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BJP Future - 4
#9
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>The reborn BJP casts its shadow on PM!</b>

By P. Raman

How quickly has the political dynamics undergone a shift in the Capital’s corridors of power. The signals have been sharp and clear, yet few among us have even noticed the change which will have stunning consequences on the Manmohan Singh establishment’s ability to push ahead with its controversial initiatives.

The PMO was quick to sense the troubles and so some old guard at 10 Janpath with sharp political antenna while the rest of the political class spent the time on tapping and CDs.

For a year and half, the Left held the balance of power in Delhi. However, despite the love-hate relationship, the PM has learnt to live with the Left. Now even before settling down in his chair and constituting his new team, BJP president Rajnath Singh has caused deep worries for the PMO. It is now hurriedly reworking some of its policies, some with serious foreign policy spin-off.

<b>For, all its calculations will go haywire if a BJP recast on the pre- 1996 Parivar agenda of cultural nationalism, swadeshi (or economic nationalism) and Hindutva emerges on the political scene. </b>

Each move by the reborn BJP after L.K. Advani’s exit does indicate this distinct possibility. Such a posture will force the Manmohan Singh government drop many of the policies on which he has been waging a bitter cold war with the Left.

Fear of a confluence, not functionally, of ideas on the reform and foreign policy initiatives between the two extremes on the opposite polar is very much real for the Manmohan Singh Government.

Watch the alacrity with which the new BJP chief acted to reassert the original RSS agenda. The party came out with a scathing attack on the prime minister for his `midnight betrayal’ on the issue of voting at IAEA on Iran without taking the nation into confidence.

On January 6, the new BJP damned the government for offering to permit individual US Congressmen have the details of separation of India’s nuclear and civilian use facilities. Instead, the PM should have first taken the people of India into confidence on the details.

The next day, party spokesman attacked the government for cutting back food subsidies for the poor. It, the party said, was the `beginning of the end of the dismantling of the public distribution system.’ Then came the condemnation of the government’s failure to announce increase in minimum support prices for wheat.

On nuclear agreement with the US, the new leadership encouraged Yashwant Sinha who had serious policy differences with the Advani-controlled BJP, to go ahead with another attack.<b> “Nothing should be done that will jeopardize India’s position as a nuclear power,” Sinha said echoing the known RSS position on the issue.
</b>
If the new BJP persists with such a strident line, it will drastically change the power dynamics at the Centre. <b>The PMO’s concern over the likely political backlash of an RSS campaign on the nuclear accord at home is too obvious. And that is precisely what is happening after the Rajnath Singh takeover. </b>

Chidambaram’s bravado apart, the PMO was quick to put on hold the hike in PDS food grains prices. The moment the second largest party backs a Left demand, it will have a steamroller effect. Hence the DMK, JD(U) and even the PM’s own party fell in line.

The RSS-controlled BMS is no more hamstrung by the old NDA syndrome, and has begun publicly sitting with other Left TUs. It even formally signed the strike call by the other unions for January 20. <b>The Left is not very happy to be seen with a communal outfit. But they did so after accounting for the snowballing political advantages of such actions. </b>  <!--emo&Big Grin--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->

How long can we pretend to be unaware of such strong political signals that came in such a short time? <b>Let there be no doubt that the new BJP under the RSS control will be different from its expediency-centred previous incarnation. </b>

The new BJP is set to play agitational politics to educate the ranks and keep them active. BJP leaders persistently sidelined by the Advani durbar wishfully refer to the `new enthusiasm’ among the ranks about turning it into a livewire organization.

All these years, they were disallowed to assail the government policies that affected those among whom they live and work. So the party’s demands on the food subsidy, PF rates and surrendering the `nuclear pride’ to foreigners have all provided them with a whiff of fresh air.

<b>Continuous hard work at the ground level, rather than last minute helicopter-borne poll campaign by a few bright leaders, alone can mobilize people round the BJP. This is the new line. </b>

As of now, the PM side is heavily banking on two possible lifesavers the continued invisible cooperation to the government from L.K. Advani as opposition leader and the morality crisis gripping the RSS establishment.

The ongoing CD scandals involving parivar stalwarts have certainly delayed the process of structural and policy reform in BJP. But it is too early to predict what shape this will take.

However, the clash of interests between the Advani camp and the new BJP does provide some solace to the PM. The BJP parliamentary party in both houses is totally controlled by Advani and his proteges.

Can the BJP and RSS effectively impose their new pro-active policies on him? It may take a few more weeks to know the exact position. Even after the 2004 rout, Advani has been avoiding straight criticism of the UPA’s economic and foreign postures.

Hence it has been concentrating on side issues like the tainted ministers, governors’ actions, etc bypassing the PM’s policy decisions affecting the people.

In RSS circles it is alleged that Advani has an understanding with the business and foreign lobbies to lent silent consent to the PM’s policies. This was perhaps what had made Meghnad Desai to lament this week about the collapse of a ten-year ‘grand coalition’ of the two major parties.

The new BJP has no such baggage. The cleavages are already visible on a number of issues. On Wednesday Rajnath Singh had hinted at the BJP attending the speaker’s meeting on Parliament’s rights. But same day after a meeting at Vajpayee’s residence, V.K. Malhotra described the speaker’s move `inappropriate’.

While the party chief wants firm action on the MPs caught on camera, the Advani side had resented the Parliament decision. These are not healthy signs of a party struggling to reinvent itself.

More crucial, will the RSS be able to bring the powerful parliamentary wing down to its own post-Mumbai agenda? On this will depend the real thickness of the BJP shadow over PM.

http://www.samachar.com/features/040206-features.html

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