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