01-28-2006, 01:56 PM
27th JAN 11:24 hrs IST
<b>Red bastion of Bengal under threat</b>
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The two allies in New Delhi, the Congress and the Communist parties, are facing a piquant situation in the Left Front-ruled West Bengal, which will go to the polls in May.
<b>
For the first time since the Left secured a seemingly unshakeable grip on power in the state in 1977, there are signs that the comrades may face a stiff challenge, putting a question mark over their formidable red bastion.</b>
The leftist electoral success in the state was based on the continuing disarray in the opposition camp, comprising the Congress and the breakaway group of former Congressmen in the Trinamool Congress.
The dividing line between these two parties was strengthened by the Trinamool's alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress's main adversary in New Delhi. But there are signs that the Trinamool may now distance itself from the BJP in order to form an anti-Left Front alliance with the Congress.
What is more, the Trinamool's temperamental leader, Mamata Banerjee, may be willing to accept Congress veteran and Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee as her leader in West Bengal, ending a long-standing political enmity.
An alliance of this nature can pose a major challenge to Left hegemony if only because the combined percentage of votes of the two parties has always been fairly high at about 40 percent. Moreover, Mukherjee's stature as a top-ranking political figure at the national level will be an asset to the anti-Left combine.
But assessments of this nature may go wrong because of a peculiar complicating factor. Although the Congress and the communists are allies in New Delhi, there are sharp differences between them on the country's economic policy.
The Left, led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), is opposed to what it regards as the Manmohan Singh government's preference for 'neo-liberal' policies, supposedly dictated by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
But curiously, since West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya belonging the CPI-M follows virtually the same line in his state as the government in New Delhi, he is a favourite of Manmohan Singh, who has described him as a model chief minister.
What this public declaration of support has done is to queer the pitch for the Congress in West Bengal, for the party cannot oppose the communists in the state when its Prime Minister is an admirer of the chief minister.
However, the complexities do not end here.<b> Bhattacharya's 'neo-liberalism' has aroused the ire of the other parties in the Left Front like the Communist Party of India, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Forward Bloc. </b>They endorse the traditional anti-capitalist position taken by the CPI-M in New Delhi, which also has a few supporters among the party hardliners in West Bengal.
It may not be difficult, therefore, for the Congress-Trinamool alliance to exploit these cracks in the Left Front. But such tactics may not yield more than marginal dividends because of the popularity of the chief minister.
The honesty shown by the latter in admitting that the mistakes made by the communists in the past led to the flight of capital from West Bengal appears to have considerably bolstered his personal position. His attempts to woo domestic and foreign investors have also been widely appreciated in a state that once held a foremost position in the industrial and commercial field and regrets the regression that has taken place in recent years.
But even if Bhattacharya's popularity gives an edge to the leftists, they may still face major hurdles on the road to power if the Election Commission demonstrates in West Bengal the same firmness it showed in Bihar to prevent rigging.
Already there are signs that the commission will crack down on any evidence of suspicious partisan behaviour by poll officials in the state. In a letter to the state government, it has pointed out the 'glaring irregularities' in the issue of identity cards and called upon the officials to fix the responsibility for the lapses.
<b>
There have been allegations in the past that the communists indulged in what has been called 'scientific rigging' to turn the verdict in their favour. The alleged rigging comprised manipulation of the voters' list and intimidation of the voters, mainly with the help of the large number of government employees, most of whom are communist sympathizers. </b>
But after the success of the commission in ensuring a fair poll in Bihar, it is believed that such tactics will not work in West Bengal this time. The very fact that there will be a genuinely impartial supervision of the polls is bound to encourage the political opponents of the Left to become more assertive in their campaigning than before.
<b>They may also be able to stop the practice of booth jamming by the leftists that made many voters turn away.</b>
<b>Although the Left Front is widely expected to win</b>, any closing of the gap between it and its opponents will have interesting consequences. Since much of the credit for the Left's success will go to Bhattacharya, he will be in a better position to pursue his pro-capitalist economic line despite what his Marxist comrades in New Delhi may say. This, in turn, will bring him closer to Manmohan Singh.
With Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar also looking for investments, the eastern region under the two relatively young chief ministers may pave the way for an economic upturn.
<b>Red bastion of Bengal under threat</b>
- -
The two allies in New Delhi, the Congress and the Communist parties, are facing a piquant situation in the Left Front-ruled West Bengal, which will go to the polls in May.
<b>
For the first time since the Left secured a seemingly unshakeable grip on power in the state in 1977, there are signs that the comrades may face a stiff challenge, putting a question mark over their formidable red bastion.</b>
The leftist electoral success in the state was based on the continuing disarray in the opposition camp, comprising the Congress and the breakaway group of former Congressmen in the Trinamool Congress.
The dividing line between these two parties was strengthened by the Trinamool's alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress's main adversary in New Delhi. But there are signs that the Trinamool may now distance itself from the BJP in order to form an anti-Left Front alliance with the Congress.
What is more, the Trinamool's temperamental leader, Mamata Banerjee, may be willing to accept Congress veteran and Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee as her leader in West Bengal, ending a long-standing political enmity.
An alliance of this nature can pose a major challenge to Left hegemony if only because the combined percentage of votes of the two parties has always been fairly high at about 40 percent. Moreover, Mukherjee's stature as a top-ranking political figure at the national level will be an asset to the anti-Left combine.
But assessments of this nature may go wrong because of a peculiar complicating factor. Although the Congress and the communists are allies in New Delhi, there are sharp differences between them on the country's economic policy.
The Left, led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), is opposed to what it regards as the Manmohan Singh government's preference for 'neo-liberal' policies, supposedly dictated by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
But curiously, since West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya belonging the CPI-M follows virtually the same line in his state as the government in New Delhi, he is a favourite of Manmohan Singh, who has described him as a model chief minister.
What this public declaration of support has done is to queer the pitch for the Congress in West Bengal, for the party cannot oppose the communists in the state when its Prime Minister is an admirer of the chief minister.
However, the complexities do not end here.<b> Bhattacharya's 'neo-liberalism' has aroused the ire of the other parties in the Left Front like the Communist Party of India, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Forward Bloc. </b>They endorse the traditional anti-capitalist position taken by the CPI-M in New Delhi, which also has a few supporters among the party hardliners in West Bengal.
It may not be difficult, therefore, for the Congress-Trinamool alliance to exploit these cracks in the Left Front. But such tactics may not yield more than marginal dividends because of the popularity of the chief minister.
The honesty shown by the latter in admitting that the mistakes made by the communists in the past led to the flight of capital from West Bengal appears to have considerably bolstered his personal position. His attempts to woo domestic and foreign investors have also been widely appreciated in a state that once held a foremost position in the industrial and commercial field and regrets the regression that has taken place in recent years.
But even if Bhattacharya's popularity gives an edge to the leftists, they may still face major hurdles on the road to power if the Election Commission demonstrates in West Bengal the same firmness it showed in Bihar to prevent rigging.
Already there are signs that the commission will crack down on any evidence of suspicious partisan behaviour by poll officials in the state. In a letter to the state government, it has pointed out the 'glaring irregularities' in the issue of identity cards and called upon the officials to fix the responsibility for the lapses.
<b>
There have been allegations in the past that the communists indulged in what has been called 'scientific rigging' to turn the verdict in their favour. The alleged rigging comprised manipulation of the voters' list and intimidation of the voters, mainly with the help of the large number of government employees, most of whom are communist sympathizers. </b>
But after the success of the commission in ensuring a fair poll in Bihar, it is believed that such tactics will not work in West Bengal this time. The very fact that there will be a genuinely impartial supervision of the polls is bound to encourage the political opponents of the Left to become more assertive in their campaigning than before.
<b>They may also be able to stop the practice of booth jamming by the leftists that made many voters turn away.</b>
<b>Although the Left Front is widely expected to win</b>, any closing of the gap between it and its opponents will have interesting consequences. Since much of the credit for the Left's success will go to Bhattacharya, he will be in a better position to pursue his pro-capitalist economic line despite what his Marxist comrades in New Delhi may say. This, in turn, will bring him closer to Manmohan Singh.
With Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar also looking for investments, the eastern region under the two relatively young chief ministers may pave the way for an economic upturn.